Topic: When will Bitcoin catch up with Gold in capitalization? (Read 1209 times)

That is certainly true, mate. We're still early to the game. Maybe when BTC is fully mainstream, prices will go way beyond $1m? One can only imagine. Impressively, Bitcoin has had higher gains than Gold within such a short amount of time. I'm sure it will surpass Gold's market cap soon. Afterwards, where will Gold be? Investors will probably ditch the "yellow metal" in favor of the new "digital Gold". Gold will only be used for jewelry and electronics. Even Silver will lose its luster, as Litecoin proves to be the next big thing.

This is the inevitable future. Haters will be crying once they see how big Bitcoin has grown. Just keep buying and "hodling". We'll be the ones laughing at the end.

Investment patterns will also gradually change over time, of course..It all comes down to trust, but I'm sure at least when the BTC price broke through the new ATH some time ago to above 100k, there were already quite a lot of media outlets reporting it. I think people are quite sensitive now. Indeed, it doesn't really help increase adoption, but at least people who still don't really understand will start reading and asking, especially to those closest to them who have already made the investment.

Bitcoin adoption is quite low even if we were to eliminate the countries (locations) that are lacking electricity and/or lacking internet services (or cell phone services that would allow for connection to the internet.. even if the data might be limited).  I was not attempting to suggest that infrastructure is keeping back bitcoin adoption as much as even awareness or hearing the bitcoin name or people thinking they know what is bitcoin, they likely don't really know very much about what bitcoin is, even if they had heard the name and they might speculate that they know what is bitcoin.

Taking whatever factors of bitcoin exposure, bitcoin adoption remains quite low whether we are talking about individuals or institutions and/or even governments.  Many institutions and governments are not lacking information service (such as internet), so bitcoin remains quite immature, even if more and more folks are hearing about bitcoin ETFs, and even the bitcoin ETFs are still not very widely available, even though they have been quite successful in terms of some folks buying bitcoin price exposure through such instruments, but still many RIA (registered investment advisors) are barely coming into having BTC spot price ETFs available for them to offer to their clients... not that ETFs are real bitcoin, even if there may be some requirements that the underlying managers of the ETFs are supposed to be backing the BTC with actual bitcoin (which I am not completely sure about the various terms of how matched the ETF shares have to be matched with actual bitcoin).

Of course. Not everyone knows about BTC. Even though institutions have joined the game, they only constitute a small fraction of the world's population. There are many countries without Internet access and/or reliable access to electricity. How can people living in such countries use BTC that way? For adoption to increase, there needs to be the proper infrastructure to make it happen.

I think we're still early to the game. Set yourself forward 10 - 20 years, and Bitcoin will already be known to almost everyone in the world. Once that's done, nothing should stop BTC from surpassing Gold's market cap. At least, that's what I think.

Yeah.. gold bugs, even though they tend to know about sound money, don't tend to really understand bitcoin... too bad for them.  The gold bugs that figure out bitcoin figure out that gold is fucked.. even though some of them (who learn about bitcoin) still might end up learning about bitcoin and still choosing to hold a certain gold allocation (perhaps more than they should), but little by little they also may well end up figuring out that bitcoin replaces gold as the most superior of monies ever known to man, including that if bitcoin happens to be 1,000x or more better than gold in terms of monetary properties, it still could take a bit of time for that to be reflected in the market, even though the writing is on the wall for anyone who spends some time figuring out the reality of bitcoin's superior value relative to gold that will continue to inspire the gravitation of value into bitcoin and out of gold..

Don't take it wrong, since it is not just good to look at gold, since bitcoin is taking the value from all monetized assets, since bitcoin is superior to all assets that are being used as monetary instruments/vehicles.. houses, equities, collectables and other places that normies tend to hold their value).


More correctly, bitcoin is in early adoption phases, so of course it is going to have a lot of unfair advantages over gold... if we might call it unfair or just call it reality.


Exactly.. .. bit coin might start to settle down a wee bit in the degree of its volatility when it gets more than 10x of gold's market cap.  So sure bitcoin will likely continue to be volatile, but it is likely to be more stable as it is progressing from 10x gold's market cap until it reaches 1,000x or more of gold's market cap.


Probably less than 1% of the world's population has any BTC, so it is very misleading when people try to act like bitcoin is anything even close to approaching a mature asset class.


I doubt it is a good idea to keep any more than 10% of the size of your holdings in gold as compared to what you have in bitcoin and probably even 10% is way too much, even though some people, institutions and governments are going to want to continue to cling onto their shiny metal rock... but it does not matter if they continue to cling onto an inferior  asset that is ongoingly going to get its lunch eaten, just like it has gotten eaten by BTC over the past nearly 13-ish years (I will let them have the first 3 years of bitcoin years as not counting towards price discovery)... we can start from 2012... .to help out gold's comparative numbers a bit.

Bitcoin is still in the hype phase. It isn't even mainstream yet. Although BTC has made substantial progress within just 15 years, there's a long road ahead before it becomes relatively stable. Stability can only be achieved once the market reaches a certain level of maturity. A considerable amount of the world's population hasn't bought or used BTC yet. Compared to traditional assets, Bitcoin is just getting started. It will continue to go up until a threshold is reached. Just like Gold.

I know for sure that BTC will surpass Gold's market cap. Especially when adoption is increasing at a fast pace. Let's give it 1-2 more decades to see what happens. Even if BTC surpasses Gold's market cap, that doesn't mean the "yellow metal's" days are over. Neither BTC can replace Gold or viceversa. Each will have their own uses/purpose in life. I'd suggest you hold both for complete peace of mind. You'll thank me later.

BTC is always there, in different cycles and different prices - and gold is there too when the instability comes.
They change each other in the minds of people respectively, and I think it's a behavior that is fine.
As you said - this forum would be inclined towards BTC and rightfully so.

That time will come in the decades ahead of us, in my opinion.
And it's simple - gold is when the instability comes, BTC - when there is no such thing, simple as that.

Bitcoin's market cap is still growing faster than gold because bitcoin's market cap is still quite small, but as bitcoin gets bigger, this growth rate will slow down. So catching up with gold's capitalization is not easy and may happen in the short term.
People often say that stable gold prices mean that gold prices do not increase too quickly, not that gold prices will stop increasing if the economy stabilizes.



Bitcoin and gold both have their own pros and cons, and both have different use cases, it is difficult to say that bitcoin is superior to gold in every way and vice versa. But since we are on the bitcoin forum it is understandable why bitcoin is biased and overrated  .

Don't you mean it will be easier for Bitcoin to catch up with Gold? After all, BTC's market cap went higher than Gold's within such a short amount of time. I know countries stockpiling Gold will increase its price. But only while wars and geopolitical tensions persist. Once it's over, Gold prices will settle. That's where Bitcoin comes in.

Many institutional investors (and a few governments) are already adding BTC to their portfolio. They consider Bitcoin as the next "digital Gold". With a predictable supply and portability, BTC is already superior to Gold. It just needs time for the world to recognize it. Who knows how valuable BTC will be once it's adopted by almost everyone in the world?

