Topic: What do you think the effects of soaring prices and fiat depreciation is on BTC? (Read 419 times)

I have no idea what you're talking about.
I'm one of the guys who is actively criticizing Russia for ignoring the laws with the invasion of Ukraine, how can you say I'm supporting such a violation when I'm against it and expressed so it even on this topic? I don't think there is a single person in his right mind here who is supporting this!
It's probably because we're discussing relatable issues on two topics and you or I have maybe misquoted each other somewhere!

In other words you are admitting to supporting an act of terror and violation of international human rights law and the violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.
That shed some light on your comments so far.

Had a serious laugh on this one!!!



Soleimani, is that you? Oh yeah, you can't be, fortunately for eveyone.
Half a billion dollars for two spies? Seriously???
Again with those numbers when you claimed an Iranian rocket destroyed more property than what the entire damn Burj Khalifa costs?
When I read stuff like this I wonder why do you even try and disguise it as a normal economical discussion.


It was over 100$ from 2011 to 2015, it was over 130$ in 2008, Europe is still here as you can see, and still being able to produce stuff. Like those 25 billions of planes, Iran has bought from us since they run out of ducks?  
I love how when it comes to some facts you want to show off you go for long terms but when that doesn't work here you simply share the smallest timeline to fit your story. Europe is more used to oil in the 60-80 than to oil at 30, and btw prices below 40$ for Brent happened only for 4 months in 15 years.


Of course, the thing is irrelevant because it doesn't fit what you want to paint.
Bottom line is that despite the investors putting their every penny in BTC we are still just 2x from the previous ATH from 2017, so that might raise a few questions.
Second, you're forgetting something, why is it going down from November when there is an incentive to grow even further? Why has it lost 40% since then?


Theory? What theory?
I was telling you the prices are lower now than then!
How can prices be lower when you think people are putting more money into crypto?
What I did is an observation of a real fact, it's your turn to come up with a theory for it on how prices for something can go down when there is more demand and less offer.

The main topic is effects of "soaring prices and fiat depreciation is on bitcoin price". The part about $200 per oil barrel is mentioning some possibilities that are discussed among analysts. I didn't think a detail would mislead some readers to focus on that part and ignore the topic.

A lot of interesting things actually. But only if you are not zoomed in one short term volatility.
[I'm not an oil market analyst so these are just my thoughts.]
The recent events proved once again that there is a concerning level of oil (gas, etc) shortage in the world otherwise those who kept threatening Russian sanctions would have moved ahead and actually sanctioned Russia's energy exports.
The global spare oil production capacity has also been shrinking that is going to continue being a contributor to increasing oil prices.

Regardless of the recent short term volatility the oil price has been rising for a long time. It was about $20 mid 2020 and kept on rising in the past 2 years and it was about $90 before Russian invasion even began (reminder: long term). Interestingly this 350% rise is something that some people don't want to see.

The recent short term volatility is not so different from what we see (maybe in an exaggerated way) in bitcoin. The emotional market behavior doesn't define the overall trend.
For example the jump was the emotional response to a couple of events one of which was Russian invasion and the media's super coverage. Similarly the panic sell is the emotional response to a couple of events including the Russian negotiation and the news about UK buying 2 of their spies from Iran for half a billion dollar that signals possibility of Iran's oil coming back to European markets.

I respect your opinion but as I explained my observation of inflations is different. I have always seen enough number of people investing their fiat into certain assets that actually increases their price.

LONG TERM price from February 2021 to April went up and reached a new ATH. The 16% drop in last week of February is irrelevant since risen costs of everything didn't go back to normal after that week whereas bitcoin price kept rising for about 3 months.
The fact that your theory doesn't work for the February case, you can't use it for November either even though price hasn't gone back up yet.

This was what I was thinking when we first reached 64k and then dropped during the summer period, but then in October it reached 68k again. So, we already had a 50% drop and then another 2x or more in a single year. Which made me question if we are in the bear market cycle of the market right now or could that change constantly?

I am not saying that it will change, I mean it could surely change and go to 60k+ too, but could stay here for another year as well and wait for the next halving. Hopefully we would be more like 2021 where we would go up without waiting for the halving, that would be a lot better to be involved instead of waiting for the next halving.

Bitcoin might not surge like it did during 2020 and 2021 because the bear cycle might be starting. But ZOOM OUT, it might actually give us plebs another golden opportunity to buy near the 200-weekly SMA, which Bitcoin has been crashing through during bear cycles. That's the only DIP I like.

