Topic: When is it not a bubble? (Read 1780 times)

It isn't a bubble when there are not enough people involved in it yet.

I would assume that all this press coverage will increase the user base by a factor of a good 10-15%

Its been mentioned twice on BBC alone, so that's a lot more potential UK buyers for a start.

We also have the Cyprus banks opening today - I'm sure that is going to have an effect - although mostly from speculators rather than people from Cyprus!

We are also forgetting that it is much easier to buy bitcoins than to buy shares.  I would have thought that is also going to have an effect.

Over the Easter break, people are still goingto be buying and selling bitcoins - can't do that with shares either.

I still think that its a bubble when a random person I speak to on the high street starts talking about bitcoins as the way to easy riches!

Listen to the chat on btc24. A lot of questions asked like "Total Newb here, should I buy now or wait for a dip?" "Newbie here, what is a realistic target for the price".
It's hard to draw a conclusion from that alone since those guys will probably not hold a large amount of the overall market. But those are definitely signs of a bubble if you ask me. But then, how high will it carry us ? Sell now ? Really?

If new users are driven by greed, not usability of Bitcoin, than thats a bubble.
If new users buy Bitcoin just to keep it because it rises, than they will sell it immediatly when it will start to fall.
Noobs point of view

It is cyclical. Bitcoin will have to live several cycles like the one decribed above. The first bubble already was in 2011. The second we will in all likelihood see April-May. It is currently growing 20% per week, you can do the math, in the end of May we are at $1000 if we continue like this. Then it is a bubble, an overextension, which will crash to the baseline.

It is up to bitcoin's long term solidity and usability, whether a bubble and a crash will be followed by order(s) of magnitude bigger rise, bubble (and crash), or whether it will continue low.

Japan's real estate was a bubble in 1980s, because after 25 years, it is still trading for 25% of the then valuation. If bitcoin rises to $1000, and it is still trading in $250 in 2038, then we can say for sure it was a top.

Interim bubbles such as 2011 should be traded with wisdom. After all, the ones that bought in at $31.9 are now sitting on 4.9% monthly gains. 

New Paradigm!!!

That's when the mega bubble time will really come.

Agreed

When it's not trading for more than $10.

Hardly.
I wasn't saying we are currently overly hyped, I was referring to 2011.
The few people who read the slashdot stuff, and who noticed the rise of silk road reached a critical mass.. Suddenly the price skyrocketed because there were people willing to buy for any price to get stuff on silk road...
And then that rocket price caught people's attention, people believed bitcoin was on the way up for good... hype... which fed on itself, the higher the price went, the higher people believed it would go, so everyone purchased to catch their train to retirement. And then eventually the handful of people who had heard of bitcoin, and the handful of people with pie in the sky dreams ran out of money... the purchasing power dried up, the price crashed, and hype turned to hatred. Not unlike the dot com bubble years ago... or the more recent housing bubble. "Buy a house, it will double in value in 10 years!"

This current cycle doesn't seem particularly hyped. yes the price is skyrocketing, but the number of users keeps growing rather quickly. As well as the number of places actually taking bitcoin. I'm sure up here somewhere we might really hit a bubble, and then it might crash again... But were currently in the early stages of the 2011 bubble.. where the price was driven by demand not hype. Also a lot of folks are of the "once burned twice shy" category.
I personally hope the price crashes to the single digits again... I also hope it rises to 10,000$ per bitcoin...

Have we reached the point of everyone knowing and having the choice of getting themselves some Bitcoin if they wish? Like with gold.

We are in a bubble. And it will likely pop mid 2013.



http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/03/27/peter-schiff-market-crushing-treasury-collapse-to-hit-around-2013/

It is a bubble when the buying power is driven purely by hype and not by demand and circulation.

Proven idiot still idiotin'.

It's only a bubble when the panic sells begin.

Can't fucking wait. I give it 1 month MAX.

And when is it just the beginning of a new paradigm for currency?

I was saying its a bubble when we were at $35. Now, I have no idea and Im a little bit scared.