Even without war or economic instability, the demand for gold will continue to increase because most governments want to own as much gold as possible to secure their economies. Meanwhile, if bitcoin continues to be classified as a risky asset and not an option for governments. I don't think it can surpass gold's capitalization in the future.

While we are bitcoin investors and always want bitcoin to be the best asset, we need to accept the fact that gold is still the most sought after asset and the best asset in the world today. So I don't think we'll see bitcoin catch up or surpass gold anytime soon, at least not in this decade.

After ten months, gold market cap rise around 40% while Bitcoin market cap rise for 100%.

If this trend keep continue, it's hard for Bitcoin to catch up gold, although in the long run Bitcoin will.

The war in many countries still not yet ended and we've heard South Korea attempted martial law in the last week, if there are more countries join in war, gold price will keep rising.

I never viewed metals as an investment for future to myself, but i always saw it as a great way to save your cash and retain the value from when you bought it. It's not hard to turn it to liquid cash, and it beats letting inflation destroy your saving whereas bitcoin is accepted as a form of payment (also the stores of value) but just not widely yet. It's only 15 years old, these things take time. In another 15 years the amount of places accepting it as payment will likely be much greater.

I think you've meant "Bitcoin will surpass Gold". And yes, that is a possibility in the future considering that institutional investors are adopting it at a fast pace. All of the hype is on BTC right now. Not Gold. Although countries are slowly accumulating Gold, they're exploring adding BTC to their reserves. Discoveries of new deposits tells us Gold is not as scarce as we once thought it was. The more Gold is found, the less valuable it will become. At least, that's how I see it. I could be wrong, though.

You're right that Bitcoin is relatively new to the world compared to Gold. However, BTC has gained value at a faster rate than Gold (within just 15 years). Meanwhile, Gold has been around for centuries projecting slow and steady gains. It's relatively stable, but you won't earn much holding it long-term (unlike BTC). You'll be surprised how far Bitcoin will go in the future. This is just the beginning. Once BTC surpasses Gold in market cap, it would've truly gone mainstream. Just keep holding until that time comes. Cheers.

There's no denying it
We may not know when, but Bitcoin will surely surpass Bitcoin
One of the major reasons this will happen is because
Unlike GOLD, people can easily be able to see and track any transactions made with Bitcoin so the government can't lie about it(decentralized)

Although since gold has been in existence for centuries, it won't be an easy task compared to gold, Bitcoin is still very new to the market

Of course. Bitcoin is still new to the world. It's only 15 years old. Unlike Gold which has been around for centuries. With due time, BTC will be able to surpass Gold's market cap. Institutional investors are already showing huge interest in it. This year alone, Bitcoin had more gains than Gold itself. That's a fact that can't be denied. Developers will continue to introduce a series of network upgrades to make Bitcoin bigger and stronger than ever. All subject to the approval of community members.

With network hashrate growing each year, there's strong indication that Bitcoin will last a very long time. Probably a lifetime. Like I've said before, Gold will stop being a store of value as it turns into an industrial metal. It will only be used for jewelry and electronics, but not considered a serious long-term investment. Future generations will have this mindset. Just you wait and see.

I think the only thing bitcoin needs here is to be popular, it needs to be more widely accepted and become globally popular, only then will it have a chance to equal or even surpass gold's capitalization .

Overall, both assets have different use cases, bitcoin can be used as an asset or a means of payment .  Meanwhile, gold cannot be used as a means of payment but it is also a type of asset or jewelry and is widely used in most industries . Therefore, the demand for gold will not stop even if more gold is mined and the capitalization value of gold will continue to increase instead of standing still waiting for bitcoin to overtake it . Bitcoin is still far behind gold and I think it will take a long time for Bitcoin to catch up .

While Bitcoin recently reach above 100,00K and its achievement of over 10% of gold's market cap demonstrate impressive progress, to have equal market cap as gold at 850K will need much more. Bitcoin will need much broader adoption and significant technological improvements,  even maybe better than the Lightning Network.

While the value of gold is based on its physical and historic use, Bitcoin currently is more like digital utility and speculation. The higher the price of Bitcoin goes, the less it will be used as a payment system but more as a reserve asset. Whether this shift would be beneficial does depend on market dynamics and government regulation. All that being said, I believe in Bitcoin, and I hope that Bitcoin can finally reaching gold's market cap in few decades, with better global economic trends I think that's possible.

Bitcoin and Gold belong to different asset types and a comparison between them is like a comparison for fun and for impression. They're different in many specifications, not only in Portability.

The bullish case for Bitcoin is a good book, but the link is for an article on Medium, in which there are a table about Bitcoin, Gold, and Fiat in some specifications: Durable, Portable, Fungible, Verifiable, Divisible, Scarce, Established history, Censorship resistant.

Bitcoin is the best in that comparative table, but Gold has its strength in some specifications and you can choose Bitcoin or Gold depends on what specifications are your main concerns.

Bitcoin is portable, while Gold is not. This is one of the main advantages of holding BTC. You can carry millions of dollars' worth of BTC hidden in plain sight. It can be on a small piece of paper, a microSD card, a small usb drive, or even an implant. You can't do that with Gold. Between storage and transporation fees, carrying large amounts of Gold across the world becomes utterly-expensive and inconvenient. Besides, Bitcoin has a predictable/fixed supply. Everybody knows there will only be 21m BTC. But no one knows the exact amount of Gold in existence.

Last time I've checked, China discovered a large Gold deposit. Guess which one of the aformentioned assets is rarer? Bitcoin. I'm certain it will go higher than Gold (market cap) in the future. This is just the beginning. Who knows? Maybe Gold will end up being an industrial metal than a store of value. It'll be just like copper, and the others. Just buy and "hodl" more Bitcoin to become filthy rich in the long run.

The verifiability aspect is so much more important than some people understand I think. If a country is running on gold reserves as support of their fiat currency, nobody in the world can actually verify whether the gold they claim to have in storage is really there. Yes some people can get appointed and do an audit, but once you receive the audit, it is worth as much as the promise given by the government. Nobody can walk into the holy storage halls of a government and verify for themselves whether the gold is there not. But if we assume that some people could, it would still be uncertain for everyone who couldn't.

Now extend this idea of verifiability across boarders when it comes international currency trade and exchange rates. Nobody can ever know what they are trusting in. That is why countries buying currency reserves from other countries (like the Swiss Franc) mostly rely on what they can superficially see and assess. As Switzerland is mostly in the financial sector and has a sold economy, other governments buy Swiss Francs.

Bitcoin reserves and bitcoin price can be verified by everyone at every second from everywhere with the lowest key technical equipment. And if they can't do it themselves, someone in the neighborhood can do it for you without faking anything, so no trust involved. Just facts.

Bitcoin is highly liquid. The days will come when banks ask for financial solidity and will accept if someone holds bitcoin. People will be able to use it as collateral via smart contracts with banks. Would they rather take a piece of art or BTC? Of course BTC because it can be independently evaluated, is highly liquid and mobile, does not require third party trust like a notary because the blockchain can do the handling. It is all verifiable, contractual terms can't be changed retrospectively, and so on and so forth.

