Topic: What IF? (Read 389 times)

I do not think that this was all planned. The sharp rise in prices for crypto currency, in my opinion, was due to a lot of positive news that fell on blockchain technology.

I see whatever is happening in market price as normal. The price has been dragging for sometime no doubt it is looking for a breakout. This is why it is the time to catch in on some buying mode.

I read this several times, tried really hard to understand it but it makes no sense to me, I really wonder what your were talking about

What if, I'm buying 3M Bitcoins with Billions of dollars to push the price up to $20,000 and then give them all to you for $60B? you would have to start selling them because you need money now, you would sell them for any price, because you couldn't receive money from me. the whole world is calling you a terrorist, giving money to you directly could have unwanted consequences, such as getting tagged by Lauda and having no salary in any signature campaign and nothing for you.

I don't imply that it is a crime to profit from the trade. Like other people are discussing in the thread, maybe we should try to figure out who exactly could be doing this, if they really are??
The banks/ hedge funds or filthy rich investors. If there was a way to analyze the transactions and look for patterns, it wouldn't be so hard to identify the most active trading links. I understand that it goes against the whole philosophy to be asking something like this but then, if such a manipulation scenario was true, people should know who is making the concerted effort??

Lol.. by "Normal Investors", I mean the people who are jumping into this because they see it as a way to unshackle themselves from the low-return and risky investments otherwise peddled by investment banks and financial organizations (Remember House mortgage based derivatives??).
People who are jumping in with enough knowledge to take advantage of the volatility , i.e, traders, are not Normal investors. Those who form whale groups to manipulate ICO prices and flip them for quick gains aren't either.
Your average Joe's who hear about bitcoin from media and then go on to sell houses or take other huge risks are the normal investors..

@krishnapramod since you mentioned the price
Is there a graph showing the last month CME prices compared to bitcoin prices?
Last month as in running contract for that month, not the latest.

I would really want to try a tin foil hat for myself  and see what the dump looked when the so called MtGox sells went.
At the same time I pray that there would be no connection and nothing relevant...


Sad part is that a lot of normal users around here are doing the same....

Strictly A Conspiracy Theory

In October, after CME's announcement to launch Bitcoin futures, the price surged to a record high above $6400. Three years is quite a bit of stretch. Let's assume the manipulators bought at around $5 to $6K, all the hype, individual investors fomoing, the price hit ATH just around and after futures launch and then these manipulators slowly started selling their Bitcoin to win their futures, profiting from both.

If price suppression is their goal, why would they dump all the coins at once? Panic sellers and holders, like OP said these manipulators sell a few coins to trigger a response from panic sellers to push down the price a bit. They don't own the whole supply of Bitcoins, they can manipulate panic sellers by dumping a few coins, but still there are long-term holders. I guess with their unlimited supply of fiat, they can rinse and repeat this strategy until the ecosystem has more ideologically driven long-term holders, few panic sellers, and these manipulators end up having no coins. Taking off my tin foil hat.

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This theory can be debunked simply on the basis of, no evidence to prove such a manipulation is happening, futures market doesn't have enough volume to manipulate Bitcoin market, and this recent trend is simply a natural market pattern.

A good number of Bitcoin users assumed the future market/institutional investors will affect the Bitcoin price positively, guess we have to wait a bit for that to happen. Conspiracy theory or happening, one thing is factual, the Wall Street/institutional investors don't care about Bitcoin's ideologies, for them it doesn't matter whether it succeeds or fails, they just see Bitcoin as a tool to boost their fiat earnings.

Ok, let's say this is a calculated attack.

1) Who is the culprit? Banks? A bank? An alliance of Banks? The Government? Of what country? The world government? The whales?

2) Their motive is to suppress the price in order to restrain growth.
At this point we must define this growth:
a) people using bitcoin daily
b) growth as in prices only.

a) Price suppression should have no influence on the number of people that use bitcoin. Did those huge drops from 30$ to 2$ influenced the number of users on the darknet and made them quit dealing with BTC ? Now looking the other way around, usage hasn't increased 10x compared to two years ago even if the price has. (of course this is because limitation in the blocks but still).

b) That should scare away possible investors. Or not!!!
If I'm going to search the wall observer thread for "cheap coins" I'm sure there would be more than 1000 results.
A lot people where complaining that BTC is so high in price that is makes no sense investing it it as it's almost impossible to gain x10 again. Now with 6666 in price that's a lot closer to reality.

There are many different views and opinions on this and I like some of the thinking behind it. We should consider that the latest price movement downwards are not in any way, like the previous price trends we have seen before. The gap is also bigger between the dump and the correction phases.

