Topic: What will BTC 'Mean Reversion' be in 2019? My prediction is $1400 USD (Read 304 times)

I this is an exact case then I'll sell my flat to buy Bitcoin. 

Just kidding. But my prediction is a little bit above $2000 since if it happens it completes a %90 correction.

It's just the previous MtGox peak resistance.. other people may have more complex models but that's about it, I think some are just looking to retest that peak again as the ideal entry point, however as you said we are already oversold so any further dips will be very fast and short-lived, so the opportunity to buy on these will be for the very lucky few that catch it with perfect timing, not worth it. $2900 would hit the 87% crash since the Dec 2017 peak, which means it would be the same as MtGox fall from $1300 ish to $150, but some other crashes were around 80% (see pic I posted earlier). Anything after 80% crash is high risk that it starts going up and you keep holding fiat waiting for a perfect entry point that never arrives. So if I was still on fiat, I would be buying already, and buying monthly in case it case it goes lower.

This your analysis is scaring to me and I think many of us here will not pray that bitcoin should fall to $1500. I was even thinking that anything from next year bitcoin should be bullish and those that buy now should be able to hold at profits in some days to come.  I remember those that were waiting for bitcoin to fall to $1000 last year but were out of the game at last.

People are poor, but billionaires are only richer and richer. They will buy Bitcoin. No need to worry. Bitcoin will for sure not stabilize at $1400. It will never stabilize, because USD will be worth less less and less.   When we talk about gold is more possible that Bitcoin stabilize at range of 100-1000 ounces and not 1 ounce.

There are SO many Bitcoin supporters that it is difficult to guess the critical fall of BTC and its price of $1400 or even less. In my opinion, BTC will be growing, but steadily and slowly.

That's what you get sometimes. Pseudo science and half-baked TA, thrown about with some generous undersampling and oversimplification. Sad (?) truth of it all is that I'm actually drawn more to these outlandish numbers than the figures coming out from the expert mill.

I think the shorters are still going to have plenty of field days though. Dangerous long-term and on leverage on non-BTC settled options and all that, but I doubt we're getting much people actually selling Bitcoin other than to buy back at the dip, and really tight stops all the way. Think a lot of bulls jumped the gun, and then we've got to see out the profit taking at 4k before the dust settles. $1400 is just about 7% of ATH though, I'm really not sure anything other than unbridled panic would drag BTC below 10%.

Bitcoin isn't going to magically settle with 1:1 parity with gold, simply because bitcoin at gold's value is tiny, too tiny, and looks too much like an ideal entry point after such a crash, so a ton of money will come in, it would be a flash dip to sub $2k if we see sub $2k at all, then we are going up again and the next ATH cycle begins. But forget about the price staying that low for a long time, there's too few bitcoins out there. There's enough for everyone, it's just a function of price.


We don't know that. Most likely everyone that had to sell already sold, and those that still want to sell will wait for a dead cat bounce, whales aren't indeed morons so they know this price is way too low.

Whales also got rich by holding since 2011, ignoring the million times that they were told to dump because "it was crashing":



So most whales do know about holding.

Also notice that fiat whales don't matter. Real scorecount is BTC, simply because there's infinite fiat and finite BTC, and the features of BTC are desired, so all price suppression of BTC against fiat are only temporary, so any fiat whale that wants to become a BTC whale must buy in bigly as much as they dump when they consider it overvalued, and there's blood on the streets so gambling with lower prices may be a mistake.

Yeah, I don't really see new money comming in in near future. People who sold earlier are buying back now, but that's not enough to change the downward trend. It will start sinking again soon, I'm afraid.

If this type of thing happens, it must happen from outside and not because of trading charts looking bad. It is not a regular course of movement for bitcoin to see 1400 thousand dollars nor have a mean reversion. In order for such a thing to happen we need to have another attack on the price just like during the hash wars on bitcoin cash.

If something like that happens and a person like Craig keeps on selling their coins in order to do something or another person like mt.gox trustee (basically anyone with enough bitcoin) sells, there is no bottom for that. The number 1400 would make no sense to stop, it could be 2 thousand, it could be 100 dollars. It all depends on how much that person is willing to sell. Craig sold off enough to drop it under 4 thousand dollars but will he be willing to sell until it drops under 2 thousand ? We will have to see. Otherwise it is impossible for bitcoin to drop that much.

what is the $1400 calculation based on? or the $1000 level you cited further down in your post? just a general belief that all gains from the 2017 bull run must be wiped out?

that might be a reasonable assumption, if not for bitcoin's historic trend. i try to trade with the trend, rather than against it. now that we've corrected more than 82% from the ATH, we're reaching levels where it's pretty dangerous to keep shorting.

it seems like it hasn't started yet, they still continue to dump until now. many investors panic and make the price of bitcoin fall faster, besides that many investors feel frustrated with this condition.

