Topic: What will be the next bubble's hook? (Read 794 times)

OR, what if the next "hook" is simply the allure of "making millions" by HODLING Bitcoin, like it was with us some years ago?

Be prepared to educate them before franky1 does. Hahaha.

I don't really know what will make the price to go up, maybe more hypes will do. But I do think that as long as the price keeps on going up, a lot of people will take interest and start to rush in (FOMO). I don't there as anyone that would like to miss out as the price reaches a high price, so they will start buying and that will be pushing the price upwards. Or maybe there will be a project that will cause the spark and make the price to boom. I have seen some people that are having doubts and some are saying that it is going to be in 2020 due to the hard fork

I haven't kept up with the STO phenomenon. With "utility token" ICOs the issuers were clearly trying to dodge securities laws so they could openly offer the tokens to anyone.

Since a STO is obviously a security offering, how do most of them approach US investors? Do they only allow accredited investors, or otherwise prohibit them? Accredited investor status is not easy to achieve for regular retail folks.

I think the adoption could be a cause for the correction. I mean it will have to be an insane price to even get to that point but after a certain number we would have to consider how much bitcoin is used daily and where you can use it and seeing it not that common in most of the world will make the price go down eventually.

People will come to a conclusion of "well I have this much bitcoin that I can't do anything with it, maybe I should sell it and actually buy something". In the end profiting is great but at a certain point people will say that they would rather spend some of that profit than actually keep it on their bank accounts, I would love to a billionaire one day but I am definitely going to buy great stuff until I became one as well. So, that adoption could cause some issues later down the road.

I believe ICOs, but in the form of IEOs which is showing signs that "they're not permanently toast", but a cyclical, or seasonal phenomenon in the market. If bubbles can happen, they will happen.

prolly you are right, there is a lot of buzz about STO in last months..

Yes that's true. We can implement smart contracts through various BIPs which can be introduced in the future. But the primary goal of bitcoin was to use them as a payment system rather than being a tool for developers to develop smart contracts. Ethereum was designed for developers and Solidity is much more easier to learn and master when comparing with C++. We can have BIPs to help bitcoin support smart contracts but I am not really sure how well it could be executed successfully over time. Ethereum moved from being a developer's tool to a scammers tool during the 2017 price pump.

This is like comparing other payment coins with bitcoin. Neo is good but they are backed by Chinese government and they are much more look like a distributed blockchain network rather than being decentralized. With ICOs rising at an enormous rate with Ethereum behind them, Neo and other smart contract blockchains are still being in the initial stages. We can never consider Ethereum as money or a wannabe money unless being used in ICOs to buy worthless tokens, they are designed for being a tool and probably like a research project. Ethereum has been popularized due to its use in scamming investors and churning out money from the newbies. 

What are you trying to say about the Great Depression exactly? Many economists theorize the gold standard greatly exacerbated the Depression.

What exactly do you think is going to happen in the next crash? You keep talking about unsustainable debt but what do believe is actually going to happen?


FYI, the Fed has been engaging in quantitative easing policies since the 1930s. Nothing here is really unprecedented.

https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/14110_-_bordo_-_exiting_from_low_interest_rates_to_normality_-_an_historical_perspective.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#History

A collapse today would act nothing like the 1929 crash and depression of the 30s. The difference is back then we were on the gold standard, and today fiat has nothing backing it - that and there is an insurmountable national debt that grows at the astonishing rate of a trillion+ every year. The rest of the world isn't doing much better.
You sound intelligent, but clearly underestimate the severity of the current situation. Quantitative easing is the last desperate attempt to prolong the inevitable total economic crash. Anybody who sees it as any kind of a fix is really stupid or really in denial.

Bitcoin is still inflationary. Supply is currently inflating at 3-4% annual.

A limited supply commodity will be a better hedge than speculative assets, sure, but even gold crashed during the 2008 crisis. In an economic contraction, money flows out of everything.