Verifiability is a big one!

People like to compare bitcoin and gold because bitcoin was largely designed around several of the premises of gold as sound money, yet bitcoin was designed in such a way to be even more sound money than gold with storage of value and peer to peer transaction, and bitcoin has both.  Surely, also bitcoin does not have the same kinds of third-party costs and obstacles as gold, and the fact of the matter is that many of us have likely come to understand that bitcoin is not only better than gold in a lot of aspects, and that bitcoin is likely in the ballpark of 1,000x or more better than gold in terms of various aspects of bitcoin's monetary qualities, so not only the scarcity of bitcoin, but also the verifiability, transportability, divisibility and the lack of dependency on third parties that end involving extra costs and even security issues. 

Surely there are aspects of financial sovereignty that can take place when there is authority over one's own money and value, and gold is not completely lacking in such qualities, since both gold and bitcoin are bearer instruments, but there still can be questions in regards to with whom any of us might be able to transact.

Currently, in terms of price, bitcoin is about 1/10th the market cap of gold, and so if it were to get to 1,000x gold's market cap, then that is about a 10,000x price adjustment with either bitcoin going up or gold coming down or both... and so getting to gold's parity in market cap could happen this cycle or it may take a bit of time, such as even another cycle or two (yet I have my doubts it would take a couple of cycles to reach mere parity with gold), and as others have said one thing is to reach bitcoin/gold parity, yet another thing is to sustain such parity... and then maybe getting to 10x higher than gold might not even be that difficult as compared with bitcoin potentially becoming way less volatile (relatively speaking) as compared to today when in the future bitcoin might be bouncing around and going from 10x of gold's market cap to 1,000x gold's market cap, which also could take 50-200 years to achieve.

There are likely going to continue to be battles along the way, since status quo rich probably do not appreciate their value being transferred into bitcoin, which has been happening in the past 10 years and is likely going to continue to happen at a considerably increasing rate.. the transfer of wealth from the no coiners to the coiners, and even ongoing and various confusions along the way in regards to figuring out what asset(s)/ currencies are more valuable, while at the same time people are figuring it out and are going to continue to figure out that bitcoin is the place to keep their value or to gravitate their own value into bitcoin in line with Gresham's law kinds of principles, even if most normies have no clue about what is Gresham's law, they still likely realize to spend their less valuable assets/currencies first.

Eith time it is quite likely that the value of gold and other monetized assets are going to flow (get sucked) into bitcoin, and right now the world has close to 1 quadrillion of monetized assets/currencies/commodities,^** and surely bitcoin would then have a current addressable market that is close to 1 quadrillion, since bitcoin is likely the most efficient, the best and the most sound of the monetary assets, so value is going to continue to flow into bitcoin, even though it could take 50-200 years for the fuller sense of monetization to flow into bitcoin.  

If we are referring to gradually and then suddenly, surely it can take some time for adoption and growth to continue to build and it might not even be very noticeable when the growth of bitcoin is going from its current state of less than 1% of the monetized world assets and then it gets to higher and higher levels of monetization.. since bitcoin is the most efficient and the strongest of the monetized assets/currencies, so people are going to realize that it is better to put value into bitcoin rather than other places that they had been keeping their value.

Bitcoin is not only gold 2.0.. but it is gold at about a 1,000x multiple.. people are catching on. and anyone still deluded into believing that bitcoin and gold are different or that they each have their own space or that there is some kind of a need to keep both, then sure they can have fun staying poor...It is not like I am wishing these kinds of conditions rather than just describing where the world is going in terms of bitcoin ongoingly eating gold's lunch and going to continue to eat gold's lunch, including eating the lunch of the various (multiple) other less efficient storage of value assets and monies.  If you are merely thinking about bitcoin/gold parity, then you are surely thinking small potatoes and don't even realize what bitcoin is...which is fine.. just go study it a bit more.. or buy/stack some in case it catches on.

**In 2021, Jesse Meyers had proclaimed that the total addressable market was $900 trillion, but I think that $1 quadrillion is easier to work with as a nice round number.  Here is a quote from a November 2021 Bitcoin magazine article and it has Luke Mikic's name, even though I think that the purported moon math comes from Jesse Meyers.. here it is:

>>>>"Moon Math: Bitcoin’s Total Addressable Market?
Let’s analyse just how easy it would be to send bitcoin on a meteoric rise that breaks all models. First, let’s ask ourselves: What is Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM)?
$12 trillion gold market
$250 trillion real estate market
$300 trillion global debt
$90 trillion global equity market
$100 trillion fiat
$100 trillion bond market ($18 trillion being negative yielding)
$1 quadrillion derivatives market
There's currently $900 trillion of total money and debt in the world when you ignore the derivatives market. Let’s move forward on the assumption that BTC is the next evolution of money and acts as a black hole that'll suck in all value (which it will), if we move onto a BTC standard."<<<<<<<

They are different products and I don't see the reason people always like comparing the two because gold is older than bitcoin and have been used for transaction even before bitcoin was invested so they see the reason why they should compare the two and if you want to even compare what investment people will choose when it comes to trust people will  definitely go for gold because they believe so much in gold just because gold have exited for long and it is usually a bar if not for the invention of the digital gold. and young people have chosen their own part which is bitcoin and just the way gold is accepted everywhere the same way that bitcoin is also accepted everywhere. they have similarities. I know majority of young people don't have business with gold and I am very sure that older people still prefer to invest in gold than in bitcoin all is because of the understanding they have.

Gold might become outdated in the future. Especially if the world transitions into the digital realm. Gold will be seen as a utility metal than a store of value. Just like what's been happening to Silver these days. Bitcoin will eventually surpass Gold's market cap due to the many benefits it provides. Besides scarcity, Bitcoin is portable, decentralized, and much harder (if not impossible) to confiscate. "Wall Street" is already heavily-invested in BTC.

With BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink showing huge interest in BTC ETFs, demand for Gold will diminish over time. Just you wait and see. There's no denying that spot BTC ETFs are better-performing than Gold ETFs. Would you imagine governments backing their currencies with BTC? It would be completely mind-blowing.

Can we just stop pretending been used over and over again. The last time I checked, Trump is Elon guy and they both like each other because those two have many in common and the most common one is lie. Elon said a lot about Tesla been this and that for Bitcoin but not even a half year before they change their mind and dump that volume on the market and then later gave some unreasonable excuses about Bitcoin and his company concerns.

Now, we are using Trump as a catalyst for growth? Like how is Trump doing that, he isn't the only person in government. Let's even assume they both most Bitcoin from the market as reserve, don't you think they are going to be the driving force for market to be pump and will control it own their own way because they wouldn't want their reserve to be toy with, US government is more smart than this.

It’s going to take a significant amount of time unless the US buys a shit load of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve or something (rumours this week Trump would do that but I need to see that to believe that). Otherwise it may take 10-15 years or more.

