Topic: What happens if ... (Read 106 times)

Your understanding of the world, history and geopolitics have always been very funny. It makes me chuckle each time I read one of your posts here.

Let me start from the middle.
Iran didn't fight "Arabs of Iraq", Iran defended against a full scale invasion by a Ba'athi regime in Iraq with a coalition of 32 countries including NATO members. As for "Arabs of Iraq", I'll just drop a name: Badr Army The Iraqis who fought for Iran against the Ba'ath dictatorship regime of Iraq.

As for the usurper Aliyev, he knows better than you that his regime will be wiped out in a matter of 5 to 6 hours (and I'm being generous here). There are only 32 strategic targets to be bombed to cripple his regime entirely. And Turkey is too weak and too busy to want to risk getting in the way of a super power at Iran's level, not to mention that he won't have any time to even react as I said the entire Aliyev regime will be wiped out very quickly.

Now as for United States, I will only mention 2 operation:
1. Operation Martyr Soleimani
On 3 January 2020 Trump broke international law and ordered an Act of Terror to assassinate an Iranian general on a diplomatic mission in Iraq working on coordinating the war on ISIS. After the terrorist attack carried out by US airforce, Trump started threatening Iran that in case of any action against US he will strike Iran (52 sites to be exact).
On January 8, 2020 Iran bombed the shit out of 2 major US bases in Iraq eliminating over a hundred US servicemembers.
For 2 days Trump was nowhere to be seen and after this period of absence he came out of his bunker to say "everything is fine"

2. Operation True Promise
On 1 April 2024 Israel carried out a terrorist attack on a building next to Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria.
Those who have no idea about Iran's military strength were saying the exact same things as you. Dumb things such as "Iran is alone, Iran will be attacked from all sides, etc" if Iran responds.
On On 13 April 2024, Iran launched the largest missile and drone attack in history against Israeli positions. All ballistic missiles and most of the other projectiles went through and hit their targets despite the full NATO defenses that were involved. Nevatim Airbase which was and still is the most protected place on earth was demolished alongside the secret spy facilities in the Sheikh mountains and about a dozen other bases were damaged.
Same as before, this time Biden was nowhere to be found and eventually he said the same "everything is fine".

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So yeah, you can believe the garbage the usurper Aliyev feeds you, the reality of this world is entirely  different

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As for the 5th fleet, the bulk of it has already escaped and is currently hanging out far away in the Indian Ocean. In case of a war with Iran, not a single NATO vessel would remain afloat after the first day or two. They know this very well which is why they've evacuated the region.

I love it whenever the usurpers of Aran and Badkube use this term. It is a reminder for Iranians, specifically Azeris that part of their soil is under occupation and needs to be liberated. And it will be liberated, one way or the other...

  Have you seen it? Hezbollah, by shelling Israel, forced the population of Northern Israel to leave their homes. But Iran, as I predicted, does not want a big war with its direct participation.

Everyone anticipated what Hezbollah’s stance would be and we were answered by their leader more or less. Although Hezbollah have been helping Palestine against Israel they still declined to join in and consider this as an all-out war. They are only keeping Israel on their toes but most probably do not want to trouble themselves with even more problems. There has been only threats from Hezbollah so far even after attacks from Israel but still no strong move from them so we shall see.

Possibility for Iran to intervene, but unlikely.

Iran's hopes was to disrupt relations between Israel and Arab countries by destroying diplomatic ties that were established through the Abraham accords. One can assume they began planning an attack of this caliber, using Hamas as a proxy, when the accords were signed in 2020. Certainly after the Negev Summit Iran knew they needed to attack Israel.

Houthis have already attacked Israeli targets. Hezbollah remains on standby.

Iran is mostly a passive beligerant in the war of Israel against Hamas, because many of the factors you mentioned, specially the possible involvement of the United States if Israel get directly attacked by any Arab neighbor.
Iran will just continue to fund anti Israeli factions, instead openly declare a war against a small country which is protected by a giant as the USA and the European Union are.

The worst case scenario would be a quick scalation of the conflict and small countries to get officially involved in the war, like Yemen or Lebanon and that could spark more unrest in the middle east, forcing even bigger nations to intervene. One does not need to know much history to realize that is the way the first world war started, with a regional war between two nations, until the conflict reached the rest of the planet.
Let us pray it does not happen again.

Alik Bakhshi

What happens if …
    
      For more than a month now, Israel has been waging a brutal war with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The political situation in the Middle East is tense, but no Arab country wants to get involved in a war with Israel, with the exception of Yemen, which declared war on Israel, believing that this would encourage countries neighboring Israel to follow. The most aggressive anti-Israel rhetoric comes from Iran and the pro-Iranian organization Hezbollah. True, Iran stated that it would respond to Israel if it attacked. It is clear that now is not the time to start a war with Iran. But the question is how Iran will behave if Hezbollah clashes with Israel, this means an inevitable war between Israel and Lebanon, and possibly Syria because Hezbollah is also present in Syria. Still, it is unlikely that Iran will directly involve itself in war. And there are reasons for this that are very dangerous for Iran, which is well understood in Tehran.

       The fact is that the threats emanating towards Israel are needed by Iran to gain authority in the Islamic world, and not concern for the fate of the Arabs, in this case Palestine. Iran itself fought with the Arabs of Iraq for 8 years, and relations with Saudi Arabia are far from friendly, but it was the Arabs who bestowed Islam on Iran, thanks to which power ended up in the hands of religious fanatics. It should be noted that Iran has no relations at all with all the countries surrounding it, perhaps excluding Armenia. And in this regard, Iran is alone. From the point of view of the state structure, Iran is close to the totalitarian regimes of Russia and North Korea, however, neither Moscow nor Pyongyang will definitely help Iran in the war with Israel. And given the fact that America will definitely intervene, it is unlikely that the Tehran ayatollahs will risk losing their power, since military defeat is beyond doubt. Iran will have to defend itself from three sides: from the West by Israel and the US 6th Fleet, from the South (Persian Gulf) Iran will be attacked by the US 5th Fleet, and from the North by the Israeli air force based in Azerbaijan. If Iran attacks Azerbaijan in response, then it will also have to deal with Turkey as a country linked by a strategic alliance with Azerbaijan.
    
     It is very likely that in the event of defeat, which is without options, the regime of Tehran obscurantists will fall. Moreover, it is possible that Southern Azerbaijan will reunite with Azerbaijan (1,2) and then the Zangezur corridor will lose its relevance. Tehran understands all this very well, so fears of an Iranian attack on Israel are in vain.

1. Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/13967.html
2. Political collisions and the fate of Azerbaijan. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/95510.html
              
         07.11.2023