Topic: What is safe asset? And If USA dollar weakining what is Next Fiat? (Read 929 times)

Safe assets are most likely called as safe heaven. Our money is not safe if we will just store it in banks because the fiat money can crashed any moment and any time. There is a safe assets that can preserve our wealth. Investors are attracted in gold investments because it is one of the safe heaven that they can purchase. There are still many assets that we can purchase in order to protect our money.

If the plan is to deviate from one fiat to jump onto another fiat then I don't really think it's a good plan. Have a look at the recent Dollar Spot Index in light of certain events:

 
It clearly states the weakening of US dollar in past few years. But currently if you see the last end of the chart there is a sharp downtrend on the very last point. Considering this it's obvious that US Dollar would be affected if there is an outbreak of war but the point is that even Euro isn't much different from Dollar. So what's point of using Euro in place of Dollar in such a condition? Moreover weakening indicates inflation for US and pretty much growth opportunities for other countries whose currencies will now have atleast some purchasing power in USA. Moreover if you are looking for safe asset nothing is a safe asset when it comes to deviation with news. Have a look at gold's recent chart:


if you ignore the 10 day MA and look at the spot index see how sharply gold has had it's ups and downs.

Moreover we all know how volatile bitcoin can be in events of war and bad news. So I think it would be stupidity if we look for some other currency merely because the previous one is weakening due to a war.

Safe assets are resources which, all by themselves, don't convey a high danger of misfortune over a wide range of market cycles. Probably the most widely recognized kinds of safe resources truly incorporate land property, money, Treasury charges, currency showcase assets, and U.S. Treasuries shared assets.

The most secure resources are known as hazard free resources, for example, sovereign obligation instruments gave by legislatures of created nations.

The weakening of US dollar i think is just temporary because of the ongoing war between US and Iran but once this war will come to an end, US dollar will sure to regain its value. It will still be the biggest asset more than any gold or bitcoin and bitcoin will always be an alternative payment system.

This is the first time I hear a statement in which the US dollar is losing ground due to the war in which the US is directly involved. The dollar is always growing against the backdrop of the war, in view of the fact that it is the dollar that provides many currencies of other countries. War has always been beneficial to the US economy.

Property is actually quite decent as a safe asset.  Over population in areas make prices rise.  Finite amount of land, and when everything hits the gan at least you can build a little fort there and live on it  .  Seriously though land will always be a commodity people Need so cant go too wrong unless you buy in the wrong area.

Maybe there won't be a "next fiat" that will be safe, maybe people are not losing hope in US dollars but generally in fiat itself or even the economical system we are all living in? I am not saying people will move to bitcoin right away but as we can see from 2019 there has been a lot of investments to gold for example, why did people moved to gold that much?

Because, they gave up on their own fiat currencies and moved towards something that will make sure they are not getting poorer by the day. I personally can tell you that I am living a much more horrible life than 3 years ago with around the same amount of money I make, and I mean just 3 years ago! So maybe euro won't be the solution, maybe yuan won't be, maybe no other fiat will be, maybe bitcoin won't be that big just yet, but it has to be something other than fiat for sure.

I think the gold standard mode will come back if the US economy goes down. Because before that, all countries used gold as a trading unit and it was really useful. One more thing is that when the United States is in recession, America's neighbors are also greatly affected because our world is an open economy. so I think history is going to repeat itself, and no single currency has the potential to be the common currency instead of the USD.

Yes, and in here we talk about candidate. Actually see a lot of people said that Yuan can be candidate to replace fiat, maybe need big adaptation from a lot of country first because maybe not all countries know or use Yuan. Or maybe cryptocurrency which already known by some countries can be candidate too.

If USD will weaken, then all else fiat currency will also weaken like the Yuan but if its gong to be less affected due to the country's economic stability, it could be acceptable. Why not BTC, I think its best to use decentralize currency but then the miners being in China are going to be the tech issues are that other countries will oppose the use of it.

right, China as if mastering the economy in every country in the world. they can reduce the cost of production to distribution, resulting in cheap goods. and it's easy, of course, consumers prefer it. The yuan may be used more and more, but I don't think it will replace the dollar's position

Man, am I getting old already? I am used to USD and I am used to look at US as a most dominant and powerful country but now I must say I need re-evaluate such thoughts. China has been growing a lot lately. That is why I agree with you, it may came later that CNY must be the next currency to use.

As China's economic trade is getting popular and have many adapted to buy their products and goods then yuan can be a choice but not to the point to replace dollar. Even dollar is weakening it may only be the basis for now of currency but no official fiat will replace. There will be a chance for crypto to be use by many when dollar exhaust.

