Topic: What if crypto mining is outlawed ? (Read 676 times)

This is probably what it is driving them crazy, they are so powerful and so rich and they can get away with almost anything that they want and yet they cannot kill bitcoin, they have tried every single measure that they can think of to try to destroy it and they have failed, so they are trying to deceive people into not adopting bitcoin by spreading lies about it, and I think they will have some limited success, but at the end the fundamentals of bitcoin are so strong that it is unstoppable and sooner or later it is going to be adopted by the majority of the population.

I don’t really get why some of these countries are proposing a ban on Bitcoin mining. OK, a lot of them have said that Bitcoin mining consumes a lot of energy, but according to research we all know that this is not true, because Bitcoin mining consumes lesser energy than most other industries.

If you should check the energy consumption chart online you will see that the energy that is being consumed by Bitcoin is way less than so many industries out there like the building and construction, these industries consumes way more energy than Bitcoin, but no one is talking about it. But rather they have decided to focus on Bitcoin and trying to ban it just for a reason that isn’t true at all. Instead of banning Bitcoin they should just look for a better way to upgrade and maybe we can move to solar energy or any other green Energy source.

In Europe, they are calling for a ban on only energy-intensive mining of cryptocurrencies with the PoW algorithm due to the energy crisis and the need to combat abrupt climate change due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. It is possible that this type of mining will be banned. But I think that not all states will make such a decision and, in addition, there are always many more places on our planet where mining can be continued.
For mining cryptocurrency with PoS algorithm and others, where relatively little energy is consumed, I think there is no danger.

Prohibition of crypto mining would be illogical. The generation of new crypto will be affected by this prohibition. Mining is just solving complex mathematical problems by computers. Stopping this would only limit technological development.

That there are countries who have decided to ban Bitcoin mining, doesn’t mean that other countries are also going to do the same thing. So, I like the point you made, if one country bans Bitcoin mining, the Bitcoin mining facilities will quickly move to another country where it is legal for them to mine Bitcoin, making sure they have the resources that they are going to need for that.

Although earlier this year we all thought that Russia was going to ban cryptocurrency mining, but luckily enough they changed their mind and decided that it was going to be legal and would be mined in some of their states. So there isn’t really going to be a time where all the countries will ban Bitcoin entirely, Bitcoin mining is also legal in US and I don’t think they are going to ban it with the way things are going.

As the saying goes, if one door closes another opens.
The approach towards crypto varies from one country to another.
So if one country totally bans crypto mining, there will be more countries that are more crypto friendly.
Hence, it won't be a major catastrophe if one country bans crypto mining.
We have seen the effect of China banning its crypto miners, knowing how big was their influence in crypto mining.
And yet, life goes on in crypto industry. Just another bump in so many obstacles that crypto has to overcome with.

The ban only means that somewhere else it is possible to remove such a ban or simply place mining facilities there. This has already happened with the People's Republic of China - when, after the ban, miners of cryptocurrencies went to look for new, more profitable places to work. As I understand it, they temporarily found such a place in Kazakhstan, but after the well-known events, such people are increasingly looking towards Russia, since all the conditions for mining are available there today.

Actually the government can only ban larger miners, not small ones. The government can’t find out small miners because their electricity usage isn’t distinct and they can hide their connections with VPNs.

Rich people, business owners/competitors can influence media services and tell lies for the sake of money. They have nothing to do but to ruin the image of Bitcoin by throwing negative news and pretending that they got scammed.

Well, hearing this story isn't new to us but unfortunately, they won't stop attacking Bitcoin for they are still a loser by looked. No matter what they do, they can't stop crypto and they will fail what they have planned.

Only thing certain such a scenario is that Diff would drop like a stone and the few miners left will be popping blocks left and right... In the case of BTC still only 1 every 10 min on average but with far fewer folks being able to mine the odds of any 1 person getting it will go up dramatically.

This is propaganda and nothing else, they know that they cannot destroy bitcoin directly so they are doing what they have always done, trying to throw dirt to their enemies, in a way we are lucky that satoshi is still anonymous, because if he was not then I am sure that the media will keep on attacking him, but since they cannot do that then they attack bitcoin saying that is not good for the environment and other lies when in fact bitcoin is incredibly efficient when compared to the banking system.

I think mining activity should be outlawed, because no one is harmed directly by it, I mean, mining could become a real job one day. After all, with the presence of miners, their existence will strengthen the work of the blockchain itself, in a certain ratio. So I don't agree with those who limit mining activities in their area, just free opinions, not meant to offend.