Even if somehow it hits 200 bucks, which I believe it will not and it is already dropping under 100 very fast (104 last I checked) from all the way at 120+, I still think that it will be recovered before the war ends.

I mean USA already found another supplier, and west will find it as well, and china won't be able to buy all oils from Russia, all of these will end up with a better result in the short term as well as long term as well. This is why I believe that we are in a situation where things are looking better. I mean it is not as good as we want, but it is definitely not going to stand like this for too long.

The topic was about the imaginary $200 for the barrel of oil that will bankrupt Europe, in case you've forgotten your first phrase of the starting topic.
And I've already shown you the two scenarios that in theory cold boost the price there as well as why they will fail, a thing that you miraculously again avoided, since it doesn't fit your we're all doom and Iran is a global superpower scenario!

Btw, what happened to the oil price lately?


You're underestimating the poverty levels in the world always and you forget that bitcoin as much as you hate it is a commodity that is basically traded in dollars.
For a guy that lives with 30000 rubles and managed to put aide 8 000 inflation at 20% will munch 5000 of them and the exchange rate will further drop his investments from $130 to $20. Now, do this for somebody who only managed to put 5% aside, they will not be able to invest, they will have to sell to survive.
With everything that is basic for living everywhere in the world the amount of money people afford to invest is going down the drain while the amount of money they have to pull from under the sofa is growing. Common, use logic!


Do I honestly have to put a printscreen for the bitcoin price chart since the first jump in inflation in the US in Europe?
The first jump happened in February 2021 and the second in November...how did the price fare from February 2021?
Where is that buying power-driven by millions seeking refuge from inflation?

My opinion in this is it won't affect much on Bitcoin but if we talk about it in the global market, there we can see shooting prices in all goods and most particularly in oil prices. I see it going worse if the war continues and more people suffer the impact of the conflicts.

But on the crypto side, Bitcoin prices remain calm and growing. Even the war still going on and there is fiat money devaluation, crypto investors will find their way to invest. We don't have to worry about the situation, this can actually be resolved so I believe that investing in Bitcoin is still safe.

We all know that environmental issues affects economy and the same is applicable to the Bitcoin, so from my observation and the looks of bitcoin fluctuations this period, it's seems that Bitcoin regulations starting early this year is showing categorically that Bitcoin is in Flux, saying a particular stages of bitcoin increment and Bitcoin acceleration will get to a specific point in price is just like assumptions, because since 2022 Bitcoin has not done well in price like last year regulations or increase in price, so I'm expecting Bitcoin to get nice increase by next year

The Russians boast that they sell quite enough gas and oil despite the sanctions, and how could it not be when the whole EU depends on their gas, and China, with which they do business normally, can easily buy everything that others do not want.


Sanctions have no effect in the short term, and some analysts say it would take years for Russia to feel them in the right way. Russians are finding holes everywhere, so despite the ban on passenger planes, they continue to fly across the EU using the so-called "Serbian backdoor", which has not imposed sanctions on Russia. What does the EU say about the behavior of a country negotiating EU accession? Nothing, they pretend not to be aware of how someone is undermining their sanctions, if they can be called sanctions at all.

If by West you mean US then Russia wasn't really exporting that much oil to US in first place for this sanction to have a big effect. The rest of the "West" haven't sanctioned Russian oil as far as I know and they are still buying it.
In fact almost all sanctions against Russia have been silly so far like banning Russian cats and stuff like that.

The current oil shortage is artificially created by the western sanctions imposed over Russian.
There might be a short term oil shortage in the western world(despite the fact that the western countries have some oil reserves).This will pump the oil prices in the western world.On the other hand,Russian oil price are dropping,because Russia cannot sell it's oil to the west and China cannot fully replace the western oil buyers.The war will end some day and Russia has to sell the oil to the west.
Long story short,I don't expect the oil prices to hit 200 USD.
All the "Bitcoin price will go up,because money printers go brrr..." mantras sound really compelling,but this simply isn't happening in the recent weeks.Perhaps the BTC traders are too scared of the war in Ukraine and all that BS about World War 3/nuclear war and a new great depression.The fear will continue to dominate the BTC market,so no fiat money printers can pump the BTC price right now.

The point I keep saying from before. Think even in 2020 when economists were predicting a recession to rival or even outstrip the Great Depression, leading to all the talk about Bitcoin rising like a phoenix, I couldn't see it. Yes, it "rose" from the ashes of the great banking collapse a decade ago, but when bills go up and food becomes dearer, people are going to be selling their gold, Bitcoin, dig into their savings, cut down on DCA. Hungry mouths are loud. The first victims are regular Joes and their modest BTC holdings.