I would draw a big distinction between a traditional stock market crash or recession and a fiat currency collapse. In the former scenario, cash is king and even commodity monies fall in value. In the latter scenario, we would see money flow into hard commodity money (like gold....and Bitcoin, if people have enough faith in it). But it's much harder to predict when the USD might collapse. I've been hearing goldbugs predict imminent collapse for multiple decades.

Bitcoin is a completely new and experimental asset class. It's only a decade old and it's still prone to horrible bugs (like the inflation bug patched last year). It has extremely strong theoretical properties as money but it's still fairly untested, especially at great scale. As such, people naturally view it as a speculative asset rather than a hedge asset.

We think that. However it doesn't matter what we think about it. We're all too far down the rabbit hole.

The rest of the world does not feel that way. We'll sure as shit know when it does. I reckon at the very least that significant and widespread a change in perception is a decade away at the absolute extreme minimum.

I say this because the stock market is pumped with fiat that is becoming more and more inflated as well as quantitative easing fiat (money created out of thin air then added to a deficit that will never be paid back). Bitcoin on the other hand is deflationairy - it's fixed supply makes it a great hedge. I'm not sure why you guys treat bitcoin like it's just another asset class - the properties of it make it the perfect hedge in a crashing economy.
I believe we are in the final stages of economic collapse - quantitative easing will only work for so long until the dollar value collapses, taking the stock market with it. Thanks alot Ronald Reagan, the devil himself took office and put our economy on a path to ruin by financing tax cuts and heavy military spending with future debt that has done nothing but grow out of control since. Fuck you Reagan, the worst GD excuse for a president we've ever had.

That's one day of price action. I'm talking about the last decade. Let's zoom out and compare the long term charts:





I see two raging bull markets. In other words, Bitcoin has never experienced a real stock market crash or recession. So I'm pretty hesitant to assume the long term correlation will turn negative if/when that actually happens.


I totally agree. Bitcoin is still considered extremely speculative compared to traditional investments and hedges. Speculative assets generally don't fare well during recessions because investors and businesses are unwinding speculative positions, not building them.

We'd require a proper recession type thing to get a feel. A day or two here and there means nothing.

If it happened ten years from now BTC has a chance of standing separately from it. If it's within the next couple of years I think it'll take a shit just like everything else. To most it's not a hedge yet. It's a toy. And they're the first thing to be sold.

I think you are wrong - yesterday the dow tanked 600 points and bitcoin went up nearly a grand. I absolutely stand by my assertion that when the stock market tanks money will flow into bitcoin.

altcoins generally offer nothing the real world cares about. however, that was true in 2013 before they bubbled. it was also true in 2017 before they bubbled. so i wouldn't get too hung up on this line of thinking. fundamentals simply don't matter in a bubble.

all that matters is hype, greed, the perception of supply scarcity, and a thin ask side. when i started trading in early 2013, i immediately opted for litecoin because it was so "cheap" and thus i assumed it had much more upside. do you have any idea how many newcomers have this mentality? they're not coming for bitcoin, they're coming for the next bitcoin.

Which means we all fully understand that the only cryptocurrency that has ever existed and would ever remain crypto is bitcoin, and if we know this, why are we still giving chances to some of these companies that has nothing to offer us other than to take people’s money and never work in line with what cryptocurrency was created for.

I think it will be the high time, we too, who are investors supports the vision for cryptocurrency by using it for what it was created for, we need to embrace bitcoin and not only invest in it, buts start using it for our transactions so that the vision of crypto can be clearly defined and seen.

Isn't it possible in future to implement smart contracts on bitcoin blockchain on second layer? Wouldn't that make bitcoin similar to etherum?

And neo, waves, eos, nem, BNB and hundreds more. ETH is not unique.

In my opinion we have thousands of blockchains (most of them very similar) while only 1 is needed. And this one (bitcoin) is hitting masses the most effective (although its not the fastest).

I was always in favor of Btc, Eth, Xmr and all the 3 are quite unique in terms of development and serving the public. They can be called as a "Trinity probably. LTC is more or less a fork of BTC and can be used as payment services.

