What is the mathematical formula for determining the value of a bet / odds?

bitbollo

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Quote from: Boristhecat on February 18, 2022, 11:12:11 AM

The problem with sports betting is that each event is unique (meaning they all have a unique probability and cannot be "counted").
...
In sports, there are no repetitions of the same events, so there are no exact calculations.

I think you're right, but un the same time, data providers should have their way to find out these "%" in a certain way.
Probably these tools are not freely available to people that are not in the industry.
But I have still some doubts because there are several database that helps to predict a certain event... (like with horse racing)

Boristhecat

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Quote from: bitbollo on February 18, 2022, 10:11:37 AM

thank you for all replies, much appreciated.
I think this is a very interesting topic to analyze since it can help to increase chance to win/ % of profit from the single bet...
beyond site that check odds from various sportsbook, and organization that provide that data...do you know any "tool" that help to define the right chance for a single event?
E.G. as you know, there are tools that helps like "poker calculator" or "blackjack calculator".
There is something similar for sport betting ?

I have not heard of such tools and most likely they simply do not exist. The problem with sports betting is that each event is unique (meaning they all have a unique probability and cannot be "counted"). In poker, the number of cards is always the same, and you can always calculate the probability of a particular card appearing. In football, the match between Real Madrid and Barcelona in the first round of the championship is completely different from the match between them in the second, and even more different from the same matches in the previous year. In sports, there are no repetitions of the same events, so there are no exact calculations.

bitbollo

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thank you for all replies, much appreciated.
I think this is a very interesting topic to analyze since it can help to increase chance to win/ % of profit from the single bet...
beyond site that check odds from various sportsbook, and organization that provide that data...do you know any "tool" that help to define the right chance for a single event?
E.G. as you know, there are tools that helps like "poker calculator" or "blackjack calculator".
There is something similar for sport betting ?

KTChampions

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Quote from: uneng on February 17, 2022, 02:54:58 PM

Taking the opportunity of the purpose of this thread, could anyone answer if there is a kind of "central gambling authority" who/which is the first to determine the odds of a match by himself/itself, so another platforms take that as reference, using those same values inside their own sites as well? Let's say, minor gambling sites copy the odds from larger and more popular gambling sites. Is it what happen for real?

There is no central organization, but this market, like all others, is gradually being enlarged and monopolized. Bookmakers buy data from organizations such as this one: Sportradar
As far as I know, some large bookmakers do their own analytical work, but the vast majority buy data and analytics from third-party organizations. I think Google will give you a lot more details (or that wiki article you see above).

uneng

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Taking the opportunity of the purpose of this thread, could anyone answer if there is a kind of "central gambling authority" who/which is the first to determine the odds of a match by himself/itself, so another platforms take that as reference, using those same values inside their own sites as well? Let's say, minor gambling sites copy the odds from larger and more popular gambling sites. Is it what happen for real?

Boristhecat

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Quote from: bitbollo on February 16, 2022, 12:12:23 PM

Each bet has a value, which is the probability/odds that a certain event will occur.

Beyond the arbitrage that occurs on a bookmaker, regardless of the result of an event, they have always a profit...
what system can be a system to calculate the value of a bet?

Are there any resources, forms, notes that make it possible to derive the value of each bet / odds?

(topic moderated to avoid spam and off topics)

The coefficient that bookmakers give for an event is inversely proportional to the probability of its occurrence. So if the bookmaker accepts bets with a coefficient of 3, then the probability of this event occurring is 1/3=33.33%. But you must remember that bookmakers "twist" the odds in their favor. Usually their margin is 5-6 percent. Therefore, if you see a coefficient of 3, then this means that this outcome will occur with a probability of 33.33% multiplied by 0.95, which will be approximately 31.66%.

molsewid

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Quote from: crwth on February 17, 2022, 12:28:24 AM

This is a very complex type of formula if you are going to intake a lot of parameters with a specific team/sport or whatever chances you have in winning. To determine that, you need to have an enormous amount of data (if you want to automate it and factor in all possible variables that play a role in determining the winner). With just value and data, I think you can have a formula.

You can consider what data you would use on that formula because usually, the win rate is one of the factors for the matches, and they use that to the number of chances that that specific team could win with a particular game.

I think there would always be a human intervention and not just automatically determining the bet/odds of a match.

I do feel what OP have had feel asking this kind of question because I do curious about how does this betting odds in a game or fight has been calculated. This is truly one of a kind of complex computation that a certified bookmaker can do and with his expertise he can do it excellently. Somehow, there are also some betting odds that are automatically computed by the system but I guess I will be more confident if there will be a human intervention in computing odds.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: bitbollo on February 16, 2022, 12:12:23 PM

Each bet has a value, which is the probability/odds that a certain event will occur.

Beyond the arbitrage that occurs on a bookmaker, regardless of the result of an event, they have always a profit...
what system can be a system to calculate the value of a bet?

Are there any resources, forms, notes that make it possible to derive the value of each bet / odds?

