Topic: What would a US recession do to the price of Bitcoin? (Read 345 times)

I didn't know that Buffett was accumulating dollars, I think the most convenient thing for his way of thinking is to buy gold, but if he is doing it, that is another thing, He believes that perhaps due to Trump's mandate the dollar will take on a great value. As for bitcoin, I don't think the effect has been negated. Bitcoin does not obey the economic rules of an economy based on the lie of a backing , so I don't think it will fall apart, on the contrary, it will take on much more valueThis year I hope that bitcoin reaches $100k,  I hope that in the 4-year cycle it can reach its highest price It is difficult for it to go down much, if it goes down in price at all.

If this is not the right time to buy bitcoin, I wonder for those who have never been in the market and are thinking about investing in bitcoin, when is the right time for them?

Many people make the mistake of investing, they only look at price and ignore factors like supply, capitalization and use case...But in my opinion we should do a comprehensive assessment to know the real potential of bitcoin instead of just looking at its price and saying it is too high to invest.

Bitcoin ETFs are still buying billions of dollars every day while retail investors like us are scared, which is baffling. Not to mention that as far as I know, less than 10% of the world's population knows about and invests in bitcoin, all of which shows that investing in bitcoin at this point is even considered early.

This move has sparked concerns that Bitcoin price may take hit as millions of investors face job losses or uncertainty and leading them to liquidate their crypto holdings. Reasoning is simple when people are struggling financially they tend to sell off their riskier assets like cryptocurrencies to cover their living expenses. However there is another side to this story. Investing in digital currencies during tough times can actually be beneficial. It is worth noting that Buffett strategy is focused on long term growth other than short term gains. His thinking to look on building cash reserves which can provide a safety net during economic uncertainty.

Totally agree: the US economy right now is very strong and all of the indicators are very, very good. Hence Bitcoin, cryptos, and the stock market are all doing great.

Today Bitcoin and cryptos generally are mainstream investments driven by average US retail investors. Bitcoin has never weather a US economic storm in this context. I don't think you could compare, for instance, a time when Bitcoin's market cap was <$1B and held by a few thousand early adopters.

Just look at how the Fed and American banks are in making decisions. The interest rate cut by the FED is good news. This condition indicates that there is an improvement in economic conditions in America. The problem of inflation, employment, has improved so that the Fed dares to take the decision to cut interest rates. In that period I saw a very good response to the Crypto market, especially Bitcoin. Bitcoin has experienced a significant price increase. So I think America and its economic state they have a big impact where crypto will go.

IMO

There's more and more evidence--to the point that it's overwhelming now--that consumers simply don't care about "decentralized". Indeed, I suspect most Bitcoin owners these days don't even have the first clue as to what that word even means.

To most Bitcoin buyers today, Bitcoin is this thing you buy on some app, or a security you buy in your brokerage account. There's nothing even remotely "decentralized" about this.

And pretty much only core Bitcoin today is actually decentralized. Most of the rest of the marketplace are centralized blockchain coins like ETH or XRP--and consumers clearly don't care.

And Elon Musk pushes DOGE, not Bitcoin; Trump pushes Trump's coin, not Bitcoin.

The protocols will still exist in a way even if they are not in their original form. Evolution will surely take place.

There is nothing that is exceptional to replacement or innovation and Bitcoin is not.  It takes one mind to sit down and a create a new standard, one that will prefect the protocol or replace the existing as a new technology.

No doubt that IRC does exist. In skype, HexChat, IceChat, Pidgin and Smuxi you can add IRC software in windows and have an anonymous chat.

Those who say the Bitcoin protocol doesn't exist they should also think about decentralized. In as much as there are influence by devs in the Bitcoin core and influences from top men (US president, social influencers like Elon Musk) there is still a limit to how they can influence the technology.

I have to disagree I believe there's no wrong time to buy, the people buying mightn't have had, spare cash when the price was low but only got some cash presently. There are those that are only now getting convinced about the potential of Bitcoin so they're buying. Some are investing for the future as they plan to buy and hodl for as long as they can, neither of this people are making a mistake buying Bitcoin presently. The only mistake that they can make is when they sell too early because of the market falling and they get scared.

The president elect Donald Trump also made many people to hear about Bitcoin and this might be their first time getting to know about it since it was mentioned and trending during the campaign period. We shouldn't discourage them from buying saying we're at the top, the market can rise further for this bull season and will increase more in years to come.

In the long term the price difference between now and a month ago will be a rounding error.