Looking at the growth rate of Bitcoin and the fact that it has a limited supply, for it to have come this far in a relatively short period shows that it can overtake gold in market capitalization, but I don't believe that's the goal. The goal is to be able to use Bitcoin whenever and wherever. I don't really care if the market cap or Bitcoin is 50th on the list as long as I'll be able to own, sell or use it at any time without it being a crime or a violation of any federal laws.

Gold has been here forever, so I don't expect Bitcoin to overtake its market cap that easily, plus gold is more widely accepted compared to Bitcoin. Governments have reserves in gold but are against bitcoin, so getting bitcoin to have come this far despite that, is a win. Also looking at the prices of both assets, you can see that there's a shit tone of gold in circulation for it to have that market cap, unlike bitcoin.

I like the optimistic thoughts and expectations about the future of BTC and the possibility that BTC cap can surpass Gold cap in the future.

BTC is a special asset and has only existed for about 15 years, our understanding of BTC is still very limited and anything can happen in the future. If BTC continues to grow well, gain investor interest and be talked about by top politicians, I believe BTC could actually surpass Gold, at some point in the future .

Perhaps it is time that humanity has accepted the use of a new currency in the internet age, and national reserves will include both BTC and Gold. I still believe that with a history of thousands of years, Gold will still have a place in the economy.

With how fast BTC's market price went up since its inception, anything's possible. My guess is that once BTC surpasses Gold in market cap, investors will ditch the latter for good. Gold will only be used for jewelry in the future, while BTC will be used as both a store of value and a currency for day-to-day payments.

It's crazy to think how something that grew out of the minds of libertarians, and cypherpunks alike, turned into something serious for mainstream use a few years later. BTC's only 15 years old and has achieved a lot within such a short amount of time. It took Gold centuries to get to the point where it is right now. Exciting times ahead for BTC holders.

As of 2024, about 39% of the existing 212,000 metric tons, or about 82700 metric tons, of gold are held by central banks and by investors. This is the portion that Bitcoin could replace, and it is currently worth about $5.4 trillion USD.

So, a bitcoin would have to be worth about $270,000 USD in order to match gold. Actually, the number is higher because much of the gold jewelry in the world is also used as an investment.

I guess that's because people aren't used to intangible money yet. They prefer investing in physical assets they can touch and hold on their own. Give it some time and you'll see BTC surpassing Gold in market cap. We're still early to the game (despite Bitcoin's recent surge in popularity). The cryptocurrency doesn't even have a large share of the global GDP. It's just starting to blossom.

There are a few things that need to be addressed before BTC can reach the world. That is limited internet access, and low on-chain transaction throughput. Once those issues are solved, Bitcoin's market dominance will be a lot higher in the future (thus surpassing Gold in market cap). Just buy, "hodl", and forget about the rest.

Quite an optimistic and somewhat biased assessment towards bitcoin, but not surprising since we are on a forum and we are all bitcoin investors. But if evaluated fairly and for bitcoin's capitalization to surpass gold, I think it will be a very long road and not as simple as what you say. Bitcoin also has its disadvantages and it is not perfect as you say. If it truly outperforms gold and real estate in every way, why is it still considered a speculative asset with high volatility?

The capitalization of gold is more than 10 trillion dollars and that is not a small number, to overcome that is not as easy as we imagine.

Despite bitcoin being dubbed as the digital gold, they are both distinct investments. There is a decent chance that bitcoin exceeds gold and it is only a matter of time before we see it happen. More and more people are getting into bitcoin especially now with the involvement of ETFs it might even increase the price up more.

Gold had its own time and now is bitcoin’s. Gold will always be there and I think bitcoin will be as well. It is just that in today’s modern world, bitcoin is much preferred for a lot of us.

It is inevitable that Bitcoin largely replaces Gold as the world's store of value asset. And of course Bitcoin is so much more because it is also a usable currency. It will likely also replace some other investments where the goal is not to generate income. There are many trillions of dollars of those sorts of investments outside of Gold, and Bitcoin will eventually take over a large chunk of them because its simply better in numerous ways.

For example, there are fancy apartment buildings in New York worth millions of dollars each that nobody lives in but are bought buy wealthy foreigners (I want to say these are popular with Russians) who want a store of value asset that is outside the reach of their government. But bitcoin would be a far better choice for numerous reasons that buying an empty apartment. Same with buying up land that isn't being rented out simply to store value. And stocks that don't pay a dividend. A good amount of this wealth will eventually flow to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's potential market cap once it is fully mature (maybe by end of this century) is probably 3-5x Gold's current market cap. It might take like 3 decades for Bitcoin to pass Gold, but I don't think there is any doubt that it will happen, and Bitcoin will move far passed it.

How can Bitcoin improve a country's economy? Additionally, just because it offers higher returns than gold does not mean it is a better investment than gold. If it is really better than gold, why haven't many people invested in bitcoin so far and bitcoin's capitalization is only 1/10 of gold's capitalization?

In my opinion, both are good investments and have their own pros and cons. And to know which is the better investment, we need to have realistic assessments and, depending on each person's investment needs, know which is a good investment for us.

Of course. Bitcoin can live alongside Gold for generations. There's no need to replace it. But I get that many Bitcoiners (myself included) want to fight Gold, especially when it can be confiscated by governments at will. Besides that, the "yellow metal" lacks portability. You can carry lots of money in BTC without the "bulk". Your BTC can only be confiscated if you keep it in a centralized exchange or custodial wallet.

Self-custody is the key to long-term preservation of your funds. Yet, BTC has limited transaction capacity and high volatility. You'd need to outweight the pros/cons between both assets to help determine what's best for you. The pioneer cryptocurrency went from $0 to $68k in just a few years, so it's very likely it will surpass Gold's market cap in the future. Anything's possible in crypto land, right?

At the present circumstances I don't think Bitcoin will breach the gold capitalization and to be honest it doesn't have to breach gold capitalization because the reason for invention of Bitcoin was to be used as a decentralized P2P transfer without third party involvement but now everyone are using it as an investment medium so it doesn't make sense comparing Bitcoin with gold and I would say we cannot compare gold with any other asset as gold has been used for centuries and will continue to be used and hold significant market share. Yes Bitcoin can cross capitalization of big orgs easily.

Which one is better depends on your risk tolerance investment strategy how much capital you have to use and how much you can tolerate losing. Bitcoin is better than gold It is a better investment than gold. I think BTC investment is more profitable than gold even if the price of gold increases it is linked to the country's economy but BTC investment does not affect anyone. Even though the country's economy is bad bitcoin prices continue to rise. Investing in bitcoin can improve the country's economy. The gold market is highly dependent on the performance of the cryptocurrency market.

Don't forget that gold is older than BTC and before the BTC will be coming close to such years, BTC will be more popular than gold which we can see the results in different countries that adopted BTC to enable their youths to have potential skills that will improve their progress in the country.

I have never tested gold investment and, I will never invest my money on gold because BTC investment is still more profitable than gold and I will continue to make BTC my choice because I have the skills.

BTC is considered digital gold and many investors consider BTC as gold in the crypto market. The comparison of BTC to gold in terms of utility and value has always existed.

