Topic: What If? (Read 485 times)

it may depend on mutual agreement. but if it happens it will be a big blow for the USA. maybe the impact will be more severe than the US sanctions against Russia. because it will have an impact on the global economy, not just the USA. plus US inflation which is already very high, will exacerbate it.

It will be difficult for such countries that want to leave dollar and start using their own currency on international trade. Since dollar is more popular in the world  than any other currency which is very easy for traders to accept  in foreign exchange market.

Those countries trying to leave dollar to their own currency will experience some challenges in their economy and international market because some of the things many countries are using today are be imported from US  because many companies prefer dollars for payment than any other new currency. It will be difficult for such countries to live without dollars because some country that tried it some years ago regretted for such decision at the end of the agreement.

I think, the United States will no longer be able to exercise arbitrariness if Russia unites with other countries, including China, which are proven Anti-US.
In various cases, we have seen the dominant action of the United States.

• Buying Russian-made weapons could lead to sanctions
• US imposes sanctions on RAB
• Repeated sanctions on Russia

Seeing all this, it is clear that the United States is claiming all services.
But if its opponents unite and protest, especially if Russia forms an alliance with a commercially powerful country like China.
And if they stop accepting US dollars, then the United States will be in a state of disarray.

And yes, we've seen countries in Europe come together to form the eurozone and use the euro as a single currency.
So, it is hoped that Russia, China, and other Anti-US countries will come together to bring about a major change in the world.

Such an attempt has already been made! In Russia, since the days of the USSR, they have been playing the game "let's destroy the dollar." So far, it has only been possible to destroy the USSR and bring the Russian Federation to bankruptcy
So, after Russia deservedly stuck new sanctions, they decided to heroically "defeat the United States and collapse the dollar," and what needs to be done for this? That's right - to negotiate with China, and abandon the dollar, Yu. with particular cynicism. What is Russia doing? Russia is buying huge amounts of yuan to start "destroying the nasty US dollar". It takes only a couple of months and .. do not want to remember what happened? Let me remind you - the yuan has fallen sharply! The results of this "mega-insidious deal against the USA" turned out to be losses of the Russian Federation for many billions of dollars. And this will always happen - "shoot yourself in the foot", this is Russia's favorite entertainment And most importantly, China needs a dollar. And as China tells Russia, then they will carry their Mr. Xi in their pockets

Correct, USA on the other hand is already getting inflationary stages all over again and it could be bad if they go into some sort of war here. Loosing those billions on import export could turn the USA upside down. Believe me, USA will never go into stuff like this. With the pandemic and less seriousness of peeps in USA, the spread of disease is rogue and they would not be able to handle the medical system if this continued for more time further.

It would be like throwing oil into the fire at this stage and USA would burn inside out.

I hope that Pentagon does have these sort of soft hearted thinking, otherwise "common peeps" will face the consequences for the same.

Wrong assumption built on Russian propaganda. I explain - the Baltic countries are ALREADY IN NATO. The time for the missiles to fly, if they are placed there, is a matter of minutes. Now Finland, already bordering Russia, says "we also want to join NATO" and for some reason it is "not dangerous" for Russia, although the distance there is generally scanty. To St. Petersburg 200 km, to Moscow - up to 800 km.
Well, and most importantly, Russia invaded Ukraine, not when Ukraine wanted to join NATO, but when the Ukrainian people showed how to deal with the totalitarian, thieves, illegal authorities. And for Putin, the loss of the throne is the worst thing that can happen to him. The under-furrer of the rashists has a huge amount of paranoia and complexes, and Ukraine has become a sort of "bone in the throat" that seeks to live and develop independently, and strives for world values, and not the values ​​of half-savages, half-Nazis, as in Russia. But only then, having been attacked, Ukraine decided to keep the vector towards NATO, for ITS PROTECTION. Or is it the other way around? Arguments please!

I agree that the chances of this becoming a world war are very low but it could easily become a proxy war, and if there is something the US does not need right now is a proxy war, after all wars are very costly endeavors and the US does not have the money to spare to engage in one, and even if we know they can print as much money as they want, it is not really a good idea to do so now that inflation is so high and it will go way higher if they did something like that.

