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Topic: What happens to Chinese mining companies if there is no halving price rise? (Read 1733 times)

newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
Will they go under?  Can they survive on half the amount of income?
they will have to survive until difficulty updates to reflect the lower price. Some may won't be able to do that and will change their business model or die. But the biggest players, if they hold many bitcoins, may hedge against that. They may push the price arbitrary low and collecting back their bitcoins at much lower prices will earn enough to compensate the lack of income from mining. I wouldn't be afraid about them.

Most of the Chinese mining companies will survive. They have cheap electricity price from Hydroppower.
uki
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
cryptojunk bag holder
Will they go under?  Can they survive on half the amount of income?
they will have to survive until difficulty updates to reflect the lower price. Some may won't be able to do that and will change their business model or die. But the biggest players, if they hold many bitcoins, may hedge against that. They may push the price arbitrary low and collecting back their bitcoins at much lower prices will earn enough to compensate the lack of income from mining. I wouldn't be afraid about them.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
✪ NEXCHANGE | BTC, LTC, ETH & DOGE ✪
They'll likely still be at a profit and have made his math taking into account the different possibilities. Chinese tend to be smart.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
Most of them have yearly electricity contracts, that are already paid. They will mine no matter what.

This is pretty much spot on.

Early contracts of their overhead cost is paid a year in advanced to avoid the price flux in a sense, just gotta worry about the price in $100 margins though.

Or anything that would make it to that price.
legendary
Activity: 1473
Merit: 1086
Most of them have yearly electricity contracts, that are already paid. They will mine no matter what.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Will they go under?  Can they survive on half the amount of income?

answer is no, they can't survive, when block rewards will be halving they will get 2 times less, but fees will still be same, so miners would have to leave their jobs and it would be very bad for bitcoin if new miners wouldn't change old ones, but  i don't think that price won't go up, it should rise to 800$ atleast
newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
First every one will mine with lost...
And little by little many will give up...
and then the "difficulty" will be adapted for a little profit for the best "productive" ones...

That could be true. If there is no profit, some miners will give up. It would be better to buy bitcoin directly.
legendary
Activity: 1778
Merit: 1026
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First every one will mine with lost...
And little by little many will give up...
and then the "difficulty" will be adapted for a little profit for the best "productive" ones...
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
Will they go under?  Can they survive on half the amount of income?

answer is no, probably they won't survive, because they will get much less than their fees

so thing that they will do, is probably to switch to other alt coins,  or just quit their jobs and no mor mining, but that would be horrible news for bitcoin

The chinese miners will develop a next generation miner. Which will be profitable after the halving.
They surely will not used an outdated S7 miner for longer then 1 year. Altough i am not sure if the S7 will be profitable after the halving.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Will they go under?  Can they survive on half the amount of income?

answer is no, probably they won't survive, because they will get much less than their fees

so thing that they will do, is probably to switch to other alt coins,  or just quit their jobs and no mor mining, but that would be horrible news for bitcoin
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
All you're missing the point. The big Chinese mining companies will go on as usual, halving or not, they will redouble their effort which means they will grow even BIGGER. Chinese capitalism at its best, you can say. On the other hand, many, if not most, of the home miners around the world WILL close down after the halving. Unless price doubles, which will NOT happen. Price can not suddenly double just because of halving. In fact, I think price will come down around July 2016, will stay down until late 2016. Big China mining companies will thrive regardless.
newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
nothing will happen to them even if the bitcoin price stays the same as it is right now. they are earning a lot of money each day and that is while they have access to somewhat cheap electricity.

The halving just means their earning will halve. But they can still make profit from the mining. After halving, the electricity cost might be 50% of the revenue.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
no big miner can simply assume when calculating their business plans years in advance that price has to jump because of halving. what they do not need to assume is the block reward itself: it is a given fact that with the upcoming halving they make only 50% of what they did before. big miners have considered this BEFORE they start investing millions. most of them will be able to sit it out.   
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 503
Mayby this is a stupid question, but is this the first block halving ever?
If it has happened before then I don't understand why people always stress about it.

because it is not the same thing, the first havilgn was not seen as a great thing because, it was from 50 to 25 and because the user base for bitcoin was very small back then, no comparison at all

each halving is much stronger than the previous one, you will se the next halving(6.25) will be much more prominent than this one

Are you saying the risk increases (exponentially?) with every block reward reduction? I'm sceptical, to be honest. Post-halving, less efficient miners may stop rising - if that happens difficulty will fall, miners will (re)enter, difficulty will adjust, and the system will settle to a new equilibrium once again. What scenarios would prevent equilibrium?