I just want to compare a bit and make a hypothesis about the possibility of BTC cap catching up with Gold cap. I don't think BTC can replace Gold, both BTC and Gold will exist together as highly valuable assets of the economy.

At this time, BTC Spot ETF is competing for cash flow with stocks in the stock market, including Gold Spot ETF 

I think it doesn't like what you think, it's not really a fight, but people want to know if Bitcoin can become the most trusted asset or not because if the market cap is really high, it means people trust that asset over the others.

The real Bitcoin's enemies are fiat, banks, governments and shitcoins, while the other isn't an enemy, they're not competing or hurt Bitcoin.

Bitcoin had reached more than a trillion capitalization meaning with 13.5 trillion capitalization of Gold then we are at least a thousand percent below but with the capacity of bitcoin to increase each value each year? and also gold being mined and there are only fewer reserve under the earth ? i think bitcoin can cope up but of course will take time before happening.
I believe it can break not in this year and not in the soonest , but at least before the years double from 13 years now to 20 years atleast of celebration .

Why do we still want to fight with Gold? I don't understand it. We should be fighting with stocks and get those investors after beating them in their favorite stock. They are going to be more interested in a technology rather than those who do not know how to use a computer and are still stuck with Gold. Completely useless battle to fight.

There's some articles talking about this very question and a lot of them are pretty speculatory so it's difficult to say with a certainty that they're going to be the real thing, the asking price of the articles and they all seem to say the same thing is that bitcoin needs to be priced at 700k USD if they want to see it get to that point that bitcoin's more valuable than gold. 700k USD is such a really large number and I don't think that we can ever fathom what event or situation could create such an overwhelming price increase, it's definitely a big deal whatever that situation is and if there's a speculation and hopes by many that it will reach to that, I don't think that it's a good idea to still be doubting the potential that bitcoin will ever have, bitcoin has surpassed silver already right?

The fee you're going to pay will depend on how congested the Bitcoin blockchain is. It's not fixed at $3. It could be a lot higher if there's a resurgence in network activity. Altcoins (although many are centralized) are a much cheaper option than the LN (when taking into consideration paying a one-time fee on the BTC blockchain). Besides, the L2 network isn't ready for mainstream use. It's full of bugs. If the LN experiences an outage or collapses, you can say "bye-bye" to your sats for good.

Things aside, I think it's possible Bitcoin will reach Gold's market cap. Especially when a lot of prominent institutional investment firms are showing huge interest in it. I'd say we are still early to the game. Once BTC "explodes", market prices will be a lot higher than what they are right now. Perhaps, it will replace Gold in the future?

Please don't suggest people use silly altcoins for payments instead of Bitcoin. With LN you pay a fee once, and not even high as you suggest, like $3 maybe, and then you can transact all you want for like less than a cent per transaction. Altcoins are not even money they are just centralized tokens, so you really can't compare them to using Bitcoin. The answer to bitcoin fees being a few dollars is never "use an altcoin", but rather "use L2". Just as if someone doesn't take cash the answer isn't "use shells", but rather "use a credit card".

The Lightning Network "works", but you still need to pay a high on-chain fee to open/close a channel (although this is a one-time payment). It seems that you can't avoid high fees on BTC. Either wait until fees go down, or switch to an altcoin with lower network congestion. Because of Bitcoin's current state, we cannot use it as "digital cash". It's only suitable as a store of value (or "digital Gold"). Investors are now considering BTC as the most likely successor of Gold in the future.

I would've wished the majority considered BTC as the successor of existing Fiat currencies subject to corruption and manipulation. With spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC, it should only be a matter of time before the BTC surpasses Gold in market cap. The question is: Are you buying and "hodling" the coin?

   Bitcoin is usually compared to Gold because  of its essential ways and qualities which makes it to be a strong store value especially when it is very small in supply, Bitcoin is good in every aspect because of its digital network,as a store value,medium of exchange,easy to secure and transport and can be used to pay for goods and services. Nevermind we believe that Bitcoin will catch up with Gold, for now Gold has a bigger market cap than Bitcoin,the good chance for advancement to put aside the rare metal area in portfolios can chase the Bitcoin amount to increase.

Why?

Bitcoin is not a corporation, despite the CEO of Bitcoin memes.

Nobody actually does anything to increase Bitcoin's valuation, except for buying and selling it.

We already have a way to deal with a highly deflated price of Bitcoin and that is the Lightning Network (and not everyone likes it, but it does the job well).

Teaching people how to use it properly will be a problem though. Especially the whole thing about adding channels before you can send or receive anything from them.

I love that the op's post is very detailed, provides a lot of useful info and is based on several sources. We're very far from the required price and capitalization to beat gold, so it's important to be realistic about it. I do believe that $678k per Bitcoin is a possibility, but not something that will happen in the near future. The last bull market brought a 3x multiplier, so, if the multiplier doesn't get smaller, we'd need 4-5 bull markets for the price to get to that point. Considering the long bear markets and an average 4-year cycle, that means we need 15–20 years to get there. But that's not all because, in the meantime, gold can also increase its value, so Bitcoin would get the where gold used to be as of 2024. Fully catching up is not something I consider impossible, but it can take several decades, I believe.

This might happen but we're far from it. I'm not taking away this possibility, though. As an asset, Bitcoin somehow mimics gold. Bitcoin has been touted as the digital gold by many people, including those who have long been playing in the world of finance. Just like gold, Bitcoin is an asset that has high stock to flow ratio. Gold can be considered scarce, but Bitcoin is way scarcer. As a matter of fact, it will stop producing new supply at some point.

Therefore, considering that Bitcoin is better than gold in more ways than one, it would be logical to expect that its market cap will one day catch up. But that might take decades.

It's one thing for Bitcoin to reach the marketcap of gold, or really any other milestone, and a different thing to actually hold it. In the past there was a huge difference between the ATH and an average price of a period before or after that. We could witness Bitcoin temporarily reaching marketcap of gold in the next 10 years, but seeing it holding that level is something that's not likely to happen soon.

It's easy to say that Bitcoin can easily double, tripple and quadruple in price because it did so in the past, but this growth rate will sooner or later end, nothing can go only up and up at a fast rate infinitely.

We don't know that it might be sooner for bitcoin to catch up with gold in capitalization since bitcoin is very much accessible than gold and that's my opinion about it but anyway, there's no point in comparing the two assets because the two is far different from each other. Gold can be used to display in public where people can see you have gold and I think bitcoin can also be displayed in public like using a material to make it shape the same as BTC logo or even your wallet address ( a wallet address that is not your main if you are concerned about your privacy although gold is much better in that aspect). Also, bitcoin already outshine the gold in market value if we talked about value but the OP is about conversion of btc to capital and not it's market value.

you think there are no altcoins with more then a trillion coins/tokens in circulation....

https://in.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/prices-highest-supply
arbdogeAI 174.4 quadrillion tokens

Why do you want to compare Bitcoin capitalization with gold capitalization exactly? Before you ask this question, you should keep in mind that bitcoin and gold aren't the same thing. Gold has been mined continuously, and there are no limits. But Bitcoin has a limit; some days it will be ended. Gold is from nature, and it won't end. So gold capitalization will increase day by day. Though Bitcoin capitalization has also been increasing, it depends on price movements only. So we can't forecast when Bitcoin could surpass gold capitalization. 

