Topic: What's Next After Halving? (Read 701 times)

looking at these numbers i am curious now about the possibility of seeing a miner sponsored spam attack against bitcoin. during 2017 we certainly saw a ton of spam attacks orchestrated by many different groups including shitcoin creators such as Dash and miners were truly enjoying the huge fees. i believe we saw 3BTC per block too for a long time. that today is half the block reward and is a good incentive for a spam attack.

It is true that anything can happen. We cannot expect the price of bitcoin to rise and fall despite the halving! Maybe we wake up tomorrow and check the price, and we will find it reached the moon or vice versa!
I also think many miners will join if the returns are higher than the investment amounts!

So did the second halving in 2016 result in an instant price increase? We actually had a drop of about 40% after halving, but the price doubled by the end of the year. This year it happened that due to extraordinary events we had a drop of 50% before halving, the same can happen at any time again, but if you expect some big price shifts up immediately after halving, you're completely wrong like many others.

Halving is just reduce number of new mined coins by 50%, but this does not change the fact that we have almost 18.5 million BTC in circulation at this moment. Every day, part of them is on the free market, and part on the OTC market, which is obviously quite enough to meet current needs and form the price we currently have.

I don't think either too. If, after halving, there will be big movements on the market, then we should already see that movement. But the fact, bitcoin price still up and down, but we already touch $10k in a few weeks ago although the price comes back to the lower price now. We don't know the truth about what will happen with bitcoin price, whether it will increase or decrease. We only know that some speculators predict that the bitcoin price will go down, but I don't think that they know about the real thing that will happen with bitcoin.

I'm not sure that will happen. Many users expect big movements in the market, higher price, more investors. But, based on what actually? I don't think that this halving produced desired effect and although some impacts might be posponed I don't expect some big changes and surprises regarding the price.

I just don't understand why everyone wants to use previous halvenings as a hint to the present. The conditions were so much different back then in terms of the sheer novelty, the new hardware manufacturers pouring investment, new exchanges, gambling places, marketplaces, damn we even had BTC payments on Steam. Today its a pretty much settled scenario hurt by vaporware and scams.
Adoption is something that the community seems to have totally left on the merchants and consumers in a "Take it or leave it" fashion. So, This halvening is nothing like the last ones. That ebullient mood of a brave, new world has changed now. What we need is positive adoption and reliability news on LN end. Maybe another set of new features driven by actual open source changes.

If you observe Scenarios:



Halving occurs, you can judge the rise in price of Bitcoin halving will occur, but if so, the question ...! why at this time after Bitcoin halving was completed in May 2020 there were no signs of a rise.

You need to observe and analyze halving that has happened in 2012 and 2017, "I give a few examples: If you observe the halving that happened in 2012, the price of Bitcoin was around US $ 12, lapse of 6 months after half the price of Bitcoin jumped 1000 percent to strengthen at the level of US $ 125 per BTC and so on until the peak of November 2013 crawled 9000 percent to the level of US $ 1,160 per BTC, and the same thing also happened halving in 2017.

Conclusion;
If you observe the halving that happened, Bitcoin then, strengthened the price of Bitcoin through a process that lasted for months, you need to know Bitcoin always does the same thing in the formation of the highest price after Bitcoin halving, but for that historically, it takes a process and time for the next few months.

Your concern and that of many others may be answered by the fact that we will always have miners who are willing to process transactions even though it will only depend on fees. The real consequence that bitcoin users might experience is the increase in transaction fees after the absence of prizes per block received by miners. We will continue to move forward as well as bitcoin. It is the developers job to manage how this system has to go on and until here we are just connoisseurs of this great financial innovation.

The future of bitcoin is still shrouded in mystery and anxiety about how it continues, but I remember one thing mentioned in this financial innovation that stated bitcoin was still an experimental stage.

There are plenty of people who will find ways to mod the old hardware and sell it to individuals looking for a small start into mining as a hobbyist or for academic purposes. You can follow posts from Philipma1957 to know more about this.

Fee market. It will be several decades from now and if all goes well, bitcoin will have become the reserve currency for all others. Micropayments on second layer and on-chain transactions for their settlement + high-value transactions will provide the Fee.

The day bitcoin stops having enough hashpower will mean that the experiment has failed. Provided that the whole crypto-economy doesn't pivot to something worthy enough in the meanwhile.

Miners have to adopt well to the current realities otherwise they can be facing bleak business. Anyway, I am expecting that among many entrepreneurs, miners are always advanced in thinking, and they know what they are doing. They already know this thing and most may have been prepared so well that they can continue doing business. Yes, eventually miners may have to depend on fees but this can be many, many years from now. Let's concentrate on the next 10 years, first. I am sure that miners are hoping that soon Bitcoin can be back at the 20K ATH to get back to the kind of profitability they enjoyed before.

I think it's time for the developers to think about other ways to secure the network. The current POW has been too much resource hungry as large part of miners cost are electricity bills. Not only the current mining system is decreasing the miners profit but it also is a large drain on global energy supply. If we couldn't think a way of making it more efficient.