Apart from being a payment system, Ethereum is like a Decetralized World Computer. Developers can help their company to create tokenized assets on top of the blockchain, store confidential records which cannot be destroyed over time, smart contracts for running a decentralized trustless gambling casino and a lot more. Though these can only be possible with Ether and its blockchain, there are quite few disadvantages due to the useless ERC20 tokens generated out of thin air which are more commonly used as a tool for scamming poor newbie investors.

Tanking of Ether occurs mainly due to these scam token companies dumping their Ether and converting them to USD and running away with money. ICOs are the primary reason for the dumping of Ether and they would continue unless the true use case of Ethereum blockchain is found.

If Bitcoin is a payment system, Ethereum is used for running decentralized applications. Both are unique and very much different in their idea and can never be compared. Ethereum is never considered to be a store of value nor it isn't created to serve the purpose. When the companies start shifting to the developement of decentralized applications, Ether would create a demand and so does the price will rise.

There was nothing like ICOs in 2013. Just shady security investments, mining rig pre-orders, and altcoins. All of which people bought in spades.

I assume some new get-rich-quick token schemes will be cooked up but it doesn't matter either way. The whole crypto market will pump regardless.

i'm pretty sure they're gonna do what they always do---bubble as well. in 2017 i watched 2014's deadest coins rise from the ashes. there was no fundamental reason for that except that people were desperate to put their money into something, especially if it hadn't pumped yet. because even the shittiest of shit was getting pumped.

i can't imagine that mentality is gonna change the next time bitcoin bubbles. it's always the same thing......."bitcoin is too expensive, i'm gonna buy the next bitcoin".

as long as the bitcoin market itself is propped mostly by speculative value, i think this will continue.

The only ongoing real world ish use case are the various stablecoins that run on it. I don't know how well they run on it, or what's in it for ETH's value.

If there is to be a bubble I'm really interested to see what alts do. Soon enough stuff like LTC will be a decade old and still have virtually nothing to show for itself. XRP, or at least the idea of it, is getting on for 15 years old and is still one 'announcement' away from actual use, and it's never XRP itself anyway.

Can empty promise be strung out for that long? When dollars are in the air anything is still possible.

I agree with this, so does Ethereum have anything else to offer anybody in the real world cares about? what's going to stop it tanking from here?

I believe that the era of the ICO has come to an end. In the form in which it was before - now it is impossible to continue. Now we are all testing the next wave of promotion of projects in the IEO format, but I think this innovation will soon come to an end and something else will take its place. Some other kind and different format of project promotion.

ICO's were one among the many reasons for the newbie investors to jump in the bubble right back in 2017. There was huge FOMO situation prevailing all over the market and in the minds of the newbies. The problem is that, they are not accumulating over a longer time period but rather are trying to accumulate when the prices are too high. The minds of the investors were always the key factor in driving the price to the top when there are really no good news favoring the adoption of btc even more. Long-term investors will never invest huge sum in a period of FOMO but rather wait for the prices to settle a bit.

Right now, an average newbie investor who left the market last year would come back and will start investing in btc considering this would be a period of FOMO. This should probably be the main factor which will capture "the imagination of the average lemming" as you have mentioned.

The fact is that, most of the investors are fed up with the ICO scams and runaways which took place last year. This situation would never allow new investors/old investors to invest in ICOs. Many lost $1000 in crypto scams and those un-interesting ERC20 ICOs which wouldn't serve real purpose at all.

The track record of crypto is being in a bull market when stocks are in a bull market. That's been the context during all of Bitcoin's price history. I'd hate to see what happens to speculative assets like Bitcoin when everything is crashing. Fortunately, I'm pretty confident the stock market isn't going to crash anytime soon after this year's huge V-bottom. On that subject, I agree with this guy and I think he's right that a continued bull market in stocks will benefit Bitcoin: https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1120711897475702786

The global economy will eventually turn south but as usual, people are expecting too much too soon. The next Bitcoin bubble is going to happen before (probably long before) the next major economic downturn sets in. That V-bottom in stocks just bought us a couple years.