Like it or not, they are still moving in the same direction until now and indeed one country is already quite troublesome and can become a benchmark for the economy after America.
I can't imagine if this could happen.
even though they weren't very strong at first when they made their own currency now but gradually I think they could even overthrow Europe and even America.
to say they are nationalists I totally agree with what you say

It is unlikely that China is ever going to stop accepting the US dollar, after all the US is the biggest commercial partner of China and they cannot give themselves the luxury of losing it.

And if they did that then US companies will leave China in a heartbeat and move to other countries that offer cheap and qualified labor, leaving China without dollars, jobs and new technology to steal, so it is obvious they will never do something like this.

We have seen Europe getting together and building euro, and they are all using that right now so we could say that it is not impossible. If places like China and Russia get together and create a new currency, even if just those two, I am sure that they will convince some other nations as well, not a lot, not as powerful as USA or Europe, but at least it would be a good start. Just imagine only Russia and China using the same currency, that alone is scary though for Europe and definitely for the USA.

This is why it would be wiser move from them but they are too nationalistic to do something like that, both will want their own currency to be accepted by the other nation.

In my opinion this is possible, but not very likely. It would mean the escalation of the currency war and be bad for international trade. It would likely mean negative impacts on all the big economies. You are right that many countries are against the dominate position of the US Dollar and would like to change that. The problem is that all the countries would need to agree on a new currency to settle all the international trade. Both China and Russia would probably only agree if their own currency becomes the new world currency to be used. As for the smaller countries like Iran, they would probably ask for some monetary benefits to be part in the new system. The US Dollar is losing power every year, but to completely replace it it seems to early. Maybe an independent crypto currency could be the solution and a compromise for all countries.

Currently, several countries have started to use their currencies in international trade., for example, as China and Indonesia did, these two countries used Yuan and Rupiah in their transactions, they agreed not to use dollars in their transactions. However, we cannot deny that international trade still requires the dollar as a legal currency (for now), because according to the Bretton Woods agreement. It is certain that there will be many countries that will start to leave the dollar in their trade in the future but not to accept the dollar I think it is still impossible.

I answer the question.
For more than a decade, Russia has been trying to "collapse the dollar that no one needs" This is reminiscent of a screeching flea jumping on a concrete wall
More recently, somewhere in 2016-2017, Russia "found a recipe" for how it would "collapse the dollar and the US economy", I sobbed What they came up with: they decided to transfer mutual settlements with China from the dollar to ... attention - RMB. No, not the ruble - China does not need it for nothing, and Russia's desire does not bother China at all, so the yuan ... So, what does "cunning Russia" do? It buys huge amounts of yuan for dollars from China. Literally in a month or two, the yuan exchange rate collapses, the Central Bank of Russia fixes many billions in losses. The United States is watching this show of idiots from the side, smiling sweetly and continuing its policy
I also want to note - China needs a CURRENCY, and it is the dollar! The Chinese economy without a currency will collapse very quickly, and even more so in the current situation, when domestic financial bubbles begin to burst... Iran? So the United States themselves cut it off in essence from dollar settlements. In total, Russia has already shot itself in the foot, while without a currency its economy will collapse in a matter of months, China will not be able to do without the dollar either, and it cannot be replaced by rubles or Iranian rials. Iran's influence - if not 0, then about that.

And the Russian currency is not popular, yes that sanction to come down to Russia will make them there to suffer a lot and the US will remove the Russian pair from trade or pairing to trade by other countries. If the sanction come for them, that economy will seriously suffer alot also they will not be able to trade internationally with American dollar.

For a country to make such decision, it must have attain a developed and stable economical stage and China is the only country i see to have such in place and can compete with any other country including US, remember that the USD is the most recognized currency with a unique and stable economical value. China has all it dependency on itself and control its economy system without a dictator from the US. Also, China in this regards serves the only anti-USA country which has stopped accepting USD but only it Yuan.

Yes most of the time it is not like US can't manufacturer such that they import but for certain reasons, they can decide to get it from another country if it is cheaper to get it there. And if sanction is given, they now focus there energy in production of that or solicit for any country supplying that product.

