What is the maximum number of loosing streak possible in dice with 20%/5x win?

Mahanton

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Quote from: Darker45 on January 08, 2023, 07:46:13 AM

Everything is possible. There's no maximum. Each roll is completely independent from each other. So, even if you're already on a 20-roll losing streak, it doesn't mean the 21^st roll is more likely a win. It could still be a loss.

That applies even to 2x payout, which has almost 50% win chance considering there is always a house edge. So, how much more if it's 5x you are trying to hit? With 5x payout, the chance of winning is less than 20%. The possibility of losing is much higher, so the possibility of a longer losing streak is also higher.

The higher the payout the higher the chance of losing money or losing bets and just like on what most people been saying that it would really be totally in random but with that 20% winning chance then it would
be understandable that on every 5 bets there would be only 1 winning roll but we know the true essence or in fact the reality that it couldnt really stop just there on that few losing streaks.
20 losing streak is small and we are talking about 2x and just said that how much more on 5x which is more than on those 2 where it would be just typical that odds
would become worst or lessen up the chances for you to win up.

goinmerry

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on January 08, 2023, 07:08:52 AM

No. It's proven that with using martingale strategy, not only you don't increase your chance, but you decrease your chance.
If you use martingale strategy, you will finally lose all your money. To succeed, you need unlimited balance. Since it's impossible to have an unlimited balance, the strategy doesn't work as excepted by some people like you.

Either way, be increasing your chance or decreasing, that's not how martingale works. So is the other strategy if we refer to luck-based games.

Martingale is NOT a strategy but rather a betting type or kind.

If used that kind of betting type is, all rolls are still subject to the provably fair and random hashes or seeds.

sunsilk

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on January 07, 2023, 10:40:49 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on January 07, 2023, 05:24:36 PM

There's sort of experiment that OP is trying to do but he'll eventually find it out that there's really no such that limits the possible losing streak that he's going to get.

Usually questions like the OP's come from gamblers without much knowledge who are hoping to beat the casino using Martingale or one of its variants, and that he is planning to:

Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:55:20 PM

<...> get 5$ a day maybe.

indicates that this is the case.

He can get that but with a bigger capital if that's he's achieving to have, some may say that it's an easy amount to achieve because they always did and some will say that it's hard for them because of having not that much capital.

If so, OP should understand that these variants of strategies, he has to try it if he can afford to do so and test it out for which is the best strategy that will make him satisfy taking home $5 a day.

Darker45

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Everything is possible. There's no maximum. Each roll is completely independent from each other. So, even if you're already on a 20-roll losing streak, it doesn't mean the 21^st roll is more likely a win. It could still be a loss.

That applies even to 2x payout, which has almost 50% win chance considering there is always a house edge. So, how much more if it's 5x you are trying to hit? With 5x payout, the chance of winning is less than 20%. The possibility of losing is much higher, so the possibility of a longer losing streak is also higher.

LoyceV

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If you think there's a maximum to random numbers, you couldn't be more wrong. If you try often enough, anything is possible.
It may be nice to do the math: I (years ago) called this the "Landen-strategy" (named after a user who played this for months and won big before losing even bigger). Take a look at the spreadsheet, it's a low chance high win martingale strategy. If you play one round, the chance to win is incredibly high, as long as your bankroll is high enough and you're willing to risk everything for relatively small gains.
If you play this often enough, you will eventually lose everything.

piebeyb

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there is no maximum when playing dice rolls and moreover I often use the martingale technique of course I have experienced losing streaks of more than 5x and even spent my money for the next round and stopped losing my funds too, playing martingale of course you need to have large capital too but not sure about that would work because it could have been on a losing streak dozens of times, I realized that the house would always win our money

hosseinimr93

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Quote from: klidex on January 08, 2023, 07:03:33 AM

And this strategy has been used by many gamblers and has proven to be successful.

