Topic: When will Bitcoin catch up with Gold in capitalization? (Read 588 times)

I like the optimistic thoughts and expectations about the future of BTC and the possibility that BTC cap can surpass Gold cap in the future.

BTC is a special asset and has only existed for about 15 years, our understanding of BTC is still very limited and anything can happen in the future. If BTC continues to grow well, gain investor interest and be talked about by top politicians, I believe BTC could actually surpass Gold, at some point in the future .

Perhaps it is time that humanity has accepted the use of a new currency in the internet age, and national reserves will include both BTC and Gold. I still believe that with a history of thousands of years, Gold will still have a place in the economy.

With how fast BTC's market price went up since its inception, anything's possible. My guess is that once BTC surpasses Gold in market cap, investors will ditch the latter for good. Gold will only be used for jewelry in the future, while BTC will be used as both a store of value and a currency for day-to-day payments.

It's crazy to think how something that grew out of the minds of libertarians, and cypherpunks alike, turned into something serious for mainstream use a few years later. BTC's only 15 years old and has achieved a lot within such a short amount of time. It took Gold centuries to get to the point where it is right now. Exciting times ahead for BTC holders.

As of 2024, about 39% of the existing 212,000 metric tons, or about 82700 metric tons, of gold are held by central banks and by investors. This is the portion that Bitcoin could replace, and it is currently worth about $5.4 trillion USD.

So, a bitcoin would have to be worth about $270,000 USD in order to match gold. Actually, the number is higher because much of the gold jewelry in the world is also used as an investment.

I guess that's because people aren't used to intangible money yet. They prefer investing in physical assets they can touch and hold on their own. Give it some time and you'll see BTC surpassing Gold in market cap. We're still early to the game (despite Bitcoin's recent surge in popularity). The cryptocurrency doesn't even have a large share of the global GDP. It's just starting to blossom.

There are a few things that need to be addressed before BTC can reach the world. That is limited internet access, and low on-chain transaction throughput. Once those issues are solved, Bitcoin's market dominance will be a lot higher in the future (thus surpassing Gold in market cap). Just buy, "hodl", and forget about the rest.

Quite an optimistic and somewhat biased assessment towards bitcoin, but not surprising since we are on a forum and we are all bitcoin investors. But if evaluated fairly and for bitcoin's capitalization to surpass gold, I think it will be a very long road and not as simple as what you say. Bitcoin also has its disadvantages and it is not perfect as you say. If it truly outperforms gold and real estate in every way, why is it still considered a speculative asset with high volatility?

The capitalization of gold is more than 10 trillion dollars and that is not a small number, to overcome that is not as easy as we imagine.

Despite bitcoin being dubbed as the digital gold, they are both distinct investments. There is a decent chance that bitcoin exceeds gold and it is only a matter of time before we see it happen. More and more people are getting into bitcoin especially now with the involvement of ETFs it might even increase the price up more.

Gold had its own time and now is bitcoin’s. Gold will always be there and I think bitcoin will be as well. It is just that in today’s modern world, bitcoin is much preferred for a lot of us.

It is inevitable that Bitcoin largely replaces Gold as the world's store of value asset. And of course Bitcoin is so much more because it is also a usable currency. It will likely also replace some other investments where the goal is not to generate income. There are many trillions of dollars of those sorts of investments outside of Gold, and Bitcoin will eventually take over a large chunk of them because its simply better in numerous ways.

For example, there are fancy apartment buildings in New York worth millions of dollars each that nobody lives in but are bought buy wealthy foreigners (I want to say these are popular with Russians) who want a store of value asset that is outside the reach of their government. But bitcoin would be a far better choice for numerous reasons that buying an empty apartment. Same with buying up land that isn't being rented out simply to store value. And stocks that don't pay a dividend. A good amount of this wealth will eventually flow to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's potential market cap once it is fully mature (maybe by end of this century) is probably 3-5x Gold's current market cap. It might take like 3 decades for Bitcoin to pass Gold, but I don't think there is any doubt that it will happen, and Bitcoin will move far passed it.

