Topic: What would be effect of denial from ETF (Read 1780 times)

I'm with you dude, your thought was definitely happened and it was a good that SEC rejected ETF. And the value of bitcoin was dropped below 1000$ as I expected, but still we don't have to worry about it just keep hold on tight and don't panic.

Yes, consolidation state would really stay on that price mark and those percentage that have been mentioned isn't realistic to consider or to be based since those are low enough if theres a denial.

He's right, those are bullshit numbers no better than throwing darts.  Analysts are so full of shit, it's leaking out onto the street.   Bitcoin will thrive even without this years-long handjob of an ETF.  We've gotten this far without it, right?

Behind the doors talk? Looks interesting to find out the link to read the 'leaked out'.
I know winklevoss and others already tried to asked or discuss about it with someone inside SEC's to convince them, that bitcoin is  promising investment/commodity for investors which the community always trying to solve the security problems, just my thoughts.
If Winklevoss had talked with approval team, so we have to buy more bitcoin now before the bull run insanely after ETF approval.

Edit : have find the link

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5vt1us/coin_etf_and_bats_industry_leaders_met_with_sec/

Thanks for share the article, I understand why winklevoss ETF has just 36% chance to get approval.
Not because the volatile of bitcoin price but security problems : The case for denial of the product rests primarily in the history of security breaches this asset class has suffered, most infamously the Mt. Gox debacle. More recently, hackers helped themselves to about $65 million worth of the virtual currency in August 2016. if SEC disapprove ETF, bitcoin price maybe fall to $800-$900, but who knows? Time will tell us.

I think that acceptance will increase the price by 2-3 hundred dollars, and a rejection will have the same effect to the down side.  either way it is a win for hodlers, it drops we buy more if it goes up we increase are profit,,,,,,result

I want to say my personal opinion regarding the ETF.

I believe many people already buying, as we speak also in case of approval to sell for profit.
Some people also that are few, have inside information and this we don't know if they will buy now or after the decision.
No matter what will happen the point is that Bitcoin have no need of any ETF etc.. in fact i believe the ETF is only trouble for Bitcoin.

Look what we have made all this years? who can possibly believe back in 2012 when Wordpress for example accepted Bitcoin at $11.04 that today would be $1148 (as we speak)..
We do not need ETF. of course will have impact to the price upwards on approval and dumping on denial but soon after will have correction.

What we need for example and will do very good to the image of Bitcoin is clear answer and results on investigation of MtGox and early adopters get theis bitcoins back (including me and i say this from personal experience. doesn't matter the amount but its the result of loosing your BTC that you mined and actually helped to build this network back then...) Imagine how this could have an effect to the price when media will have a story to tell...a story that they found the BTC etc.... and people NOT lost their funds

Enough with this story, what i want to say by that is that we are in need of other things more important from ETF. The only ones that want ETF are the people who not believe on Bitcoin but on the earnings they can have short term...

In any case, 2 weeks to find out the answer...and as i wrote to other thread the weird thing is that they have dead line to post result SATURDAY 11 of March is Saturday .. thinking...

Bitcoin won't crash because of it. Bitcoin survived and prospered until now without this, why would bitcoin die now for it?
The worse result can be the bitcoin price reduced again, but investors won't stop using bitcoins, we are still growing with or without ETF. Spread the bitcoin word everywhere and show the benefits, doing this our community will grow much stronger.

To me whether ETF approves it or not some people and/or exchanges are taking advantages of situation and using it to create hype. Pump the market to higher price and once results comes sell and earn profit if there is negative outcome. This negative outcome will not cause price to drop to $800 though, there will be !$1000 level from which further fluctuation will happen.
If outcome is positive then  simply hold coins for some more time, sell once you manage to get considerable profit. Reinvest the profit and take out seed money or initial investment. With positive investment, there may be new thing happening in bitcoin market.
At some extent I think gradual price rise is expected because bitcoin supply has been halved and demand is increasing.  However sudden movement are somewhat signs of FUD reaction.

 You know what the best thing we can do now, since we cannot predict what will happen on march 11. 2017 it is much better for us to don't expect anything whether it good or bad result to be happen, even if ever a bad result which is denied it doesn't mean bitcoin will crash immediately, perhaps it not the way we expect isn't.

There is quite a lot of hype with the ETF, if it doesn't pass I can see people using that as an opportunity to short, but it will get bought back almost immediately just like how we saw some hours ago, a flash dip that is only visible if you zoom in a lot into the graphic, and thats all, nothing else will happen.

Oh boy you're so wrong in all what you're saying!
Bitcoin's success is not depending on a stupid ETF some big Wall Street investors might want to play with!!!
And I also disagree that the bull run will be over after that.The only thing what is going to happen is a short dump probably down 800 is the worst case scenario with some extremely quick buying which will us bring back to the 1000 mark!
And then we will rise and fall until 1500 hopefully until the end of the year which is my personal conservative prediction if not any stupid hack or some serious technical takes place.

But nice try to spread some FUD!

The SEC decision will come out on 11 March as per my information.
I believe this time around bitcoin will get approval and bitcoin price will reach new height after that.

don't pay any attention to these numbers, they are mostly guesses and wrong. there is no way of measuring these things specially something like this. you either know it is going to be approved or you know it is not. in this case things are black and while 100%.

but in case it is denied, price will fall for a short time, then it will rise even more than before. just like many times before, every negative crap news like this causes a dip then like a spring that is pressed down it will release to a high price.