No. It's proven that with using martingale strategy, not only you don't increase your chance, but you decrease your chance.
If you use martingale strategy, you will finally lose all your money. To succeed, you need unlimited balance. Since it's impossible to have an unlimited balance, the strategy doesn't work as excepted by some people like you.

klidex

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Quote from: seleme on January 07, 2023, 04:19:07 PM

Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:28:33 PM

I need to know maximum possible streak number without hitting 5x once?

If it is possible to see 34 times loss streak without 2x on dice ( below 49.5) then we can multiply the payout ratio/hitting frequency for other multipliers. I have personally seen 43 times without 4x on dice so for 5x it can go straight downhill for 65+, IMHO.

Exactly, weve seen the worst with those losing streaks using whether the common strategy martingale or using up other strategies and this is why im not really that a fan on chasing up multipliers because no matter

how you do make up calculations but still wont really be that enough for you to be assured that you would make winnings or guaranteed profit.Im not saying it isnt effective but
people do always love to choose.If we do see 30+ losing streaks on a 2x odds then how much more on 5x which would even more worst.
There are sites which does have demo which it wouldn't be a bad idea to test up those runs.

I don't know why but majority of gamblers love to choose martingale based on previous loss streaks. Somehow reverse martingale is understandable but for insane loss streaks this money management strategy is useless and guaranteed loss. OP can run simulation and see what was max loss streaks for target multi in billions of rolls.

By using the martingale strategy a gambler can recover the amount of losses he has experienced and I think this strategy can indeed be expected to be able to develop all consecutive losses.
However, the martingale strategy requires a sizable amount of capital because gamblers must continue to increase the number of bets in each bet until they win the last bet. And this strategy has been used by many gamblers and has proven to be successful.

jostorres

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Quote from: harizen on January 07, 2023, 06:37:12 PM

Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:28:33 PM

I need to know maximum possible streak number without hitting 5x once?

On that part, I think we can't able to determine that as that was system-based.

Maybe if some part of the technical team of a certain gambling site will lurk here, they can give a much more accurate response to your concern.

Not sure about these but maybe you can ask directly the site thru their contact information and who knows they might give you information regarding that.

There are probabilities but there are no guarantees that it will always be followed. There are times where we can hit 5x at one or two rolls only and there were also times where we hit it over 20 rolls. In gambling, it is important to not be confident and bet huge because you are expecting that you will double or triple your money after a short period of time.

Technical teams of a gambling site are busy, more if the admin but the one that can only lurk in the forum are in charge on the promotion or marketing. I don't think they have a good knowledge about how odds works but they are only good at the field that they have applied with. This is where they are being paid of.

Bitinity

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It is possible because every single bet is independent, the previous result does not affect your next result. Just the same when you try a coinflip, you can get the same side 10 times out of 10 tries. There were some experienced by users where they got up to 30 consecutive loss with 2x payout, so getting 60 consecutive loss with 5x is possible. It is even possible that you'll get 100 consecutive loss with 5x. When the bad luck comes, the longer consecutive loss you'll get. So I have to say that there is no maximum number when it comes to luck, you can get a long consecutive wins as well as you can get a long consecutive loss.

Vaskiy

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I haven't tried with 5x return on the bet value. I've tried with 3x return on the bet value. Roll over 67 and roll under 33, upon this I've experienced continuous loss of 12 bets. On consecutive betting on under 33 and over 67 I've won good. So, we can't be sure about the algorithm and the results. Things vary in reality and this too has some connections with luck.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: sunsilk on January 07, 2023, 05:24:36 PM

There's sort of experiment that OP is trying to do but he'll eventually find it out that there's really no such that limits the possible losing streak that he's going to get.

Usually questions like the OP's come from gamblers without much knowledge who are hoping to beat the casino using Martingale or one of its variants, and that he is planning to:

Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:55:20 PM

<...> get 5$ a day maybe.

indicates that this is the case.