I'm not sold on the idea that the first halving was no big thing, or that future halvings will be more prominent - but at this point we've only had the one halving, so we honestly don't know. I'd expect the importance of the block reward reduction to decline with each halving (as the proportion of block reward to transaction fees changes), but that presupposes a mature market in transaction fees. Why is it you think halvings will increase in strength?



you need more demand to sustain the price now than before, before was very easy to manipulate the value the scene was very small

so yes i kinda think that the risk is greater now, compared with before and it will be greater at each halving, but this does not mean that the halving will have less impact

Ah, you're talking about the risk of price falling, I think? I'm not sure I'd see that as a risk so much as business-as-usual. I was thinking more along the lines of the risks hinted at by the OP, of an existential risk to the protocol itself (a risk I personally think is minimal and overstated).
legendary
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
Mayby this is a stupid question, but is this the first block halving ever?
If it has happened before then I don't understand why people always stress about it.

because it is not the same thing, the first havilgn was not seen as a great thing because, it was from 50 to 25 and because the user base for bitcoin was very small back then, no comparison at all

each halving is much stronger than the previous one, you will se the next halving(6.25) will be much more prominent than this one

Are you saying the risk increases (exponentially?) with every block reward reduction? I'm sceptical, to be honest. Post-halving, less efficient miners may stop rising - if that happens difficulty will fall, miners will (re)enter, difficulty will adjust, and the system will settle to a new equilibrium once again. What scenarios would prevent equilibrium?

I'm not sold on the idea that the first halving was no big thing, or that future halvings will be more prominent - but at this point we've only had the one halving, so we honestly don't know. I'd expect the importance of the block reward reduction to decline with each halving (as the proportion of block reward to transaction fees changes), but that presupposes a mature market in transaction fees. Why is it you think halvings will increase in strength?



you need more demand to sustain the price now than before, before was very easy to manipulate the value the scene was very small

so yes i kinda think that the risk is greater now, compared with before and it will be greater at each halving, but this does not mean that the halving will have less impact
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1006
Will they go under?  Can they survive on half the amount of income?

I think they can survive on half the income, the price remained around 200-220 for a lot of time last year, they did survived that and technically it will be just like that if price doesn't goes up.

25*220=5500
12*420=5040

Not that big difference, though the price should go up but if they decide to stop their operations, their place will be taken by others.
It is not easier for other to take place of them as it need lots of investment to run mining farm.

If majority of those chinese miners decide to hold and pump price a little bit than price will be moved almost doubled due to other trader's phycology and greed.
uki
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
cryptojunk bag holder
change of the coins available in the block is one thing, diff the other. If the diff drops down they will be able to mine more blocks and thus get their numbers as planned. Shouldn't be a big deal for them.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
similar to a couple of difficulty jump
legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 1214
Vave.com - Crypto Casino
Nothing would happen wrong, because they get a good profit with the normal growth and when halving occurs a small growth will be there as stable. This would never affect miners as they won't much think about the pricing as they depend for stable income on transaction.
legendary
Activity: 1848
Merit: 1009
Next-Gen Trade Racing Metaverse
They still get paid daily as mentioned.

I`m sure it wont hurt them at all. Unless bitcoin really dropped back to the $100 valuation or something drastic then they would force to downsize.

Most already made back their money I`m sure.

While it's true that the halving wouldn't hurt them all, a huge chunk of them would probably stop mining if there isn't a compensation in the fees or the price of BTC. Only those with real cheap electricity, like BitMain, would be able to continue for a while.
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1007
They still get paid daily as mentioned.

I`m sure it wont hurt them at all. Unless bitcoin really dropped back to the $100 valuation or something drastic then they would force to downsize.

Most already made back their money I`m sure.
I'd say that it is most likely for most of the miners to have made their money back at this point, but there may still be other things in the background that they have to pay for. The good news is, however, they have a massive infrastructure system to work with, and thus likely won't have to worry about not mining enough.

I think anything below $250 would probably force a lot of industrial miners out of the Bitcoin economy, but we hopefully aren't looking at any values as low as that in the near future.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
They still get paid daily as mentioned.

I`m sure it wont hurt them at all. Unless bitcoin really dropped back to the $100 valuation or something drastic then they would force to downsize.

Most already made back their money I`m sure.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
nothing will happen to them even if the bitcoin price stays the same as it is right now. they are earning a lot of money each day and that is while they have access to somewhat cheap electricity.
legendary
Activity: 1937
Merit: 1001
It's almost certain that the bitcoin network will collapse after the great disappointment of the halving. I explained all the reasons before.
Pab
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1012
What will happen to wesrness company price depends from cost of input China can organise free electricity
if thay will like thay can own all btc miing becouse thay are able to colaborate westerness only fight each other
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1002
The possible scenario of no increase is saying theres no demand.

Theres always demand esp when "fear" is put into the market - I`m not talking about the regular people who are informed with bitcoin. I`m focusing on people who have no idea what halving is or anything in general like that guy who sold his house for bitcoin.