One way or another, paper money has always had the property to depreciate due to unprofessional actions of the government and because of the fraud of many officials and companies that are monopolists in the market.  That is why the government exposes its state to inflation by printing extra cash.  But for me in this case, a clear profitable asset will be precious metals or other jewelry in which you can profitably invest.  But if you take into account bitcoin, its limited number and, if possible, use it as a means of payment in society in everyday life, then even Bitcoin can become a replacement in the future for all fiat funds.

You're wrong, we are not safe if we are just saving our dollars. There is a financial crisis that will come that can lead to the crashed of the dollar. Our money is not should be in banks because there is a negative zero interest. We should invest our money in order to beat the inflation. There are many investment vehicle that we can use like real estates and business that can give us passive income.

This question can be answered in different ways depending on someone's understanding and leaning of the term "safe asset" because for sure we have different convictions, and we are in different situations. Gold is considered as the safe haven for sure and in case of a war this can be a good asset to protect one's wealth, not unless of course we are already looking at the end of the world scenario where I think foods and a solid shelter can be more important. Just like gold, Bitcoin is also considered as a good store of value and nobody can steal it away from you because it has no physical presence.

Only in case dollar is replaced, in my mind only Euro. Since past, money that i know only dollar and euro, because maybe that is what most people use when in overseas. But read a lot of people here talk about Yuan, maybe make my mind is really opened because the world is larger than i expected.

Safe? You can’t be sure of anything. The dollar is not going that down anytime soon. It might be going through a bad phase, but it will be back up. However, if the dollar were to go down, the Chinese currency could take over. It's a long road though.  And Hey, Gold is still a good choice. Real estates are still up there. Real estates, stocks, and bonds are good choices. Always spread your investment.

In the current position the Chinese Yuan will not be able to replace the US dollar, although China's economy and trade volume can overtake America, as I have explained in several of my posts that:

Chinese Yuan1.6%
American Dollar 58%

Compare COFER (Currency on Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) numbers above. The majority of world foreign exchange reserves are in US dollars. Yuan wants to shift the dollar so that massive actions are taken so that countries in the world change their foreign exchange reserves in the form of dollars to China Yuan. Many people were not interested in this idea because the Yuan exchange rate was pegged by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). PBoC control is an obstacle to change foreign exchange reserves in Yuan.

http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

I hope the next currency that will be used internationally is Bitcoin. because it has more price equality. everyone can have without being tied to the government. at this time any country's currency is very dependent on the government. and cannot run without government rules. bitcoin, free from inflation. and very good for transactions. while even the best asset storage is bitcoin.

China is going to be the dominating power in the years to come , true
but the problem with Yuan is that you cannot buy/sell it freely and it is not accepted at every corner like USD
as for any state sponsored digital coin I'd think twice before buying it
any centralized crypto like XRP is not a cryptocurrency but a controlled emission of fiat money in a digital form from a certain entity

One of the world biggest economy is Chinese one => Yuan is fiat currency of the future. And moreover China is going to launch Digital Yuan

I do not really know which fiat is the best option, but based on a research I once did, the Norwegian krone is considered the fiat with the sturdiest fundamentals. If you compare it with other currencies that I have seen in the comment section like the British pounds, Japanese yen, euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar and the rest, you will see that there are things that makes it safe in terms of global crisis.

To compare all these currencies we would start with their Central bank capital ratios, which Norway Central bank is among the highest with around 23%, above the others I have mentioned. If you talk about debt, their government has zero net debt, unlike the US government that owes a lot. So, don’t you think it should be your next choice?

As of now China too is facing economic outburst due to trade war with USA, ad on other issues. Right now I find Japan to be the country with strong forward move in its economy. To what level this is right is unknown, but I find the Japanese Yen to be strong enough to move funds when there happens fall in USD and Euro.

you cannot really predict the best store of value , since if you are holding just one asset it is always a risk of it going down
I suggest you create your usual basket of 4-5 currencies and 2-3 assets and share your investment equally between them all
and why not gold or property? some property is making huge ROI , 100-200% in five years is not something unusual
you can always hodl bitcoin , for example or create the said currency basket out of the cryptocurrencies of your choice
while way riskier than fiat/assets , it can also gain you way more
bitcoin has made 9000000% return since the start , nothing can beat that  

Well if war is commencing then Euro will not be the best currency to rely on. As far as I know they don't have oil reserves on their own which is what supports most currencies nowadays. If anything, I think the next fiat after US dollars will be CNY because of how strong the currency has been going so far.