Mining is a business and it will not stop, there are always countries that will accept that people mine in their country. this issue of electricity consumption is a very pointless subject to debate, banks also spend electricity, there are companies that spend a lot of electricity and pollute the environment and little is said about it, some journalists and people of extreme humor continue to speak badly of cryptocurrency mining ignore the damage that other companies are doing

Mining is dependent on the price not the other way around.
Plus, unlike oil the price will not rise like in the case of half of the OPEC cutting drilling, after one epoch and difficulty adjustment the network will run just as it did previously, 1 million miners or 10 000 after adjustments it will be the same, the only thing that will change will be the security of the network.


Yeah, that's what you're going to believe if you trust the bs Bukele spreads all day..
He claimed he had a 200MW drilled and ready to mine bitcoin back in July...where is it?

Salvador total energy production from geothermal (cause Vulcano energy is geothermal) is just 644 MW, assuming all that will be used for mining so current users will have to switch to something else, and 100% capacity factor you have 5Twh. Compared to 200, is 2.5%.

Countries editing the power? At what price? 

if crypto mining is banned I think the price will skyrocket because if mining is banned it will be difficult to get crypto assets without buying but I think miners will still be there even if they are banned because there are so many smart and creative people who will look for flaws and find ways to mine without known.

I would rather have us not get ahead of ourselves in this assumption. I understand the fear of many but we have also seen cryptocurrencies adopted as a legal tender, well Bitcoin to be precise so if this is the case, maybe just that one country will be the haven for all miners peradventure what you are thinking happens which I doubt anyways will happen besides I believe other countries even if they have not adopted Bitcoin as a legal tender but they are not against it either, so I believe we are good.

When China made a ban on Cryptocurrency mining, people moved towards Iran. Now there is some power issues and 80% of the miners are running it illegally. Now the active miners of Iran will look for some other country that support it. With mining when someone leaves, there are people ready to occupy the space. At any point cryptocurrency mining isn't gonna outlawed even if countries gets united. There are power issues and companies are working on it to make cryptocurrency mining power efficient.

In the end, a country that prohibits its residents from doing crypto mining will not stop the population using cypto. Because just like
the residents of China where their country's government forbids crypto mining, Finally, it was found that many Chinese residents moved
their mining place to other countries or even Chinese residents did it in secret. Even though if it is legalized there will be benefits that
the Chinese government can get, starting from the increase in tax income and also the economy of the Chinese population will be much
more improved. Sometimes as the holder of power, they have to be able to think wisely and be able to make decisions that do not harm
the population. It seems that the Chinese government is too selfish and did not think long about the decision to ban crypto mining.
Don't let China regret seeing other countries that legalize crypto mining,  because the country has progressed, and the economy has
increased significantly.

Now, that we have a country which makes bitcoin as legal tender, it won't be very hard for other miners to think where they will go if situation becomes worst in their region. So I don't think it is in the best interest of those countries that are planning to ban these miners. Look at what happen when China banned their miners, some just went to other neighboring countries but others I believe, some are operating underground as there is still hashrate shown from China. Also, btc keeps surviving even without their participation, considering that China a very big country.

You are right, in fact this would be a great deal for El Salvador, also that there will always be ways to mine BTC so that everyone can have their transactions quickly and safely, in the case of Venezuela their government is mining, and has such control It is It is very good that everyone who decides to engage in mining has to register with SUNACRIP, this as to maintain control, otherwise if they do not do so it would be considered almost a crime, where the person or persons will be imprisoned.

If there's a possibility that mining gets banned, then that can only mean that bitcoin would go up in prices and with mining being banned, a lot of the equipment for it is going to get expensive because people will still mine no matter what and they will find a way, if you make something illegal and there's a big demand for it then expect that the prices get affected.

True that. Even after China banned the mining of Bitcoin, has it not recovered after then? all this negative news will always follow Bitcoin for now until there is no other negative FUD to peddle about Bitcoin and as you said until it actually happens that crypto mining has been banned all over those countries which I also think is unlikely, it is good to have a positive mindset about your investment so you don't act irrationally.   

This changes nothing. It will just re-direct the whole power to the countries where mining is still strong enough and legal. For example, imagine El Salvador where bitcoin is considered as legal tender, it will get the upper hand and thus gain the whole and sole power to mine the crypto. Stopping the crypto mining won't stop the use of the crypto currencies in any country as it is online, and it can not be practically banned or stopped from using.

