What will happen once BFL SC hits the market?

bitarrow

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Quote from: smoothie on August 14, 2012, 06:00:46 PM

Quote from: dree12 on August 14, 2012, 05:42:20 PM

Quote from: kllr123 on August 14, 2012, 05:36:44 PM

Hi, Just out of curiosity I want to know if anyone can give a rough speculation of what will happen when the Butterflylabs new miners hit the market.

At my last count at this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0;topicseen
the total hashing power added to the network by ONLY the people there will be roughly 22662 GH/s. What effect will this have on Bitcoin etc. I assume the difficulty will go up like mad but what will happen to the price of bitcoin? My assumtion is that it will plummet to the ground as supply wil drastically increase. Another question is, will the 50 -> 25BTC happen sooner aswell now?

Supply increase will be counteracted by the former miners who will need to buy BTC instead of mining it. The huge amount of GPUs to be dumped for BTC will also boost the price.

This assumes miners dont mine to sell...but to mine...just mine.

EXACTLY my plan. I mine to hoard Wink

jwzguy

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I will get some solid sleep for the first time in 17 months.

smoothie

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Quote from: dree12 on August 14, 2012, 05:42:20 PM

Quote from: kllr123 on August 14, 2012, 05:36:44 PM

Hi, Just out of curiosity I want to know if anyone can give a rough speculation of what will happen when the Butterflylabs new miners hit the market.

At my last count at this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0;topicseen
the total hashing power added to the network by ONLY the people there will be roughly 22662 GH/s. What effect will this have on Bitcoin etc. I assume the difficulty will go up like mad but what will happen to the price of bitcoin? My assumtion is that it will plummet to the ground as supply wil drastically increase. Another question is, will the 50 -> 25BTC happen sooner aswell now?

Supply increase will be counteracted by the former miners who will need to buy BTC instead of mining it. The huge amount of GPUs to be dumped for BTC will also boost the price.

This assumes miners dont mine to sell...but to mine...just mine.

CoinLab

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1CoinLabF5Avpp5kor41ngn7prTFMMHFVc

Here's a graph of the historical dollar value of a GH/s for 24 hrs:

Note - in the early days, there wasn't even a gigahash on the whole network combined.

The introduction of GPU mining software caused a plummet in the dollar value of hashing as network difficultly spiked rapidly.

At CoinLab, we believe there is going to be a similar crash in gigahash dollar value with the introduction of ASICs. It will probably be smaller, because ASICs are harder to obtain and less versatile than GPUs, but we think a drop to 1/10th of current dollar value is likely in the next year.

We're launching a pool to keep miners' GPUs possible as they come off the Bitcoin network:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ann-coinlab-protected-pool-99643

We think ASICs are going to lead to GPU miners folding proteins and doing other computations for Bitcoins with us. We will have to buy the Bitcoins we deliver to miners using the funds our HPC customers pay us, so this could end up being a sizable inflow of money into the Bitcoin economy.

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: kllr123 on August 14, 2012, 05:36:44 PM

My assumtion is that it will plummet to the ground as supply wil drastically increase.

Bitcoin mining doesn't work like that. The increased hashing will, in the very short term, speed up the generation of bitcoins but only until the next 2,016 block difficulty adjustment occurs. Then difficulty is calibrated right back so that the target of 144 blocks per day is regained. At 50 BTC per block, that is 7,200 BTC per day.

So if BFL were to ship a huge amount of capacity all at once then for a few days or for a week even production could spike to maybe twice normal, but then it goes right back to one block every ten minutes.

The only influence on the price will probably be from those mining operators (and potential mining operators) that had held off waiting to see that there really will be a BFL ASIC produced. If these do start shipping, then those people will be scrambling, using their accumulated bitcoins to place orders with BFL. BFL then converts those bitcoins to dollars, so there could be a flooding of hundreds of thousands of previously saved-up bitcoins reaching market after being used to purchase ASIC hardware.

dree12

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Quote from: kllr123 on August 14, 2012, 05:46:49 PM

Ok makes sense. So what you are saying is it wont really have a big negative or positive effect? Will remain fairly constant?

Exactly. What happens in mining doesn't affect the price all that much.

kllr123

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Ok makes sense. So what you are saying is it wont really have a big negative or positive effect? Will remain fairly constant?

dree12

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Quote from: kllr123 on August 14, 2012, 05:36:44 PM

Hi, Just out of curiosity I want to know if anyone can give a rough speculation of what will happen when the Butterflylabs new miners hit the market.

At my last count at this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0;topicseen
the total hashing power added to the network by ONLY the people there will be roughly 22662 GH/s. What effect will this have on Bitcoin etc. I assume the difficulty will go up like mad but what will happen to the price of bitcoin? My assumtion is that it will plummet to the ground as supply wil drastically increase. Another question is, will the 50 -> 25BTC happen sooner aswell now?

Supply increase will be counteracted by the former miners who will need to buy BTC instead of mining it. The huge amount of GPUs to be dumped for BTC will also boost the price.

kllr123

newbie

Activity: 51

Merit: 0

Hi, Just out of curiosity I want to know if anyone can give a rough speculation of what will happen when the Butterflylabs new miners hit the market.

At my last count at this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0;topicseen
the total hashing power added to the network by ONLY the people there will be roughly 22662 GH/s. What effect will this have on Bitcoin etc. I assume the difficulty will go up like mad but what will happen to the price of bitcoin? My assumtion is that it will plummet to the ground as supply wil drastically increase. Another question is, will the 50 -> 25BTC happen sooner aswell now?

Topic: What will happen once BFL SC hits the market? (Read 1396 times)