What if all the money in the world entered the cryptocurrency market? - page 3.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: DdmrDdmr on October 10, 2021, 08:29:01 AM

After Satoshi announced the release of Bitcoin v0.1, Hal Finney replied, citing amongst other things the following:

Quote

<…>
As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.

Unfortunately, his thinking was flawed. The total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the money in the world. Money is only a small portion of wealth, as you noted.

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Quote from: Sebastian Michaelis on October 08, 2021, 04:03:54 PM

This question has been on my mind at this times ..
Will we see the price of Bitcoin at fantastic prices? i'm talking about +1.000.000$ For 1 BTC

You don't have to think about everyone in the world but just imagine if there were 1000 people or 1000 big institutional investor like MicroStrategy who were willing to buy bitcoin in bulk wouldn't the price be fantastic? I'm sure you have the answer.

Quote from: Sebastian Michaelis on October 08, 2021, 04:03:54 PM

And then what will happen to the other currencies (ALTS) ?

Ignore most of the altcoin as you should know that they will generally not be a viable currency due to the lack of real functionality in terms of usage and adoption. Of course altcoin price will get influence due to bitcoin price movement and will increase market cap but when it comes to usability then bitcoin come first.

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Although it's only an if situation because we know that it will never happen because there are other investment assets that will remain to be a high option for most investors.

Quote from: Dhoe on October 10, 2021, 09:03:58 AM

if it happened that all the money in the world went into the crypto market, in my personal opinion, this would be a problem for bitcoin, because there is no more freedom, what is certain is that if it did happen, it would definitely be controlled by the rich, and those who have power, so my movement as a middle class person will find it difficult to compete with people who have power, and have wealth, I think this is a bad idea..

This is actually happening everywhere right now. We're actually living to be with the whales and whatever they do to the market, we'll just be followers.

fiulpro

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If all the money into the world entered the cryptocurrencies I do think that would be extremely unstable. Since we would definately have people who would not be able to use cryptocurrencies, the people who have small business, poor people are well, would defiantly be excluded from the whole economy for the time being.

Then we might have to think about *volatility*, more people means more money flowing in and out of the market, which does mean the stability might be overthrown.

The governments will for sure try and dominate the bitcoins as well, which would end up in a war perse since the countries would be fighting with each other to have the upper hand, ending up in making countries like US, UK dominant. This might end up bad.

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It’s not definite yet as the market will be monitored by the government all throughout if all money will be moved in crypto. It’s not that the government will allow it to happen but if ever it happens the sense of being decentralized of the market will be gone. It will take a while before the market moves in pump or dump as the market will just seems to be a normal currency with stable value just like how Forex works it may moved when traded in other countries currency but in just a minimal movement unlike how crypto or bitcoin moves now.

Dhoe

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if it happened that all the money in the world went into the crypto market, in my personal opinion, this would be a problem for bitcoin, because there is no more freedom, what is certain is that if it did happen, it would definitely be controlled by the rich, and those who have power, so my movement as a middle class person will find it difficult to compete with people who have power, and have wealth, I think this is a bad idea..

DdmrDdmr

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Actually, possibly the first publicly know exercise of the kind was made by Hal Finney back in 2009. At the time. With bitcoin just recently out of the oven, Hal toyed with the idea of all the world wealth being fed into bitcoin (something logically unreal, since wealth is stored in many forms, and only some could actually liquidate to bitcoin purchases under a reasonable conceptual scenario). His numbers would take each BTC to 10M$ (2009 numbers):

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on January 05, 2021, 12:01:35 PM

High price per bitcoin was even speculated, or at least tossed around as a potential, back in 2009.

After Satoshi announced the release of Bitcoin v0.1, Hal Finney replied, citing amongst other things the following:

Quote

<…>
One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even
ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it
at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable
argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Hal

https://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2009-January/015004.html

Seems to have been on the mind of core people around the beginning, although through Hal’s words.