So left over mining power and followed by it's reward, will be given to El Salvador (example). Imagine they have will have huge amount of assets in their hands.

If other countries do this, then they will be dropping the axe on their own legs!

They will pronounce it illegal if that will harm us but since it could provide us a good living for miners, that is certainly impossible it will be banned globally. That what-if question is only for those who are doubtful in the market and only the thing they just think is negative.

Cryptocurrencies have been grown wild and getting spread across the globe which means that every government is already aware of its capabilities. And upon seeing the support of some countries (developing countries) the more we are comfortable that the crypto mining industry will grow as well.

Unless crypto mining was made illegal worldwide, which is EXTREMELY unlikely, then it would remain in the world. Miners would just go to different countries where mining is allowed.  So even if somehow it was worldwide illegal, we would still find ways around it. But if there were absolutely no ways around it and no ways to mine, even secretly, then we would just have to accept it and find new ways to keep the blockchain going.

Struggle fuels innovation.

From the perspective of these countries, they believe that bitcoin mined with their own resources will be exchanged for dollars triggered at any time. With the continuous issuance of US dollars, the price of bitcoin has been soaring. After their nationals bought bitcoin, the value of bitcoin fell, and finally the assets in people's hands decreased. These countries believe that their resources have been stolen. I guess so.

With the amount of money pouring into the space, it is highly improbable that all nations will ban bitcoin simultaneously. Bitcoin operates under game theory, so that there will always be certain governments taking advantage of it if they see others shunning it, given that it is a decentralized protocol that can never, in practice at least, be eradicated - with heightened rewards for miners the more of them drop out, by choice or by force. And even if all nations banned bitcoin simultaneously, underground miners would operate to mine bitcoin and keep the network running.

Again, in practice bitcoin cannot be banned everywhere at the same time.

Where others see risk someone else will see an opportunity, it is going to be almost impossible to have a complete ban of mining all over the world, at some point some countries will look at the mining industry and will see in it a way to get revenue, and as such they will allow miners to stay in their country, now this could rise the costs of mining, which means only the most efficient miners will survive, but this is nothing really new at all.

Bitcoin mining for some countries has a significant loss impact, but for other countries that are pro with bitcoin, bitcoin mining can actually increase the income of the country. Regarding the use of energy for mining, of course there will be alternative energy that is environmentally friendly and it is being done by some of the big miners at this time. The pros and cons for bitcoin mining will certainly continue to exist. If crypto mining is prohibited, of course, it will take longer to supply bitcoins that can be mined. and FUD will also be more and more scattered.

In a nutshell, Bitcoin would adapt.

Let us consider the actual ramifications of this scenario. At present, we have seen so called "mining bans" occur with the predictable impact on price. The psychological impact of news like this is the biggest component; confidence in Bitcoin is undermined whenever significant, especially restrictive regulation hits the news cycle. The network itself never suffers any real harm, and the hash rate eventually balances out as miners simply move to a new jurisdiction where mining is permitted.

So what about a scenario where mining is outlawed on a global scale? Be it due to environmental concerns, financial regulation, or any number of unforeseen reasons? Always remember, bitcoin is a living and breathing thing. If the consensus method (proof of work) is the problem, we can easily fork and change to a new method. It's hard to believe that the community would give up on this grand experiment so easily, given the trials and tribulations we have gone through so far to get here. Bitcoin is far from set in stone. And as it continues to evolve, we will undergo a number of radical changes to create the most perfect network we can achieve.

It makes us distracted and even influences us to think negatively as well. This happens to most of the people 12 years ago, what if and what if? We probably have that in our mind before, to think negative is somewhat normal but can't just live it there, we also have to look on the positive side that could make a change. Well, in fact, for many years that some countries are banning crypto but others did not follow as they are not convinced, and this is also the same as mining. For real, people will find a way even how stricter the government is.

always think positively about the progress of bitcoin, if you believe in bitcoin, avoid FUD about bitcoin because it will make you always think that you are not comfortable investing.
because FUD aims to drop the value of BTC at its base, so close your ears and eyes for a moment for peace

threat is going to be expensive huh i guess ,
like franky1 said, alcohol and illegal drugs are prohibited, there are still many who carry out their transactions, and obviously alcohol and illegal drugs are more dangerous if misused
different from bitcoin just mining by using electricity
I think mining will still exist and will be safe unless the internet and electricity are turned off back to the stone age

