Topic: What would be happened in 2024/28 BTC halving? When mining would be expensive? (Read 124 times)

You are more likely to be correct than wrong, in fact, as it stands right now, I doubt home miners make have any significant share of the total hashrate, I'd give them 5% if I were to be very generous, the harder things become, the lower that percentage will be regardless of the overall hashrate drop, larger cooperate miners have many advantages over the small miner.

The above changes only when a serious ban on large U.S cooperates miners happen, sometime that would wipe out nearly 50% of the total hashrate, home miners all over the world will find it easier to make a profit, however, I don't see such thing happening in the near future.

I think mining is converting to $$ per watt.

So if rewards drop down to 0 and it is all fees scrypt will be the logical shift for miners.

LTC will shrink like BTC does but Doge never runs out of rewards.

year 1    1x doge
year 2.   2x doge 100% inflation!!
year 3    3x doge   50% inflation
year 4    4x doge   33% inflation
year 5    5x doge   25% inflation
year 10  10x doge
year 11  11x doge 10% inflation
year 20  20x doge
year 21  21x doge 5% inflation
year 50  50x doge
year 51  51x doge 2% inflation
year 100 100x doge
year 101 101x doge 1% inflation

The idea that miner shift to scrypt algo  when BTC runs out of rewards = maybe

If 21m of BTC are mined I don't think mining would become unprofitable. Miners will still be rewarded from transaction fees and we do not know what will happen to Bitcoin maybe it would crash or not.
But on my own guess, Bitcoin price may become more stable and have less volatility if that day comes.

We already have some discussion about this here "How will Bitcoin survive after all 21M coins have been mined?"

Hi Dave,

I consider myself educated about finance but I am a tech noob.
My question may have been answered elsewhere on the forum but in case it hasn't..

What happens when all 21 million BTC are mined or when mining becomes unprofitable? I assume due to energy costs and computational power.
I hear people say that BTC will crash in value when this happens. I wonder why that is. My logics tell me that 18 million coins are more rare than 21 million coins and thus they will keep their value.

And secondly, what happens if/when governments forbid all conversion of currency to BTC in order to keep the financial system alive, and prevent a monetary collapse by not allowing a run to BTC? If they succeed in taking down the exchanges (currently there are lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase) I don't see how there could be mass adoption of BTC. I don't think that mining problems can kill the value of BTC. But taking down the exchanges can, as there can't be more influx of money into BTC.

Correct me if this is flawed

I think so. There was a time when people could mine Bitcoin using CPUs. That was the genesis blocks time. Bitcoin Mining with a GPU is impossible right now. No GPU minable algorithm is profitable anymore (except for a few latest model GPUs) since the ETH Moved the POS update. I have a couple of Polaris cards, which are unprofitable. According to Whattomine.com, If I start Mining again with my 10 Rx 580, I will lose $2 a day. Who wants to do that?

Even a 3090Ti makes $0.08 Profit a day. A 4070Ti makes $0.38 a day. Only Good Profitable GPU is the latest one. If you have 4090, You can make $0.92 a day max with the CryptoNightGPU algorithm. A 4090 price is around $2000 right now, which will take six years to ROI. In these six years, maybe the CryptoNightGPU algorithm will be unprofitable. So, Investing in GPU mining is a loss project.

It seems I am going a bit off-topic. But, The moral is, You cannot use Mine Bitcoin with GPU anymore.

I think you're mistaking Bitcoin mining and altcoin mining. Even if somebody mines BTC with GPU right now, they're probably trying to do lottery mining, if that is even possible. Even if you can do it, the price of GPU has been decreasing steadily since those price increases comes from the ETH mining boom a few years ago. At the very least, you can find cheap AMD secondhand cards nowadays, since their latest release has been discounted so often nowadays. Anyone who wants to buy cheap GPUs is probably buying right now regardless of what happened to BTC halving.

No one knows.  The profitability of mining depends on the electricity cost, mining machine cost, and the market price of Bitcoin. In the future there is a possibility that mining machine company sellers might release more energy-saving miners with more hashing power that can trim down the maintenance cost and at the same time boost it mining capability.  Or the price of electricity might get expensive due to the depletion of natural resources, or the price of Bitcoin getting stuck to where it is due to not enough catalyst to trigger a price increase.  There are lots of variable factors that can happen i that can keep us unsure of what will happen in the future.


It relates to mining profitability.  Bitcoin halving means the reward is reduced to half.  And it means a lesser reward for miners.  If the price as I said, doesn't catch up with the halving, then miners may end up losing.  We might see many miners shutting down which may cause difficulty to reduce and mining Bitcoin may cost lower and the new lower difficulty may give miners a good chance to profit.  So at the end there will be a natural adjustment  like

1. Miners quitting due to losses mining in high difficulty,
2. Difficulty adjustment due to mining hash going down as a result of miners quitting.
3. Lower difficulty makes mining less expensive
4. Remaining Miners getting profit due to lower difficulties.

At the end when all is adjusted,  miners will eventually get a profit assuming that the price either does not change or uptrend.

Considering that for all intents and purposes ever since 2014 BTC has been unmineable using GPU's I highly doubt that... Any farm that at one time mined BTC with GPU's will have closed their doors long long ago.

With things leaning towards a brighter future for bitcoin's price, at least following bitcoin's patterns during every halving where it pumps in price, one can safely assume that the mining industry will become even more profitable and you might see new faces by then, but as other people have pointed out, if the price stays the same as it is right now which is very much a possibility, a lot of small-time bitcoin miners will definitely have a herculean time staying afloat, some may even close up shop for good, which also means well for the second-hand gaming community since that only means more cheap GPUs to forage. In any case as of now there's no definitive answer as to what would happen to bitcoin and to mining if the halving comes, but one thing's for sure, halving or not the difficulty of mining depends greatly upon the valuation of bitcoin as well as how in-demand it is.

 2023 = 6.25000 = 187,500 a block at 30k a coin seems doable and is doable and is happening right now
 2024 = 3.12500 = 187,500 a block at 60k a coin past history has show that we can do 60k
 2028 = 1.56250 = 187,500 a block at 120k a coin no history but at 1 sat per byte =  a tx could cost no lower than 27 cents which could work.
 2032 = 0.78125 = 187,500 a block at 240k a coin no history but at 1 sat per byte = a tx could cost no lower than 54 cents which could work.


smallest transactions are 227 bytes or 227 sats

My example above shows no great problem for 2024
even 2028 looks okay

but by 2056 the issues get bigger.

It's been discussed a few times in the main bitcoin discussion. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/2024-bitcoin-halving-what-are-your-expectations-5416002

But the real answer is nobody knows.

If the price stays where it is, the mines that are just scraping by now are going to have to close.
The ones that are doing OK, may have some issues staying profitable but with some players dropping out difficulty may decrease giving them a boost in profits.

We also do not know what new hardware is on the horizon, we have a general idea but no specifics. So, there is that part of the equation.

I think, and I could be 100% wrong, that we are going to see a drop in the small home / hobby miner. When you are just about breaking even, but you do it because you want to support BTC and spread the hashrate out. That's fine. If all of a sudden it's costing you $150 a month to keep your small farm running, along with the time and effort and noise and so on. You might just turn it off and sell the miners and get back into golf.

-Dave

I answered several questions in an interview but out of all the questions I found the above question to be very important. Asked what might happen after the 2024/2028 Bitcoin halving and whether Bitcoin mining will be expensive after the halving.


How Bitcoin Mining Relates to the Bitcoin Halving of 2024/28 and What Will Bitcoin Mining Be Profitable By Then?