Now after the war involvement of Russia against Ukraine had influence the oil price more.When the oil price boost up, surely in turn increase the price for the transport.Transport price which further include the variation in the commodity price.The commodities like fruits, vegetables and food grains.


Now the price of bitcoin and other altcoin was not volatile.So this is best time to inverse your money for the long term for good benefits. The price of bitcoin gonna increase double of current value after the Inflation dramas.

All of those things (transport, groceries, rent, oil, etc etc) caused the fiat to be less valuable and that is correct. However since it became less valuable, people needed more of it to pay for their stuff. This resulted with nothing great for us, not bad but not great neither.

The main reason is that the amount of people who bought bitcoins to store their value ended up being a little bit equal to the people who needed to cash out so they can pay for stuff. This is not exactly 1 to 1 ratio but at the same time the difference is not staggering which is why I believe that there wasn't really that much of a difference between the two that caused the price to go big in any direction.

I would agree with this thinking that people have an understanding of what Bitcoin really is and how it can help them become more financially independent, but I don't think there is a global awareness of that at the moment. If we take into account that according to some estimates there are at least 100 million people in the world who invest in cryptocurrencies (meaning not exclusively in Bitcoin), and even if we double that number to 200 million - globally very few people are willing to invest in Bitcoin.

In times of inflation and wars, people have been very careful with their money so far, I wonder if it is the same now or they will start to think differently.


The beginning of the year was not promising in that regard, but it seems to me that we should not expect any spectacular things in terms of price in the current conditions. I think it's good that the price stays stable in the range of $35k to $45k, and that upper limit so far shows very high resilience. It is difficult to say what will happen with the war and how drastic the inflation will be, and the price of Bitcoin will depend a lot on it.

Where did you get that from?!
I don't even see the world as East/West even though I use those terms because that's the language people understand.

In a way this is also my conclusion. By all logic and history I expected bigger rises or at least the beginning of them in March but when I look at the market sentiment, the manipulation and the ups and downs of past 4 months I can only expect more sideways while market participants remain undecided.
What I'm intently watching is the events I mentioned in OP and their effects on bitcoin price.

There is no denying that, my point is that investors have a "basket" that contains multiple assets. In the past years bitcoin has been part of that basket, specially since bitcoin market has never followed any other markets.

To be honest, currently investors are still hedging to safer investment assets such as Gold and Silver because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and that has also made world oil prices rise drastically.

I think that currently investors are not very interested in bitcoin because the volatility is quite high and the Fed will increase interest rates, because it makes Bitcoin's purchasing power decrease and it also makes investors more careful to put their money into certain assets.

I can't expect much for the price of bitcoin in 2022 because a lot of drama is not over yet.

for the issue of fluctuations and fears in the energy market may have an impact on this case, because oil is a much needed energy source for now, when this happens and gets worse, maybe there crypto in general will be affected more, but this will take time, and I think in the future if this case of tension escalates and crypto is not affected more, then the achievement of new ATH specifically for bitcoin will be even more likely

For me short-term - mid-term, I am expecting a crypto market winter where the price of Bitcoin or other altcoins will be in sideways, I am not expecting again a huge dump just like what happened for the past few years. With all events like this, especially the inflation, Bitcoin is the key for it, and most people for sure starting to seek some solution for what we are experiencing now and they will start to look at Bitcoin and they start to learn why Bitcoin is one of the solutions of fiat depreciation.

Bitcoin should not be tagged as safe haven since the price is very volatile and no assurance for the future price of Bitcoin. The value of money will always devaluate because of the cost of living and since some of our resources are limited as well especially on a 3rd world country, there’s a higher possibility for the big inflation as the war continues. Bitcoin should stay as what it is, and should not fall to any centralized system, the planning of US regulations are alarming for me.

Maybe not all, but a lot of them will notice the crypto market as possible alternative to invest their assets.
Some will still stick to tangible assets like precious gems, real-estate assets.
We can't expect everyone to get involved with crypto because some of them have no idea how to transact with crypto.
Though some will try their hands on crypto because of what they are reading from the news, which can drive more adoption.

+1 , the devaluation will always there no matter what , that is the nature of money itself.

Just like the inflation, that's why bitcoin invented.
Isn't it as a money revolution as well as an inflation hedge, no? People will always run into bitcoin from now on when they looking for a safe haven from such uncertainity of depreciation / inflation.

