Topic: What if there is no bubble coming.. (Read 4895 times)

Quote from: feina24h on June 25, 2014, 10:10:15 AM

Quote from: feina24h on June 25, 2014, 09:59:52 AM

There is always a bubble, for some people going 1 to 10 was a bubble and for some 10 to 30 and then 500 to 1100 Grin

When did it go from 500-1100?

I think you mean 100-1100.

You must be the new guy.

LOL, so it went from 100 to 1100 without crossing the 500 Roll Eyes

? i dont know i am new or old but i started when it was 70.

No, it didn't.

After the silk road bust announcement, the price dropped to like $60 or something for a little bit before recovering back to like $100.

It didn't rally to $1,100 until like a month later.

The rally to 1100 is mainly due to the demand from China. Now that China is actively putting up policy to discourage bitcoin usage, it is hard to see which market can replace China market.

For me, I believe the Winklevoss ETF will be the "China of 2014." I'm hoping that a couple of things will happen. One, that there are investors who would buy BTC today, but are waiting for the ETF because that's what they'd really want anyway; they see the lack of an ETF and the trouble that the Winklevoss twins are going through getting it authorized as meaning it's not time for regular investors to be in BTC. This will be BTC's "IPO" so to speak; you'd never be advised to invest in BTC by an advisor who gets paid when you invest in "traditional" investment vehicles. I don't know how financial advisors operate but this is how I imagine it works. I could be totally wrong.

I do know one fact; Bitcoin's price will skyrocket the day that ETF launches.

tooil

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Quote from: feina24h on June 25, 2014, 10:10:15 AM

Quote from: feina24h on June 25, 2014, 09:59:52 AM

There is always a bubble, for some people going 1 to 10 was a bubble and for some 10 to 30 and then 500 to 1100 Grin

When did it go from 500-1100?

I think you mean 100-1100.

You must be the new guy.

LOL, so it went from 100 to 1100 without crossing the 500 Roll Eyes

? i dont know i am new or old but i started when it was 70.

No, it didn't.

After the silk road bust announcement, the price dropped to like $60 or something for a little bit before recovering back to like $100.

It didn't rally to $1,100 until like a month later.

The rally to 1100 is mainly due to the demand from China. Now that China is actively putting up policy to discourage bitcoin usage, it is hard to see which market can replace China market.

hellraven

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bubble... then dump now then watch, happy later or regret later

onlyu

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Bubble also comes and goes. The question is, is bitcoin in bubble now or later?

feina24h

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Quote from: feina24h on June 25, 2014, 09:59:52 AM

There is always a bubble, for some people going 1 to 10 was a bubble and for some 10 to 30 and then 500 to 1100 Grin

When did it go from 500-1100?

I think you mean 100-1100.

You must be the new guy.

LOL, so it went from 100 to 1100 without crossing the 500 Roll Eyes

? i dont know i am new or old but i started when it was 70.

feina24h

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There is always a bubble, for some people going 1 to 10 was a bubble and for some 10 to 30 and then 500 to 1100 Grin

gondel

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As I am seeing from todays tade price is going down to and wil dip under 500$ until the end of the day ( almost sure about that). BTC may be good for long term but for short term right now it is killing me. Before 5 days I earned like 15% more money then I have today and things are 15% more expensive for me today. For me I dont need any bubble at that time, but a steady price and to know how much I have all the time, not having different amount every day and to be scared when I check price every day

fonzie

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Moderator

Do downwards bubbles exist? If yes, than i´m pretty optimistic that we will see another soon.

ajareselde

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Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin

Quote from: bitsmichel on June 20, 2014, 02:57:00 PM

And we will be floating around 500-600 for more then 4 months?

no matter what happens now, when next bitcoin halving comes, price will surge up.
all those movements are great for trading, its just a question of keeping profits in bitcoin/litecoin, or in fiat.

long story short, there will be a next bubble, its just a matter of when.

SnakePlisken

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If there is no bubble then that is even better as we will eventually have a slow, stable steady rise Grin

DustyRah

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Quote from: BittBurger on June 22, 2014, 06:01:30 PM

And we will be floating around 500-600 for more then 4 months?

It would be a very boring 4 months, but at the same time many of us would be making profits here anyway in one way or another.

My prediction: I think, many people around the world have not understand the power of bitcoin yet and are mostly clueless about it. Once the mainstream is reached, there would be a massive uprise in market price. Adoption generally does not happen at once, but is a process which goes over time.

