Topic: What happened to Casascius premiums...? (Read 816 times)

Today's Ethereum news seems a fitting example of why people will always look for physical ways to hold value in an effort to hedge risk...

From ZeroHedge: "Finally, all of this just goes to show that when it comes to "money", whether digital, paper, or hard, there is simply no replacement to being able to hold it in one's hand..."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-17/bitcoins-largest-competitor-hacked-over-59-million-ethers-stolen-ongoing-attack

Just an example of what people are prepared to pay when collectors fever gets hold.
And Mtgox (Magic: The Gathering Online eXchange) 

Understandable...especially regarding liquidity and exchange valuations.  If we step beyond the idea of numismatics and look at Casascius from an asset diversification standpoint...having some amount of physical BTC would seem to hedge risk...for anyone wanting to invest (hodl) in Bitcoin really.  Of course there are countless offline wallet solutions that serve a similar purpose, but Casascius has a well-earned spot at the top of the list in terms of potential appreciative value, in addition to its proven cold storage risk management attributes.  A 1BTC silver Casascius actually holds ~2-3BTC of value in one coin, at the current market rates...there are not many other cold storage solutions that can claim that kind of premium value store.  And as an aside, regardless of what one thinks of grading standards, having an early graded/dated and slabbed coin may provide some additional measure of security, if and when counterfeits become a major concern and enter the market en-masse...as is the case now with mainstream coin and card collecting.

With so few actual Casascius in existence overall, it would make sense that as more players enter the space, we may see increased demand for Casascius as a diversified BTC holding method...keep some liquid and some physical.  This demand driver alone may move premiums back up, without even considering collectability.

  

What has a Magic the gathering card got to do with Casascius premiums? It's hard to see any kind of parallel besides being a collectors item.. in totally different markets.

I'd say people are unsure of whether to hold on to their bitcoin or invest in physical coins since the value has gone up so much lately. It's pretty much going from a very liquid investment into a static investment that may not rise as much. There do seem to be a pretty constant supply of sellers, but few people are willing to invest such high amounts for such a small object and I can imagine most people would still think of the USD amount when buying such items.

Simple maths really:

If a bitcoin was selling at $400, you might get $6,000 for a 10btc Casascius (at a 1.5x markup)
If a bitcoin is selling at $650, at a 1.5x markup that jumps to $9,750 with no added value - the stored amount goes up too, but it is unlikely to be redeemed because the rarity is integral to it's extra worth.

This card sold for $27,000 back in 2013. Thats BTC41 at current $663 exchange rate!) http://www.geek.com/games/27000-black-lotus-found-during-live-magic-the-gathering-pack-opening-1606723/
.

.

Bitcoin is not just a game card. It's the best form of money we have ever seen
and has changed the the world for ever.
Considering this, what are rare physicals going to fetch in the future?
.

Preach. Remember the MS70 dime with a dent in it?

I've still got two 1BTC Silvers, 1Ag1, first-owner, PGP docs; won't be selling them until I have a grey beard that reaches my knees.

In the past, I find that there is more demand after a large increase in BTC value. Time to sell folks!

buy ungraded coin, ANACS is a joke

I suspect that owners of physical coins saw that ANACS was starting to issue higher grades for physical crypto coins and many owners would either get their coins re-graded or graded for the first time (with a high grade) and list them for sale. I believe that this has created somewhat of a glut of supply in the physical coin market, although, I believe that buyers will eventually scoop up all the coins and the market will rebound.

I would speculate that if the USD/BTC price breaches the prior ATH and continues to increase then additional people will start to be interested in buying physical coins, potentially pushing BTC premiums to higher levels.

The market goes up and down just like any other. Currently, the prices on most coins are down a bit, but I expect they will go right back up.

Absolutely understood...but the question is why?  Last time BTC popped like this in late 2013, 10's were trading in the mid-20's (if you could even find one).  From what I can tell on the forums, perhaps there is speculation that people won't be willing to pay high BTC premiums as BTC value increases, but bottom line, Casascius coins are very rare and will only become more so.   If this is the case, numismatics history would indicate otherwise regarding premiums:   http://www.pcgs.com/News/The-Top-50-Us-Coins-Of-All-Time

Will be interesting to see what happens as more people enter the space...guessing we'll see a spike once we cross back over the $1000USD/BTC threshold.  People still like to hold shiny things in their hands!

Casascius premium dip and rise as well, it's pretty normal to see this situation. Might be a good time to buy 

I think when more people start getting into BTC the demand will go up again.

It would appear currently there are more sellers than buyers

Been AFK for a while...come back to find BTC value skyrocketing, but Casascius premiums plummeted...what gives...?  Since when did we start asking mid-teens for 10BTC silvers and selling gold 1BTC MS69's under 3BTC...?!  What the heck's goin' on round here...??