This is your problem, always your hate for the western world pushes to analyze situations in a way to arrive at the conclusion you want not at the obvious one.
The Arab nations tried to play this game and force the US in a corner, ended up with the US becoming the biggest oil producer, the URSS tried this policy also but ended up in collapse, simply put it never works! Thta's reality!

There are two and only two scenarios if Russia cuts the oil flow to Europe:
- Russia cuts the oil flow completely, ending up more broke than the USSR, with more enemies and a fraction of the economy the Union had and all Europe has to do is what? Well, pay more than other oil importers, and since the price of gasoline doesn't matter in terms of the PPP indicator behind which most 3rd world countries hide their poverty, who is going to afford gas at 3$, the average European making $1200 or the average Indian making $200? Plus in the case oil goes, there is a lot of oil that is not pumped in a lot of countries because it wasn't economically viable to do so but it will at constant prices over 100$
-second scenario, far simpler, Russia cuts the oil to Europe and sells it to China. All the oil exporters that sell 6m barrels a day to China are pushed obviously out and they will, in turn, sell it to Europe. Simple as that!

Plus, there are already cracks in the war against the western nazis, Maduro seems to be kept to ramp up production and sell to the evil capitalist, he might like he loves those useless green bills.


Yeah right!
You could look at the price chart and then look the rush of investors selling bread and MRE for BTC.
Bitcoin is down -10% on the 30 days interval and 30% on YOY.

Again, analysing facts in such a way to arrive to your already established conclusion is NOT analysing, is wishful thinking!

Really a hedge against inflation? For the individual hodling for that long and suffering all the inflation effect ? Or a hedge generally for bitcoin itself ? To this it will be difficult that we can analyse bitcoin price with inflation for that long. Inflation maybe be higher or lower at that such a time but fiat is even different from bitcoin. Buying a btc now in expectation to hedge inflation in the future isn't the purpose of bitcoin.

My idea is that there can be money devaluation which is normal right from when fiat was created in a way to help the economy, even all the world are experiencing fiat devaluation as a result of Covid-19, even the war between Ukraine and Russia may contribute more to this which can take years.

But what is still getting me confused is that we do not know what will be bitcoin all-time-low from 2020 to 2024 would be, if the price of bitcoin is decreasing, it will be more profitable for people that buy at the lower price (but waiting can be a way someone can miss the next bull run).

In long term speculation, if someone can hold bitcoin for long, like for 2, 3 or more years, buying during this time will not be a bad idea at all, but there can still be more downturn. With $69000 all-time-high, bitcoin has reduced in price to $39000, if someone buy bitcoin now and hold it for long and if he is not panic during downturn, but smiles and waiting for bull run, certainly bitcoin will reach all-time-high and this will be an hedge against inflation.

Yeah, the effects haven't been that big so far but the price fluctuations and fear in the energy market was also never this high. As I said this price rise affects everything, oil, etc. are not just some some random assets in some market, they affect everything.

P.S. It seems like two Saudi oil facilities were hit again yesterday during all these price rises although there is a heavy media silence looming over it or it is being heavily censored. Oil market doesn't seem to have felt the fear yet.

the evidence can be seen from various existing media sources, as I said before, the effect of war tensions between the two countries is indeed there, but the effect is not that big, in the past two days bitcoin has gone up a little better, although it finally returned down, if this is broadly linked to the case, should bitcoin have been at its lowest price since the start of the war, I understand that?

The up trend started on April 2019, we had a crash and recovery in 2020.
It seems like you are back in 2018 insisting on duplicating a crash that has no reason to be duplicated since the previous rise was not even close to 2017.

Can you provide solid proof? The examples you brought are not correct. For example Iraq was sanctioned and was effectively out of the oil market already when US invaded. Palestine isn't considered a player in oil markets. Other countries didn't have any major conflict affecting their oil, maybe in Syria but nothing more. The biggest I can think of was Saudi Aramco in 2019 which didn't affect oil price that much (about $4 increase in October).

I don't think we can see that ever again because the world has changed significantly ever since 2008. Even then the effects weren't completely global, there were countries that were largely unaffected. In today's world the economy is not as entangled with US economy anymore, it is also becoming less entangled with it, basically the more US sanctions other countries the more it isolates itself.

If Russia ends up sanctioning Europe and forces them to buy their gas elsewhere like from US the cost is going to go so high that no amount of "last resort" could solve the ridiculously high prices.