(topic moderated to avoid spam and off topics)

Odds providers have their own statistical models like weather forecasting companies. Some sportsbooks allow to bet on weather forecasts although.
You can try to beat their forecasts if you are able to find the "real odds" more accurately than them, but it would take a lot of time for a single man while they have teams of guys dedicated and paid to work on that all day long. And to make profits you will have to overcome the cut they are taking on odds in addition. So you will need to be more accurate than them by several percents in the long run. It's hardly sustainable IMO.

ralle14

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I have to agree with the others as well, there are too many factors that easily affect the odds even though a lot of the times the bookies are on point with the odds they still make mistakes though. In esports, there are other factors that include team compositions during the picking phase then for the most part it's based on the gold lead and tempo of the game. I'm guessing for the live odds they have some sort of model that predicts the probability of both teams in real-time, it's scary how most of the time they're accurate though.

crwth

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This is a very complex type of formula if you are going to intake a lot of parameters with a specific team/sport or whatever chances you have in winning. To determine that, you need to have an enormous amount of data (if you want to automate it and factor in all possible variables that play a role in determining the winner). With just value and data, I think you can have a formula.

You can consider what data you would use on that formula because usually, the win rate is one of the factors for the matches, and they use that to the number of chances that that specific team could win with a particular game.

I think there would always be a human intervention and not just automatically determining the bet/odds of a match.

Darker45

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There are more than a couple of factors involved in this. Surely, there are technologies that would make analyses of a considerable amount of data a lot easier. There are odds compilers as well. These help bookmakers come up with reasonable or logical odds.

However, these are not enough. There are data, non-numerical ones, that are impossible to be analyzed automatically. Injuries, for example, or simply bad shape, and so on could be considered in the odds manually.

Upon release of odds to the market, there is also the factor of how much money is flowing into which player or team. Analysis will also be done on this and odds are adjusted accordingly, putting into consideration the margin, which is where bookies get their profit from.

Wexnident

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I don't think an accurate formula could be given as to how odd providers actually provide their odds, since there's a lot of data involved and not to mention it also includes data on a players status, past medical statements, and whatnot which isn't really something you could punch in into a mathematical model and have it automatically return a number you could use to adjust the odds set.

Though I guess at some point or form, odd providers have a centralized value (or at least, very close to each other) for certain regular factors like as I said, medical statements/injuries of a player, which makes the odds they set almost the same as other odd providers. E.g., setting a value of 2 (random number, don't think much about it) to a team that plays on their home field then adjusting the odds based on that. But again, there are still a lot of factors involved.

seoincorporation

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The sports bets gets their odds from odds providers like oddsshark: https://www.oddsshark.com/

And that's because the sports betting sites need to work all together with the same odds, if any casino decides to calculate their own odds that will give an advantage to a user and let me explain why.

Let's say there will be a UFC fight and we see the next odds:
Derrick Lewis (1.53) Vs Tai Tuivasa (2.50)

If a casino decides to calculate their own odds and do something like:
Derrick Lewis (2.50) Vs Tai Tuivasa (1.53)

Then the user can place bets in both casinos, $1000 on Tai Tuivasa (2.50) and $1000 on Derrick Lewis (2.50), this way the user will end with a $500 profit no matter what's the fight result. And this is why the odds must be coordinated for all the sports books.

If you want to learn more about the topic and the math side, I will leave this article for you: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/betting-101/how-to-read-sports-odds/

Hydrogen

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To set the best possible odds, bookies have many inside sources of information. If an athlete or team is having personal problems or is unmotivated and not training up to their usual standards. Anything that might affect the performance of an athlete or team that is being bet on. Oddsmakers will know of it long before the general public does. Said sources of inside information are one of the biggest advantages oddsmakers have over the casual sports gambler.

Insider trading in wallstreet and cryptocurrencies is a real thing. If investors know an announcement is coming that will jack up the price of an asset, they'll often buy in early and reap the benefits of inside information. The same precedent is found in sports gambling. There were rumors of Francis Ngannou having a knee injury going into his fight with Ciryl Gane. Gamblers with inside sources could have tried to take advantage of this, which could explain the massive betting line shift in Ciryl Gane's favor.

The best mathematical formula for determining the value of a bet is to acknowledge that oddsmakers have better sources of information and the line is set in whatever way they believe will earn casinos and sportsbooks the largest profits.

BitcoinGirl.Club

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Quote from: bitbollo on February 16, 2022, 12:12:23 PM

what system can be a system to calculate the value of a bet?

In my understanding there are few data providers around the world. A very few and all of them work together as a syndicate. Then there are providers who rent those data and sell systems to the bookies. Finally the bookies buy a system from the providers and regular people like us gamble there.

Now about determining odds. It should be depending on various factors. For example in a football match the odd for win draw win market will depends on the main lineup of both teams, previous head to head performance, current form of the teams, the managers roles in the previous matches even the weather forecast can play a vital role. There could be hundreds to thousands of factors which directly or indirectly determines the current odd you see in the bookies.

Did you even wonder why almost all bookies has very similar odds that you can not even arbitrage very easily with other bookies to make profit?

bitbollo

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Each bet has a value, which is the probability/odds that a certain event will occur.

Beyond the arbitrage that occurs on a bookmaker, regardless of the result of an event, they have always a profit...
what system can be a system to calculate the value of a bet?

Are there any resources, forms, notes that make it possible to derive the value of each bet / odds?

(topic moderated to avoid spam and off topics)

Topic: What is the mathematical formula for determining the value of a bet / odds? (Read 170 times)