In each country, the assets that are valuable in that country are also different. It could be US dollars, gold, euros or diamonds. Currently many countries around the world use legal money. Most countries around the world use fiat money to buy goods and services, invest and save. Fiat money has replaced the gold standard and other commodity-based systems in establishing the value of fiat money.

when european countries get involved in the war , don't you think the euro currency will be just the same as us dollar? in term situation i don't think there is a currency-switch in the near future, it is still uncertain whether the war could spread around the globe or simply stopped in few days lol.

the uncertainity always become the factor of the market overreacted .

us still strong & dominant and will always be like that for now.
that is just a flash drop due war occured, everything will get recovered, too early to say dollar will get replaced.

Just curious, why is Gold or property not a good store of value? Property price is appreciating over time, since the population increases and/or the demand for more land space is increasing too. Gold is also a good one, since it has been existing for thousands of years and the world has been on numerous world wars, while this commodity remained to be valuable.

Probably, all of the coins are not that safe to hold and you're not certain that its price will increase as time goes by. Because the best example of that is bitcoin, it is not certain to make you rich in 3 or 4 years. Maybe after 8 to 10 years its price reach $10k or up but that's still not sure. So if you invest for something, you should accept and take a risk that the day will come when you will loss everything or make a profit out of it.

Does anyone consider Yuan to be really strong? That is something I always wondered, I mean we all know that China is a strong nation but they are strong because people need them and not because they like them. For example if given the option half of the world would love to live in Europe, or UK or even maybe USA for some people, however I am not entirely sure if people would prefer to live in China over where they live now, sure people in Yemen might, but not many nations, just maybe 5-10 people.

All due to china right now basically killing, raping, harvesting organs of Uighur turks right now, and making people work so hard that people die of starvation and business runs as usual like nothing happened. So we have a nation with a strong business and currency that is hated, does that make the currency strong or weak?

Of course that war should be avoided on all means not just because of possible weakining of economies but that might be the trigger for next world war and that might be the end of the world we know it.
Dollar will not get in worse position then it is now and I don't think that any currency will replace it, especialy not cryptocurrencies. However, I think that Euro is very good, stable and reliable fiat currency, maybe even better then dollar.

There will be no war so don't expect that dollars will get weak. They are still far leading compared to other currency. And would the government even let their dollars get weak?? Of course not! They'll be spending a lot if war might happen so I don't think they will let that.
And those top developed and strong countries can be next with America when it comes with their currency.

Dollar weakining because of war seems you were really expecting war happened between Iran and US but i think if supose can it should can be avoided because i'm sure the war between them will have bad impact for world economies so let's hope this won't be happen however regarding the questions actually i was expect bitcoin can appears as dollar replacement but seems it won't be happen and maybe the best next currency after dollar is euro

War can destroy economic crisis and make many people have ready with most danger at the future, war Iran and United State hope can be stop for awhile and both countries will keep peace. USD will have bad effect if keep continue war whit Iran because USD can have lower price whit many countries not support with war condition.

War of everything is a main reason why all currencies may lost its value not just usa dollar, if this will happen I think crypto might be the next currency will be use because its a neutral and no government will own it like bitcoin. so crypto is the best safe asset to hold because we didn't know in future many things will change and crypto will remain as main usable in any transaction. 

Can' disagree with your logic right here.
But USD is unique in its way because USA does trade a lot, so USD is valuable in many countries because they want goods from US.
And by this logic Norwegian Krone is really stable, but still it has less value than volatile USD.
So I'd suggest EUR or Chinese Yuan as new fiat currency, because they has a lot more value than any other country/currency in the world

If you are looking for a FIAT currency that is not really impacted by the US $ and that could keep it relative value in the event of a global recession you could look at the  Norwegian Krone or the Swiss Francs. 

Norway is a rich country, is an oil producer and exporter.
Norway has the 3rd GDP per capita in the world, its government pension fund has more than 1 trillion US and is the largest sovereign fund in the world.   Per citizen is a 195 00 USD of assets.  Quite a change from the trillions of debt the US citizens carry.
And of course, the Norwegian budget is based on their expected expenses, not run  a deficit.

Well, a great recipe to withstand an economy downturn.

If you look into switzerland, you can come to the same conclusion but based on different data.   

Euro is a common currency in the European Union organization. so it should not be one of the common currencies because it is not based on any indicator to evaluate the strength of that currency. I think when the USD weakens, it will continue to return to the gold standard era. This has happened and it will continue because people have a habit of repeating history. so that's my guess if the US dollar really can no longer afford to be the world's oldest brother, Gold will continue to take the throne.

I certainly don't think that it's property. I don't think that property does that well in an economic recession.