I'm not talking about crisis, I'm talking about higher inflation rates.
As someone who has lived through a couple of these let me tell you that people do invest to keep their purchasing power. In fact many of them go on an investment spree even if they go hungry.
I can show you pictures of long queues of people standing in line in 2018-2019 to buy gold coins because the government had just printed a ton of fiat and it was losing value.
Similarly the bitcoin market was also super heated despite 2018 being the bear market and most of 2019 being accumulation with no rise (against USD). I sold 0.1 bitcoin back then since I needed the money for about 35% higher than market price due to the huge demand during those times.

Well, in the long-term, high inflation is good for Bitcoin as it will drive more people to Bitcoin. But it won't have much of a short-term effect, beause education about Bitcoin is so horrendous most people just think of it either as a scam or a really risky speculative asset. We're not yet at the point of adoption and education in which we'd see a near-term effect on Bitcoin's price from high inflation (the only people who are buying Bitcoin due to inflation are bitcoiners). Long-term for sure though high inflation will gradually send people looking for alternatives to cash and people will gradually learn more about Bitcoin and realize they need it to store their value.

The US monetary system is in a very bad place as there is zero appetite from either political party for the government to not have huge deficits, and therefore it needs very low interest rates, but inflation is out of control in part because of the endless spending which won't go away, and it needs high interest rates to tamp down inflation. I basically expect inflation to stay relatively high long term now to the point where it's very bad but not the terrible current ~8% once interest rates rise, but interest rates won't rise too much because that endangers everything, hence the continued high inflation. Long term this will drive many millions of Americans into Bitcoin as bitcoin education spreads in the coming years.

In the near term though, all the various global market worries and geopolitical events as well as bitcoin specific worries like regulation are affecting the price a lot more than inflation. But as we've seen Bitcoin is showing remarkable strength in light of everything and as we can all see it is bottoming during this time of heightened fear at a pretty reasonable price (as opposed to the people projecting $20k or $10k or whatever). Things are looking very good for Bitcoin right now, the world just needs a few months to move past this period of heightened fear and uncertainty and geopolitical upheaval.

Why do you think the stock market had one of the craziest bull markets ever after March 2020 crash? Basically people stopped shorting the stock market and realized “the fed will print a crazy amount of money, where will we hedge our savings?” And the answer was in investments like crypto, stocks, real estate, etc.

Yes it did have an affect. However now it’s effect is different because tapering is done and fed needs to increase rates to battle inflation. Hence why the stock market and crypto have been on a huge sell off recently.

Poeple are thinking that consumption would still be growing if the price of oil goes constantly up, which is not the case. If you have rising prices in everything poeple would start buying less, driving less, consuming overall less stuff of everything, driving down demand for oil and thus prices.

I've told people a few times, Europe still has a last resort option when it comes to gas prices, cutting all extra tax, which in most cases is more than half of the overall price,  going from 400 to 800 euros per ton. And while Europe might still be able to pay for even such high fuel prices, other countries won't be able to, especially poor and heavenly reliant on oil ones like India.
You won't see the average 3rd world country citizen paying 3$ for one liter of gas.


If even half of what you're saying about the economic crisis, rising prices in basic goods, business shutting down, and so on and on, where is the money for investments going to come from? In a period as such isn't far more likely you will see poeple having to dig in their investments and selling them in order to pay for food and rent?


Two years ago, the price at ~8000, hashrate at ~120EH/s.
Applying that cost model on these numbers would show some really weird stuff 

I still think of Bitcoin as a speculative asset.  I think it's been lucky to have avoided a recession and that has kept the narrative alive about it being a store of value.  I think if we do see a horrible 2008 style recession in the US (and globally) that Bitcoin will turn out to not be the safe haven that everyone has expected it to be.  Granted, it's price volatility has us more accustomed to massive drops, but I don't think a recession would lead Bitcoin's price higher.  It seems more likely to me that if Bitcoin were to even remain stable, it would be massively dumped in order to scoop up traditional assets at massive discounts.  I think it would be hard to envision a scenario where everything else crashes but Bitcoin continues to rise in value.  That's just not how things work.  It would be pretty awesome though for us holders. Fun to think about I guess.