When those type of people see buy orders come in basically..but lets say the worst case scenario for the mining companies is only down sizing rigs and eat a loss and try to make it back in some other way.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Mining farm can sell bitcoins at 800 USD only ... and what ?
bitcoin price rise ... because supply always have the last word in A CLOSED MONETARY NETWORK.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 503
Mayby this is a stupid question, but is this the first block halving ever?
If it has happened before then I don't understand why people always stress about it.

because it is not the same thing, the first havilgn was not seen as a great thing because, it was from 50 to 25 and because the user base for bitcoin was very small back then, no comparison at all

each halving is much stronger than the previous one, you will se the next halving(6.25) will be much more prominent than this one

Are you saying the risk increases (exponentially?) with every block reward reduction? I'm sceptical, to be honest. Post-halving, less efficient miners may stop rising - if that happens difficulty will fall, miners will (re)enter, difficulty will adjust, and the system will settle to a new equilibrium once again. What scenarios would prevent equilibrium?

I'm not sold on the idea that the first halving was no big thing, or that future halvings will be more prominent - but at this point we've only had the one halving, so we honestly don't know. I'd expect the importance of the block reward reduction to decline with each halving (as the proportion of block reward to transaction fees changes), but that presupposes a mature market in transaction fees. Why is it you think halvings will increase in strength?

legendary
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
Mayby this is a stupid question, but is this the first block halving ever?
If it has happened before then I don't understand why people always stress about it.

because it is not the same thing, the first halving was not seen as a great thing because, it was from 50 to 25 and because the user base for bitcoin was very small back then, no comparison at all

each halving is much stronger than the previous one, you will se the next halving(6.25) will be much more prominent than this one
legendary
Activity: 3304
Merit: 1617
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Most of the large pools have very cheap or even free electricity. I don't expect the large miners to be affected negatively by the halving.

It's a moot point though any way as the price is highly likely to rise as the halving nears.
sr. member
Activity: 686
Merit: 270
FREEDOM RESERVE
So bitcoin will continue to be held to ransom by chinese miners?  Surely chinese miners going bust will be better for bitcoin in the long run
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 655
thye will change to alt currency then from bitcoin, but i don't think that there won't be any price rise, i mean it will create panic(halving) so price will change anyway

i doubt that they are going to switch just because of this halving since the price is not that low that they can't profit. $400 is still profitable for them.

also don't forget that they are all big whales that can change the market price however they want if it comes to that.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 503
Mayby this is a stupid question, but is this the first block halving ever?
If it has happened before then I don't understand why people always stress about it.

It's not the first halving - the first was from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, in November 2012.

I don't understand why people stress about it, either.
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
thye will change to alt currency then from bitcoin, but i don't think that there won't be any price rise, i mean it will create panic(halving) so price will change anyway
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1017
Mayby this is a stupid question, but is this the first block halving ever?
If it has happened before then I don't understand why people always stress about it.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1360
Don't let others control your BTC -> self custody
Keep mining I guess. Big mining boom started years ago and they knew the risk.
legendary
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
they can survive, the diff is slowing down, the last value was negative, they can be profitable even at $150-200(the math is simple here earning/consumption)

the consumption for their asic is ridiculous at 0.05 or less per kw/h, and the earning is still not that bad(almost $200 per month with a single unit)
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
I think the major Chinese mining farms will surely have a plan b for when things don't go as they have planned. Don't forget that BTCC Pool is owned by the exchange BTC China. They have major influence over the price. Something tells me that Chinese exchanges will step in when there is no natural growth.

I expect this as well.  They know what they are doing and most likely have a Plan B in place.  All of these things (effects of halving) were probably thought out well in advance.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 3406
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They will be there always (no matter what). I'm guessing they could release new miners now (if they want to) but surely they will wait for the halving to go underway and see how it will affect their plans. Not sure what you meant exactly by "will they go under?" but I assume you mean, they'll be gone but I doubt. And lastly if miners happen to switch their mining rigs off, then the difficulty will go down and that will surely be a good news to those who will remain.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 502
Will they go under?  Can they survive on half the amount of income?

I think they can survive on half the income, the price remained around 200-220 for a lot of time last year, they did survived that and technically it will be just like that if price doesn't goes up.

25*220=5500
12*420=5040

Not that big difference, though the price should go up but if they decide to stop their operations, their place will be taken by others.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1023
They are part of the economy. If they all decide to hold their coins and slow down the release into the market, the price will go up.

Just like during the recession, many are not able to hold on to their valuables and have to sell them cheap. It all depends on the miners' holding power.
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1091
I think the major Chinese mining farms will surely have a plan b for when things don't go as they have planned. Don't forget that BTCC Pool is owned by the exchange BTC China. They have major influence over the price. Something tells me that Chinese exchanges will step in when there is no natural growth.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1001
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maybe they will switch to some alt know know you dont know what price will it be
sr. member
Activity: 686
Merit: 270
FREEDOM RESERVE
Will they go under?  Can they survive on half the amount of income?
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