The adoption is only going to grow whether its gradual or quick. Its better to see a stable price and a gradual rise than monkeys throwing crap cakes kind of scenario like it happened with the Chinese fiasco. The fact that its holding in a stable pattern is very good news for long term BTC outlook.

okthen

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Here's a fact nobody predicting a new spike, seems to be grasping: The only reason we had a spike at all ... in the first place ... was because of an anomaly. China adoption. And I guarantee you some other shady shit was going on that week as well. It wasn't just a million chinese people blowing their life savings on Bitcoins. maybe it was the BOTS. Maybe something else. But that spike we are using to "prove" that another is coming? It wasn't a "thing" itself. It was not organic.

And even if it was organic .... here's the point: how the hell is that going to happen twice? Sure everyone has a theory, but my gut says what happened on the $1200 spike isn't just going to "happen again x10" and kick us up to $10,000. Nonsense. Unless another major, major, major manufactured event occurs. Probably artificial one. There is nothing to justify taking us to $1200 yet.

Consumer adoption is required for $10,000+ That is not happening in the next 6 months.

Wow you are talking as if that was the only spike up until now!
And it wasn't even the biggest one!!

BittBurger

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Here's a fact nobody predicting a new spike, seems to be grasping: The only reason we had a spike at all ... in the first place ... was because of an anomaly. China adoption. And I guarantee you some other shady shit was going on that week as well. It wasn't just a million chinese people blowing their life savings on Bitcoins. maybe it was the BOTS. Maybe something else. But that spike we are using to "prove" that another is coming? It wasn't a "thing" itself. It was not organic.

And even if it was organic .... here's the point: how the hell is that going to happen twice? Sure everyone has a theory, but my gut says what happened on the $1200 spike isn't just going to "happen again x10" and kick us up to $10,000. Nonsense. Unless another major, major, major manufactured event occurs. Probably artificial one. There is nothing to justify taking us to $1200 yet.

Consumer adoption is required for $10,000+ That is not happening in the next 6 months.

elebit

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The "return to mean" can be pretty good when the "mean" is rather steep. Just sayin'...

zimmah

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Quote from: JimboToronto on June 21, 2014, 07:49:54 PM

"bubbles" aren't supposed to be predictable. The moment this "bubble watch" started and became ritualistic was a red flag.

nonetheless 'bubbles' will happen.

I can't beleive we are at full adoption or even anywhere close to full adoption. There's about 3.5 million non-dust and non-zero addresses in use. I assume on average bitcoin users have more than 3 addresses, probably even more than 10. But even if we assume every person has only 1 address that would mean at most 3.5 million people own some bitcoin.

This means we still have room to grow, and growth of userbase is exponential in nature. By extension than price increases will be exponential as well.

So, if growth is not exponential something is very wrong.

This doesn't mean a couple of months of stagnation can't happen, it just means at some point it has to correct upwards to make up for the stagnation.

Kupsi

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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL

Bitcoin days destroyed are going down again. People are done selling at this level. I expect $800 within 2-4 weeks.

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

alexeft

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Do I have to post this again?

The bubbles just keep getting bigger, at least until adoption goes vertical.

I LOVE this chart!!!! Wink

cAPSLOCK

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Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!

"bubbles" aren't supposed to be predictable. The moment this "bubble watch" started and became ritualistic was a red flag.

I think it's sad that Bitcoin has fostered a community of people who actually seem to think market bubbles are a good thing.

Also, OP, the word "than" is spelled with an A. Every time.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: falllling on June 20, 2014, 03:41:34 AM

And we will be floating around 500-600 for more then 4 months?

This is like a translation: "I came to the bitcoin community for bubbles." Cheesy

JimboToronto

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You're never too old to think young.

Do I have to post this again?

The bubbles just keep getting bigger, at least until adoption goes vertical.

Malin Keshar

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I agree there is no bubble and we'll see price stabilization for some time, but I think it will be weeks, not months. Th market is not a consolidated one, and there are good and bad latent news that may spike or rise the price at least for a while. I think after the FBI sell off we'll see consolidation at the 650's, maybe with temporary up-700 rises.

there is no hope and the price will drop harder, $500 is coming and $4xx and $3xx won't be long, the bitcoin bubble bursted, huge dump will happen soon!

they look similar? Fear + Capitulation + Despair are coming!!!