Let's for a second assume bitcoin consumes around 90 Terrawats of electricity every year which is roughly around the electricity consumed by Norway. Now imagining of a situation where around top 50 countries would come together to ban crypto mining. If I just go by electricity production by country there would still be 1500 Terawatts of produced electricity left on earth to support mining. And let me tell you that it's not the lack of space why the remaining countries don't produce electricity, it's the lack of demand and if the large bitcoin companies come together they can easily manufacture their own electricity in a safe heaven and trust me that would be much more profitable for them than to rely on government provided electricity.

Some countries do ban mining, and a few big ones can follow, but I find it extremely unrealistic for all countries to do that. Also, even when mining's banned, it doesn't mean it's literally not done in the countries that introduced the bans. It highly depends on how much the laws are being enforced, and some or a lot of underground mining can take place. Moreover, thanks to the adjustments of the difficulty rate, even if a lot of miners suddenly stopped, it would only be a problem for around two weeks, and then it would get back to normal. Of all things that can threaten the future of cryptos, I don't think mining restriction is a big issue.

But if bitcoin eventually get banned in all countries would miners still surface to mine on earth? The answer is definitely no in as much as bitcoin is decentralized it still shares its own limitations and one of it is power consumption assuming bitcoin was built on pos we would have outnumbered regulatory authorities but i feel this aspect of mining limitations is the strongest weak point that could possibly hinder hashrate if peradventure mining gets outright ban across nations

If all this were prohibited we know there would be severe punishment for defaulters and people who use those products would slways do them in a completely secret environment and it would't be available in our everyday malls

How about you answer the question ? Let me repeat it again in case you missed:

Why did miners abandon mining in March dropping the hash rate to ~ 97.87 EH/s when the mining revenue from one TH/s was 20 cents and they didn't do that in October when we reached 142.94 EH/s and the revenue per TH/s was 7 cents?

If it wasn't because of a ban in China can you explain from the pure economical way why would anyone chooses to shut down their operation when they were 3 times as profitable?


I'm confused, what the *** are you talking about?

So you are claiming that miners didn't care about the 55% drop in price and were all leaving because China banned bitcoin for the 1000th time?
Maybe China banned bitcoin mining for 1001st time in January too when hashrate dropped from 217 EHS to 159 EHS which totally had nothing to do with another 50% price drop?

That won't hold water, besides, as a miner, I'm going to tell you that anything like an apartment is a no-go for mining, even in a duplex house you're going to drive your neighbors nuts, but on top of that, you're going to drive yourself insane if you live in anything other than a house with a garage or basement to put those airplane engines on.

And as you present more and more options that could void these inconveniences, this is exactly what a ban will do, exclude categories after categories till you have a tiny speck of dust. You first cut out people who can't afford gear, poeple who won't run those things for 10$ a day, poeple who live in apartments packed houses, poeple who don't have cheap energy, and so on and on.
How many poeple do own a house far away in the farm lands?


Completely off-grid with no feed-in tariff that would allow you to pull energy during the night is a no from my point of view, you have to either purchase batteries and supersize your solar panels or shut miners during low sun hours and night. On the other side, a feed-in tariff would make anyone curious why you have that ridiculous linear consumption at night, and everybody on that plan has smart meters, one click and they see all your power draw so we're back to square one.

The obvious question nobody bothers to ask is why would the same poeple who don't mine now at home switch to mining at home when a ban is set in place? Does it make sense? Nope, it doesn't!

Well you could just say you like running your electric heating and portable AC at the same and have tons of fans on because doing so keeps ghosts away. I guess you're screwed if you live in a thin walled apartment, but if you have your own house out in the farm lands wham there ya go.

Or also, offsetting electric costs with buying bunch of solar panels maybe?

If mining would be banned in those countries then for sure another great country will rise and miners will flock to that country. But the reality is just, whatever happens, ban here and there.

Hashrates might drop but eventually, they will increase again. That's been happening before when they keep on putting on the news about mining in ban, about the consumption of energy, etc.