The thing with Bitcoin is that it is unstoppable. Companies will come and go, but Bitcoin will continue to exist.

Think about email. It is still relevant because there is no company attached to it. All the other platforms will cease to exist eventually.

Think about IRC, it still exist, even though there are multiple companies trying to do chat.

All these are protocols, so they will continue to exist far beyond what any company can survive.

Nothing is certain when it comes to the future, mate. I appreciate Trump in boosting the economy because he is a businessman, he knows how to boost and develop the economy. But it will all depend on the health of the economy when he takes over, if the economy is in a bad phase or on the brink of recession then he will hardly be able to restore the economy quickly. Not to mention, he is not the only one deciding the fate of the US economy, the Fed is also a very important factor and you need to remember that they do not follow the orders of the president.


We are bitcoin investors so we are definitely biased towards it, but let's be realistic, it is still a highly volatile investment so it would be at a disadvantage if a recession were to occur.

It definitely wouldn’t be a good thing in general but in the foreseeable future, especially with Trump going into office I think it’s safe to say that the US won’t be going into a recession. And even when we do I feel like bitcoin would be the last thing folks let go of easily.

Deep state is likely moving a lot of cash off shore

They printed so much now they are stealing it.

Once Trump and Elon take control it will be lights out

For the old guard of scammers, they ain't getting the House or

Senate back for probably atleast 8 years, could be 20

Price will likely fall back long term, all depends on how

Much Debt the US keeps accuring and the timing of the Ponzi

Real Estate market and Stock Market Collapse

Very well the best time to sell your bitcoin is at an all-time high, and the worst time to buy bitcoin is at an all-time high, when it comes to bitcoin, we. all need to put some smart skills at work in other to remain at profits, this is a very important lesson that any bitcoin investors should have, since bitcoin is valued with it dollar rate, is very important to know how to apply the various bitcoin Dollar 💰 value and applying that to both your buy and sell price.


Buying Bitcoin at an all-time = high losses/waiting for an unpredictable time

Selling bitcoin at an all-time high = profits for those who bought bitcoin at a lower price.

In reality, buying bitcoin at this point will depend on the individual because not everyone has the opportunity to enter the market as early as we do. Many people have only heard about bitcoin in the last few weeks, how can they buy bitcoin from a month or more ago? If they don't buy now, when is the right time to buy and what guarantees that the price of bitcoin will drop to $70k or $50k for them to buy? At current prices, this is not a perfect time to buy bitcoin for old investors but for newbies, it is completely different. So, it depends on each person's decision.

But I also won't give investment advice to anyone at this point but I won't stop them if they want to invest.

Honestly, now is the wrong time to buy Bitcoin. Anyone who is buying now should've bought a month ago.

Although, if you are looking to sell off some of your holdings to get some cash, now is a good time. I just sold about $500 worth of BTC. Zero regrets whatsoever. (And I still have a huge stash.)

It's not a speculation anymore though, US has been experiencing recession for a couple of years now and in that duration we saw that it creates sell pressure on bitcoin preventing its rise. But that was not just US in recession, but most of the world was also in recession which meant the sell pressure was global and it caused the drops which is why bitcoin is still below $100k after all this time.

In the future, more recession which they only would battle by increasing interest rates in the US, would similarly cause sell pressure and can affect the bull run.

The only two other things to consider are:
1) Will it be global? In your arguments, the recession is in US only and as long as it remains that way the impact on bitcoin is not going to be as big as it was before.
2) Will there be inflation as well? All the deportation (firing bulk of US workforce) and the tariff war would create much higher inflation compared to the past couple of years in the US. We already know inflation positively affects bitcoin by increasing its price.

On top of that we have dedollarisation going on and with Trump and his wars against their world (specially now that we have seen some of his cabinet members who are the biggest warmongers in America) we can be sure that dedollarisation will speed up which can lead to US dollar tanking hard.
Obviously that means bitcoin price shooting up automatically.

Warren is fearful when others are greedy, and he is greedy when others are fearful. Simple as that.

Warren's just following his old philosophy when many are still euphoric after Trump's winner in US election, then he took advantage to sell his asset at peak.

As for the recession impact to the Bitcoin, the recession will cause bitcoin's price to slip. It's obvious. I meant, during a recession, people will do anything for money. The best way is to sell bitcoin, their most liquid asset. It took a few seconds to exchange your bitcoin to cash.

He is often right, but whatever he chooses to do is his choice. It was said he had already cashed out his stock holdings, but I don't think he has piles of cash at home or in his home vault. For someone who has been making money in trading, I think he already is into Bitcoin he can't just make it public.

