Topic: When Searches for Bitcoin Go Up, The Price Goes Down according to a recent study (Read 1000 times)
August 07, 2014, 01:53:13 PM
In the scientific community, there is a saying. "Correlation does not imply causation." If I told you that my productivity goes up for an hour every time I drink a drink a cup of coffee, does that mean that the coffee by itself caused me to become more motivated with my work? I am thinking that people confusing correlation and causation have cause so many of those oddball diet fads that it's not even funny. So I'm going to ignore the BBC article and just keep earning Bitcoin however I can.
August 07, 2014, 11:13:52 AM
The article reads like a load of crap by a clueless newbie journo
Research sometimes is no more than eloquent nonsense
Research sometimes is no more than eloquent nonsense
August 07, 2014, 08:13:51 AM
All they're recognising here is that bubbles burst, and that a big factor in the bubbles is media and social network attention.
So when search volume spikes, a bubble is probably happening, which will pop at some point or other. Well done BBC, justifying that license fee once more.. (but at least it's more visibility for bitcoin)
So when search volume spikes, a bubble is probably happening, which will pop at some point or other. Well done BBC, justifying that license fee once more.. (but at least it's more visibility for bitcoin)
nah BBC is not talking about bubbles, or devaluations.. just short term hypes that corrects itself (spikes).
this is their description of a hype spike
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this is a bubble
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the article does NOT explain very well that 'spikes' or even 'bubbles' as being part of natural growth (positive propaganda and how bitcoin is actually trending), but it does try...
Quote
This too tends to lead to a rise in the nominal value of Bitcoins.
"Our analysis suggests that the successive waves of growth of the Bitcoin economy were driven by corresponding waves of new users from public circles gradually opening to the currency" wrote the researchers.
"Our analysis suggests that the successive waves of growth of the Bitcoin economy were driven by corresponding waves of new users from public circles gradually opening to the currency" wrote the researchers.
this is natural growth
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the article does NOT mention or insinuate that 'spikes' are devaluationary (long term loss negative propaganda)
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so relax.. the article is a basically a useless page filler containing nothing of relevance, purely them trying to look smart for a lollipop to tell people that a spike goes up and down.
August 07, 2014, 07:36:53 AM
All they're recognising here is that bubbles burst, and that a big factor in the bubbles is media and social network attention.
So when search volume spikes, a bubble is probably happening, which will pop at some point or other. Well done BBC, justifying that license fee once more.. (but at least it's more visibility for bitcoin)
So when search volume spikes, a bubble is probably happening, which will pop at some point or other. Well done BBC, justifying that license fee once more.. (but at least it's more visibility for bitcoin)
August 07, 2014, 07:07:04 AM
The conclusion of this "research" is completely insubstantial, certainly not newsworthy. With the still minuscule sample size of large market peaks and troughs, and them not considering other parameters and the actual context of social mentions this is poor science in my opinion. Why the BBC insists on choosing to report drivel rather than on real developments and innovation in the economy I do not know.
August 07, 2014, 06:29:36 AM
seems some of you havnt read the article, but just read the title and became too eager to reply with opinion, before putting it into context. so here goes.
there is a correlation between searches and price and if you read the article. the rise in searches causes a surge ( price rise) but when there is a SPIKE the surge (price rise) is followed by a drop.
which is correct. as the SPIKE is a SPIKE (up and down motion) ... basically a spike wouldnt be a spike without a down motion after /\. because without a down motion it would just be a rise _/¯ . so when someone say there was a spike then, yea give them a round of applause, they should get given a gold star and a lollypop for saying that when a spike happens the price goes up and then down. A+ for little timmy in office B of the BBC press room for describing a spike _/\_.
but..
the down motion is not a loss of value beow the weekly/monthly average. its just a correctional drop from a speculative high back down to a level that meets the average again or is slightly above average compared to before the spike
this:
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_/
or this:
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but not this:
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\_
there is a correlation between searches and price and if you read the article. the rise in searches causes a surge ( price rise) but when there is a SPIKE the surge (price rise) is followed by a drop.
which is correct. as the SPIKE is a SPIKE (up and down motion) ... basically a spike wouldnt be a spike without a down motion after /\. because without a down motion it would just be a rise _/¯ . so when someone say there was a spike then, yea give them a round of applause, they should get given a gold star and a lollypop for saying that when a spike happens the price goes up and then down. A+ for little timmy in office B of the BBC press room for describing a spike _/\_.
but..
the down motion is not a loss of value beow the weekly/monthly average. its just a correctional drop from a speculative high back down to a level that meets the average again or is slightly above average compared to before the spike
this:
/\_
_/
or this:
_/\_
but not this:
_/\
\_
Quote
In addition, they found found that search spikes were early indicators of an imminent drop in its value but added that this did not act as a good predictor of the biggest falls in the value of bitcoins
August 07, 2014, 06:14:38 AM
Maybe it's cause old miners that have forgotten about bitcoin suddently remember their bitcoin address when they start hearing about bitcoins more and more and realized they are now rich as shit and they start selling their coins? 
I don't know, I would hold as much as possible now. I really think the time will come when selling btc won't even be worth it. 
I don't know, I would hold as much as possible now. I really think the time will come when selling btc won't even be worth it. August 07, 2014, 06:09:32 AM
This article is more FUD from the bbc and the analysis is originally very sketchy. I have to commend the bbc on providing such consistent levels of tripe... Using search volume is interesting but the.fact remains that the bitcoin price is volatile and.inconsistent
August 07, 2014, 05:32:38 AM
journalist don't understand the supply of bitcoin ... 
if you supply a "high" amount of bitcoin ... yes, the price go down (and i don't think so now).
but if 1000 person want to buy bitcoin in a day or a week (new and noobs person, i mean) ... the bitcoin price go UP !
if you supply a "high" amount of bitcoin ... yes, the price go down (and i don't think so now).
but if 1000 person want to buy bitcoin in a day or a week (new and noobs person, i mean) ... the bitcoin price go UP !
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