Topic: What was a more rediculous bubble 2013 $1200s or 2011 $30s? (Read 1156 times)

I subscribed to a different 'emotional narrative' back then. It was still 'fight the bankers' (and get rich doing it) but I was a gold bug and invested a significant amount of capital into PM's through late 2010. I heard about Bitcoin in early 2011, when the Bitcoins were still in raging form, due to finding out they were needed to purchase shit on Silk Road. At the time, I found the whole Bitcoin concept utterly fascinating and was indeed a foaming at the mouth advocate of their huge potential. I can remember musing with friends that if Bitcoins really started to take off, what would there be to stop it it hitting $1000!?

However, I never really did invest in Bitcoin in these days. Because of my emotional attachment to the whole defeat hyperinflation with precious metals narrative any capital that I set aside for investment purposes went into PM's. At the time, it seemed silly to do anything else. Also, late 2010 was the first time in my life where I found myself with spare capital to invest thanks to a career change.

The £500 'wildcard' Bitcoin investment that I did make, all ended up turning into Silk Road coins.

Had Gold went to $5000 or whatever like all the gold-bug bloggers were telling me it was sure to do, I would have held. Back then, i was a precious metals HODLER. In 2011 however, both Silver and Gold hit their ATHs substantially short of what the Gold Bugs were forecasting, but because of my emotional attachment to the whole gold bug narrative, I never came to actually acknowledge this until perhaps October/November 2012. By late 2012, Bitcoin was about $10-$15 or something, which was way way more than I was used to paying. I figured, that because Bitcoin's value was driven by Silk Road demand, that the price would surge in the period approaching the festive season but retreat in January, just like it did in 2011. When it did, then I was going to make a £1000 investment. Of course, we all knew what happened next. As Bitcoin surged up past $36, I warned my brother who became suddenly interested due to the spike in media attention, to keep well away from this dangerous bubble!

I never bought and held single digit Bitcoin because:

• I was emotionally subscribed to a different narrative/paradigm
• I understood nothing about investing

I never bought and held double digit Bitcoin because:

• I assumed that I understood the forces behind the asset when I actually knew jack-shit
• I understood nothing about investing

Many people here did buy and hold Bitcoin in double and single digits because:

• They were emotionally invested in the Bitcoin narrative and fight the bankers paradigm
• They assume they understand the forces behind the market although they know jack shit
• They understood nothing about investing

But there is no success like failure as they say, and one can only learn from his mistakes and learned from my mistakes I have. I suspect however, that there are many around here who are yet to be taught the same lessons that getting into the precious metal markets at the 11th hour and intellectually subscribing to a big pile of emotionally appealing bullshit, taught me.

EDIT: Although I liquidated all my 'electronic silver' at a small loss, I still have all the physical bullion coins that I bought in 2010, which is worth on aggregate about 15% less now than what I paid for it (silver has been the bad one, gold down about 10%). However, I am still pleased that I have it. I see it as the ultimate insurance policy, even if its prices drops to half of what it is now. Owning Bitcoins however through a Bitcoin bear market or through periods of economic uncertainty brings me zero comfort or assurance that if things all go tits up, at least I have my 'lines of computer code'.

True.

Unless of course you consider a series of steep rises and partial falls to be a "bubble". If that's the case, when does it stop being a bubble? After it's through the vertical phase of the growth curve and has started to level off?

...coma... alzheimer's...   definitely more than just luck

If you care to notice, the thread I referenced gives you a reason why this extrapolation isn't necessarily true.

Nope, bitcoin bubbles don't work this way. Based on historical data (except the starting 2011 bubble), the top is about 15x - 20x
the bottom from which is starts. So with a bottom of 100$ - 300$ for this bubble, the top of the next could be in the 1500$ - 6000$ range.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-is-not-digital-gold-it-is-digital-rhodium-189308

The 2016 bubble from $250 to $650,000 will top that.

I think the bubble from $800 to 10,000 is the most rediculous

There should be a fourth option:

"All the above. Bitcoin is a bubble"

Exactly.

But you always call people who held that long "lucky". Now, by your own admission, it seems like it would take a bit more than "luck".

Okay, that may have been a bit harsh. But as much as you get irritated by the nutters and bulltards of this forum, there is an equivalent breed that comes out to lick bloodied bones when the price heads south. Generally speaking, Ed50 seems to fall into that camp.

To be fair to Edward, in recent times he bought in on Dec 2013 post crash bounce in the $500 range or possibly the low $600s. I remember this cos I was sitting around Butthurt at the time due to shooting myself in the foot on a Bitcoin trade, yet Edward was stating that he believed Bitcoin would rise up to $1000.....very unusual for him and he was accused by some of 'talking his book', which he was, and he wasn't far wrong.

There is only one bubble.

There is no bubble This is Bitcoin

Ah, Edward50. The leering vulture of Bitcointalk.

Always worth bringing back this thread from 2011 whenever you pop up with another "analysis".

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.639522

Even if bitcoin plummets in the next few days, you have still spent the last couple of years consistently being wrong in an obnoxiously trollish fashion.

Yeah....they did.

I should know cos I bought and spent plenty of Bitcoins on Silk Road during this time period.

Great shame I never held any that I got at this price, innit?  

but I am not (that) bitter....I know very well that I would have creamed my pants and cashed out the instant I doubled or trebled my money back in those days.

I used to believe that Silk Road users kept Bitcoin alive providing Bitcoin with ever present liquidity regardless of what the price was doing...but then up until 2013, I believed that Silk Road was the main driver of Bitcoin price, so that shows how much I knew back then.


The kind of bubble where the price is based almost entirely on delusions of avarice on future value?

about what kind od bubble are you talking about?

Did dark net websites use it as a currency in 2011? If not, then I'd say 2011 was more ridiculous as its utility was lower.

Honestly, I don't know which bubble was more ridiculous. I would say the $1200 bubble was probably more ridiculous. Although the $30 bubble was very ridiculous at a time when it went from pennies a coin to $30 in a matter of months.