To see whether or not this case has an impact on bitcoin, let's look at other war cases involving oil prices rising so sharply, for example the case of the Iraq war, Palestine or other countries, but in general crypto is not affected too much by these cases, even though when it comes to problems oil, the country is the largest contributor, I am sure the effects of the war involving Russia and Ukraine did have an impact, but not so much for bitcoin's journey in the future, if you ask bitcoin at what price will it reach under these circumstances, it could possibly stagnate at current prices or it could increase significantly

I think we're back again like 2018 when we're trying to cope and convince ourselves that the up trend that started around 2020 isn't over.  I mean I have no crystal ball and I have no idea what's gonna happen but the price action is def not good right now.  And if anything I think BTC will be testing 28k - 30k support again in a couple of months or so.

By a lot.
It won't be soon because there are still options for what they did with Russia or what Russia did. I felt the oil price so bad I think I am just fixing my bicycle and be healthy again. 
There's not a lot of people now who are unaware with economics and how to save their money from being less valuable, thanks to the internet. All they had to do now is google how they can retain the value of it.
Now the options. It cannot be just simply saving it with banks, that is 1:1. It must be something else and Bitcoin will be shining on those moments of questions.

I think volatility of every market is going to increase a lot and that'll be passed on to btc whenever the stock market (or commodities like gold) crash - if they do.

Bitcoin will probably not maintain its value with the dollar unless salaries and other incomes people receive do (if people have to earn more due to inflation - and many will be making gmoney off natural resources around about now - quite a bit of those funds might end up going into btc and other investments).

So people need to buy only BTC? Another part of crypto world does not worse your attention?

Anyway, even BTC can easily lose over 10% per day which is too high if you are going just to save your money. Other coins beside BTC are even more volatile. You probably need to live somewhere in Venezuela in order to have BTC as a security asset.

P.S.
It is also not clear how current situation in the world affects BTC. Just imho, the impact is negative.

Interesting thoughts but they are irrelevant as I've argued many times bitcoin is not a product and the price is not set by its "producers" aka miners. In other words it doesn't really matter if it costs X$ to mine one bitcoin, price can very well drop to X/2 or rise up to 100X regardless of how much it costs to mine it.

Are you calling bitcoin a shitcoin?!

Just FYI. During recent years world economy had a few serious shocks and it might be that they are the problem and not your "printing spree".


No one is dumping fiat, it is doing fine. There are even many ways of saving your savings without buying volatile shitcoins. It seems incredibly stupid to buy crypto if your goal is just to save your money from inflation.

I tend to read these factors in reverse, which is that the price of bitcoin mining will rise according to the previous factors, which means that the average bitcoin mining will rise and therefore if any correction occurs, it will not last for a long time below that level.


I will use the data here that represents the mining value a year ago

---

BTC price is ~ $56,000    -   Price now is ~ $40,000.
Hashrate is ~ 167 EH/s   -   Hashrate is  ~ 191 EH/s

we consider both 5.5¢ and 3.5¢ per kWh costs which mean electricity is 20% more expensive than in January 2021 and price will keep increase by XX% every couple of months.

Production Cost of 1 BTC per ASIC model

using                                         base 24h cost @ 5.5¢/kWh               base 24h cost @ 3.5¢/kWh
Antminer S19 Pro, 110T                $5,778                                          $3,677
Antminer S17 Pro, 53T                  $7,726                                          $4,917
.
.
.
Averages                                      $11,459                                        $7,292

The lifetime cost of an ASIC miner to mine one bitcoin is on average $15,000-$19,000 USD

Source: https://minerdaily.com/2021/how-much-does-it-cost-to-mine-a-bitcoin-update-may-2021/

---

By calculating inflation, high prices, oil price, and other variables, we can say the lifetime cost of an ASIC miner to mine one bitcoin is on average $25,000-$30,000 USD

Thus, we can predict that if the demand increases, it is difficult to see levels below 30k, and then the price will rebound quickly.

Based on it, the average stability may be at 40k to 60k, and the peaks are higher than 70k.

On one hand we have the decreasing oil supply that is shooting the oil price up to the moon, that in turn has been increasing the fuel prices up to record highs, that in turn will increase cost of transport that affects cost of everything else from groceries to rent.
We also have the conflicts in major oil rich regions (Russia and Arab countries) that is threatening to escalate and cut off more oil from global supply increasing it to over $200.

On the other hand we have the inflation thanks to money printing spree that governments had over the past couple of years and don't seem to want to slow down. Which means price of everything is rising even more while fiat value keeps dumping.

In my experience when fiat is dumping people will look for a way to keep their purchase power or at least part of it. That is achieved by investment. I believe bitcoin has become a viable investment for many because of its deflationary nature and the fact that it has been performing excellently all these years.

How much do you think bitcoin price is going to rise this year because of all this economical drama?