Topic: What happens if ... (Read 55 times)

Everyone anticipated what Hezbollah’s stance would be and we were answered by their leader more or less. Although Hezbollah have been helping Palestine against Israel they still declined to join in and consider this as an all-out war. They are only keeping Israel on their toes but most probably do not want to trouble themselves with even more problems. There has been only threats from Hezbollah so far even after attacks from Israel but still no strong move from them so we shall see.

Possibility for Iran to intervene, but unlikely.

Iran's hopes was to disrupt relations between Israel and Arab countries by destroying diplomatic ties that were established through the Abraham accords. One can assume they began planning an attack of this caliber, using Hamas as a proxy, when the accords were signed in 2020. Certainly after the Negev Summit Iran knew they needed to attack Israel.

Houthis have already attacked Israeli targets. Hezbollah remains on standby.

Iran is mostly a passive beligerant in the war of Israel against Hamas, because many of the factors you mentioned, specially the possible involvement of the United States if Israel get directly attacked by any Arab neighbor.
Iran will just continue to fund anti Israeli factions, instead openly declare a war against a small country which is protected by a giant as the USA and the European Union are.

The worst case scenario would be a quick scalation of the conflict and small countries to get officially involved in the war, like Yemen or Lebanon and that could spark more unrest in the middle east, forcing even bigger nations to intervene. One does not need to know much history to realize that is the way the first world war started, with a regional war between two nations, until the conflict reached the rest of the planet.
Let us pray it does not happen again.

Alik Bakhshi

What happens if …
    
      For more than a month now, Israel has been waging a brutal war with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The political situation in the Middle East is tense, but no Arab country wants to get involved in a war with Israel, with the exception of Yemen, which declared war on Israel, believing that this would encourage countries neighboring Israel to follow. The most aggressive anti-Israel rhetoric comes from Iran and the pro-Iranian organization Hezbollah. True, Iran stated that it would respond to Israel if it attacked. It is clear that now is not the time to start a war with Iran. But the question is how Iran will behave if Hezbollah clashes with Israel, this means an inevitable war between Israel and Lebanon, and possibly Syria because Hezbollah is also present in Syria. Still, it is unlikely that Iran will directly involve itself in war. And there are reasons for this that are very dangerous for Iran, which is well understood in Tehran.

       The fact is that the threats emanating towards Israel are needed by Iran to gain authority in the Islamic world, and not concern for the fate of the Arabs, in this case Palestine. Iran itself fought with the Arabs of Iraq for 8 years, and relations with Saudi Arabia are far from friendly, but it was the Arabs who bestowed Islam on Iran, thanks to which power ended up in the hands of religious fanatics. It should be noted that Iran has no relations at all with all the countries surrounding it, perhaps excluding Armenia. And in this regard, Iran is alone. From the point of view of the state structure, Iran is close to the totalitarian regimes of Russia and North Korea, however, neither Moscow nor Pyongyang will definitely help Iran in the war with Israel. And given the fact that America will definitely intervene, it is unlikely that the Tehran ayatollahs will risk losing their power, since military defeat is beyond doubt. Iran will have to defend itself from three sides: from the West by Israel and the US 6th Fleet, from the South (Persian Gulf) Iran will be attacked by the US 5th Fleet, and from the North by the Israeli air force based in Azerbaijan. If Iran attacks Azerbaijan in response, then it will also have to deal with Turkey as a country linked by a strategic alliance with Azerbaijan.
    
     It is very likely that in the event of defeat, which is without options, the regime of Tehran obscurantists will fall. Moreover, it is possible that Southern Azerbaijan will reunite with Azerbaijan (1,2) and then the Zangezur corridor will lose its relevance. Tehran understands all this very well, so fears of an Iranian attack on Israel are in vain.

1. Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/13967.html
2. Political collisions and the fate of Azerbaijan. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/95510.html
              
         07.11.2023