USD is a base currency in most currency pairs and across many nations USD is used to give value to most currencies  internationally and the base for currency conversion so definitely if Russia gets sanctioned again their currency will definitely devaluate should in case countries tries taking side with them to enable do business without USD the suffer similar devaluation because US remains the world power

 The USA has enough power to build most stuff themselves, that's a reality. They get some stuff from china because that is cheaper to do and that is how they make money, some pencil that you can get for 10 cents per each on a ten thousand order, becomes 20-25 cents at least, when you do it in the nation. So that is the reason why most capitalists go to China and deal with that. But if they start doing it in the USA because China stops taking dollars? Well then there would be tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands of jobs starting out and that would help both employees and also salaries as well since people could find jobs easier.

Doing so, at present moment would not be very wise.  There's a reason that the US dollar is the worlds reserve currency and that's because the United States has the worlds best economy.  Personally I don't see that changing any time soon. 

This whole US / Ukraine deal is a mess and I hope that it ends sooner rather than later.  Personally I'm sick of these countries be shit to one another.  I just don't understand why we can't all work together and get along.  Things would be so much better that way.

Shocked with the what if and the answers. This is mostly the discussions while in front of a lot of beers. 
So what if? It will be a hard hit with their economy especially with China. Not that I think it's only US that orders great deal of production from them but other countries are also paying up in the same currency because that is the widely accepted one. You say "dollar" it will always be USD on their mind. That's the first thought. It will be a worldwide economic problem as they are still on top of the currency chain. (food chain)

I do not think Ukraine is that important to escalate a world war. There is not much Russian interest there except Ukraine from joining NATO. Nobody wants to have a hostile neighbor. It will be wise for Ukraine to be a buffer state if he doesn't want to be the meat in the sandwich. Putin just showing off his power to the Russian nationalist because he doesn't have any gains to show his people. This tension to become a world war is near to zero.

Good for the global economy that the countries that are "anti-USA" are hell holes with developing economies not large enough to compete with some U.S. states. USD does not have any issues in the near future in regards to trade. No matter the invasion of Ukraine, China will continue to do business with the U.S.

Inflation is largely the concern, USD won't take a hit because Russia decides to tank their economy further with a pointless war. Only reason for a spiral would be if the situation in Ukraine escalates beyond just the two countries, forcing the U.S. to get involved.

USA is not on the right track to be honest. First the economical burden is rising all the time due to pandemic situation and secondly they are going towards inflationary world.

I think this is really bad to see USA is sanctioning proposals which are more threats to them. I’m surprised to see that USA has made multi billion business deals with china and if they loose the china deal then GOD knows what USA could turn into?

Inflated country which is having lowered economic growth. Can’t imagine this with USA.

What happens is that the US has always had a dominant position when it comes to the power of its economy that they are used to try to get their way using those kind of measures, which is no that bad, after all if the other options include going to war against Russia then a few sanctions to weaken their economy are not as bad as them, however those very same sanctions could become the reason why Russia decides to eventually attack and annex Ukraine as they would want to offset the costs of those sanctions that way.

I don't think if Russia occupies Ukraine then America or NATO will be fully involved in the war.  They can co-operate with Ukraine with arms and money.  Even when Russia occupied Crimea, we did not see any US or NATO direct involvement in the war.  America knows very well that the situation is not the same as before.  Even if the United States were ahead in terms of a single power, if Russia and China joined together, the United States could lose its leadership over the world.  Inflation and corona attacks are also destroying the US economy.  In such a scenario, America would never want to engage in a war where their interests are not directly harmed.


If they really take such a measure then they will surely build an infrastructure to replace US dollars supremacy. They just can not declare that they will accept the US dollar no more which will be politically inconvenient for them. But Russia already suffered due to US sanctions to them over the decade and still manage to survive that harsh conditions. So I will not be surprised if they really take such a measure with china and other Anti-USA countries.

China became the world's largest economy and the USA economy weakened due to history's worst inflation, Putin and Xi Jinping could see this as an opportunity to destroy USA dominance over the world.