I was having a conversation with a good buddy about this just a day or two ago.  I've also been preaching about this topic for about a decade at this point...bitcoin and gold are far from the same thing, lumping the two together really just doesn't make sense.  Gold is used for a lot of "real world" things such as for electronics, automobiles and jewelry.  It's a precious metal, where bitcoin is an electronic payment system.  Comparing the two or expecting bitcoin to catch up with golds "capitalization" I think just shows how too many people still see bitcoin as a gold replacement, which it's just not.

You have made a good analysis here, I liked this information, this has made me realize how much gold has been made or discovered from 2010 to now, which means the gold supply is not limited by what most people used to say, I don't agree on this fact that's because the price volatility of BTC and Gold has huge difference, for example, this fact.
While if we at see BTC price, it is insane. It gives people more profit than gold, it's the best asset to store the value, even if it's highly volatile, but in the long run, it gives you more profit than holding your money in Gold. Well, we were talking about the market cap of Gold which is around $13+ trillion while of BTC as of today is around $1.09 Trillion. That solves one thing why Gold has a huge market cap while BTC doesn't (due to supply). And that's not limited to Gold.

Compared to bitcoin, gold is inferior as a hedge against inflation. Gold allows you to “freeze” money at the current stage, while bitcoin, due to its growth in value at each new cycle, allows you to increasingly outpace inflation, which, by the way, is also progressing.

Or at least firmly entrenched in the position of an alternative store of value.

There is undoubtedly uncertainty, but one cannot help but notice that bitcoin is gradually moving in that direction (to surpassing).


It will be almost impossible to combine in bitcoin both a payment method and a savings method at the same time. These are completely different functions.


- Yes.
- There is too little data that can change to give an accurate forecast.
- As soon as we wait for this, then we will know.

With institutional investors in the game, it should only be a matter of time before BTC surpasses Gold in market cap. It's not a question of "IF", but rather "WHEN". I believe it will take a couple of years before this happens. You can increase your odds of striking it rich if you buy and hold BTC today.

The "yellow metal" (Gold) has often been trusted for centuries, so it's hard to imagine it will lose traction in the future. It will co-exist with Bitcoin for generations. Even Gold is being "tokenized" on the Blockchain with the introduction of RWAs such as Paxos Gold and Tether Gold. Exciting times ahead for both assets (BTC and AU). Just my thoughts

Yes, I think that Bitcoin can surpass the gold market capitalization in future not only surpassing it but it has the potential to reach 2x the capitalization that gold has. It's not going to happen within 4 years but I'm sure in a decade or two from now we may see Bitcoin surpassing market capitalization of gold or even reaching it's 2x capitalization by then.

If that happens then surely it will be a very good thing for Bitcoin. Bitcoin will be accepted all over the world if that happens and no country would pose ban or any restrictions on Bitcoin and its trading. By then if cash exists then people will directly purchase Bitcoin with cash because it will be widely available in each city and town. All online and offline services will accept Bitcoin as a payment method and people will give it more priority over other payment methods.

uhh Bitcoin will be worth hundreds of thousands this decade and next decade, and almost certainly leave that range for the millions in the 2040s, not in a century or two.

In a hundred or two hundred years from now, assuming something doesn't happen to make bitcoin stop its growth and reverse course, Bitcoin will definitely be worth tens of millions of dollars. There is no doubt about that.


Some math for you:

100 years of let's say 3% inflation, with no actual real value growth for Bitcoin's value, from $50k would take Bitcoin to $960k. That's just inflation, 2024 $50k = $960k in 2124 with 3% annual inflation. With just 11x real price growth (which is likely in the next 15 years, not 100 years) Bitcoin would be worth $10.5 million. Definitely Bitcoin will be worth in the tens of millions of dollars in 2124, and the hundreds of millions of dollars in 2224. The thing is that the Dollar will be nearly worthless compared to today.

If anyone could do that there would be tons of quadrillion dollar companies and cryptocurrencies. Instead of anyone being able to do these things, nobody has ever done these things.

There's only 1 trillion dollar cryptocurrency, only 7 trillion dollar companies, the highest being 3 trillion, a mere 0.003 of a quadrillion that according to you anyone could do.

Market caps represent the total value of an asset's supply. It's important to know for what it is. It's why we know that Bitcoin is more valuable than a random altcoin. People who don't understand what a market cap is would think that BCH is worth more than SOL because the price is higher, or they are the type of people who think its better to buy some random altcoin than Bitcoin because the altcoin is priced at a fraction of a cent while Bitcoin "costs too much" in the tens of thousands of dollars, and they don't realize nobody cares about the tiny market cap altcoin while Bitcoin is a major trillion dollar asset.

No doubt that Bitcoin can reach the capital amount of gold on this timeline, and even Bitcoin has a chance to win over the gold in this capitalization race. I'm quite curious when it can reach this level most people may predict in this cycle which may sound unrealistic for the rest let's leave it to the time.

For Bitcoin now, I think it's losing its worth as a payment mode due to time to time network cost issues, on the same time people are also now considering Bitcoin as a Liquid gold which gives an indication that people just want Bitcoin to be an asset class not a pehyment mode.

The people will soon realized the difference between a centralized asset and a decentralized one, this is one of the advantage one that can get with Bitcoin adoption, you don't need permission or access from any central authority to be able to invest and hold bitcoin as you can have with gold, the reason that gold is being centralized alone will convince people not to make an investment in gold as the stand to understand the difference privacy, rate, interest and security measures required for gold and which is nothing to bother with bitcoin investment.

Bitcoin could potentially outshine gold in market value because of its limited supply and increasing popularity. When this might happen is anyone's guess, depending on things like regulations, technology improvements and overall economic vibes. Whether it's good for Bitcoin is a mixed bag because some see it as a cool validation while others worry about more rules and market ups and downs. It's a wild ride with no clear answers

Its not only "can Bitcoin surpass gold" [/i]but "should it?". Compared to gold, Bitcoin is like lightning to a lantern's steady illumination. Both contribute to the economy. Bitcoin, 7.1% of gold's market worth, faces a steep climb.

I doubt yet hope for the future. If Bitcoin caught up by 2040, it would require a massive market change and a global reevaluation of "worth".

Will Bitcoin benefit if that happens? A double-edged sword. Obtaining such a status would demonstrate Bitcoin's robustness and acceptance. It might change Bitcoin's status in the economy from currency to reserve asset. This transition may challenge its original function yet leave a digital legacy.