Your words are  make a non sense for me, Or you must read about the definition of ETF and SEC. It seems like you are lack of knowledge about it. The price of bitcoin will around $1000 and it will never get dump to the $900 and etc.

For me there ain't that big of an effect that will happen if ETF was denied. The current pump might not be because of it since many of the investors would be so smart as to stay away to bitcoin since they don't trust it that much unless ETF will be approved so all in all there will be no dumps that will occur after ETF has been denied if there is well it will not be because of that but because of the opening of Chinese exchanges once more.

A lot of people right now believe that the current price increase is because of the ETF, If that that claim comes out to be correct then we shouldn't expect anything but a huge dump after the ETF disapproval and without forgetting that the Chinese exchange will open withdrawals once again. I don't think we should run to conclusions yet though, even If our chances are low.

Believing in potentially leaked information is not wise, it could be just another rumor created to boost bitcoin's price.
Until ETF approval will be announced publicly then it is better not to keep your hopes high or you can burn.

BTW Where is that 'wall observer thread' you are talking about? I can't find it.

I hope only ETF and SEC can aprove bitcoin
and china regulation china autorized , can good result about investigation china exchanger, if two not good result i think is big affect bitcoin price can crash and big dump and big down price

If etf deny then we will see the price drop down or maybe stuck for a moment, but in the end bitcoin will rise again, so actually the denial only affect the bitcoin for short period of time, but i still hope that it will be approved, it will bring good impact in bitcoin, if its being approved

If Bitcoin survived the previous denials like you're saying then there's no cause for alarm if it doesn't get approved this time around as it wouldn't make any difference and there wouldn't be any Bitcoin crash.

This hype is all about ETF approval.  If ever the ETF is denied, the bitcoin bull charge will become Bull trap.  A sharp decrease in price will be observed.  This is no news.  History had shown that whenever there is a negative news about BTC, price will decline and this ETF if denied is certainly fall under Bad News for Bitcoin Speculators.

They are estimates. Some analysts also estimate the impact that the ETF approval would have on the price and how much of it is factored in the price right now. Then you can back calculate the market's expectation of probability of ETF approval.
$1000 is a very good price, if the ETF is not approved. I feel it might drop a bit more than that.

Well it's inevitable, since bitcoin price surge in the past weeks up to now is all about ETF hype. It will be the deciding factor whether the price of bitcoin will continue to go up or down.

this is what I am thinking too, since the current increase is all about the hype of the upcoming ETF.  Actually, there is no reason for BTC to go up in price since there had been several problem with the transaction confirmation and there is nothing to announce as development of Bitcoin yet.  So if ever the ETF is rejected, the next thing that possibly can happen is the decline of Bitcoin price.

Lol these bullshit numbers of 26% 35% 25% and whatever else are hilarious. They're based on ... what? Random statistics that may not be relevant?

The actual affect if it's declined would be a sharp decline, a correction and we'll stay around the $1000 mark.

I guess the price will  go lower the first day when it's already announce that it's denied .but the hype happened really help the price now,although we are not sure  until when but we are waiting for good news.

Nothing, a minor dip if anything.

The ETF isn't live, therefore it has not significantly impacted the market. There's some anticipation priced in right now but it's not significant.

If the ETF gets denied, take it as a buying opportunity. Bitcoin on discount!

it case it was denied i am sure there will be some dumps, because it has always been like this. we see a small news and the manipulators start their dump to create panic and buy back cheaper coins.

and ETF denial is the best opportunity, and if i can sell in the first couple of minutes then i will sell and if not i will hold because price will jump back up after that and there is no way to come back from selling cheap and left with a higher price to buy back.

You can give me the reliable source about it, I didn't hear IF SEC already approved bitcoin. This time a lot of the investors are buying the rumour about the SEC approval and it seems like the final hype is on 10 march.

It won't be denied.
They have already approved it and that is why the price is going up.
It was all talks with approval team and those Wiklevoss's so to not have a major failure on their hands that could bring major condequences to the American economy.
It is all behind the doors talk but there was a leaked im about it. Just check wall observer thread to see it.
There are too many pages there to go thru to try and find to link to it.
Sorry.

Well at this point I'm more or less expecting a denial of the ETF based on the pure fact of risk for investors based on bitcoins short history. I don't think the ETF denial OR approval will really do much to the price it will just make the volume of trading higher than it is at the moment, more people selling and more people buying will just cause the price to stay where it is.

So, price will stick where it is which will be better for the health of bitcoins growth and adoption.

I don't think Bitcoin crashes if the EFT will not be approved because there is no "new money" (meaning money from outside of the cryptocurrency community) in BTC yet.
Therefore it might lower the price slightly but no crash like on January the 5th.

As per ETFdailynews[1], there are only 35% chances of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approving WINKLEVOSS BITCOIN TRUST ETF.  Now given situation many are thinking and pumping their money in purchase may find it difficult. Would it trigger bear phase in market.

This is not the first time when ETF has declined bitcoin. This is third time ETF will consider bitcoin.  Bettor have put only 35% money on approval by ETF

[1] http://etfdailynews.com/2017/02/21/odds-say-the-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-has-just-a-36-chance-of-approval/