Something changed and I think this has something to do with the attack strategy from our competitors. It is definitely a more structured and calculated attack, with the aim of suppressing the price.

The usual trading strategy of buying low and selling high has nothing to do with this. We are seeing manipulation to restrain Bitcoin's growth. 

if it is like that, i think we as a small trader only can follow their game to get profit. because they can moving the price as they see fit, but i think this is dont continuously, because it will damage the market

I recently saw a news where someone showed that there are about a quarter million bitcoins in a single wallet. Such people can manipulate prices easily.

I think it's going to be a turning point, and now the market is saturated, now most of the BTC later by some large corporate control, only a small part of the hold by people, but they do not plan to sell the currency, from trading volumes can be seen recently this period of time. Bitcoin will explode in the last 1-2 months.

I was under the impression that this was exactly what the whales were doing already, with the great advantage that they can skip a lot of those steps simply because they already have a lot of bitcoin, they push the price up then people begin to invest in a frenzy, they begin to sell some of their coins for a huge price and then they crash market, repeat as many times as necessary.

Yes. Probably. After such a huge pump it is "healthy".
Those people are called traders. They did not disappear after the price get lower.
The adoption doesn't really depend on the price of Bitcoin. Price changes play more significant role there. No one is using fiat money to get a profit but holding a fiat currency that will loose half of its value in a ween is probably a stupid move. It should work similar in crypto. People shouldn't be driven only  by their to use crypto. It should become easier then fiat in order to get more audience.
BTC futures look extremely unpopular. It seems like someone have to spend huge money to moniplate the market to get a smaller profit. And I'm not counting all extra cimspiracy expences and risks of getting jailed for that kind of things.

 Its not a new thing for some business  to have secret investors that gathers to push up a business for their own gain. I used to think this was never possible but now, I tend to think that there are major manipulators who are whale investors that are manoeuvering the market for their own interest. Even this days most of them are openingly declaring that they will be buying more coins to pump the price.

I have a bias against conspiracy theories, but I try to read them with an open mind.  However, this one smells just like ones put forth by the precious metals crowd, that some unknown, very powerful cabal is conspiring to drive down the price of gold & silver and has been doing this for years, apparently.  Why?  One reason they give is so that they can buy cheap metal.  Another is that they don't want common investors to make any money.  If I'm not mistaken, there was actually some bank or investment firm that was charged with manipulating markets not too long ago, but it didn't fit the conspiracy theorists' models.  I don't have a link, but I remember reading something about this.

With bitcoin, who knows?  The market itself is so much smaller than even the silver market alone that it wouldn't take much (relatively speaking) to manipulate it.  But until there's evidence that people are actually doing this--and for the reasons propagated by OP and the like--I'll tend not to believe it.  I'm not saying it's not happening, just that I'm going to reserve judgement until there's proof of manipulation.

I also tend to think that if any manipulation were going to happen, it would be artificially increasing the price to profit from the gains, not suppression.  What we're seeing now with the price just seems like a lull.  Remember in 2016 or so when bitcoin was stuck at $420-$450 for months?  We're well over 10 times that price now, which is still an incredible gain.

No one can  really predict what will happen because volatility is way hard to predict. They are just speculating and gambling with their speculations. Surely, the market value of Bitcoin will not be stagnant since it is just dependent with the demand and demand changes from time to time. But who knows,maybe your theory is correct and we will just see it on the following months for Bitcoin.

About a month ago, a goldman sachs backed startup known as "circle" bought out the crypto exchange poloniex for $400 million. Craig Wright is rumored to have received $200 million in financial backing from an unknown source to fund his start ups. When bitcoin was still above $10k there was another story in the news about unknown investors buying up $400 million in bitcoin. It seems that banks have more than one strategy for addressing bitcoin and crypto currencies & try to cover all their bases. They're buying crypto exchanges, people like Craig Wright and they could also be some of the mysterious unknown people buying up hundreds of millions in btc.

The news story about $80 billion in tether (usdt) being printed out-of-thin-air to buy up bitcoin and "maintain its value" probably was market manipulation of some type. It is possible that bankers or someone else are deliberately having fake news stories printed to decrease bitcoin's price and buy up a decent proportion of the bitcoins in existence. Even if all of this speculation is true, it is possible that even banks still aren't certain what the outcome of bitcoin is, they're simply covering their bases in case of multiple contingencies.

Let me see if I get this right.

They bought a lot of coins to increase the price from 1 000 to 18 000, not they are suppressing the price back to 6 000,  by dumping because they know it will go up beyond 18 000 somewhere in the future.