My bet would be around 2030, in a couple cycles, but we will see

And I don't know why we really need to surpassed gold by the way? It is for bragging rights? What significant it can bring to the market anyways? Both are different, only comparison is that both assets are scarce, but after that? I don't know. I don't think that it will be beneficial to surpassed big companies. For sure, we have broken already in the top 10 as we are in bullish momentum specially in the next 2 years.


https://coinmarketcap.com/largest-companies/

But after that when we go back to bear market, market capitalization will obviously go down. So for me, let the market go on it's own course, and no need to compare it to other assets of market value. It will be different as our market is very volatile.

1. I don't see any valid reason why Bitcoin can't surpass Gold?

2. No one can know about that, but it will takes a lot time, at least a decade.

3. Nope, even though Bitcoin isn't yet become the best investment for Average Joe, but government already try to regulate Bitcoin and tightening the laws about Bitcoin. There was a proposal issued by FinCEN to declare any form of privacy methods are illegal, this will force people to lose their privacy.

Some people invest in Bitcoin because the value keep increasing and they can protect their privacy, this could make people to convert their Bitcoin to Monero.

I got data if the gold reserves but for 2021, I am trying to find the latest data has not found. At the end of 2021, it is estimated that 208,874 metric tons of gold already exist. Excluding the unprocessed (in the ground). It is estimated that the current Gold Market Capitalization is around $13,464 T. This capitalization will continue to change as gold mining in the world continues. ^[1]

Other data I got in USD

If you look at this graph, of course, the current capitalization of Bitcoin is very far from gold. But if you look at the increase in capitalization of Gold they rose from increased from about 8k trillion to about 14k trillion US dollars. Whereas Bitcoin was about 1 billion US dollars in 2013 to 1.15 trillion US dollars in November 2021 and the decline for now is around 865 billion.^[2]  There is a difference of about 10 times. If calculated in ATH speculation in 4 years calculated with the supply in circulation it is confusing. LOL. I don't think so in the near future, maybe I'll estimate when I retire from work. CMIIW

1] https://companiesmarketcap.com/gold/marketcap/
2] https://ingoldwetrust.report/chart-gold-bitcoin-marketcap/?lang=en

Yes, but that's like when people wonder if the price will get to $1M, it will get there, but it will take time. On the specific case of overtaking gold I estimate it will take about 3 cycles.


I find the question too simple to be honest. "Good" or "bad" are words that children use because they are not capable of using more complex expressions. If I have to choose between those two so simple, well obviously it will be good, especially for those of us who have Bitcoin, because the purchasing power will have increased a lot.

1. Knowing that Bitcoin is superior to gold in literally all ways besides the bling-bling factor of looking rich in public, of course. If anything, since bitcoin will be far more accessible to people and the fact that it's far easier to store, then I'd argue far higher than gold's marketcap.

2. 5 years:   30% chance
    10 years: 70% chance
    20 years: 90% chance

    ^in my opinion.

3. Of course it is lol.

I'm not pessimistic but it might not happen within anybody's lifetime here. Gold has already established its value for thousands of years. Even after gold has vacated its throne as a currency, central banks are still keeping hoards of gold in their vaults. Gold will always have value. Even outside the realm of money, economics, and finance, gold will remain to be valuable as technologies are using it. Outside technologies, gold is also sought after by jewelers.

But if it happens a hundred years or two from now, it must of course be good for Bitcoin. Bitcoin must already be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars by then.

Bitcoin has not been priced the way Gold is, so I do not always look at them as competitors the way people do. They also do not have the same importance if not for the people's money that makes them assets. Going forward, a tight race between them is possible, especially this time when Bitcoin is now advancing with the ETF arrangements. If it works it may attract more investors and that will surely increase the market capitalization. But Gold is not growing so much and not reducing so much too, this means that it is somewhat stable. It is slowly increasing and reducing in the market capitalization, and at times, it would have a higher cap that will still be significant. I have loved the sustaining part for so long, nevertheless, it is still holding it above $13T in most cases.

But for Bitcoin, I do not have so much to say about it other than it has a bullish and bearish season, it is highly volatile when it comes to market capitalization and so unstable. Unlike Gold, it can drop multiples of its price and liquidity within 2 years, and it can gain it back pretty fast too, even within just a year. Such an asset is highly unpredictable. Coupled with the age, one can only guess the market capitalization but it may not be able to be consistent about it unlike Gold has maintained it on the high side for long.

1B(1btc=$50k)x2=2B(1btc=$100k)
2Bx2=4B
4Bx2=8B
8Bx2=16B

4 halvings
2024 2028 2032 2036

..
now lets use the 4 ATH of
2025 2029 2033 2037
2.8b(1btc of $140k) in 2025
2.8bx2=5.6b in 2029
5.6bbx2=11.2b in 2033
11.2bx2=22.4b in 2037

https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

Total market cap of gold is more than 13 times higher than Bitcoin market cap. If Bitcoin can have x2 for each halving, it will need about 6 to 7 more halvings to catch gold market cap in 2024.

With this humble expectation (x2 for each halving), it will be achieve in a year of 2064.

If you increase this price expectation from x2 to like x3 in average for future halvings, a target year will be sooner than 2064.

gold went from $1.1k range 13 years ago to $2.2k so in next 13 years might be $3.6k-$4.4k at best.. but bitcoin will in 13 years get 4 more halvings ('24, '28, '32, '36) so bitcoins deflation will outpace fiat..

also gold only went high due to fuel going from $3/gal to $6/gal. fuel to mine gold is coming back down to the $3/gal range so gold can correct down below $2k, so dont expect $4.4k/oz of gold to be a low min.. but a max if inflation continued to 2x over the next 13 years

gold only 2x in 13 year. bitcoin since 2011 has gone $0.30->$50,000(166,666x)

im not suggesting bitcoin is ever going to 166,666x ever again as each halving cycle has seen less and less increments. but bitcoin will healthily outpace inflation

even if each bitcoin cycles ATH only peaks at 2x of last
EG 2025 ATH=$140k
2029 ATH=$280k
2033 ATH=$560k
2037 ATH=$1.12m

the feel of $1.12m will feel like $560k of todays fiat purchasing power(if gold/inflation was to 2x again in next 13 years)

Nothing will change if Bitcoin exceeds gold in terms of market capacity. Some markets are worth more than gold. However, gold will exist, Bitcoin will exist, and the stock market will exist. Bitcoin and gold are two assets that are not related to each other, which means that it is good to invest in Bitcoin and gold to diversify your investment portfolio and Bitcoin will not be a competitor to gold, or if Bitcoin surpasses gold, everyone will abandon gold and invest in Bitcoin.

