Topic: When to Buy New Machines Factoring Formulation -Decay Prevention- Network Growth (Read 262 times)

It's definitely an interesting question.  What's your forward looking time frame for such an equation?  The other variable is equipment cost.  Supply is there, it's just are you going to pay the prices driven by current demand or can you jump to the front of the supply chain?

I don't know if you can accurately predict decay and do something to prevent it.  These aren't options contracts and but the theta and vega are going to ruin whatever you have built as an equation to this problem.  I think by the time we get miners, we're already beginning to ascend the steep section of the theta curve..where when the manuf had the miners (mining...) when it was relatively low.  Similar to an option contract approaching expiration, the time decay kills any real gains you might have had.

And vega... volatility - or how sensitive price of the underlying is compared to what you're trading.  If Bitcoin goes to 40k, what happens to the cost and demand of miners?  You'll be ahead briefly, but then as the next generation of miners put you underwater... you'll be scratching your head wondering if you should "do it again".

I really do not know what you guys are going on about. the replies are not from experienced miners operating a farm.(not hosing in hillsboro or remedying a downed pool) Nor are the replies to my topic on point , My post is about making a network sustain and grow via metrics  I want to see metric or a formula using listed factors. Equipment acquisition is literally the last of my worries. Help with the numbers. Not help each other build GPU rigs on my metric post.

First you ask for help, then you call BS on experienced people that are trying to help you. No good deed goes unpunished. Go and buy all those "machines in stock", don't be surprised when you realize you lost all your money.

Still searching for insight , To the poster that says machines are not available idk what to tell you i get email every-other day about machines in stock(I dont care what make i get as long as roi is decent,)M3 Have been my winner lately ordering from every 12th/s $1188 that comes available include psu and flat 100$ shipping .  Im trying to snowball and compound a sustainable operation with positive unity

This all a very interesting topic.

It of course completely ignores the most basic real constraint today: Lack of actual hardware to purchase.

At the present time, there are essentially zero miners to purchase today. All large scale manufacturers are productions constrained and when they produce a "batch" (i.e. a production run of maybe a few hundred), they sell out in a matter of hours. Miss the purchase window, and wait another month or more to try again.

With the current speculative frenzy on BTC price, folks buy when possible.

Google the acronym FOMO for the current situation. 

I need a little help guys.here is what I use to factor I would like to see your numbers or a variant of your numbers or your network growth methods.


1) Network Strength
2) Electric Used                       
3) Market Rate
4) Difficulty Increase
5) Block Reward
6) Mined Per Month        -My main focus-

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Using these factors,We can predict a need for network growth ,and how much to keep BTC mined p/Month FLOATING or growing No re-buying means you eventually decay

I reinvest 17%-34%(Depends on how things look based on the 6 factors) of profits just to maintain a floating point .  I compound these for 2-3 months then reorder
I retrofit while I wait for shipment , then implement network add-ons as they come in.

It takes as little as 70% (consistently) in reorders to actually "grow" the network and get the BTC mined per month up without electrical cost interfering.
Unfortunately I cant do 100% reinvest

Anyone else dedicated to the game?. Network triple this year trying to maintain?   (but still making the same!(BTCBTC)
Difficulty jumps 17% Market drops 40%       btc from 1.90 to 1.30 =    28ish%that the network hash has to increase just to maintain the 1.90BTC a month.



Its not everything , but what do you guys do?.
Id like to see some audit numbers i know this is prized information to most large scale miners but I want to crank it up !!! (Give me demo numbers)
Id like to focus only on BTC mined per month growth, based on other factors.-I understand this is risky in dips ,
 but would like to take advantage of dips assuming we wont take a hit harder then like 80% of market rate.
What is you guys method of madness?