This is often due to a common confusion between the result of a series and the result of an individual roll. This type of player tends to believe that if a certain result has come up 10 times in a row, say heads or tails has come up 10 times in a row, then on the next roll, the probability of heads is much higher. But this is not the case, the probability of each individual spin is still 50% (or in casino games slightly less, due to the HE). The probability of an 11 series of rolls coming up 11 heads is almost 0 (0.0488 %) but the gambler is not betting on a series of 11 rolls, he is betting on each individual roll.

harizen

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Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:28:33 PM

I need to know maximum possible streak number without hitting 5x once?

On that part, I think we can't able to determine that as that was system-based.

Maybe if some part of the technical team of a certain gambling site will lurk here, they can give a much more accurate response to your concern.

Not sure about these but maybe you can ask directly the site thru their contact information and who knows they might give you information regarding that.

BitcoinPanther

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Interesting, I asked chatgpt about the question and answered this

Quote

If you are rolling a dice with a 20% chance of winning on each roll, and you are trying to get a "streak" of 5 wins in a row, the maximum number of losing streaks you could have before achieving 5 wins in a row would be 4. This is because you would need to roll the dice at least 5 times to have the possibility of achieving a streak of 5 wins in a row. If you did not win on any of the first 4 rolls, you would have 4 losing streaks of length 1, but you would still have the possibility of achieving a streak of 5 wins on the fifth roll. If you did not win on the fifth roll either, you would have a losing streak of length 5, but you would still have the possibility of achieving a streak of 5 wins on the sixth roll, and so on.

Quote

the maximum number of losing streaks you could have before achieving that number of wins would be one less than the number of wins you are trying to achieve.

Theoretically the formula would be

N-1=MLS

where

N = number of wins
MLS = maximum number of losing streaks

But when applied in reality there is no cap on the maximum number of losing streaks because each spin is independent from each other.

sunsilk

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OP has been delighted with the answers already about the possibility that there's no maximum number and anything is of possibility in dice with that ratio and percentage.

There's sort of experiment that OP is trying to do but he'll eventually find it out that there's really no such that limits the possible losing streak that he's going to get.

bitcampaign

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it seems there is no maximum number and I think playing dice depends on luck even when I use the martingale strategy sometimes you can lose lucky up to more than 10x, whatever you try the dealer will still be the winner

chaser15

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I think and truly believed that there's no set maximum number of possible losing streaks since every roll is under the algorithm of the provably fair.

In a case that a losing streak is now on 10x, 15x, or even higher, that was crazy and you are really unlucky and unfortunate.

Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:55:20 PM

Do you think 60 loss or more is possible with 5x profit set? I am not planing to get rich. I am planning to get 5$ a day maybe.

For the possibility, yes. But what's the percentage for that to happen can't be determined.

Let me guess, is your question have to do with a martingale strategy?

dothebeats

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It's all probability and luck. You can log all the results and make an analysis off of it, but you'll never really come to a definite answer on the maximum number of losses on such a setup. Each game has its own different identity that does not affect the results of past games. If that's the case, then everyone will be off to crack the algorithm in order to make a lot of money and casinos will not exist in the first place.

You can come up with your own conclusions and your own analysis and see whether you'll be able to come close with the actual results of your gambling session, but I'll doubt it'll come close the first try.

nakamura12

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I think that there's not exact maximum loosing streak in dice as it depends on a person's luck. I could say that there might be an average of which gambler maximum lose streak in dice. I did play dice but I didn't play like what you explained but I tried playing dice and this is what I experience that sometimes I have winning streak but later on loosing streak. In short word, It is very random and I don't know when ot will happen but mostly I lose all my money.

seleme

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Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:28:33 PM

I need to know maximum possible streak number without hitting 5x once?

If it is possible to see 34 times loss streak without 2x on dice ( below 49.5) then we can multiply the payout ratio/hitting frequency for other multipliers. I have personally seen 43 times without 4x on dice so for 5x it can go straight downhill for 65+, IMHO.

hosseinimr93

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Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:55:20 PM

Do you think 60 loss or more is possible with 5x profit set? I am not planing to get rich. I am planning to get 5$ a day maybe.

Yes, It is. As I already said in my previous post, everything is possible.

