While true we cannot forget about self-fulfilling prophecies either, in which if enough people believe that some event will happen on the future then that event will come to happen due to the decisions taken by all of those people, I really think the main difference here is the demand that bitcoin has, bitcoin unlike most coins has a use case and it is the most widely used cryptocurrency, this gives it a massive advantage over any coin and despite most people now knowing about the effects of the halving a bull run may still happen.
Yeah, this is also true. Most of the time outcome of analyzing the fundamentals or real life events that would be affecting chart patterns doesn't fall far off from tossing a coin if the price is going up or down. Only thing that keeps working so far for me is the effect of "buy the rumor and sell the news". And sometimes those news happens before any rumors and while the price moves immediately, it will move more depending how good or bad news are. In these cases fomoing in often pays off. As when the action isn't priced in, negative news make some people who are in denial buying the dip, as they will see the news as fud. Even when the price keeps on crashing to the ground. While if the news are good people see that as a missing the train and won't buy up when it's already up 70%+ Even though it would have room to grow 10k%
Halving has been an exception on this, as it has every reason of being priced in and so far it really hasn't, at least in case of bitcoin. I wonder when that changes.
For example, in the litecoin situation, just because we invested before the halving, doesn't mean we flipped a coin, we invested because halving makes sense, it should go up, but nobody said it should go up right away, the last halving at bitcoin was at 2020, and peak was at 2021, as you can see it may take some time.