Gold is a hedge against black swan events for sure, but at the end of the day it's bulky and it's hard to transact with. It will remain to be the international reserve asset of choice for a while, but there is no denying that bitcoin has sprung to the scene and will likely play a significant role as being a safe haven asset as well.

At the end of the day, bitcoin is also decentralized, like gold, and is free from government intervention, which is all you ask for in a safe haven asset.

If what you’re looking at is fiat, maybe you should go for Euro and Yuan, both are among the top currencies in the world, but the US dollar is still the most powerful currency.

As for being safe, I don’t think anything is really safe, if you have cash stored up, it’s not really safe and the same thing with gold. Bitcoin seems to be a bit more safe if stored online, but if you store it in your computer or ledger or flash drive, you can still lose it if you’re not careful and when it gets to the hand of someone else that knows how to works they can pull your money from it. But BITCOIN is a good choice.

I can't make a prediction about the fiat replacement but considering current values, the Euro can take the USD's place. The digital yuan if it is implemented could also be a contender.

I wouldn't put too much hope on these however. If I can I'll keep precious metals, preferably in coin form. Homes in general seem to be "safe" except for really drastic downturns that can leave entire communities in disrepair (like what happened to Detroit where they are basically giving away houses).

They both increasing now, as we see in the past days, bitcoin keeps increasing even the oil and gold. Even USDollar  may not allow to be defeated in terms of being top, somethings are just meant to happen and this event may be included. Next fiat is still unknown but people uses bitcoin now to reduce their economic crisis.

There will always be usage for the dollar in the world which cannot be changed overnight since because of war. But during this kind of situation, the safer asset will always be Gold for the general public who doesn't believe in crypto. But people who believe in crypto will either have all into BTC or split across BTC and gold. The US Fed will not allow the dollar to drop a lot in that situation they use their reserve of other currency to buy dollar which will curb the dollar selling pressure.

If there's war people will hardly care about Gold let alone bitcoin and that'll definitely not gonna make the price increase. Despite many people saying that people who at war are going to convert their money to BTC that's just hardly true.

However, if USA dollar weaking it'll yuan that have the highest chance of replacing it because China is 2nd biggest economy in the world.

not really, imagine investing to gold that's really hard to liquidate at the time of war.

I do doubt that, so does OP.

No one is saying USD will end just like this. I agree with Yuan, but any fiat used to do internasional transaction could be stronger than other common fiats. So, if USD is weakening, then Yuan could the safer asset.

If the USD weakens due to the war, I think CNY or Euro will become stronger and replace USD. But I think the US will not let that happen because it will affect the US economy. And stable assets are the type of assets not affected by the economic crisis, and here the stable asset is Gold ... and now we can have another option bitcoin. Gold and Bitcoin will increase incessantly if the economic crisis occurs due to the war

I doubt that USA will just end like that because of the on going conflict with other country, and with the possibility of having a a war. But if dollar starts to get weak, it can be either Euro or yuan I think? If I'm not mistaken they're next to usd.

As for the safest asset, I'd go for gold. Not crypto. Crypto isn't that stable unlike gold who will never lose its value.

Indeed, most of the people would probably tell it is bitcoin that is the safest asset though, the risk is still abiding the volatility of bitcoin wherein, with the sudden market price increase, it could turn out to fall sudden too. So instead of people looking at bitcoin, they need the next Fiat. though, I am not really supporting this since instead of converting our assets to different fiat currency, why not choose something like a stable coin? It is a cryptocurrency, yet, is not a volatile asset for us not to worry that much.

US dollar might be weakening because there are a lot of people who use cryptocurrency as their safe asset, but people still sell their crypto to fiat, so it is impossible for US dollar to be replaced by other currencies because it will still.be the currency that they will use to buy the things that they needed and wanted.

It's not weakening because of the wars, if anything euros is going to be one of if not the first currency to fall since they don't have their own oil reserves, to which currencies heavily depend on. In the case of safe assets however, as resources dry up, gold and properties, even oil might lose its value, honestly there isn't such a thing as safe asset because everything that has value is at risk of losing it.

Naw, I'd trust those more than fiat. Gold, even though when it's not gaining much value, losses it less even slower. Not to mention people trust it enough, enough for countries like China to consider going back to gold standard.

As for property, land is land, not much new ones are being created and you can rent out the property if the price is currently low. People would always need a place to live or do business in.

I'm sure there is no other fiat that can replace USD, not even CNY. USD as reserve currency is protected by those elite global, they will not be easily defeated even by China.