With 5x multiplier, the chance of winning a single bet would be around 20%. (Due to the house edge, the chance of winning a single bet would be a bit smaller than 20%).
The chance of losing 60 times in a row would be around 0.00015%.
With this low probability, you may think that it's almost impossible to have 60 consecutive losses. If so, you should note that with playing more games, the chance of having 60 consecutive losses would increase exponentially. Assuming you need to win 1 million bets to reach your goal, the chance of not having 60 consecutive losses would be only 21%.

I know what you are trying to do. Be sure that you will finally lose all your balance.

DoublerHunter

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on January 07, 2023, 03:38:40 PM

There is no maximum number and any number of consecutive losses is possible. Take note that every time you wager, you play a new game which is independent from previous games and everything is possible.
If you are looking for a method to get rich, that's not possible. House will defeat you in the long run.

^You pointed it out.
If gambling works like this calculation, I think everyone knows how to calculate your odds in gambling which make you rich in that way.
I think gambling is there are no specific numbers that you must follow especially when it comes to dice 95% is based on luck and the rest would be your calculation. You cannot defeat the house edge and that is the fact in gambling that is based on luck and fighting against the house edge. It should be for fun and not for making money.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: onuarnob on January 07, 2023, 03:55:20 PM

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on January 07, 2023, 03:38:40 PM

There is no maximum number and any number of consecutive losses is possible. Take note that every time you wager, you play a new game which is independent from previous games and everything is possible.
If you are looking for a method to get rich, that's not possible. House will defeat you in the long run.

Do you think 60 loss or more is possible with 5x profit set? I am not planing to get rich. I am planning to get 5$ a day maybe.

Really hard to tell considering in all the experience i do have in dice then it is something would give you those lose streaks that you havent encountered before. Lets just put up some example about using martingale

considering that it is really just 2x with <50% chance due to HE but it did still give out that highest so for of 20-26 consecutive loss and that would be depending on your bankroll size.
If you do make out some just plain bet without using some strategies then it could be calculated mathematically but just like on the rest been saying that
no one can point out on how long it would be.

pixie85

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on January 07, 2023, 03:38:40 PM

There is no maximum number and any number of losses in a row is possible. Take note that every time you wager, you play a new game which is independent from previous games and everything is possible.
If you are looking for a method to get rich, that's not possible. House will defeat you in the long run.

Unfortunately, that's it.

At 50% if it was just math your probability of rolling a win in dice should go up with every loss and after a few thousand rolls you should be at around 50% of wins. That's not the case with online dice though because you're not physically throwing it like in a real casino but you're running the same algorithm along 100 users or more at the same time.

The algo is going to be at 50% win but one of you can be getting more wins than the other. It's possible someone who plays at the same time is getting 5 wins and you're getting 5 losses in a row and the total stats of the game remain at 50%.

Probably every single person who plays dice had a streak of 10 or more losses in a row at 49% even though in a real game of dice you'd have to try very hard to achieve that.

onuarnob

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on January 07, 2023, 03:38:40 PM

There is no maximum number and any number of consecutive losses is possible. Take note that every time you wager, you play a new game which is independent from previous games and everything is possible.
If you are looking for a method to get rich, that's not possible. House will defeat you in the long run.

Do you think 60 loss or more is possible with 5x profit set? I am not planing to get rich. I am planning to get 5$ a day maybe.

hosseinimr93

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There is no maximum number and any number of consecutive losses is possible. Take note that every time you wager, you play a new game which is independent from previous games and everything is possible.
If you are looking for a method to get rich, that's not possible. House will defeat you in the long run.

Hispo

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If I recall correctly, it would be 2 wins for every 8 loses or 1 win every 4 losses.
But statistically, it can vary according to your luck, OP.

I would recommend you to read a bit about basic statistics or law of probabilities. It is useful to understand how much you are risking and helps you to adjust your risk threshold to a level you feel comfortable with.

onuarnob

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I need to know maximum possible streak number without hitting 5x once?

Topic: What is the maximum number of loosing streak possible in dice with 20%/5x win? (Read 241 times)