They always think about that USA will always be the supreme power towards economy that's why they think about other countries will suffer if they limit their trades on thay specific country, but actually as you said this could backfire to them knowing Russia is a big country and they can boycott America together with countries who has alliance with Russia so I think this could affect the economy of USA so proper actions is needed here. And lets hope that there's no war will burst on conflicted countries.

Technically they can do that, however, will it be successful? I doubt it. As much as they the US, still the dollar still reign supreme in the world economy so I don't think that there actions will put a dent on the US. On the contrary, it could back fire on them as no one might want to trade with them if they are not going to use the Dollar.

It is possible, of course, but with the amount of leverage the US has with other countries, the result would be detrimental rather than beneficial to the country. The Unites States of America remains as the most powerful country in the world. It remains very influential in world affairs.

Everything would boil down to asking, what would a country gain or lose if it rejects the USD in trades and other international dealings? For now at least, the loss would be unbearable. The gains might be minimal to none at all. The rejection of the USD will have a tremendous ripple effect to the country which would include trade, loans, grants, foreign investments, military, and so on.


Nope, the US Dollar is the official currency of El Salvador. It is the country's legal tender.

Theoretically it's possible for Russia and China to bind their national currencies at a fixed rate and trade between each other by using their own national currencies.Returning to the Gold standard isn't an option,because both countries lack enough gold reserves.
Nobody is saying that two countries can trade with each other only by using USD or euro as a medium of exchange.
Moving away from the SWIFT system will be a little harder for Russia and China.Building a new payment infrastructure would require lots of resources and improved security.
Insulating Russia and China from the western world would bring them more damage than benefit.

Instead of not accepting the US dollar I think that if they want to get back at the US for their sanctions the easiest thing they could is to begin to use the reserves they have in dollars, this will raise the level of inflation at the US as eventually those dollars find their way back to the US worsening the economic prospects of the US in the process.

Also if they did what you suggested that will be the equivalent of declaring an open economic war against the US, which they probably do not want, but if they began to use their reserves instead then no one could blame them for the higher level of inflation the US will have to face.

That will be a political decision that would cut their own face..as they say. The rest of the world accepted the US Dollar as a global reserve currency, so they would effectively harm those countries too. The other countries might be neutral and a decision like this will alienate them and they will also start with sanctions and/or trade restrictions against these countries. 

It is not impossible to do this, but the ripple affect in the global economy will do them more harm than good in the end. China and Russia are dependent on a lot of resources from other countries too. 

It's bad for the whole world when these little kingdoms start appearing - it only benefits a few "elites" sat at the top. Russia has an economy which is a similar size to Italy, which is strange for the largest country in the world by land mass, it shows the sheer incompetence of the leadership that they would rather bully neighbors and run their little oligarchies while the average Russian lives a tough life. Iran is a very beautiful country and it's a shame that Israel holds so much sway over America and that they both feel the need to be enemies, however it is even more economically stunted because of decades of sanctions. China is already allies of convenience with Russia, but would switch that in a second if it benefits them, as they got rich by selling to other developed countries and that is where they make the most money - they'll definitely take Russian resources however.

Sanctions against Russia are accepted not only by the United States, but also by their NATO partners and the European Union. Therefore, boycotting the dollar will not help much here. It's not just about dollars. Russia will be banned from importing high-tech goods, and because it depends heavily on it, its economy will simply collapse. After all, if a part of industrial goods is produced in Russia, then all the same, part of the components is purchased abroad. If we jointly block access to such components correctly, not a single state will be able to cope with this in the coming years. So everything will collapse like a house of cards.
Putin's government is leading its country to an inevitable collapse.

Does it really even matter? I mean China is already a nation that benefits from using dollars, if they stopped doing it, would that hurt USA? Of course, but it is obvious that it would hurt China even more because that is how they get rich. They manufacture stuff, sell it to the whole world and get dollars in return, making them hold more dollars than even USA in the future.