As for the ban on cryptocurrency mining, one must proceed from the fact that mining consumes a lot of energy, and energy is currently expensive and prices continue to rise. So I think that those countries that have an excellent resource base for the production of inexpensive energy will become those countries where mining will be allowed. Take Russia for example. Contrary to all the fake news about the ban on mining and cryptocurrencies in Russia, all of a sudden, the President of Russia made a statement that no one was going to ban anything. On the other hand, you are talking about green energy. So, everything is bad here, since this energy comes out even more expensive, which can make cryptocurrency mining not profitable at all. What do we have left? Either the transition to POS and then mining and maintaining the network does not require the expenditure of a large amount of energy, or those whom I wrote about above will become monopolists in this industry.

Smallest miner that actually makes sense to run if you have under 10 cents power is an S9, let's assume you have only one of them.
1400W burning 33kwh a day, 900kwh a month.
Everyone who is not from the US or Canada go and look at your electrical bill and check how much you have used in one month.  

Second, miners run 24/7 it's so easy to track individual miners as no normal household would have such a huge and flat consumption all night,  even heaters or air conditioning systems do go through speeds and power left on automatic, they are not continuously using the same power.
And that's for an s9, doing the numbers for an s19 you would consume more energy in one month than the average household in France in 6.

So, pretty easy to spot individual home miners.
And the second is the noise, imagine living in one of those commie blocks of flats where you can hear farts at night and your neighbor runs a miner that makes more noise than a standard vacuum cleaner, again, 24/7.

The answer to this question you asked is pretty simple there can be many governments that start to ban bitcoin and bitcoin mining or they can even suspend all the cryptocurrency-related transactions for their people but the main question is why should people obey this rule, there are many illegal activities such as drug dealing and drinking alcohol while driving but many people don't really care about these rules but the rules are created not be broken by people, in the other if this happens we will see fewer people mining bitcoin and in my own ide the price will grow due to decrease of the supply.

It is definitely a potential threat, with an energy crisis going on in almost every country around the world it is possible that cryptocurrency could become the target of future laws to clamp down on waste. One of two things might happen and potentially both. It might reach the point where mining becomes prohibitively expensive and not worth the cost. Which might also tie into more media attention which attracts the ire of politicians and the general public, that large amounts of energy is being consumed by what some might see is unproductive "mining" that is purely benefiting the few at the cost of the many. Besides forcing tech companies to potentially optimize hardware, mining does not do much for most people.

How is it even possible to enforce that?

How would gov know "hey... somone somewhere is mining"

I mean I get the big warehouses are easy to spot but people in their homes?

Because China is struggling with power shortages and is an authoritarian regime where you can be executed in public, while in most other countries capital punishment no longer exists.

The EU is not thinking of doing the same.
It's just a an opinion of some guy from European Securities and Markets Authority, which can't enforce anything. It can only recommend and threaten with fines. To ban mining they'd have to propose a bill first.

The latter.

It is difficult to carry out mining illegally, especially if it is carried out on a large scale, because many cases have occurred both in China, Malaysia and Russia where mining cases have been uncovered due to the large supply of electricity at the mining operation site, so the government can track them down easily and that's why we can see in the news that many miners are caught, now many countries have indeed made rules in the use of crypto as an investment asset and forbid using it as a tool for transactions, so that is why crypto can still exist even with strict rules from the government.

Yeah right, how much of the hashrate can Salvador host?

OP, you've asked the question on the wrong forum, problems that might arise from a ban are simply incomprehensible here, people throw away reasons because there must be no weakness in bitcoin, so doesn't matter what happens, even if we have a nuclear war, even if the planet is wiped out bitcoin will note affected.

Just for fun, when we look at the topics about how secure the network is poeple immediately start crunching numbers, it takes 2 million brand new miners and a whole amount of power to attack the network, it's simply not possible to produce the miners or buy them.. but..The latest ban just solved those problems from an attacker point of view, not only did the hashrate drop to half, so you needed less than half of the miners needed but also there was an influx of used gear doesn't the market at cheaper prices, solving the problem of having a factory ready to assemble this for an attack.

USA banning mining? It would be terrible, just think who is going to host all that hash rate, and with what power? Salvador with its 6Twh of power and with 20% of that coming from imports? The reality is that at this point any outright ban will have terrible consequences. But you can't speak of that here or you're going to get pitchforked.


Then I'm pretty sure you have a simple explanation why would the hashrate dropped after the China ban to ~ 97.87 EH/s with the prices still at ~30k while in the previous October we had 142.94 EH/s with an average price of ~10k.
How does this make sense to you?

