BIP91 is now active which not only means that we're getting SegWit, but also an increase in block size.
What does Core think of this compromise?
Will there be 3 forks of Bitcoin by November? (Segwit+2MB, Segwit, BCC)
BCC has nothing to do with the main bitcoin network, like the previous forks, XT, Classic, and BU, BCC is another implementation of Bitcoin Core, separate blockchain, another altcoin.
Hardforking the whole network to increase block size requires a great deal of planning, whole consensus needs to be changed, not backwards compatible so for the time being what matters is Segwit activation and if everything goes well bitcoin network would have Segwit by the end of August.
If I am right a hard fork event requires super majority and if by November all the nodes are willing to replace the existing client with BTC1 then the network would be hard forked, if a few nodes support then we would have another altcoin, again nothing to do with the main network. Or the hard fork event would be postponed to another date, maybe a year from now. There is couple of months to ponder about an hard fork event.
Its sadly not just another alt.
Its an alt for exactly reuse of the expensive ASICs, that were a major part of keeping the Nash Equilibrium in place.
Now, there is a new attack vector open that haven't been there in that quality. This attack vector increases with the value and usability of the BCC.
The following points does sound logical to me, but maybe not from another's person's perspective.
1. I have read that ASICBoost (covert) was the main reason (I am not sure if there is any truth in it) Bitmain was against Segwit.
2. BIP148 proposal and to activate it on August 1 has to be one of the main reasons Segwit2x was deployed before July 22, obviously a split would be chaotic to the whole community.
3. Bitmain's UASF contingency plan was UAHF. Only if Segwit2x fails and BIP148 is deployed then there would be an UAHF. So now it looks almost certain that Segwit would be activated through Segwit2x then what is the point of UAHF on August 1? There is a possibility of hard fork in November, big blocks, understandable.
4.
Bitcoin ABC is a full node implementation of the Bitcoin
protocol. We have removed the controversial SegWit code
The thing here is ABC doesn't want Segwit, maybe because of point 1. And not agreeing with the current turn of events/consensus and forking off is what altcoin does.
5. I personally don't agree with this premined and frozen BTC stuff, looks a bit fishy.
6. Nash equilibrium, no player has anything to gain by changing only his own strategy. Is UAHF a player in this game? If so then UAHF is a change in strategy, maybe for a short-term gain or like you aptly said to reuse of the expensive ASICs, no big block sentiments here, avoid Segwit for the sake of ASICs.
Is it the same agenda behind the hard fork on November?