Topic: When do you expect a turnaround in bitcoin price? (Read 1581 times)

Arguments and factors in favor of a reversal from bear to bull market:
- According to a lot of the Elliott Wave technical analysis folks, we're in the process of completing wave 5 (i.e. the end) of a long downtrend, and we should start an uptrend soon. This from guys who have been consistently bearish throughout 2014.
- Eventually Lawsky will get regulation figured out, ending a lot of uncertainty.
- Eventually we will get past the phase where lots of merchants are signing up (which is an important building block to the overall bitcoin economy) but no one is using it, and people will start to actually use it.
- Some long term investors are probably selling in 2014 for tax reasons. (They need capital gains to balance out their capital losses from leveraged longs.) This will cease to be an issue come January.
- Eventually someone's ETF will get approved.
- People will wake up to the fact that 2014 has been filled with some damn good fundamentals.

Arguments in favor of continued bear all the way to zero:
- it's been going down for the past year so duhhhhh, it's gonna keep going down, cut your loose!
- it's been a scam all along. Cut your loose!

To me, the arguments in favor of a turnaround remain more convincing than the arguments that bitcoin is terminal. When? I dunno, I thought it was gonna be 6 months ago.

Itwill obviously turn around its not going to be stable at 200-300.

We'll see 2k next year.

That is correct, as long as PoW mining exists in Bitcoin, new money is needed every year to keep the price from falling. This is because Proof of Work is actually "security by burning", it burns 10% of Bitcoin marketcap every year, and obtains security, because to attack Bitcoin, the attacker would also have to burn a similar amount of fiat value to have any hope of successful attack.

Of course there's a much more elegant way of having security at no cost, that is Proof of Stake, it is nearly impossible for even a determined attacker to obtain 51% in a PoS system. But I'm afraid Bitcoin is too far along the PoW path to adopt the better way.

right now it is falling and with no signs of recover.

There is no stop until the last year levels, until something happens

i dont think the price turn around it might stop falling though

Bitcoin needs an endless supply of new money to keep the price up.

Interestingly, merchant adoption is now viewed as a negative for the price of Bitcoin. It discourages "HODLing". Yet without Bitcoin being used as a medium of exchange, what's the point? Bitcoin doesn't generate any income.

The real drivers for the use of Bitcoin turned out to be uses that got around some governmental restriction. Silk Road drove the first bubble, and  China's exchange controls drove the second. Crackdowns on both of those were successful, and those bubbles popped.

That's where we are now. Where's the upside potential? (And none of that "civilization is going to collapse and only Bitcoin will be valuable" crap. Not helping.)

Maybe it might bottom out in January, it's difficult to make predictions right now.

That is true, the only reason I'm still an investor in Bitcoin is because what you said, specifically the hope that there are still significant new money that will flow in.

Nowadays I only invest in cryptos that are based on Proof of Stake. Bitcoin is the only PoW based crypto investment I have.

What's the hurry?

Just buy on the dips and wait a few years.

it should eventually come up again, just be patiente, maybe next year or 2016 when block halving will occur

You realize how small the bitcoin economy still is right? It's very easy to increase over 10% annually. Add to that supply will halve again soon.
Maybe a slow downtrend can be maintained in this bear zoo until the next halving.

I don't think it'll turn around before the new year. Just give it time. The price today is largely irrelevant if you believe in its future potential.

The price can NEVER turn around, UNLESS annual new money inflow exceeds 10% of Bitcoin marketcap in fiat value. Because PoW mining burns 10% marketcap every year.

So get busy marketing Bitcoin to new money if you want price to turn around.

^ This ^

I guess we will return to pre-November 2013 values before steady growth will continue.
Who knows though, if you check the orderbooks you'll see it's only one or a few people pushing the price down with a very thin order book. Any buying volume immediately takes the price up again.

We may check the previous year low but i don't think we will go much lower, fundamentals are still good, more acceptance than ever before, good transaction volumes.
Don't panic, don't let the shills, scammers and manipulators get the best of you.

nah. its over.

Do you think Bitcoin will start rising before next year?
Do you think Bitcoin will make a turnaround after a hitting a low price?

What do you think? Share your opinion.