So, I would guess that there is a good case to be made for China to keep using it, but even if they did stop, that would not really hurt the USA as much as it would hurt their opponents. Same goes for Iran, they are already not trading with USA anyway, so it wouldn't change much. We have to accept the fact that even though China is growing in power, the type of power China has and the type of power USA has will always be different, and that is why China could never blackmail too big countries, maybe some small one in Africa, but not the USA, the UK, France, Germany etc etc.

That will only happen if the Russians decide to attack Ukraine. Which is highly likely. Now Ukraine has an extremely small army and they would not be able to defend for sure. It's important to actually sort these things out because at the end this could not just involve Russia and Ukraine but can also cause the start of a new world war. If this can be attained by doing things like sanctions and not deploying the troops and fighting on the border then I do think that's good. Their currency is falling and I do think that cryptos would be helpful for the people during this time.

If there is a possibility that such could be achieved and the dollar will be replaced with what currency ? That is a question. And if we are thinking that the yuan will play that role, I will doubt that because yuan is not global standard and countries behind China is relatively low compared to the US. US is a friend to many countries including Europe and that will be a tough nut to crack. Dollar exchange is easily done than many other currency, America is the world power leader and won't allow that to happen because currency stand as a strength that can be used to control and manipulate every other thing.

It will have impact, seeing your currencies not accepted by any country is an insult. This already happened before and they did destroy the country who tried to do that. They don't care much about the currency but it represents their country, not acknowledging their money means also you don't acknowledge them as a whole. You remember Lebanon (Col. Gadhafi), He said paper money isn't worth at all, and they want their Oil paid in terms of gold, and look what they have done to their country now. I don't know in the case of China and other allies of Russia, because USA can't easily penetrate those super Power Countries, they will be having a hard time. If they can't do more damage to countries using sanctions then they will fine other ways like using CIA and methods, China is a Communist Country and it will be hard as hell to inject them with something to destroy the core of their(beliefs) Nation. It is not like other any democratic country where you could put rallies on the road and demonstrations, it is different.

 The dollar is seen as one of the safest investments in the world and I don’t think it can be replaced by another currency despite the issue that there are countries like China, Russia and the European Union that have a strong motivation to de-dollarize.
 If ever those counties really don't want to use dollar to avoid U.S sanction, maybe it will happen but just in a short period of time because U.S is still a powerful country.

I doubt that these countries will do that, for a while we used to hear about the alliance of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) that confront the United States economically, but we no longer hear anything about that alliance now. It is difficult to stand up to the United States and the dollar, even the countries that It is hostile to the United States and is working to stabilize the dollar because it is an indicator of the stability of the global economic system. In the event of the dollar's collapse, no one can guess what will happen? Perhaps the economies of these countries will collapse as well, so I don't think they will think about that unless they think about finding an alternative to the dollar.

And how do you know he is not sure of what he is asking ?
You trying to add to what he's saying or you're here to criticize ?
The dollar definitely will get old and nobody will want to use it, in the new phase ahead they have to accept the what the future brings, failure to this might lead to a bad situation.
If china can do with the US dollars, then what are we not saying ? It'll only take longer time for this to come through.

Russia has been under sanctions for years, and even if the US and its vassals impose some new ones, after so long it will not mean much to Russia. If we look at who are the most important trade partners, then we see that China is dominant (imports & exports), while significant places are occupied by the Netherlands, Germany and Belarus (data for 2017). The US may influence Germany or the Netherlands in their decisions, but China, as its most important trading partner, has never and will not support any sanctions against Russia.


This is an option that is on the table and has already been announced by Russia in light of recent events. So even though it would have been expected earlier that all those countries to which the US is constantly imposing sanctions and creating problems will reject US $, it does not seem that this is something they want to do so easily. The US has too much influence in the world, and as much as someone dislikes them it’s hard to get out of their grip.


I remembered one piece of news from 2019 -> Russia's Rosneft to switch to euros in oil products tenders - traders

How do you know that US is thinking of such a thing? I believe your assumption or speculation is not true and if peradventure is come to pass then the effects will not be as much as you think because the bon of contention will be resolved amicably to avoid further excavation of its effect.