Thank you! I didn't know that it is possible to re-use mining rigs to altcoins, maybe that is the answer I want to know on how we can efficiently transition old mining rigs for bitcoin. Also, my question about what will happen in the future when we reached the final halving is answered.


This possibly serves as a reason why we shouldn't doubt bitcoin even in the future, thinking of halving as a threat turns out to be a good opportunity especially when this asset becomes more scarce, perhaps good market price awaits in the future.

Did you read OP post? He is talking about mining, halved reward, old mining rigs and the future of mining...

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@OP, I am not following mining news but AFAIK old mining rigs are diverted to mining altcoins. Newer machines are kept for bitcoin mining with certain profits depending from its performance, energy price... Big miners aren't afraid from halving, it is the smaller miners who are marginalised.

After halving we should see big movements on the market. There we so many hype news about it what there for sure should be some intresting movements

I think it is lower than what we have a couple of weeks ago, coz I tried it in small amount and the fee took almost 1/5 of the whole amount that I sent.

'big' and 'prepared' miners will continue for sure, I know they know that this halving will come to their way so they'll definitely prepare for the decrease in profit for mining, on top of these is the equipment upgrade to make mining more efficient. The hashrate is decreasing lately, but it came back and it's pretty natural if you look the halving that took 8 and 4 years ago.

What the miners need to prepare for is the next halving, although that would be in 4 years it will be more difficult than what it is now. Only the biggest will survive after all.

There are two kinds of miners in the cryptocurrency industry. Ones who are running a small business with only 1-2 machines and the others who have big companies , whose revenue depends on the Mining only.

For those big companies , the big miners, it would be far much easier for them to continue to work with cryptocurrencies.

For the small scale miners who are using the renewable sources of energy , even they would continue to work , but the small scale farmers using the non renewable sources and paying the hefty electrical bills every now and then would have to shut off his work .

The fee as the person above me said is 22 times smaller than then block reward . But at the same time Chances of getting the reward aren't really high .

Therefore if the person is able to afford running the Mining machine with decreased wage , he would do so but those who are right now in a big loss would shut down .

But I do think miners were already aware of the fact that Halving will do this to them and therefore they are well prepared in advance.

Hash-rate did decrease , which was very natural to happen but now everything is back to normal again . So no need to worry.

6.25 block reward is still a lot more than the fees.

Take a look at this block, for example, recently mined:
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/633186

So, reward is still 22 times bigger than the fees.

Miners will continue to mine. Maybe some of them will leave... if they leave and the hashrate decrease the diffilcult will also decrease and some miners may come back. The  bitcoin netowrk regulates itself.

On the other hand, if the price goes up miners will keep coming and the hashrate will continue to grow. Nothing to worry about miners.

I think this will improve the mining performance of the miners, but I don't know, like you, what will happen to their equipment? If you don't come up with an alternative processor, it will stand still for a while.

Long story short, if there's no critical radical change to BTC's structure then miners will rely solely on fees and the existing BTC will start to deflate as money is lost various ways. The "lost" BTC is already much more than many think, which makes the BTC maximum supply even smaller than 21M (which was a low amount already anyway).

But the year all BTC will be mined is too far away to talk about it now. Lots of things about Bitcoin and crypto in general have changed since 2009 - the world is in a big change itself. By the year BTC touches its max supply, I would personally bet there'll be some hard fork to add more zeros before the dot or the fees might become too high to be affordable.

Until then, it's mostly speculation but there might be a core change. There's a possibility that Bitcoin will fail long before all coins are mined too - all options are on the table, there are many many years ahead!

Despite of the decrease in the mining rewards that miners usually get, Bitcoin's hash rate is indicating a strong signs of recovery. According to the site I've read, from a low of 90.29 TH/s, it climbed up to 116.6 TH/s in just 24 hours. Creating a 13.8% increase that can compared to an increase of more than 29% in just a week.
After the bitcoin halving, many miners probably shut their operations down due to smaller mining income or reward.

How much is the expected revenue of miners per TH/s?

From $0.161 per day, it became $0.09 per day (BitInfoCharts), is this the end of mining? of course not. With mining rewards decreased, there are better hardware created such as MicroBT's Whatsminer M30S+ now available to the market. Older Generation Bitcoin Miners are surely unprofitable these days. According to this news, there are 45 older mining devices that have been shut down overnight after the halving. 

I'm not sure if this do really provide hope for miners to continue, it might significantly improve the performance of their mining rigs but my personal question is, what will happen to the old mining rigs that they have? Perhaps, they have an option to sell it but I think it isn't the best option since no one will buy a hardware that is obsolete.

Any way, what is more important for me is that miners will still have an option which is more efficient, that even mining rewards have been halved, we still have strong hash power for our transactions to be fast and convenient. The next question I have is what will happen when we reached the last halving? no more reward will be available, then how about bitcoin miners? How about us, will we have enough hash power? Who will process our transactions?

Thank you for reading my post, I hope I also made you think about this top.