Its more like we are in back to the mean stage, but with an exponential mean, instead of a linear mean

Bernard Lerring

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If it's gonna take another year or two that's good enough for me. I've been getting impatient for pay days, so I can buy another coin before all this mad speculation that it's going to soar.

If the price stays stable for a year it means I can buy steadily once a month and slowly accumulate coins at a price I can afford and relax without the dreaded feeling that I'm gonna miss out.

tutkarz

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I'm supriced people still responds to such threads. But to make it constructive a dedication for falling and other such types https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLDYHRWXzDQ

BTCtrader71

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Quote from: maker88 on June 20, 2014, 06:32:54 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on June 20, 2014, 04:49:54 PM

Quote from: falllling on June 20, 2014, 03:41:34 AM

there is no hope and the price will drop harder, $500 is coming and $4xx and $3xx won't be long, the bitcoin bubble bursted, huge dump will happen soon!

they look similar? Fear + Capitulation + Despair are coming!!!

That looks familiar ......

well played sir

Thank you thank you Grin

maker88

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Quote from: BTCtrader71 on June 20, 2014, 04:49:54 PM

Quote from: falllling on June 20, 2014, 03:41:34 AM

there is no hope and the price will drop harder, $500 is coming and $4xx and $3xx won't be long, the bitcoin bubble bursted, huge dump will happen soon!

they look similar? Fear + Capitulation + Despair are coming!!!

That looks familiar ......

well played sir

BTCtrader71

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Quote from: falllling on June 20, 2014, 03:41:34 AM

there is no hope and the price will drop harder, $500 is coming and $4xx and $3xx won't be long, the bitcoin bubble bursted, huge dump will happen soon!

they look similar? Fear + Capitulation + Despair are coming!!!

That looks familiar ......

bitcoinsrus

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Quote from: spazzdla on June 20, 2014, 03:23:09 PM

With a 7 billion market cap..

It has to bubble or collapse.. There just is no middle ground.

Kevin O'leary alone could buy the entire BTC supply... (not really as the price would utterly skyrocket as he did..and it will when ppl like him get srs on BTC)

I had a question about this. If some one started buying in large amounts, wouldn't it just keep going up meaning they couldnt just buy it all up?

And I know everyone keeps saying 7-8 bn isnt that much. Sounds like a lot to me. USD is 18 tn but that is used by many countries.
so when you guys says 7 bn isnt that much, you mean as a currency correct?

apple is like 555 bn etc

spazzdla

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With a 7 billion market cap..

It has to bubble or collapse.. There just is no middle ground.

Kevin O'leary alone could buy the entire BTC supply... (not really as the price would utterly skyrocket as he did..and it will when ppl like him get srs on BTC)

bitsmichel

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Quote from: falllling on June 20, 2014, 03:41:34 AM

And we will be floating around 500-600 for more then 4 months?

It would be a very boring 4 months, but at the same time many of us would be making profits here anyway in one way or another.

My prediction: I think, many people around the world have not understand the power of bitcoin yet and are mostly clueless about it. Once the mainstream is reached, there would be a massive uprise in market price. Adoption generally does not happen at once, but is a process which goes over time.

RodeoX

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The revolution will be monetized!

there is no hope and the price will drop harder, $500 is coming and $4xx and $3xx won't be long, the bitcoin bubble bursted, ...

How come nonsense is always written in red or all caps?

CEG5952

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Buy and sell bitcoins,

Could be no bubble coming. Could be that we'll fall to the $200s, $300s. Wouldn't surprise me. Either way, there's still so much money to be made in bitcoin.

btcxyzzz

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Quote from: falllling on June 20, 2014, 03:41:34 AM

they look similar? Fear + Capitulation + Despair are coming!!!

No, we have returned to mean.

Benjig

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Quote from: MoreFun on June 20, 2014, 08:32:37 AM

Quote from: piramida on June 20, 2014, 06:02:36 AM

What if there is no bubble coming..

No problem, we will wait for another one.

I suspect there is a lot of novice investors that were promised (or they told this themself) to make soo much money so fast with Bitcoin. And they are getting a bit impatient.

if we dont have bubble in next two months then we will have it on december and so on.

okthen

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Quote from: DieJohnny on June 20, 2014, 05:31:38 AM

"bubbles" aren't supposed to be predictable. The moment this "bubble watch" started and became ritualistic was a red flag.

completely true. The more people are standing around with their popcorn waiting for some jump to 5k like it is a natural geyser, the more likely it will never happen.