Gold is my choice, it's more stable than other asset and have a great value.
You think Bitcoin is safe asset? No, volatile market cannot be prevented.

Until now, if the USD weakens we will have CNY and Euro. But it is not really safe because it will probably weaken just like the USD. For me the safe asset is Gold, The price of gold will surely increase dramatically if the Fiat of the major powers is weakened, and that is happening in the current situation. Gold prices have risen more than $ 100 in the past week and continue to rise, we have seen the new ATH of gold this year.

Unless the Chinese government just decides to maintain neutrality in the imaginary war that is going to happen based on what we discussing here, I don't see Yen as the best alternative as the impact that the war would make on weakening the dollar, same thing would be applied to Yen. It might not be in the same degree but it will surely take a hit.

The best currency now is that there should not be war because if it happens, the best currency would be the least of all our problems...

euro is also struggling now as their economy is also not doing well,so i think is Chinese money who will be the next thing if this continue to happen.

if not Gold nor Property then it mus be Cryptocurrency right?that is what you are pointing?not unless you have another idea so why not share with us?

I seriously think that dollar will never become weak against any other currency. We are talking about a currency that is backed by the biggest military in the whole world who can go and get oil from any nation they want and still improve the way they operate their economy just by making those external influx anytime they want. They have deficit bigger than 20-30 nations combined and they are still doing fine because this is a nation that nobody has the guts to ask for their money back.

Look at china for example, just China alone has trillions of dollars worth american treasury bonds that in themselves worths nothing but saying "we owe you" and that's it, when USA pays those they give more back in return and the deficit grows to a level that will eventually be obviously non-payable and nothing would still happen to them. Who can force USA to pay up? No one can do that.

If USA will involve in war then not only USD but other currencies of other nations which are involved in USA with trade will also see a fall in value so do not worry in this case as we are seeing bitcoin price rising which means that people this time are going to convert their money to bitcoin which seems to be a the best option this time because bitcoin is a decentralized currency and is not connected with the economy of a single country or a group of countries but people from all around the world are supporting it and it will not fall in price on this occasion.

How do you reach to the conclusion that USD is weakening? So far, the potential possibility of war has no impact on US economy. Prices of USD in relation to other prominent currencies are still constant. Here are the charts showing EURO/USD  and POUND/USD pairs for last 1 year:



You can observe that exchange prices are mostly constant with slight exception in August 2019.



Nothing is safe. Every asset has risk element, that's why it's called investment. When economy weakens, every asset/investment in spot market falls. There is hardly any exception. However, economic recession may increase the demand of cryptocurrencies therefore increasing their prices but this theory is still untested and cannot be relied upon.

I think the other way around as the wars will only benefit America as it has been the main supplier of weapons and makes more money out of it and if USA is directly involved in the conflict yes there are chances that USD can be weakened but it will pump back for sure before the Chinese CNY takes the lead as I don't think there would be any other fiat apart from CNY which can replace USD.

if the US dollar becomes weaker then what might be used as the global and main currency is the Chinese yuan. why chinese yuan? we know the second strongest country after America is China. China has a hefty economy and also has the most population in the world. so in my opinion if the US dollar collapses it will be replaced by the Chinese yuan. and I think safe assets are assets that have a low risk of loss.

If there is a war threat in the world, gold is the most important investment tool. Gold is a very valuable mine. But there is a more important issue. I think he's being ignored. Yes you can have too much gold so how do you move. The cost of moving Bitcoin from one place to another is very low You can carry a bitcoin worth millions of dollars with a small wallet.

There is no 100% "safe" asset. Nothing in this life is guaranteed, it is just a matter of risk/reward, probabilities, psychology, mental energy, managing your emotions, etc. Gold is just a metal nothing more and has proved itself to NOT be a reliable "hedge" type asset during crisis like in the 2008 stock market turmoil. It dropped around 30% ! How's that for a safe asset?

I would put more trust in real estate as space is limited on this Earth and people will always need a place to sleep at night. But yet if we colonize new planets like Mars and Moon and people will be able to migrate there the RL might lose some of its value.

Maybe European euro? I mean it is still not a great fiat currency that we can support, no fiat currency is good enough to support but at least they do look like they are doing alright. It is strong in the sense that nations in Europe is not having some sort of crisis right now, looking at USA they have a ton of problems economically, looking at china they are doing amazing economically but politically it is a dictatorship that kills and harvests people so maybe not so strong politically.

However, there is nothing going on in Europe, maybe this brexit thing could have affected but it looks like it affected UK more than it affected EU and that is why Euro could be the strongest currency in the coming years. Still not that amazing considering it is still fiat but looks stronger than dollars.