They had 3 years of buying coins at 1/10 of the current value and now they are bent on keeping bitcoin at 6 000 to accumulate.

No matter how you look at it it's just not making any sense!!!


So they want to push down the price slowly but they don't want to push it fast because that way it will go down...also
Common....

I don't know how it is a crime when an investor sells off at ATH or buys in at a ridiculously cheap price during a dip. Isn't the ability to understand and feel the beat of the market in order to know when to take profit a business dexterity? Why do we (losers) always think it is manipulation? Why?

I don't think there is such a thing as "Normal Investors". We can safely say we have investors who are adverse to risk and those who are gross risk takers.

I don't think its a "smoke screen" at all. With the rapid growth of Bitcoin in just over a month going to 20,000$ there is no doubt in me that the market confidence will also shrink that one massive selling will give a big panic selling in the market. And if this "moon" happen too fast again we will just see another repeat of what is happening now. Which means another profit taking will happen. The only good thing that will happen is to start things slowly to make traders start buying cryptocurrency again.

I'm not really fond of conspiracy theory but i read one theory about manipulating price and it seems more logical than just buy low and sell high. Here is the topic link https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.32733172 and medium link https://medium.com/@super.crypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-can-it-be-burnt-no-way-c53de65c166a which has been suspended.

I'm not saying that there exist some sort of cartel that manipulating the price rather than the state government trying to control and supress the price but camouflage themselves with other names, in the end its about making profit that matters and the logical way to think is who has much money to control the market than the market maker itself? When they start implementing futures contract for bitcoin, they can manipulate the price even without having bitcoin to sell at high. All they have to do is own much money to dump sell order in a certain price and the price will start to dropped.

And one more thing, the government already owns a large debt that increasing every year. How will they pay it if export and taxes can't cover all that interest? 

This can be possible scenario. We all have thought about it once in a while. Thanks for putting it in words.

The scenario where price is being manipulated for accumulation is very troubling because it actually takes the capital away from all small investors who put in money during FOMO runs.

I think we should start discussing how we can identify and do something about such manipulative scenarios.

1. Can we track the addresses which are making such simultaneous transactions for consolidation?
2. Is there a way to link those addresses that are supposedly involved in such consolidation? It's a given that they won't be buying off exchanges but rather directly from the miners or big holders.
3. Normal investors must say no to FOMO and only invest what they are willing to lose. That way, you don't lock your capital at ATH.

Nah! This is way above normal correction or people taking small profits with every spike in the price!! Based on the impulsive selling whenever there is a likelihood of a break out, totally make it seems there are just some cartels who have ganged up against the growth in value of bitcoin (charts don't lie, you should see the response on the candles with the dumps and the bulls hiding in their caves).

I absolutely share the same theory with you and since we had the announcement of CBOE and CME future trading, I suspected this day would come as that seemed more like the ushering in of killer whales in the market; totally different from the usual bitcoin whales we've always had. When you have a breed of manipulative investors in the market, who already have series of certificate and PhD in manipulations, my theory is that they would definitely want to drive the market down as much as they can, to be able to have a huge position for the future.

However, nothing good comes without paying some price for it, and if it keeps going like this for a while, unfortunately, the small fishes are the ones who will be suffering it, most especially when they have bought at the peak, except for those who are not bothered, understood what they are holding and already know there is a looming great future for bitcoin but we all know most new investors from last year got in to get rich quick.

What IF this is all a smoke screen?

We have seen a constant price suppression for a while now. Just as the Bitcoin price wants to break out, it is being pushed down again. Why would that be? Well, it can be several things :

~ Normal corrections.
~ People taking small profits with every spike in the price
~ Manipulation to keep the Bitcoin price low, to slow down adoption.
~ Price manipulation by people invested in Bitcoin Futures to keep the price stable.

My latest conspiracy theory is this :

Someone has seen the future They recognised that Bitcoin will be going to the Moon soon, and they want to buy as many coins as possible before this happens. How do they do that? Well, by buying a lot of coins and then gradually dumping those coins back onto the market, with every bad news that are announced.

They only need to trigger a panic response with every little dump, to push down the price. So it requires a lot less coins to do that. They cannot dump all those coins at once, because it will tank the price, so they dump it slowly.

This is where the Long Con is coming in. As soon as the price hits a All time low, they start aggressively buying back in at a much lower price again and this triggers a buying frenzy again.

Rinse and repeat and you make tons of money, selling on the way down. When it is at a all time low, they can buy back massive amounts of coins at a very low price to maximise their profit, when it goes to the moon.

This is the only thing that I can come up with, to explain the economy behind this price movement. What do you think?