Yes, everything sank hard.

 

It is quite possible that a serious uncle with a lot of money (but at the same time very greedy) would like to buy themselves with cheap and leading violas on the cheap before launching Bakkt in early December.

 

It is also interesting to observe such a phenomenon - some altos, which, contrary to custom, sagged weaker than the cue ball.

 

From what I have, this is Ripple, Stellar and, oddly enough, Bitcoin Gold, as well as the old Doge (he really really sagged a lot after rapid growth).

 

On the monthly chart, Stellar is the only coin from the TOP 30, which has so far remained in some good for 30 days.

It's your own thought! I respect the fact that as an individual, you are free to make any assumption. But if you compare bitcoin with the real-world stock market, then it's the most foolish think you will do! Bitcoin in every sense is not anyway comparable to stock market and TA. As you have made an assumption on bitcoin price, my assumption is that, 2019 is going to be a crazy year for bitcoin while majority of the morons will be able to recover their losses!


I would recommend you to read the below post. It will clear your mind and give you a better perspective about whales,

https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/bitcoin-whales-oct

Thanks!

buying bitcoin is always some sort of risk assessment.
for example in this case, on one hand we have a small chance of further drop which is unlikely to happen. on another hand we have an inevitable rise which will happen. it may take a little more because of this drop but it will, and at the very least the upcoming rise will be the correction of this wrong drop. so you won't lose buying here. in other words risks you took are minimal.

Just bought at $3760 and very unlikely to regret it.

If it hit $2000, that will be 2.1 BTC for the 1 BTC planning to buy at the $4200 mark...which would be excellent.

we actually know a lot and can predict a lot of things!
for example in 2011-2014 we knew bitcoin price is going to rise up and you could easily expect 4 digits price in 2017. I personally was expecting at least $2000 until mid 2017 and possibly $3000 by the end of it. but I couldn't factor in the adoption boom. as we get closer it became obvious that $9k-10k is then the real value.
so was the case with $20k, we could easily see it is a bubble. what we couldn't expect was the size of the panic drop afterwards that crashed the price to unrealistic lows at $3.5k!
right now is the same too. we can predict the rise in the future. I'd say by mid 2019 to end we will be back above $15k again. what I can't say is how long they are going to keep on manipulating the price in this range and how the FOMO buy is going to be afterwards.

When most people think that Bitcoin is dead, Bitcoin may appear again at a price we can't imagine. It may be $50,000, maybe $100,000. Who knows？What we need to do now is not to guess wildly, just wait patiently and wait for a while to see what happens in the end.
But at least one thing I am sure is that bitcoin will not die.

I am sure, no one thinks Bitcoin would be 20K in 2011-2014. It has done. Most of us didn't think Bitcoin would drop 3K. And It has done.

Bitcoin always act unpredictable. Bitcoin has acted unpredictable. Someone always says something, it'll fall, it'll rise, it'll be destroyed... Come on you really believe in that? No one knows anything! Some rich man manipulate the market, and they are earning money. If we lucky enough, we earn with them too. If we clever, we keep our profit with us (most of us doesn't).

While it is quite difficult to say what will happen to the price of Bitcoin next year. Now, with almost the same probability, we can say that it will fall to $ 1,400 in its price, or rise to $ 10,000 - 15,000. All these calculations do not work in cryptocurrency. Most likely, such calculations are more like a coincidence. We hope that Bitcoin will grow in value, and then we will see how it will be in reality.

The point is mean-reversion, until BTC stabilizes nobody can do quant math, and figure the risk,

The recent insanity aka "2017 bitcoin bubble' took BTC to the moon, now it falls back to earth, where does the falling stop? Well IMHO at the point of entry where all the fools came in, and that could be as low as $400 USD.

FYI, I would NEVER BUY BTC, I would MINE it, and if your young I would say 'salvage' it by running software that looks for lost-coin, as that is much more profitable than mining. Liken this to a metal detector on the beach, your more likely to find a gold ring on the beach, than a nugget in the mountains. See www.inflection.top, to understand what I mean by "bitcoin detection", finding lost coins.

IMHO Satoshi never intended for BTC to be traded like a cabbage-patch doll, that's zero sum game. If your using BTC to move wealth around the world and get it IN&OUT of the 'matrix' that would be a good short-term use of BTC, but long term BTC is not a safe place to 'park' wealth, unless you mine it, e.g. get it for free.

BITCOIN is a  synthetic asset traded on exchanges for US Dollars.

Its a trade-able asset, of course its trade-ability is very narrow, as only geeks will except BTC.

The money poured into BTC in 2017 came from easy FED QE, and credit-card's, both these feeds have been closed post Dec 2017.