Note: Hal performed his exercise considering a 20M bitcoin supply. Whether that was a simplification, an oversight (strange, as 21M was mentioned by Satoshi on the post Hal answered to), or due to inner knowledge on 1M bitcoins never being movable (i.e. lost or thrown away keys) is a wonder …

First speculative arguments for HODL …

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Quote from: odolvlobo on October 10, 2021, 06:36:43 AM

It certainly is possible, but it is not likely. If people believe that Bitcoin is the best form of money then they will use it instead of fiat. If everyone switches to Bitcoin, then it will replace all other currencies.

Maybe some people will realize that in xx years from today, but what about countries like China, India, or the US which will not allow something like that at any cost? I'm not pessimistic about BTC, quite the opposite - but we need to be realistic about what is possible, and what has less than a 0.1% chance of ever happening.

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Quote from: Lucius on October 10, 2021, 06:19:33 AM

I don't understand why people ask questions like this when it should be clear to everyone that something like this will never be possible.

It certainly is possible, but it is not likely. If people believe that Bitcoin is the best form of money then they will use it instead of fiat. If everyone switches to Bitcoin, then it will replace all other currencies.

Lucius

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I don't understand why people ask questions like this when it should be clear to everyone that something like this will never be possible. If I say that maybe at best 10% of people living in the world know how to say two meaningful sentences about Bitcoin, and that maybe 2-3% know something more, and only maybe 1% have above-average knowledge - in which universe does someone think that all the money in the world goes to Bitcoin?

Let's be more realistic and think in the billions or maybe trillions that will no doubt be invested in Bitcoin in the future, but it will still be just a fraction of the money that exists in the world.

Spack17

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A 1 million dollar price is not a dream for Bitcoin in the future. It is a level that is easy to achieve I think. Because the demand for Bitcoin is continuing to rise very quickly every year. And not only the demand, but also Bitcoin adoption continues to rise. These factors are the number one criteria for Bitcoin to survive and even reach bigger levels. Maybe Bitcoin won't exist forever but before that I feel confident about the price to reach million-dollar levels.

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 09, 2021, 05:23:15 PM

Major governments simply won't allot such thing to happen, they will fight tooth and nail to stop Bitcoin from replacing fiat money, and they can do it very effectively. How can Bitcoin replace fiat if governments won't allow any legal business to accept it as a currency? Either all business will have to switch to black market, which is absurd, or people will need to rise against such government, but why would people do that if almost no one cares about Bitcoin? China banned Bitcoin recently, and there has been no protests from the people.

Maybe, let us be grateful that for now, bitcoin and other alts can co-exist with the traditional fiat.
It may not replace the traditional fiat system but the adoption is growing each day.
I don't think that we will see it in our lifetime that crypto will be the major player in the financial system.
The decentralized nature of btc is one of the major reasons why it can't replace fiat.
The government wants their full control when it comes to financial aspect of their country.

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Quote from: Sebastian Michaelis on October 08, 2021, 04:03:54 PM

Will we see the price of Bitcoin at fantastic prices? i'm talking about +1.000.000$ For 1 BTC

I very much doubt that will happen, it's hard for everyone in the world to buy bitcoin anytime soon, maybe 20 years from now, but we have to realize that bitcoin won't be the best forever, people currently buy bitcoin just because of big profits, but when it's about using bitcoin as a means of payments the rates are very high compared to some altcoins and in the future people will want currencies that have cheaper rates to use as a means of payment.

Quote from: Sebastian Michaelis on October 08, 2021, 04:03:54 PM

And then what will happen to the other currencies (ALTS) ?

probably altcoins started to be bitcoin independent

Quote from: Sebastian Michaelis on October 08, 2021, 04:03:54 PM

Will this be a positive thing for cryptocurrency!
Or is there risks and negative things that will happen in this market?

it will be something positive for the market

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Quote from: Sebastian Michaelis on October 08, 2021, 04:03:54 PM

This question has been on my mind at this times ..
Will we see the price of Bitcoin at fantastic prices? i'm talking about +1.000.000$ For 1 BTC
And then what will happen to the other currencies (ALTS) ?
Will this be a positive thing for cryptocurrency!
Or is there risks and negative things that will happen in this market?
Because eventually there is a chance that this will happen
I mean If Crypto-currencies win and become one of the foundations of the new economic system.
Not Today , Not Tomorrow ,But this will happen .
Think about it ! It will be a good opportunity if we invest a small amount and leave it to our grandchildren in the future Wink