How can Bitcoin improve a country's economy? Additionally, just because it offers higher returns than gold does not mean it is a better investment than gold. If it is really better than gold, why haven't many people invested in bitcoin so far and bitcoin's capitalization is only 1/10 of gold's capitalization?

In my opinion, both are good investments and have their own pros and cons. And to know which is the better investment, we need to have realistic assessments and, depending on each person's investment needs, know which is a good investment for us.

Of course. Bitcoin can live alongside Gold for generations. There's no need to replace it. But I get that many Bitcoiners (myself included) want to fight Gold, especially when it can be confiscated by governments at will. Besides that, the "yellow metal" lacks portability. You can carry lots of money in BTC without the "bulk". Your BTC can only be confiscated if you keep it in a centralized exchange or custodial wallet.

Self-custody is the key to long-term preservation of your funds. Yet, BTC has limited transaction capacity and high volatility. You'd need to outweight the pros/cons between both assets to help determine what's best for you. The pioneer cryptocurrency went from $0 to $68k in just a few years, so it's very likely it will surpass Gold's market cap in the future. Anything's possible in crypto land, right?

At the present circumstances I don't think Bitcoin will breach the gold capitalization and to be honest it doesn't have to breach gold capitalization because the reason for invention of Bitcoin was to be used as a decentralized P2P transfer without third party involvement but now everyone are using it as an investment medium so it doesn't make sense comparing Bitcoin with gold and I would say we cannot compare gold with any other asset as gold has been used for centuries and will continue to be used and hold significant market share. Yes Bitcoin can cross capitalization of big orgs easily.

Which one is better depends on your risk tolerance investment strategy how much capital you have to use and how much you can tolerate losing. Bitcoin is better than gold It is a better investment than gold. I think BTC investment is more profitable than gold even if the price of gold increases it is linked to the country's economy but BTC investment does not affect anyone. Even though the country's economy is bad bitcoin prices continue to rise. Investing in bitcoin can improve the country's economy. The gold market is highly dependent on the performance of the cryptocurrency market.

Don't forget that gold is older than BTC and before the BTC will be coming close to such years, BTC will be more popular than gold which we can see the results in different countries that adopted BTC to enable their youths to have potential skills that will improve their progress in the country.

I have never tested gold investment and, I will never invest my money on gold because BTC investment is still more profitable than gold and I will continue to make BTC my choice because I have the skills.

BTC is considered digital gold and many investors consider BTC as gold in the crypto market. The comparison of BTC to gold in terms of utility and value has always existed.

I just want to compare a bit and make a hypothesis about the possibility of BTC cap catching up with Gold cap. I don't think BTC can replace Gold, both BTC and Gold will exist together as highly valuable assets of the economy.

At this time, BTC Spot ETF is competing for cash flow with stocks in the stock market, including Gold Spot ETF 

I think it doesn't like what you think, it's not really a fight, but people want to know if Bitcoin can become the most trusted asset or not because if the market cap is really high, it means people trust that asset over the others.

The real Bitcoin's enemies are fiat, banks, governments and shitcoins, while the other isn't an enemy, they're not competing or hurt Bitcoin.

Bitcoin had reached more than a trillion capitalization meaning with 13.5 trillion capitalization of Gold then we are at least a thousand percent below but with the capacity of bitcoin to increase each value each year? and also gold being mined and there are only fewer reserve under the earth ? i think bitcoin can cope up but of course will take time before happening.
I believe it can break not in this year and not in the soonest , but at least before the years double from 13 years now to 20 years atleast of celebration .

Why do we still want to fight with Gold? I don't understand it. We should be fighting with stocks and get those investors after beating them in their favorite stock. They are going to be more interested in a technology rather than those who do not know how to use a computer and are still stuck with Gold. Completely useless battle to fight.