Today there is no source for "GREATER FOOLS" to enter the BTC pigpen.

Most of the whales ( think winkelvoss ) want out, but those that didn't get out at $20k, are well they're screwed

Like all statistical 'time series' the BTC historical prices can be analyzed by "QUANT PROGRAMS", and the future prices can be predicted to statistical certainty's.

All great PONZI's in history, Madoff including, tulip mania, .... et-al the call of the day was always "HODL".

...

The point is that BTC is not going away, its useful; It's now 10 years old, and in time the price will stabilize, and people can with certainty determine its 'risk', for now BUYING BTC is just burning good money.

We really can't 'value' bitcoin, but what we can do is let all the post January 2017 idiots wash-out, and that means bringing price back to $1,000 USD, and then let BTC find its 'sweet spot'

You can't make money by buying bitcoin.

You can't make money by mining bitcoin.

The only thing I can see is a perhaps a Mutual Fund in a place with cheap-hydro selling btc shares, based on cheap mining,

Last year ONE BTC was 20 barrels of oil, that might have been around at the $15k level, so say we're down to 5 barrels of oil now to mine one btc, that's still a lot of energy.

We can't talk about 'limited' because the clones dilute BTC, it's not like GOLD where people would actually BUY fools gold ( alts )

Maybe some new algo, or HW will come along to make BTC mining profitable again?? The thing is if mining ain't profitable, then why run a server or a miner? The entire premise of mining is to process transactions. If servers are only ran to collect a toll-tax, then in theory there goes the entire reason for BTC, e.g. free transfer of funds.

This is why I like the ZEN model, where people are paid in zen for running transaction servers, in time something like this will be needed for BTC.

Sure if the difficulty goes down, the price of energy goes down, but there are so many antminers out there, for now it appears that most bitcoin will only be mined in places with near to free electricity, of course 'true believers' can waste their money and pay a premium to mine, but again this is a fools game.

...

At the end of the day, BTC has ONLY ONE utility, and that is to move money from A to B, in a time of War where you can't carry your wealth for fear of government theft, ...

Billionaires are funding their own separate chains, BCH & BSV
1.  They are selling any btc they still mine and using it to fund their forks.
2.  They also have huge amounts of btc to sell.

The BSV team plans to run this way for months to crush the other bitcoins.
So btc holders are going to be taking it on the chin for the foreseeable future.

No matter, what you think of Wright, his goal is to make Wu bleed money,
and constant selling of bitcoin to fund his operations in addition to making Wu spend more to support bch is a way to accomplish it.

Your $1400 prediction for btc is a definite and real possibility.

 


FYI:
Anyone buying btc above $2000 now is going to regret it within 3 months.  

$6000-$7000. We're in a desperation selloff right now that represents investor capitulation at the end of a bear market. This is when big players start BUYING.

bitcoin is not stock market.

wrong, it was because of a huge increase interest towards bitcoin in 2017 which led to money pouring in. and like always when the adoption/demand increases in a small market with thin orderbooks the price shoots up.

if we are coming up with random numbers i say price is going to be $200000 about the same as a Lamborghinis so that it can settle in parity with it.

then don't be a moron and start by selling yourself

In stock market the typical 'quant' method to make money is mean-reversion, you study all stocks and calculate their trending-average, then using lin-alg, you can get eigen-values and predict stocks that are out-of-whack, high(SELL) or low(BUY), and when (time-factor) they will revert to their mean.

Now of course artificially in 2017 BTC was to the moon because of the FED ( free fiat to infinity post 2007 ) & credit-card ( banks let morons go wild - 22% debt to lose 90% wealth )  purchase of BTC, both those windows are now closed. Thus BTC will now drift lower and find its mean.

My prediction calculation is $1400 USD, about the same as an ounce of GOLD. Which would be fine with me if BTC just settled in parity with GOLD.

What you say here? Have an opinion?

I see no possible 'moon shot' on the horizon, we're looking at a down market, people are cash-poor, deep in debt and shit is going down all over the world, thus there is no new source of funds to flow to BTC.

The whales are NOT done unloading, the whales are NOT idiots, HODL is for morons, billionaires ( whales ) didn't get rich by being morons.

Post Dec 2017, futures trading became possible with BTC, so whales could 'buy insurance' when they sold tons of BTC, so the question is are they done selling?? I don't think so, I think everybody is waiting to get past the new year.

BTC had settled to $6500 zone, now its on the $3500 zone, soon $1700 zone, I think it will bounce between $1000 & $1500 for a long time, all the post January 2017 gains will have gotten wiped out.

THis is no problem folks, had you owned gold in 1978-1982 you would have also 'lost' 90% of your money, but had you sold high, and bought back in low, you would have also 4X your gold holdings.