The question you are asking is wrong from the very beginning, you are asking what would happen if all the money of the world came to this market and this is not possible as there are many other markets that need money as well and as such investors will also invest in those markets, maybe what you meant is what if all the wealth of the world was denominated in bitcoin? Basically this will be an scenario in which all fiat currencies disappeared and bitcoin reigns supreme, and even that scenario is unlikely as governments will do everything to protect their fiat currencies from that fate.

hatshepsut93

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Major governments simply won't allot such thing to happen, they will fight tooth and nail to stop Bitcoin from replacing fiat money, and they can do it very effectively. How can Bitcoin replace fiat if governments won't allow any legal business to accept it as a currency? Either all business will have to switch to black market, which is absurd, or people will need to rise against such government, but why would people do that if almost no one cares about Bitcoin? China banned Bitcoin recently, and there has been no protests from the people.

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Quote from: Sebastian Michaelis on October 08, 2021, 04:03:54 PM

This question has been on my mind at this times ..
Will we see the price of Bitcoin at fantastic prices? i'm talking about +1.000.000$ For 1 BTC
And then what will happen to the other currencies (ALTS) ?

like you said. anything can happen in crypto. But just imagining 1m/btc first that crossed my mind, what is the total fee for each transaction? $1k? Grin

because the fee on the exchange is currently around $50. what is certain is that if bitcoin goes up, the average altcoin will follow which is a good thing.

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Quote from: verita1 on October 09, 2021, 03:22:13 PM

I think we are at the beginning of great changes in the world where bitcoin and the crypto market are playing an important role.

I second that, the opportunity to be your own bank which the Bitcoin network affords its users is somewhat underrated, I mean, it's the real definition of freedom and control of assets, and on top of that the network is a hedge against inflation/devaluation, in my opinion every individual should enjoy such pros, thus this would continue to allure more and more individuals to the network, as well as institutions that will most prolly take the price to great heights, it could even be over $1,000,000 like the OP suggests, there are no boundaries/limits for the Bitcoin network.

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I don't think money around the world is going to the crypto market. But I am sure that I am investing in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for the future of my smallest relatives.
That has been my motivation to invest in the long term because cryptocurrencies are here to stay.
I think we are at the beginning of great changes in the world where bitcoin and the crypto market are playing an important role.

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Quote from: Sebastian Michaelis on October 08, 2021, 04:03:54 PM

This question has been on my mind at this times ..
Will we see the price of Bitcoin at fantastic prices? i'm talking about +1.000.000$ For 1 BTC
And then what will happen to the other currencies (ALTS) ?
Will this be a positive thing for cryptocurrency!
Or is there risks and negative things that will happen in this market?
Because eventually there is a chance that this will happen
I mean If Crypto-currencies win and become one of the foundations of the new economic system.
Not Today , Not Tomorrow ,But this will happen .
Think about it ! It will be a good opportunity if we invest a small amount and leave it to our grandchildren in the future Wink

How can all the money in this world enter into the cryptocurrencies? At first we need full/total adoption of informational technologies and securities on highest levels. Then, the money can't exist in decentralized way in a centralized world/government/society, otherwise it will be total anarchy and humans are kind of creatures that need leader, someone to control them.
Also, along with USD, there is Euro, GBP and other currencies. In overall, we can calculate the price of 1 bitcoin if all the money is put in it but if money is put in altcoins too along with bitcoin, we need to know ratio at first. But really, it's just impossible to predict because this task is very, very complex.

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Having a positive mind is good, but the same needs to be realistic. The marketcap of the cryptocurrency network altogether is very small compared to the marketcap of the traditional fiat around the globe. So, thinking about the entire money of the world into cryptocurrency is simply senseless. Once there were discussion that world's richest people will acquire the entire cryptocurrency holdings and will make the network centralized. Some believed in it, whereas the people who knew well about the functioning of the cryptocurrency network will never believe it.

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