A rich guy like him would probably fly somewhere else if the recession comes, maybe he would turn his money to gold or invest in China stocks.

In my opinion, you have formulated a very important question. It is very difficult to give a clear answer to this question.

If the US recession is in 2025, when exactly will it start? In the middle of the year? Somewhere in May 2025? What will the price of Bitcoin be at that time? There are still six months until May 2025. During this time, the price of Bitcoin can double. From these levels, there can theoretically be a correction. At the same time, we cannot clearly answer whether a recession in the US will lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin or to its fall. A recession in the US will definitely lead to a fall in oil prices and an economic catastrophe in countries such as Russia and other peripheral countries. The US will most likely suffer less than others. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin, as a rule, has an inverse correlation with the price of oil.

Therefore, in the medium term, it may even grow (although short-term panic falls in the price of the first cryptocurrency are also possible).

The opposite might happen seeing Bitcoin as their source of income.  People losing jobs may redirect them to trading, and get more engaged with Bitcoin activities.  Rich people might find Bitcoin as safe haven for their declining US dollar purchasing power and might put their funds into Bitcoin just to preserve their wealth.

Since the dollar purchasing power is declining, Bitcoin price might reach its new height since it will become more expensive as the dollars weaken.

Well, that’s how Warren Buffet point of view about having US recession and for me, everyone’s point of view is reasonable. But I believe seeing bitcoin’s high volatility, one thing is certain, bitcoin will definitely undergo price fluctuations based on its macroeconomic conditions or let’s say even the condition of the asset itself. It could go on an upward or downward position, but rest assured the effect will only be temporary.

Am happy Trump won to begin with and if it is going to affect the prices of things or cause a recession, it remains to be seen. The Russia- Ukraine war and the Israel -Hamas war ceased upon his winning and that's a good sign that shows that the economy may get better with time.
There's of course a bull run for cryptocurrencies because Trump's son also has a coin he is to launch with the support of his repentant father who now has renewed hope for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.

As far as I know, Trump never claimed that he will get rid off immigrants, and instead illegal immigrants and there's a huge difference between those two.


Never heard that one, but big difference between Europe and US is that if for example you are born in Europe by illegal immigrant parents, you don't automatically get citizenship (many never get it), while in US you will automatically get it once you are born there.

If Trump choose to deport immigrants, America is no longer America that people know.

I've heard something like this, if non Europe live in Europe, you're an immigrant, but if non American live in America, you're an American.

The crisis happened in 2007-2009 and 2019-2020, in early days, there's no way to know if US recession affect Bitcoin price, but in 2019-2020, corona virus did affect Bitcoin price, but it was happened not in bull run season, if covid happened in 2021, we can draw the conclusion.

It will only help your pay rate if you work in very specific industries, doing very specific things, like lower-end construction workers. Construction companies, as a whole, will do much worse since they will have to drastically raise prices, which will reduce demand, meaning they will sell fewer new homes.

And fewer new homes means less sales of all kind of other goods that come with new home formation, etc. etc.

And immigrant labor in the US also deeply affects the food industry, so grocery store prices will rise, and the hospitality industry, so restaurants and hotels will rise in price, which will affect the travel industry.

In the longer run, the US will be a less friendly place to do business since our labor costs will be much higher.

In short, like any government protectionism movement, this will be a positive thing for a small number of workers for a short period of time, but it will hurt everybody else immediately and weaken our economy in the long run.


Um, the whales will get out long before ordinary people do  . Unlike ordinary people, they have a staff of economists to help them time the market.

For an average American citizen, massive deportations will be good in terms that they'll have higher pay rate, better working conditions and more available jobs because migrants work like slaves but at the same time, there is a high chance that their deportation will increase the price on everything, so maybe the life of an average American citizen won't change for better but it's debatable.

That's true, if millions of people lose their jobs, they'll be forced to sell their Bitcoin and altcoins because they need to eat something and if they don't have cash, then they need to convert their assets. Btw during bull run, even if you lose job, it's still hard to sell coins when you see how your asset's value increases. I think that whales will play a major role in Bitcoin's price again because from my understanding, average person would live a poor style instead of selling an asset that they see how it grows every day.

Buffett's stock sales this year, including huge sales of Apple and Bank of America, would appear more related to caution and grasping future opportunities rather than outright panic. Currently, he has loads of money in his pocket, which he could use when the prices go down during economic turmoil. Some have painted that as a warning sign of recession, but certainly not a promise of recession, it is complicated and associated with a number of factors that influence the markets.