I think it must be the escape of the oncoming fiat crisis. The world cannot simply continue to add trillions of dollars in new fiat a year and sticking it into debt that will never be repaid. Also, the stock market is giong to crash. When faced with the alternatives, the track record of crypto, bitcoin in particular looks like a damn good hedge.
I don't know what else the catalyst will be other than real world adoption for real world reasons, I don't think anyone needs to come up with a gimmick like icos do you? The world in general and the US economy in particular are FUCKED.
After all, this is why bitcoin was created in the first place now, wasn't it? It rose from the fallout of the 2008 crisis and beginning of quantitative easing, the biggest scam the earth has seen yet.

Agreed.
Just because ICOs became a big deal in 2017 doesn't mean bull runs need a "hook" to bring people in.

This bull market will be fueled by (as always) people realizing that bitcoin didn't just disappear when they were all told it would all throughout the bear market for over a year. Add to that, as exstasie said, institutional markets finally starting to get in on the game will bring in HUGE amounts of money, players like Bitcoin has never seen before. Maybe add to that the fact that people start seeing banks and tech companies bring out their own cryptocurrencies, giving even more legitimacy to Bitcoin. As well as companies continuing to build out blockchain enterprise solutions, legitimizing blockchain tech in general. Maybe throw in a little bit of the Lightning Network perhaps getting close to being ready to be used by the general population. And of course the halving as always.

adoption! like it always is.
more users, then more price rise then that big price rise creates a lot of hype that everywhere in the media they talk about bitcoin so it attracts even more users and maker being small the price shoots up and enteres a big bubble.


but almost all of the ICOs required ETH to participate in them not bitcoin so how could they be the reason for the bubble?

Opportunity and the law, how? I didn't understand this.
The opportunity to keep staying in the market and not being booted out as a result of so much fake project advitising and scamming innocent people off their money?

The law, how? They never were protected by any rules nor were people's stolen money returned by litigation.

The launch of institutional markets from Fidelity, Bakkt, and others might add some hype to the market. When the atmosphere is bullish enough, I'm sure altcoins and ICOs will have a grand resurgence as well.

I don't think any of the bubbles needed a "hook" really. It's just hype meeting very limited supply. Investors always find something to pump their money into, whether it's BTC, altcoins, ICO tokens, cloud mining, other securities. Most of that money will enter through the Bitcoin market. Just like 2013 and 2017, everything will pump together.

With countries following up hard on their legal framework for their crypto regulation I suspect that some of this countries have the idea of creating their own government-based cryptocurrencies like what Venezuela did. I know that countries that are having extreme prohibitions on cryptocurrencies like China and India have hinted in the past on issuing their own local based cryptocurrency based on their fiat which I think will be a bad turn for them considering what had happen to Venezuela in the past.

User count keeps increasing------> price will follow

All the rest of noises will pump and dump the price at given times...

but ICOs don't even have anything to do with cryptocurrencies or even "crypto vision" or whatever you want to call it. ICO is a trick for fundraising for a "company" (basically some people in their basement) that most of the times don't even have anything to do with cryptocurrencies not to mention that coin (or C in ICO) are not actual cryptocurrencies they are tokens that have no usages.

So how do you and I intend to get new people to share in the crypto vision without first using ICO to encourage them?, because anyone you see that wants to engage themselves in cryptocurrency, wants profit out of it and they don’t care about the usage.

It is not so easy to ordinarily tell people about crypto and win them to the industry, they need more than awareness, they need regulations and government backing before they can even think of considering it, that is why we still need ICOs before we get to the stage of regulation. For SEC producing ICO, I guess it must be scam, the only project I have seen through sec now is STO.

There is big growth to end the year as predicted. With the last bull run of 2017 more price increase happened with most of the ICO that existed during those time period. Somewhere of legitimate growth and rest seems to be followed by the growth of bitcoin. This time there isn't any such kind of hype or expectation with the market.

Probably this time around it's still crowd funding but in the form of IEO.

This time also, the selling pressure is not big because we are coming from a long bearish market, so with the hype, market can rise better compared to 2017.
We will have to see what will happen next, will bitcoin fall back a bit or it will continue?