It's not a problem when one country bans Bitcoin, even if it has a large share of miners, like China did, because miners can just relocate to other countries. But if this became a global trend and most of the countries with large power capacities banned mining, then hashrate would permanently drop. Countries with smaller power grid just can't host many miners, especially at times of an energy crisis. Recent example is Kosovo and other countries that had to ban mining because they don't have enough energy to sustain it. It's unclear by how much the hashrate would need to decrease before it starts seriously impacting the security of the network, but there's probably a lot of room for decrease. Bitcoin wasn't attacked years ago, when the hashrate was a fraction of what we have today.

There is no stopping this, if we were in 2012 I could still believe it, but if countries start to ban Bitcoin mining, there will always be other countries willing to mine. Take El Salvador, for example, and others to come. There is a lot of money at stake, a lot of institutions involved and it has been regulated in most countries in the world.

Surely we will hear news of more countries banning Bitcoin mining and FUDs like that, but Bitcoin will continue to be strong, and getting stronger in the long run.

Do India, Europe and Canada in your example even have any considerable hashrate? I don't think they have more than 20% combined and I'm being super generous! Last I checked Canada had the biggest and it was 3 or 4%! India had virtually no hashrate and Europe was struggling to keep the lights on with soaring gas prices.

In any case, when China supposedly banned bitcoin mining a lot of people FUDed about a massive hashrate drop but we only saw a very small drop, most of which was because of the price dropped that had happened before that news!
I think that should answer your question.

This "What if?" question has been asked a gazillion times on the forum.
There's a possibility of all major countries banning cryptocurrency mining,but there's no reason for this to happen everywhere.
The crypto miners aren't currently going anything illegal(except the miners,who are stealing electricity).
They aren't going any harm or damage to anyone.All the environmentalist bullshit about crypto mining polluting the environment is complete bullshit.
If the hashrate drops tremendously,the mining difficulty might drop back to the 2009-2012 levels and we all could start mining Bitcoins on our personal computers.Always try to see the positive side of every negative event.

Not really far fetch, remember that China already did it. My country is not very different from China which is why most of the countries today prefer to have CBDC than using cryptocurrency. It's the nature of government to want to have their grips on their citizen than allowing them to have thier own wealth that the government could not hold of.

Mining being outlawed means Bitcoin will cost low or cost high, what do you think?

We have 7 billion people in the world, so it's practically impossible to ban bitcoin mining through law. Now if I take a closer look at the law book, one of the fundamental rights is,


Exactly on this point, our Indian exchanges have defeated the central bank of India in Supreme court when RBI arbitrarily banned cryptos few years back. So it's definitely not a piece of cake. China is a country where rule of law doesn't exist. Same goes with North Korea. So you can't compare the rest of the world with an example of China.

Probably just in your head OP? I mean yes, some countries are banning it, but I don't think it's something necessarily other countries would also follow? That is unless crypto mining was seen as a universal evil or something. Additionally, you'd see people still doing it on their home computers or something, just like how it was initially. Hardly doubt countries banning them would actually do anything to people who still want to mine. Plus, mining groups could easily migrate to other countries if they needed to imo.

This is a far-fetched scenario, even if all countries ban Bitcoin mining, people will continue to mine illegally, what will governments gain then? Nothing, of course, except that it will lose an important economic resource. In any case, there are many alternatives that can be used, such as clean energy and others. There are always solutions to every problem. If such a problem occurs, it is sure that a suitable solution will be found because people will not give up Bitcoin. Easily, governments have tried many times before but failed to get people to give up Bitcoin.

If one country does this, it does not necessarily mean other countries are going to do it. Governments need money to run their country and this money comes from taxpayers. Instead of banning bitcoin mining, look at what India has done today, put on a 30% tax on bitcoin trades, which essentially ends up being the only way for users to transact in bitcoin.

Governments see this as an opportunity to make money and when they see it they will seize the chance and if this happens more countries will follow suit. So it will not get banned but rather may get taxed in future.

Again it is also correct that if majority of miners get stopped by their governments to mine (which firstly is absurd) - the rest of the miners get a bigger proportion of rewards. Naturally they will turn to their governments and complain about the situation at which stage again governments have to allow mining but with some restrictions, likely taxation again.