Gold might be the safe alternative asset during the war because people trusted it and it has been used since the ancient times also it is more stable, but the problem is we cannot store a lot of gold safely, then the best alternative might be bitcoin, people can save a lot of money and without limits, as long as they hold their private key safely, then their assets will be safe, but no one can guarantee the price will be stable, especially during war, it is just too volatile.

If we want to invest in safe asset then invest your money in gold. Gold is a safe investment and rich people are keep investing in it because they know that they can survive in the next financial crisis. It is a reality that the dollar is weakening because of the bubble that happened. Financial crisis will come and gold and silver are the safest asset that we can acquire. 

For me, the safe asset is the gold where you can put your hard earned money and expect to survive even when the us dollar is continuously getting weak. Cryptocurrecies are also a good choice for a person who want a store value but it is not a safe asset because of the volatility in the market but it could also be use as an alternative to fiat since it is already popular.

It's so hard to USD be replaced to another fiat currency that we can talk about something else
But seriously, if a war happens, most probably USA will gain more strength and USD can stay the same or even stronger, there are a lot of reasons for that

Of course, each national currency of those countries that have a very strong and progressive economy has real value.  But if you take into account the US dollar, then this currency still remains the leader of the financial arink.  I think that it is not in vain that the United States of America is expanding its sphere of influence in many countries in order to support its economy by a political method.  Moreover, a lot of economies of different countries depend on the dollar.  Perhaps it is precisely because of this that the United States does not speak very favorably about cryptocurrency and, in particular, Bitcoin, since it is cryptocurrency that can become a real replacement for all fiat funds.

Gold and bitcoin both have a good potentials as they continuously getting attentions from investors views. If ever US dollars suffered it will bring
most of the fiat to its same trends, super nation like US won't allow that the fiat currency will be dominated by another currencies for sure they
will do something to regain it and continue to have the dominance.

Although China is aggressively propagating Yuanisation throughout the world, it is almost impossible for Yuan to replace the dollar with consideration:

The US dollar has been the world's main reserve currency for decades. According to the IMF, the US dollar currently covers 58% of the total foreign exchange reserves in the world and around 40% of world debt denominated in dollars. The IMF said the total world foreign exchange reserves in the second quarter of 2019 was equivalent to US $ 11.735 trillion. Of this amount, US $ 6.777 trillion (57.75%) was the US dollar while the Yuan was only around 1.85%. Gab is too big to compete with China. (Source: http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)


The global conspiracy of dedolarization will succeed if many countries agree and act to de-diversify their foreign exchange reserves into other forms or another currency. But because the axis of the world economy is the United States, foreign exchange reserves in the form of dollars are very necessary because at this time the dollar is still considered the safest save heaven and its value tend to rise when conflicts occur. So foreign exchange reserves in the form of large dollars can buffer domestic economic problems and external impacts.

The trade war between China and America is only an attribute, the real war between China and America is the ideological war of socialism vs. capitalism. The OBOR (One belt one road) program in China is a form of aid diplomacy not much different from the American Marshal plan or the Soviet Union's Molotov plan. The current conflict between the US and China is a struggle for the US (the dominant power) and China (the challenger) to expand their sphere of influence. In addition, Trump's inward-looking orientation (American First) is maximally utilized by China to maneuver into a regional power.

hopefully with the weakening of the USD can provide a new perspective on global currencies, many countries are starting to think of the USD because of price volatility. indeed gold is an alternative for their thinking, and it is not impossible that bitcoin will emerge and provide a view of the new currency

EURO has a horrible policy backing by its central bank, to consider that is to leap out of the saucepan into the fire it seems likely.   Dollar is still stronger over the last year so its not exactly displaying the weakness many think it might and that's usually explained by its use globally which still does not seem to be changing any time soon.

The safest asset according to ongoing thinking would be national government debt and its still dollars which are favoured.    That also is a trend which in theory should break, with interest rates and so inversely the debt priced at all time highs.   Its not a good asset to buy when over priced but that's the current market rating for safest asset.
  
The next FIAT after US dollar is already been established for 40 years since Nixon's administration.   He altered the terms of the Bretton Woods agreement by leaving the gold standard and so SDR came into existence which is a IMF scheme backed by every major country of the world now including China.  That's very likely the next candidate for world currency though its an unknown to most as it can only be traded by central banks as an asset not any smaller entity.

Consider Norway if you want a country running surplus not deficit - https://commodity.com/debt-clock/norway/
In theory they are far safer then most but some think debt makes you rich 

I do not trust trading with the Chinese Yen, there must be a different currency if you are looking for a volatile economy and gold is not a good alternative right now as the price keeps on rising for the past several days and bitcoin is the only asset that will not be linked with the real world issues as it is the one true global currency.

