Topic: What will Fed take tomorrow? (Read 316 times)

I agree with you that the US government will find a way to lower the value of the dollar once inflation is kept below a stable level, then everything will return to normal and the investment trend will return. But what is the basis for you to think that in just a few months, everything will be back to normal soon, inflation is still high and the Fed has announced that it will continue to raise interest rates into 2023, plus the war situation has not cooled down, how will inflation decrease? I think we'll need more than a couple of months to fix all of this, I predict maybe 2024 or early 2025.

So, a full trading day was over and it was rather uneventful, every single move was already priced in, and not even the full speech about the future possibilities dint triggered anything but rumors that dies down pretty fast.

If there will be a rally most likely the first possible date for it will be Nov 10, that's when the inflation data is released, if inflation growth has cooled off or we see things better than expected this will mean no more aggressive rate hikes and probably straight to 25k at least, a few good months and we will revert all the loss when this shit started back in April.


One day, but it's nowhere near.
Just the fact that we're still down 50% since spring despite inflation it's a clear thing that it's not fiat currently that is losing value the worse.
If those months have attached us a less is that you simply can't think of an asset commodity or whatever investment to go x10 in value in difficult economic times, for one to gain value you need money and there is not that much on the side for investment currently.

The psychology behind trading is that Bitcoin would have the moments it appreciates, the same goes for the USD. This calls for caution in view of this trading competition, many had iterated that the USD would have a worse year in 2022 against Bitcoin, but you see what is happening. I'm still in favour of the strong USD, only that Bitcoin has the backing of some ardent buyers too. So, if it falls, the falling would never be much, and I don't think it would appreciate against the USD significantly in the remaining weeks of 2022 either. Except that 2024 is a crucial bull run for it.

People who buy earlier compared to people who buy now there is a clear difference.
Remember when the FED raised interest rates by 0.75% in July? Bitcoin price strengthened as the news emerged ahead of the conference.
Choosing to buy before the Bitcoin price crosses $21k is a good form of decision making.

No matter how strong macroeconomic factors influence market conditions, it will not change the value of Bitcoin.

As long as the heart and confidence of each other to continue to make purchases before hearing the decision from the FED. I don't think there is anything wrong with this, either for people who buy directly without listening to anyone's decision, including the FED, as well as for those who are still afraid to buy and believe more in what the FED will say.

Because it is part of the decision on each individual as to what they want to buy at this time and I think your advice is also not wrong if you want to buy without having to wait for a decision from anyone.

Answer to last question is obvious, it will %100 lose its value. Overvalued United States Dollar is not gonna be beneficial in long run for a country like USA with huge debt. When they feel they safely combatted inflation out, they will start to weaken Dollar to make it more competitive. People will start to spend less but invest more. And Bitcoin will start its domination at that point. But we are not there yet. Just bit more months to come.

Yes, buying bitcoin, for now, may be a good decision but don't buy it all-in right away because we don't know if the bitcoin price will plunge deeper than now or can stay at the current price. Maybe we need to test the price of bitcoin by buying it in small quantities and continuously monitoring it to know what will happen next. Don't panic if it turns out that the price of bitcoin drops deeper than now because it is a good time to buy more bitcoins.

Maybe one day, the fiat currency will lose its value but I'm not sure because each government will still try to keep its fiat money and provide full support. Inflation may come sooner than we analyze; before that happens, we must be prepared to take advantage of the existing situation for our benefit.

I think if you are a smart trader you should limit your trading before and after these big events are announced as the price will be very volatile and almost unpredictable. Yesterday's Bitcoin price was like a hunt, up and down, kill long and kill short, almost no one was profitable. And if you're a long-term holder, don't worry too much about the news, buy when you can.


In November we still have a lot of events going on but the most prominent, I think the midterm elections in the US so I don't think there will be too much volatility until then. So I think tomorrow's unemployment index will benefit the market or else will not have any negative effect on the market.

Tomorrow are the employment numbers. And most likely nothing will come of this unless…

We get a very high unemployment rate and then we should rally since this is what JPow said on the conference on Wednesday that he wants a better employment market and not one that is too tight.

We get a very low unemployment rate then we will obviously dump because it means that the fed will have to be more aggressive on his hikes.

However most likely it will be average and nothing will happen.

There is a big difference between a person who just buys and a person who buys with some basis. With the latter, he could maximize his investment, buy at a possibly cheaper price, get a better position, avoid getting liquidated, etc.