I don't want to get hype a lot here, I just want to see the average price uptrend considering the possible fall back, so I'm expecting price will end better this year.

what is ICO?
is it anything apart from a big bet that people made on an illusion that has a hyped up topic (blockchain) in its name?

with that simple definition change, you can see how they are not new at all. the same trend has been going on for a long time, people come in and see a lot of advertised altcoins telling them they are the future so they invest their money in them hoping to become millionaires.
whatever effects they have on bitcoin price will remain the same as long as people don't change.

the name keeps changing and their methods become easier, before they had to actually create a standalone blockchain but now they have platforms that do that for them with ICOs.

If there will be another bubble, it's very likely one that's based on institutional capital that will enter the market through one of the many legacy gateways. If we manage to keep the current momentum, Fidelity publicly announces its services are live, Bakkt being approved, there you have the fuel needed to spark a bull run similar to what we saw in 2017.

It would be an interesting development if what we see right now are institutions participating in insider trading knowing that an ETF is due to be approved. This isn't just a regular increase, especially not if we keep rushing further towards $10,000 which isn't out of the question. This pump is mainly Bitcoin and not just the average retail fomo we used to see.

Grayscale's Bitcoin holdings now total ~$1.5 billion. An ETF should be able to suck up twice as much in actual spot supply worth.

I think that bitcoin will be pumped to 100 000$ without any hook and after that it will be released for masses.

It will be STO (Security Token Offering) or "AI coins".
STO - tokens that are not "utility tokens" as others but securities. Owning them makes you "shareholder". You will get weekly/monthly/annually rewards which will be equal to part of company incomes and it will be guarantee due to smart contract... This will be huge.

Ai coins - I think that IA based companies will be next bubble (not only in crypto). It will be as huge as .com bubble. As crypto market is very often compared to start-up market lots of investors will come here to invest in IA start-up seeing how US stocks based on IA are being pumped. And this bubble will be huge since AI (or rather ML - we may never see true AI) is a groundbreaking technology and its impact on the profits of companies is almost impossible to etimate (thous every new price level will be accepted).

Having an ICO is not necessary. We just need to influence new people to get involved with our vision without forcing them.

However, I still see some ICOs in our space and I can also tell that they are more developed compared to the past ICOs.

The only opportunity the past ICOs had is the law. If you have the least knowledge then that is the time you will definitely go down.

I heard about an ICO which is claiming that they are the first ICO that is accepted by the SEC.

I have seen mostly Bitcoiners say the ICO thingy is done and over, but it isn't. As we speak there are still ICOs being initiated, but they just don't get much attention with how dumb money needs to see 500-1000% before they wake up.

Just wait for it, when the worst possible shit coins show these mad gains one after the other and that for months straight, people will be jumping in with their life savings. It's only a matter of time.

IEOs could have taken off massively if it wasn't so difficult to get in and people saw the price tank instantly. Binance knows how to take care of the marketing aspect, but they could have done a much better job with IEOs.

it doesn't. we just need hype. the inflow of capital will be distributed across whatever listings the market has to offer. fundamentals don't matter for shit during strong bull markets. whatever the catalyst is, it's price charts that creates the bullish feedback loop where hype begets hype.

that's why i wouldn't frame 2017 like ICOs were the driver. i don't think they were per se. i think there was very weak supply and excess demand heading into 2017 and the first winklevoss ETF denial triggered a move into alts. there are always such triggers. in every bubble, there is a symbiotic relationship akin to sector rotation in stocks where money flows back and forth between BTC and alts instead of BTC and fiat. ICO upon ICO was launched to suck up that capital, but if not ICOs, we would have seen all that capital flow into other altcoins instead.

What do you think will be the thing that captures the imagination of the average lemming?

Last time around it was ICOs. Now they're toast.

Will it be as simple as greater legitimacy in the form of big operations green lighting crypto trading?

Will there be a new form of ICO piss taking? Many will say the collective has learnt its lesson. We all know that's utter bollocks.

What is your supposition? Does it need one at all?