The impact of this recession on Bitcoin could happen in some very odd ways, of course, out of work people may liquidate a portion of their assets, including Bitcoin, which could drive down the price of the cryptocurrency in the coming months. However, Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as a hedge against inflation and a financial meltdown. If there is less confidence in traditional markets, demand for decentralized assets could grow. The relation between crypto and economic downturns isn't directly proportional, instead, it's an idea of safety during turmoil. This is to say that while moves from Buffett and economic shifts will not go unnoticed, Bitcoin might actually be resilient or thrive in the face of global sentiment and adoption trends.

That is the thing, he could be right or wrong, we will never know what is going to happen, so he is betting on himself, so be it.


We have seen it all, and yet Bitcoin holds it's own against this recession buy having it's bull run no matter what.


Just suck it in, right now we are in the bull run, till next year. But after that, in 2026, Bitcoin will have to rest and start all over again, meaning we will be in the bear market. So the price is going down, very hard, so most likely there will be investors who will shift to stocks and any other assets.

But it doesn't mean that it will cause the downfall of the US economic other Trump, that's how Bitcoin works, we have a 4 year cycle.

Bitcoin has potential and can be used as a store of value but I don't see it reaching that stage yet . I mean, with the current volatility , it's still not a perfect store of value and if we accept the reality , most people are just using it as a speculative asset.

Remember the 2022 inflation period 1 year ago ? Bitcoin dumped when inflation peaked , showing it's not the store of value we once thought it was.
Bitcoin is only used as an investment these days so a recession won't be good for it, I think bitcoin will get dumped if recession happens.

The opposite could also happen if the new US administration turns it into a national reserve, but as we all know ,  Trump's idea is not easy to implement.

Not exactly true... He's doing some restructuring and could be piling cash to make a major investment. He sold some Apple and bought Domino's and Pool (whatever that is).


All of the selling happened before the election. He's taking some massive profits, which is what good investors do. And yeah, the S&P looks crazy overvalued after a giant multi-year run-up.


Well, that is the question, and the answer is nobody knows for sure because Bitcoin has only existed in a bull market (minus the whole covid fiasco which America printed its way out of pretty quickly).


Bitcoin is pretty much a toy for the rich, and Wall Street sees it as having the highest risk of all high risk investments. So in a sudden economic downturn the price would indubitably drop due to its eccentricity as an investment class. However, if economic problems are caused by a devaluing dollar, then we could actually see a "flight to bitcoin".

I don't think that the US economy is really dependent on import. Reducing the import of cheap goods, that are produced in China would most likely lead to inflation rather than recession. The illegal immigrants provide cheap labor, but I also don't think that they are really important for the US economy. I expect a new Bitcoin ATH in the first quarter of 2025, followed by a bear market that will continue for a long time frame. Inflation is good for BTC, recession is bad, but I don't expect any major recession in the USA during the Trump administration.

I don't think Buffet is "anti-Donald" and I doubt he even cares about Trump either way. He is just looking at the markets and making a judgement.


If that's the case, how do you explain the fact that Bitcoin has roughly tracked overall market momentum over the last few years? When stocks go down, Bitcoin goes down. Today stocks are at ATH, as is Bitcoin.



If Bitcoin dropped significantly in the market then El Salvador would be bankrupt, the president would be overthrown, and... I really doubt any other country would ever try something like that ever again .

Trump regime would be a new administration which calls for restructuring of economy infrastructures so at this time we may not be expecting a normalized economy flow not until the tampered system aim is achieved for stability. This shouldn't be a call of Fomo unless Warren Buffett was an anti-Donald Trump then he has to take early concious move to secure his values before he begin to reap what he sow.


If the recession happens then we'll be seeing massive bitcoin adoptors which definitely would lead to increments of bitcoin price
Recall that bitcoin already is potential to store values during an economy downtime as that so I don't see bitcoin diminishing either does it have a potential set back of commodities and economy system.
Imagine a government as El Salvador adopted bitcoin on what important role bitcoin would play to the improvement of their economy when commodities are faded due to economy infrastructures.
So I think governments that would be awaken to adopt bitcoin would be safe if really the recession happens.

Warren Buffett is selling off stocks this year and hoarding USD. Why? He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy. Clearly the majority in the US feels these changes will be good for them. But Mr. Buffett clearly doesn't.

Maybe he's right, or maybe he's wrong. We'll see.

The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?

My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).

Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?