Euro? I doubt that. US is has quite a large reputation, and even if the debt is already way out of hand, the common populace still believe USD as the global currency. Plus, if your determining safe asset through price, that's already a mistake. Chinese Yuan would make a lot more sense as a choice tbh. There's also the issue of why are you depreciating Gold as an asset? Unlike USD, its fully backed by itself, which is a hard asset, when compared to USD which is backed by the "words" of the government. Which is more trust worthy at that point, gold or usd?

As a possible global currency which can be used by the majority of nations I did not see any of the commodity currencies or digital currencies you listed being an option.
Bitcoin could be used as a global reserve currency but not in the nearest future and no nation would trust their reserves on any current alternative currency.

The Chinese Yen should surely be included in your portfolio as they boost of one of the strongest economies in the world. Gold is a good alternative now, but not for the long term, in my opinion

If you are looking for a different fiat currency then every fiat has a weak point in them and they might crash at any point but the issue i find with your statement is that even if there is a war between Iraq or Iran how can you say that the dollar will weaken, if the crude oil prices rises then we can understand but how the valuation of dollar weakens confuses me.

Gold prices are soaring right now and hence i will not invest in gold at this point, i consider bitcoin much safer than any other asset to invest during a war.

The dollar isn't weakening. Despite "war", it's still the safest asset on the planet.

If there is a war in the middle east, the euro is not the currency to buy as the eurozone has no oil of it's own and will be badly affected by high oil prices, plus will also be affected by refugees.

There's no safe asset everything is at risk in having a recession just like what happened in the great depression where the cost of living was very expensive because of the USD collapsing. All we can do is migrate to a different investment to avoid loss, like for example gold its the only asset that doesn't have any huge volatility or bitcoin and crypto currency with innovative technology but has huge volatility.

I don't know why you considered gold as an unlikely choice. Unlike the dollar which is backed by the government, gold is a hard asset. It can easily retain its value even if US dollar crashes. Same can be said with Oil and Properties and the like. As for euro being a possible fiat, not likely. Euros are priced higher than US cause of the limited supply the government brings out, but this doesn't necessarily mean that the economy of Euro is greater than US.

Not likely. At least for now. Bitcoin is way too volatile, and it becoming the backbone of the economic situation right now? The chances are close to null really. Maybe after the last halving is done, Then YES, it has a chance, but right now? Nope.

If the USD weakens due to the trade war, then I think gold will be the safest asset for all of us to hold. In addition, we can choose CNY or Euro because these are two currencies second largest in the world. Both currencies will be the perfect alternative to USD. And why don't you think about Bitcoin? To me, if the trade war happened, all the currencies in the world would weaken and at that time, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency would grow strongly.

The fluctuations on USD wasn't much but I'm not wagering on a full on war with Iran which warrants USD crashing. China flexed the USD weight and China and Iran are definitely not adversaries so you can take it as it is. Panic selling assets in USD isn't an advisable move and  I'm not sure how cheap it would be to convert your assets to other currencies. That being said, euro is probably your best bet if the US were to go to war with Iran. I wouldn't count out gold either. I'd feel safer investing in gold than I would Bitcoin if you're looking for stability.

The real safe asset - gold but i prefer euro

No, Euro.
I guess, the next currency is likely to be CNY. the Chinese economy from year to year is getting stronger globally. A trade war between China and the U.S. Because of the U.S. fear of disappearing US Dollar dominance worldwide and replaced with CNY. if not for that, surely there would be no trade war between them.

the points you are talking about are the safest assets right?
very clear, the answer is gold because it is guaranteed the most stable.

Gold had been a standard measure for most of the currencies and might be the most stable asset or even a slowly rising one than any currency.
Its been seen on the past that relying on just the fiat of a single currency has failed the economy several times. Gold is also used by IMF as a security deposit.
So, there's not other safe asset than gold.

What war do you mean?
From the title of your topic, I think what you mean is the replacement of the dollar as an international currency. I assume that the global community no longer wants the dollar as an international currency.

In my opinion, this is not caused by physical war or trade war, but because more and more countries in the world realize that printing dollars without backing up gold is a fatal mistake. The purpose of dedolarization is also so that America cannot export its country's crisis to other countries.