I won't criticize OP for asking whether this is the best time to buy or not, or to short or long, or to take a more risky or less risky position, etc. It is always better to be informed. OP is not just buying or into DCA, he's into leverage. There is high risk. So he needs to consider certain circumstances that affect the market.

Whether we like it or not, Bitcoin is affected by macroeconomic decisions and their implications.

I recommend to buy.
Basically when I see and read the OP's post, why wait for the decision to be taken by the FED. The impression is that the price of Bitcoin depends on them when the economy is or will face inflation. Wouldn't one day fiat currency lose its value?

The fed rate hurts btc and all other coins.

I bonds are still high like 6.89%

i bonds were 7.12% nov 2021
i bonds were 9.62% april 2022
i bonds now at 6.89% nov 2022

this means 18 months of really really good rates.

actually 24 months minus a day.
since if you buy some bonds today thats good for six months and you can get the same rate for six months if you buy on march 31.

so basically a coordinated attack on btc and other coins is being effectively done and even if the fed backs off after 50+50 moves up to feb 2 the i bond numbers stay high until six months after march 31

let me check exact i bond rates.

note i corrected rates.

so 7.12 and 9.62 and 6.89 are stellar why buy anything other than these bonds.

btw 330 million usa citizens can buy 10000 each so 3.3 trillion available each year.

actually there is a trick to get 15000 each so 4.95 trillion can be purchased every year.

I submit that crypto is seeing a flight to these bonds.

That's 75 basis points and possibly dump, little ones though. If we take a look at the price of Bitcoin, the interest rate hike has possibly taken effect already. From around $20,700, Bitcoin's price has quickly fallen to just around $20,000 following the news. The same goes with US stocks. They've also closed down with negative figures. Despite the correction however it seems the hike didn't bring much effect to Bitcoin considering that it is still well within its stable range. It has been moving within this price range for many months already.

This is just how I look at it. Don't bet on this with your cash.

This fed statement wasn’t about the 75bps hike. We all knew he would hike 75bps, it was listening to hints if they would slow down the hikes and pivot. Which wasn’t the case.

Many had rumors that the fed was crashing the bond markets and would have to pivot. Since it happened in other G7 countries. So many were sure they would say they are hiking less next month, but it’s not the case and hence why stocks took a dump.

I guess we got the answer now, it's 75 points.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-hits-20-8k-as-volatility-ensues-over-fed-75-point-rate-hike

And obviously, it point a dent on the market price, hitting $20,100 right now and it seems that this might continue throughout the week and nosedive around high of $18k to lows to $19k.

Hopefully though, those who see this as positive thing is going to buy at this current price or wait till it plunges again. So it is still a win-win for us regardless of what the Fed rate hike is.

The last time I followed the FED resolution because I read a documentary about how the market will behave if FED moves above 75 or below. After following, FED made decision that we supposed was in favour of bitcoin. From that time till now what has really happened positively about bitcoin? They want us to follow again this time around. I will not waste my time again. The only important thing to me is the bitcoin halving and not all the FED bla blah

Well Biden will veto everything in 2023 and 2024

but come Jan 2025 things will explode under trump or whomever the republicans get in.

I don't think we need to think about what the FED will take tomorrow because it's none of our business.
What we should pay attention to is if something happens to bitcoin and it means the price could drop even deeper, we have to buy it fast before things change.
I think it will be difficult to make short or long trades because I feel that the bitcoin movement will become more difficult.
I suggest you buy bitcoin, hold it, and don't care if the price goes up and down, and only buy when it goes down deep.

The market has started calculating a quotation at 75 basis points, if that happens, the prices will start increasing, if the rate of increase is more than 75 basis points, there will be a big correction and vice versa.

What matters is not the rate of increase, but impressions. Will the rate be the last, and we will start looking for stable points at 5%, or will the rate of increase be 10%?

I think most people are expecting a 75 bps increase. The Fed does occasionally get accusations of being political so it wouldn’t come as a complete and total surprise if they increased by only 50 bps in order to let the market shoot upward in time to vote in the election. I think anything less than 75bps would signal a reversal from the Fed that the market would cheer.

Buy. I recommend Bitcoin to you. Let the FED take and make decisions today, but our best decision is to buy Bitcoins for future investments.
Buying Bitcoin can secure our cash when the world is experiencing economic turmoil.

You can read the two posts pinned on this economics board as important messages.

• Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply
• [CHART] Bitcoin Inflation vs. Time

There are a lot of rumors that they will increase it but why the price of the U.S. dollar is decreasing somehow? Maybe just a correct before another leg up?
And also consider that most of bonds are dumping and stocks and crypto are pumping, so I believe there's something to do about the decision of the FED about increasing/decreasing the interest rate.

Tomorrow the fed will for sure raise by 75bps. But that isn’t the point.

We are all waiting for their plan with future rate hikes in the year and early next year. If that dot plot is more dovish then we will rally.

If we get 50bps tomorrow then we will rally like crazy and most likely bottomed.

Don't rely on FED only to make your investment decision. The news from fed will only cause increase volatility because investors are trying to rush in to grab what they can and get out spontaneously and this will see the market settle down to the reality. You can only aim for pump gains but not the real longtime investment. You know the inflation so far is important to consider as it is a driving force to market price. Demand of crude and supply quantity from OPEC is another consideration and the year is running out different countries will make budget and their financial planning.

From here we're on different paths.
The FED will never give up on inflation and inflation can't continue like this, not with these causes which are mainly energy costs and slow rebuilding of logistic and manufacturing chains.
It's not a complete meltdown like Zimbabwe or Venezuela and this will either start to be contained as more and more industries resume complete operations and energy prices are going down alongside demand destruction. If there is no demand there won't be inflation either,  that's why contrary to some alarmists we don't have the barrel of oil at $300 and OPEC is cutting production after production capacity to keep it above $80.


This is just impossible.
Inflation happened because there was a lot of money and there was no production, if you think instead of having one job people will have 3 then you will have a ton of manufacturing and services, as these jobs have to produce something, which will mean more offer and with people tightening their pouch you will have exactly the opposite, deflation, what you picture here is exactly what's been happening in Japan for a decade, there won't be any trace of inflation in this scenario.

Once they give up fighting inflation, the investors may surely be looking for assets to hedge the value of their assets like BTC. However, if the FED still raises interest which is very likely what Pal wants, we're gonna see stocks diving again and perhaps BTC too.

And then continue where we left off that people will all be going to tighten belts, maybe eat just twice a day and find 3 jobs to make ends meet.

I see a completely different trend now, every crypto outlet has shifted 180° from the previous months and is claiming a rate increase equal to the predictions or of course, lower will trigger a price jump for Bitcoin. It's a bit weird, every hike in the rate has triggered a drop in the price, and although it has recovered after each it was never a course for a bull run, furthermore, I think the enthusiasm from a slowdown of interventions is already priced in, the last jump happened exactly because of this.

I would be completely cautious in that hourly interval, If I would manage to get a trend right from the start I would take the profit and watch the next hour from the side, if it turns ugly and we do some -2k swings each way it will screw a lot of guys doing leverage. But, just to make it popcorn material, I would love to see the FED postponing the decision in the last minute, the chaos on the markets where everyone was putting their bets and now they are left clueless, reminds me of the RTW intro quotes:

I'm 99% inclined to think the same, but history has a habit of not repeating itself just when you're overconfident, and Bitcoin price also has this habit of doing some inexplicable movements, so neither a drop back below 20k nor a jump to 25k would surprise me genuinely.

Don't be desperate in trading the Federal Funds Rate tomorrow, the high inflation that is responsible for the huge rake hike this year has been actively priced-in already, therefore expected reaction might backfire. Furthermore, FED has ever made known its position of increasing the interest rate to 4.6%, so what we are seeing is not surprising anymore. However, economists expect the apex bank to raise the rate from 3.25% to 4.00% on Wednesday, which is 75 basis points.

I hope this has answered your question, but be careful with what you want to do this time because the rake hike is highly expected, so it might trigger an aftermath negative reaction for the USD.

Whichever it is as long as they raise, there will be a dump. But they may actually pivot because they need to win the midterm election so that's something they'll have to consider or suffer the loss. If the Dems lose, the Reps will probably undo the policies they have decided and we'll have a big run. Anyway, this is just what I have read on the politics channel so we'll see what happens.

If you got the cash; then do the research.
There are tons on information out there on inflation and the investment qualities of Bitcoin, sift through that and make your decision to invest.

What will Fed take tomorrow?
We are confident that Fed will keep raising interest rates at this time, but by how much? What if it goes up by 50 points? What if it goes up by 75 points? Pump or Dump?
Give me a good cause to make a big short (long) trade, I'm ready with cash 

Peace!!!