The hashrate would drop but since nobody will be mining bitcoin other than the home users in those countries I don't expect a network attack. In fact, I think it is best to ban mining completely and let only the home users mine it. When bitcoin first came out, there was a saying "1 CPU 1 VOTE". Obviously satoshi thought everybody will be mining on their personal computers at first but then things changed quickly. CPU > GPU > FPGA > ASIC

Yes, there is a big possibility that there can be some countries that will follow China in banning crypto mining due to concern on the high demand for power but they will never do it on a synchronized matter...and just like what happened in China when a door closes there will be another one that will open so long as there is a big money that can be made in Bitcoin mining. And that is the point...we should be concerned more if there is money that can still be made because if miners are incurring losses that is the prime reason they will stop doing it. I am sure that there will be an explosion in mining investment in El Salvador once other countries will be banning Bitcoin mining. As long as there is a money opportunity in mining, there will always be countries that will allow it.

It will be highly likely that we're going to see a surge in retail at-home miners. Simply because if there's a huge potential for profit, then people will be trying to mine bitcoin regardless of the country they're in. Incentive is the main reason why people mine in the first place; it's not like people will spend millions and millions of money on electricity solely to secure the Bitcoin network.

There's always a country that will be open and accepts this thriving business due to a lot of potential profit from the tax of mining company operator. All the major mining company what matter most and they are already migrated on the country that open with cryptocurrency. The only people that will be affected by this scenario will be the small time miners that mining inside there houses. There contribution to the total mining power is not that significant so we are still good in the long run.

The Chinese government knows it's not possible to eliminate Bitcoin from the finance system so it's just mining that can be regulated or outlawed. Ban mining is their solution.
Outlawing crypto mining is one way of attacking the countries that plan to take Bitcoin as legal tender. If it's going to happen then it's only staking that will likely be legal. I doubt the prices of those tokens will rise up.  

The more Bitcoin will be used for the revolution if the government keeps fighting its adoption.

Then it will be done in a clandestine manner. Will crypto mining stop? Of course not. It will only become harder for miners to do their thing but they could still continue what they have been doing. You can look at the microcosm of this scenario in places where mining is banned. Has it completely eradicate crypto mining? No. In Iran for example there was crypto mining even in the days when it was illegal. The same goes in other countries. Even in China.

lets say a country has 20 power plants. with production capacity of say 2twh
but only demand of 1.8twh
and they know because of EV they need to get upto 5twh in 8-13 years (2030-2035)

firstly. they would love to sell just 1gwh excess to a new industry (Gw is 1000th of 1tw)
0.2tw unpaid for capacity. offering just 0.001tx to bitcoin mining
this means 310,000 asics could mine there(34exahash). and if electric was say $0.04
netting the country $353,028,000 extra income per year to build more power stations
$2.8bill over 8 years.

that buys a heck of alot of hydro/wind turbines or solar panels
that 8 year extra income can buy 2000 wind turbines
meaning the country sells 1gw over 8 years but then can build 2gw of extra renewable power.. at no cost.. because the 1gw was unpaid capacity anyway.

heck the country could then offer 2gwh (620k asics (68exa))
heck the country could then offer 4gwh (1.24m asics (136exa))

It will be possible for some countries but miners are quick to migrate whenever something like that will happened in the future. No one in this world will gonna unanimously agree to that kind of proposal especially it involves money loss to the government officials. not all countries have many lists of sources of income and they won't hesitate to let you mined as long you provide them their due and the result, you will be free to mine forever.

..
well. alcohol and drugs did not go down in price when outlawed. infact it cost more to get that illicit product.
same can happen with bitcoin

EG
bitcoins cheapest -expensive mining costs are ~$35k(kazahkstan/iceland)-$85k(germany/bermuda)
if kazehkstan and iceland banned mining. or charged a penalty tax on the industry. well the cost of mining would increase bringing the bottomup.
EG changing the iceland/kazahkstan industrial electric rate from 0.04($35k) to 0.08($43k)
iceland and kazahkstan then wont mine. but would buy. meaning more buyers, more buy pressure and less sell pressure. so the price would rise.

american ASIC farms if they were banned at their $0.07 industrial electric rate
meaning in an example only american home hobby miners mined at $0.12 residential electric rate
that too pushes the cost of mining up.

right now american mining costs are
industrial asic farming:   $41,620.43($0.07 electric rate)
home hobby mining:      $49,026.49($0.12 electric rate)

if major american businesses cant mine at $42k to get bitcoin. they will buy it.
if the only american accessible untainted fresh coin is home mining at $49k hobbiests wont sell for less. meaning americans wanting locally bought coin will pay over $49k for it

imagine if kazahkstan and iceland didnt outlaw it. but just doubled the electric fee to $0.08($43k cost instead of $35k cost)
where the market price was $50k due to american policy changes
iceland/kazahkstan would mine again as its profitable to mine