China succeeded in forming a global opinion about the dollar, it seems that China's foreign policy and propaganda of China Yuanization were responded to by many other countries because there began to emerge a movement of dedolarization in many Islamic countries and discourse to create a new gold-based currency.




http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

It's hard to shift the dollar because the portion of the dollar in the world's foreign exchange reserves is the largest. Nearly 60% of the world's foreign exchange reserves are in dollars. From the IMF data above, what might shift is the Euro if the Dollar fails, because it accounts for 28% of the total global foreign exchange reserves.

but I personally think that if the dollar fails to maintain its supremacy, I don't think there will be a chance for another fiat to become a global currency. Because the fall of the US dollar will also affect the European Union countries and all countries in the world because now America is the center of gravity. Besides the destruction of the dollar as evidence of its corruption and the failure of the fiat system. Then the world will look for alternatives to fiat money

The most likely successor is money with intrinsic and universal value and is based on gold. Bitcoin will also be an alternative, but the problem of decentralization will be a reluctance to adopt it.



Why do you think that gold is not a safe asset choice?
Many countries in the world are now consistent to increase their gold reserves by importing. Reserves are very important in a country's safe which can provide protection against domestic and external shocks and the realization of foreign capabilities and trust in a country.

in theory, it will always be won by the war-winning country because there will always be an agreement signed.

but if only in the values ​​of economic warfare, trust will actually be stronger because it involves sentiment as the main proposal, more to the battle that can still be measured on a global scale. The main assets will still return to gold, and it is undeniable that bitcoin will be an informal alternative.

If you are talking about an international main currency, I do not think Bitcoin will fit in.  Government of every country will oppose this transition and it is way too volatile for Bitcoin to replace USD and not mentioning that majority of Bitcoin supplies is hoarded by some individual only.



This is the main reason why Bitcoin will always be an alternative.

War is weakening the US dollar. That is one way of looking at it. The other way of looking at it is that it is strengthening the US dollar because the war that we are told about is in fact just a way for the US to gain more foothold in territories where there are resources to exploit on behalf of the US. War is not about principles or other abstract ideas but simply economic.

Safest assets include gold, diamonds, and other precious stones and metals and real estate properties.

Hard to say but maybe a portfolio that includes the US dollar, Euro, gold, silver, Bitcoin, and mutual funds. Plus a few other altcoins. I think the wisest thing to do is diversify.

I believe it is Chinese Yuan the next currency to use when USD gets weakening. Even now with war and other problems the economy of USA is greatly affected. In recent statistics it is China which is gonna take the position of USA soon. If such scenario takes place there'll be war, and by then everything that is digitally invested will gain importance.

yuan maybe, since china is the most country who have a trade war with USA , if this continue down , i am quite sure yuan will be next fiat.
however,if u talking about war is make a affect to crypto space, i am sure its not make any affect.

The weakening dollar has done Gold extremely well lately. It's near closing its highest weekly candle in almost 7 years. That's extremely bullish and I'm kinda leaning towards the possibility of seeing Gold test levels near $1700 in 2020.

Bitcoin on the other hands doesn't seem to get much love as result of the weaking dollar. Doesn't mean it can't still happen, but it's clear that smart money is ignoring Bitcoin, and I honestly can't blame them. If you look at both charts, it's easy to pick Gold and ride the market up, especially if you are leveraged.

https://goldprice.org/

Not really sure to answer this question, it should be very debatable. Everyone will argue based on their respective regions. Europen people must state Euro and Asian people may claim an Asian currency association.

Why not gold or property? Do you want to say Bitcoin or other digital assets? Or you want to consider some best performing commodities: https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-btc-tops-all-other-commodities-in-returns-for-2019/
However, for me, the safest options are still gold or property. They have stable values and even rising from time to time.

I think it's better to have things that can actually keep you alive in time of scarcity and choas. Those things must be easy to move around.

Some of the basic things I would invest in:  nutrient-rich foods with long-shelf life, small water filters, lots of do-it-yourself ebooks/audios/videos(and other ebooks, audio & videos), lighters, small solar panels for charging phones (and laptop), etc

In this Economic situation Yes Bitcoin might be.

Coz currencies are tied up with Country politics economy and other things.



Bitcoin is free of that things btc is just Something rare with limited supply and with biggest liquity and store value If any assets in the world.


If Economic situation start shaking then people last call Will be Bitcoin

What country has the most powerful economic power in the world? Some people say USA and China. There you have the answer. I mean, if we no longer be able to use USD to transact between country then it might be CNY as the replacement.

But for me there is no real safe asset, it could be safe for now but later it could lose its value and as the world is turning to decentralized, I think Bitcoin could be one of the safe asset.

USA dollar weakining coz of war
So what is Next currency to use?
Its a euro?


And what is the safe asset? 
I Think its not Gold and its not Property either