Russia, Iran, Venezuela are also some of the largest oil exporter countries that are anti-USA. So I do not think all of them need to boycott USD to make a difference in the world economy. Russia exports 11% and Iran 4% of the world's total oil production. Crude oil is the being the most demanded commodity that the world needs to run their machinery right now. So a little bit of disruption in supply could shake the economy.

If any country stops the import and export the loss is for their economy as well, we can't always see from the revenge perspective in the world political the leaders know how to handle them smooth and just keep them in pending so their economy won't be in critical position until their ruling period ends.

Russia relies heavily on oil price but they are well above their break even price now so they are making plenty of money to top up their 650 billion dollar cash reserve.Plenty of countries will keep buying their oil and Germany no matter what anyone says will ensure nordstream is operational bypassing ukraine.This is what the real issue is about and not so much the waring factions.Ukraine is buthurtabout not being a middleman for european gas transit.Russia has more agricultural landmass than any country and could easily reduce its 40% to 20% regaarding imported foodstuff.The US is a dying empire who cannot even beat towel headed extremists driving pickups.The EU is only an experiment for central bankers and european aristocrats which in the end will either self destruct or be ran over by Russia or China.The EU is now an autocratic bloc ran by scummy fuckers their citizens hate.

I remember reading news articles about russia seeking ways to insulate its economy from SWIFT banking networks many years ago. There have been many journalistic pieces published on russia seeking ways to de dollarize and distance itself from being pegged to the dollar as an international reserve currency. Likewise, russia has had many years to find solutions to economic sanctions.

Its surprising to me russia's economy hasn't become more hardened against crashes over the years considering they appear to have had support at the highest levels seeking answers for how to deal with these types of crisis.

Does anyone know which commodities or assets russia is dependant upon foreign nation's for?

I think russia has a scarcity of food production. They're forced to rely on china for food imports. That appears to be one key issue they have been unable to resolve. Wouldn't the simple solution be for russia to grow more food? But somehow it to doesn't appear to be so easy. Putin doesn't appear able to make it happen. It makes no sense to me. Russia is such a massive territory on maps, do they really have no farmland? The poor american in me fails to comprehend this situation at all.

There could be a war if that will happen and many economies will crash once dollars fall down.
Maybe because the function of this  US financial system is to facilitate dollar denominated transactions.  And when it comes at the point dollar will become denominated, all transactions lost their value all together with the US financial system.  There could be suffering consequences if your what if will happen.

AFAIK, countries didn't accept dollars are include Republic of El Salvador which is are now embracing Bitcoin and there are more of them.

Then their economy crashes, people riot, government dissolves, etc. They don't get to choose which currency to accept, because they are economically weak. Sure, they can trade between themselves with whatever currency they want, but they are very reliant on trade with the West. These countries from time to time actually talk how they plan to ditch the US dollar, and so far nothing like that happened.

They'll seek help from China as it's now one of the big countries that can help them to improve their economy. But knowing that this is Russia having sanctions, I think that they can handle it alone, they're also a large country that has resources and they won't stop since they're also competing against the USA. 

Turkey stopped the connection to the USA and USA has given them the impact that they don't like. Maybe similar can happen to their economy but we don't know yet exactly how it will go until we see it.

You would be talking about a bunch of countries that would, in theory, form a group and decide that they would want to boycott the USA by not accepting US.

The first obstacle is that USD is widely accepted because you can buy crude oil with it. Just like that. The easiest way to boycott dollar would come from oil producing countries. An guess what, a large number of them are actually allies of US because they fear other more and their rules do really well with Capitalism.

Most large companies in the US have subsidiaries in the EU - so they can just use European currencies. I doubt much will actually change if China decided to "stop" accepting dollars (even though it probably doesn't have power to do that and doesn't want anyone holding its own currency for long).

We recently saw the USA is thinking about another sanction to Russia. We know this will take a negative impact on Russia's economy. But what if Russia ally like a chain, Iran and other countries stop accepting US dollars for import and export goods from other countries. We all know China has one of the biggest markets in the world and in 2020 USA imported $434.7 billion worth of goods from China. So what will happen if the Anti-USA countries agreed to this and stop accepting us dollars. Actually, I want to know is it possible for them to do that? What is your opinion about it?