(my priced exampled of mining costs are using the s19pro 110th asics of 3.25kwh at $12k hardware with 2year ROI on hardware)

The price will skyrocket and people will start illegal mining operations, pretty sure that even if the government outlaws mining, they wouldn't be able to block the mining softwares. Not to mention that people are creative and they will always find a way to mine those precious blocks. Also, would it mean that the price of bitcoin would go up too since getting it becomes difficult?

That's my assumption right at this moment, just take a break and avoid reading unreliable news and update.

Maybe you forget that Bitcoin doesn't need any country's authority or government's approval for mining, trading, selling, and buying.  We don't need any central government for all of these and crypto has been existed without them, in fact, we mostly hear that there are some countries involved in cryptoeconomics.  Everyone can mine Bitcoin at home and no one will compensate for it because everyone can use any hardware to mine.

Even if all of these are prohibited and while people keep using and doing these, the governments were left out of it.  How much more in Bitcoin mining.

what if alcohol was prohibited...........
     moonshine, bathtub gin, letting grape juice sit for 60 days to ferment (naturally made wine)
     medical liquor
     bootlegging

what if drugs was prohibited...........
     need i explain. just watch the news.

.. anyway
countries electric use for bitcoin is SMALL. if you want to do the math. take the number of cars that are fossil fuel and imagine it was 2030 when they should all be transitioning to EV. guess how much power a country would need to power all EV cars

countries should not target small industries which are paying for electric now to help power plants upgrade. they should instead invest more into upgrading power plants.. not due to fake fears that bitcoin is stealing much needed electric. (its not)
but because countries need to expand power production to meet real demands coming soon from EV cars

---

also. 2019 asic was 84thash for 3.25kw
also. 2022 asic was 198thash for 5.5kw
imagine hashrate was 200exahash where all asics were one or the other, lets compare:
84th asic = 7,647,059kwh
198th asic= 5,555,556kwh

meaning asics use less electric per hash at each new generation
meaning if the world put a cap of 7.7m kwh
the hashrate can still go up to 277exahash. and then new asics even more efficient can make it go higher after that

---

as for a fear of a 51%
firstly. a mining pool cannot change the protocol rules. if they make a block that doesnt fit the rules. instant reject. nothing to see, gone, bye bye
all they can do is just reorganise transactions in blocks in their favour
but it comes at a huge cost
right now its costs over $240k to mine a block
meaning to mine an empty block. just to be annoying is a $240k cost of electric.
(you might be thinking, but they get block reward to cover it.. ill explain this misconception later **)
to go back 1 block mine it empty(remove a confirm tx) and then catch up to overtake the network is about a 3block task minimum. meaning it would cost $720k just to un-confirm a confirm. so they can double spend what was spent

unless they bought something worth 1mill. claimed the goods and now want to undo the transaction.. its not worth trying

its far cheaper to just plod along making blocks adding in transactions to increase the reward and just be a good boy.
because even having 51% of the network means you are only going to get a chance to play around with the organisation of blocks once every 2 blocks.
**and within hours. people can just ban/reject a block that keeps orphaning off healthy blocks/ causing constant chain splits. thus the bad boys wont even get to spend the rewards in 100 blocks time(rewards cant be spent for 100 confirms(~16 hours)) because they would get rejected by merchants initially within hours..
(2013 chainsplit was handled in ~2 hours)

and then within just 2-3 blocks(~20-30mins) once it becomes a known thing to reject. meaning their bad block wont exist by the time the reward 'maturity' period is up
to have a chance to spend the first bad block. a badboy need to not just make every block for 17 hours. but also have merchants they want to spend the reward with accepting that block


so again no positive to being a bad boy, not simple to achieve. and easily dealt with before it becomes a prolonged problem

China banned miners, the EU is thinking of doing the same and what if others will follow?

In a hypothetical scenario where China, US Canada, Russia, India and EU ban pow mining I doubt the smaller countries can sustain the current active miners. Hashrate would drop significantly and the network would be weaker.
Either there would be a massive investment in solar in many developing countries or we might see the first 51% on BTC (hope not).

Do you see this as a potential threat or did the fud get in my head?