The assumption that Bitcoin will overtake gold at a price of ~$650k is not correct. With current inflation, the year 2037 will be completely different from 2024, and the value of ~$650k will be completely different from its value in 2037.

not sure why anyone cares about market caps

market caps are not a measure of any real money stored as reserve to then pay out every holder at that $amount
market cap is just a measure of a small/decimal amount of an asset multiplied by asset total count
its never been about money held to reciprocate/fulfil all sells at that price.

there is not $13T of money held to fulfillguarantee all gold
there is not $900b of money held to fulfil/guarantee all btc
there is not $3T of money held to fulfil/guarantee all microsoft shares

market caps are just a unit price * total units
where the price and thus cap can change based on buying or selling just one unit.

anyone can right now create an altcoin with a 1trillion token pre-mine..
sell 0.001 token for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

anyone can right now create company with a 1trillion shares. (metaphorically, though securities commission will have rules)
sell 0.001 shares for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

in the first place, why are we chasing the market performance of gold? why not be grateful that this btc or crypto market 8s already gaining mainstream audience? do remember gold has been with humanity since the beginning of time.
so there's no rush in chasing after the gold market. be grateful that crypto market is getting the adoption of the public and more and more stakeholders are joining in this market. i guess a lot of people already changed their stance towards this market from being labeled as used by fraudsters to being used as legal tender by several governments. you can already see the difference how it evolves thru time.

it is very difficult to speculate this issue because it is very sensitive in my opinion there will be many views between gold and btc owners,
In my opinion, one day Bitcoin will definitely exceed market capacity, because as we know, the value of Bitcoin is getting better every day than gold, but for now we don't need to think about that, now the main thing is how to collect as much BTC as possible and save it, for now. - next session in bitcoin

Gold is currently at about $13.5 trillion. Bitcoin is just under a trillion. Yes it'll happen, but it'll take awhile.

Bitcoin supply is currently 19.6+ million. Since it will take a while to catch Gold, let's just use a future supply of 20.8 million for this calculation. So let's say it there will roughly be 20.8 million bitcoin when it catches Gold. It'll hit 20.8 million in 2035 but I'm just using that supply as a rough estimate.

Gold current value $13.5 trillion divided by 20.8 million bitcoin = ~$650k

Based on that number I would guess the 2036/37 bull run (assuming the four year market cycle hasn't largely faded away by then) would see Bitcoin passing $650k and $13.5 trillion.

But of course, Gold's market cap will likely grow during the next dozen years.

About 1.5% of the total Gold supply is mined on average on an annual basis so per decade there is about 16% growth in Gold supply. And additionally on top of that the price of Gold is likely to continue to go up over the long term by at least a few percent annually on average. So if we think Bitcoin will hit $650k by the end of 2036 (remember halvings are slightly less than four years so if 4 year boom/bust market cycle still exists at that point the halving is gonna be in 2035 and bull run would likely be in 2036, not 2037), well even if Gold's price doesn't move it's supply will increase by about 21% in the next 13 years, putting it at about $16.3 trillion. Now let's add in 13 years of growth let's just assume 4% annual price appreciation and that puts Gold at a market cap of about $27 trillion! Double what it is today!

That means while Bitcoin might pass $13.5 trillion market cap in 2036, it'll still only be half of Gold's market cap. Must better than the <1/13th it is today, but still far off. So it could very well. $27 trillion market cap for the entire 21 million bitcoin would be $1.285 million price for Bitcoin. I would expect Bitcoin to hit that in the 2040s, perhaps in the first half of that decade, but of course Gold should be a bit higher than that by then. So I think it's likely we should expect Bitcoin to not actually pass Gold and become the most valuable single asset on the planet until the late 2040's. I'll go ahead and say by 2050 Bitcoin will have surpassed Gold, and when it'll probably take a price of around $2 million for bitcoin to do it.

Of course if Gold price increases faster than 4%/year, or if it increases more slowly, like say because Bitcoin is eating Gold's use case as the world's primary store of value, then the ultimate flippening could happen well before or well after 2050. For example, in 2049, after 25 years of growth (given 1.5% annual Gold supply increases), if Gold's price increased by 3% annually it will have reached about $41T, but 4% would be $52T, 5% would be $66T. The difference between those on Bitcoin's price would be $1.95 million, $2.476 million, and $3.14 million. And obviously those three prices like represent a decent span of years for Bitcoin. Compounding growth over many years is pretty crazy! So Gold's growth from here on out will have a big effect on how many years it takes Bitcoin to catch it.


Honestly I assumed it would happen in the 2030s, but after writing this up I realize I never accounted for Gold's own growth before, so the Gold flippening won't happen for much longer than I had previous assumed.


One thing that could accelerate Bitcoin's growth and allow it to pass Gold significantly sooner is if at some point in the next 20 years major nations start treating Bitcoin like Gold and hold it as part of their national reserves. Especially if they sell some Gold to replace it with Bitcoin, thus also putting sell pressure on Gold. Nations could easily buy up hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin even when prices are well into the six digits if they decide to future proof their reserves by going with a Gold + Digital Gold mix instead of just Gold.

But 2050 sounds about right to me, without having to try to guess about potential events that totally change the long term trajectory of Bitcoin or Gold's price.

Yes of course it has a chance, once people realise that it's easier to store and easier to transact with it, compared with gold.
But, of course, central banks own a lot of gold, so they have a huge impact on the market. Give it some time and eventually, my opinion is that Bitcoin will surpass gold's capitalization.
I don't think it is so important though. What's more important is to realise that Bitcoin is freedom, in a sense that it allows us to ditch the central banking system that rules the markets. It allows us to transact P2P without needing any authority to act as an intermediary. Bitcoin is a tool, just like cash is a tool. There is no need to speculate. As long as I can buy the same product using the same amount of bitcoin, paying P2P, I am good!
Bitcoin, used as Bitcoin, is better than Bitcoin that can be exchanged for higher amounts of FIAT. That's my opinion of course.

Bitcoin's meteoric rise has sparked comparisons to gold, particularly as a hedge against inflation^[1]. Some even envision it supplanting the precious metal as the ultimate store of value^[2]. However, the path to surpassing gold's market cap of $13.47 trillion remains shrouded in uncertainty^[3-4].


Currently, Bitcoin stands at just 7.1% of that value, requiring a 14-fold increase to bridge the gap and reach $678,000 per unit. While optimists like PlanB predicted a $500,000 price point^[5], even that falls short of dethroning gold.

Historical trends paint a complex picture. While Bitcoin's price momentum seems to be waning compared to traditional indices like the DJIA, it's unclear if this deceleration will persist. Assuming current growth rates, 2028 is the earliest possible date for Bitcoin to reach gold's valuation. However, factoring in potential gold price inflation due to uncontrollable economic factors, the timeline could stretch to 2035-2040.


But surpassing gold might not be the ultimate victory. An exorbitant price could hinder Bitcoin's utility as a payment method, relegating it to government reserves. Perhaps a more achievable and beneficial goal lies in surpassing larger corporations like Microsoft ($3.026 trillion), placing Bitcoin's value at a more accessible $154,000 per unit.

I want to know your opinion:

• Do you think Bitcoin has any chance of catching up and then surpassing Gold in capitalization?
• If so, when in the future might that event take place?
• If this happens, will it be a good thing for Bitcoin?

---

References:
[1] GrayScale: October 2023: Rising demand for Bitcoin as Digital Gold
[2] ‘The Bitcoin Standard’: A review
[3] Gold vs. Bitcoin: Which Is Better?
[4] Top Assets by Market Cap
[5] Bitcoin Will be Scarcer Than Gold After Halving, $500K BTC Price Predicted