2014 is gonna be a stinker.

Yep, right when everybody will be standing around waiting for 2014 to be a stinker jerking around $500, it will blow up tenfold Wink

Just posted something similar in another thread by the same OP. Glad a veteran agrees

Besides that, what's the problem with a boring 2014? It will only mean a greater explosion afterwards.

MoreFun

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WePower.red

Quote from: maker88 on June 20, 2014, 06:26:13 AM

What if there is no bubble coming..

No problem, we will wait for another one.

I suspect there is a lot of novice investors that were promised (or they told this themself) to make soo much money so fast with Bitcoin. And they are getting a bit impatient.

SlaveInDebt

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Your Minion

2 months from now it starts, 3 till peak.

romneymoney

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HODL

no bubble

For long term bullish prospects, bubbles don't seem to be a requirement for the price to continue to increase. If we stray too far from the exponential growth, it will attract fewer people investing only for potential 10x gains in the short term. The biggest loss would be not getting the media coverage to fuel the next adoption increase, but it's not like media coverage is going away at this point anyway.

alexeft

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...............

your chart clearly shows we are at return to mean. do you not even look at the charts you post?

Exactly! And a very nice mean at that!

btcbeliever

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Quote from: piramida on June 20, 2014, 06:02:36 AM

Quote from: DieJohnny on June 20, 2014, 05:31:38 AM

Quote from: falllling on June 20, 2014, 03:41:34 AM

"bubbles" aren't supposed to be predictable. The moment this "bubble watch" started and became ritualistic was a red flag.

completely true. The more people are standing around with their popcorn waiting for some jump to 5k like it is a natural geyser, the more likely it will never happen.

2014 is gonna be a stinker.

Yep, right when everybody will be standing around waiting for 2014 to be a stinker jerking around $500, it will blow up tenfold Wink

If the price goes nowhere at all to the end of the year, I see some big advantages to that. Especially if a takeoff occurs in January - when no one expects it.

Those of us subject to the IRS tax code who invested a sizable chunk a few bubbles ago and held, can actually enjoy a normal tax bracket in 2014, and not deal with an obscenely high tax bracket until early in 2015, and have the whole year to tax plan - cutting back on earned income, not bother trying to claim charitible giving since btc will put us above the phase-out point, etc, etc. Maybe even move out of state to a no-income tax jurisdiction and save on at least part of the year, although that may be difficult to pull off so quickly.

The trick is to know when to start selling off percentages - and when to buy back at low points. I'll be following one of those best-fit semi-log straight-line multi-year trendlines for all my future buys and sells. Chop down the high points and fill in the low points helps level out the long-term volatility. Might take 8 months or multiple years between peaks, no one knows.

maker88

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there is no hope and the price will drop harder, $500 is coming and $4xx and $3xx won't be long, the bitcoin bubble bursted, huge dump will happen soon!

they look similar? Fear + Capitulation + Despair are coming!!!

your chart clearly shows we are at return to mean. do you not even look at the charts you post?

bizzel

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Quote from: Swordsoffreedom on June 20, 2014, 06:08:58 AM

"bubbles" aren't supposed to be predictable. The moment this "bubble watch" started and became ritualistic was a red flag.

True enough sometimes that does kill the market sentiment
Didn't happen on the meteoric rise to 1000+ though even though the forum kept saying it was going to pop for a while before it actually did though

They're bound to be right sometime Tongue

Swordsoffreedom

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Quote from: DieJohnny on June 20, 2014, 05:31:38 AM

"bubbles" aren't supposed to be predictable. The moment this "bubble watch" started and became ritualistic was a red flag.

True enough sometimes that does kill the market sentiment
Didn't happen on the meteoric rise to 1000+ though even though the forum kept saying it was going to pop for a while before it actually did though

piramida

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Borsche

"bubbles" aren't supposed to be predictable. The moment this "bubble watch" started and became ritualistic was a red flag.

completely true. The more people are standing around with their popcorn waiting for some jump to 5k like it is a natural geyser, the more likely it will never happen.

2014 is gonna be a stinker.

Yep, right when everybody will be standing around waiting for 2014 to be a stinker jerking around $500, it will blow up tenfold Wink

DieJohnny

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