There's some articles talking about this very question and a lot of them are pretty speculatory so it's difficult to say with a certainty that they're going to be the real thing, the asking price of the articles and they all seem to say the same thing is that bitcoin needs to be priced at 700k USD if they want to see it get to that point that bitcoin's more valuable than gold. 700k USD is such a really large number and I don't think that we can ever fathom what event or situation could create such an overwhelming price increase, it's definitely a big deal whatever that situation is and if there's a speculation and hopes by many that it will reach to that, I don't think that it's a good idea to still be doubting the potential that bitcoin will ever have, bitcoin has surpassed silver already right?

The fee you're going to pay will depend on how congested the Bitcoin blockchain is. It's not fixed at $3. It could be a lot higher if there's a resurgence in network activity. Altcoins (although many are centralized) are a much cheaper option than the LN (when taking into consideration paying a one-time fee on the BTC blockchain). Besides, the L2 network isn't ready for mainstream use. It's full of bugs. If the LN experiences an outage or collapses, you can say "bye-bye" to your sats for good.

Things aside, I think it's possible Bitcoin will reach Gold's market cap. Especially when a lot of prominent institutional investment firms are showing huge interest in it. I'd say we are still early to the game. Once BTC "explodes", market prices will be a lot higher than what they are right now. Perhaps, it will replace Gold in the future?

Please don't suggest people use silly altcoins for payments instead of Bitcoin. With LN you pay a fee once, and not even high as you suggest, like $3 maybe, and then you can transact all you want for like less than a cent per transaction. Altcoins are not even money they are just centralized tokens, so you really can't compare them to using Bitcoin. The answer to bitcoin fees being a few dollars is never "use an altcoin", but rather "use L2". Just as if someone doesn't take cash the answer isn't "use shells", but rather "use a credit card".

The Lightning Network "works", but you still need to pay a high on-chain fee to open/close a channel (although this is a one-time payment). It seems that you can't avoid high fees on BTC. Either wait until fees go down, or switch to an altcoin with lower network congestion. Because of Bitcoin's current state, we cannot use it as "digital cash". It's only suitable as a store of value (or "digital Gold"). Investors are now considering BTC as the most likely successor of Gold in the future.

I would've wished the majority considered BTC as the successor of existing Fiat currencies subject to corruption and manipulation. With spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC, it should only be a matter of time before the BTC surpasses Gold in market cap. The question is: Are you buying and "hodling" the coin?

   Bitcoin is usually compared to Gold because  of its essential ways and qualities which makes it to be a strong store value especially when it is very small in supply, Bitcoin is good in every aspect because of its digital network,as a store value,medium of exchange,easy to secure and transport and can be used to pay for goods and services. Nevermind we believe that Bitcoin will catch up with Gold, for now Gold has a bigger market cap than Bitcoin,the good chance for advancement to put aside the rare metal area in portfolios can chase the Bitcoin amount to increase.

Why?

Bitcoin is not a corporation, despite the CEO of Bitcoin memes.

Nobody actually does anything to increase Bitcoin's valuation, except for buying and selling it.

We already have a way to deal with a highly deflated price of Bitcoin and that is the Lightning Network (and not everyone likes it, but it does the job well).

Teaching people how to use it properly will be a problem though. Especially the whole thing about adding channels before you can send or receive anything from them.

I love that the op's post is very detailed, provides a lot of useful info and is based on several sources. We're very far from the required price and capitalization to beat gold, so it's important to be realistic about it. I do believe that $678k per Bitcoin is a possibility, but not something that will happen in the near future. The last bull market brought a 3x multiplier, so, if the multiplier doesn't get smaller, we'd need 4-5 bull markets for the price to get to that point. Considering the long bear markets and an average 4-year cycle, that means we need 15–20 years to get there. But that's not all because, in the meantime, gold can also increase its value, so Bitcoin would get the where gold used to be as of 2024. Fully catching up is not something I consider impossible, but it can take several decades, I believe.

This might happen but we're far from it. I'm not taking away this possibility, though. As an asset, Bitcoin somehow mimics gold. Bitcoin has been touted as the digital gold by many people, including those who have long been playing in the world of finance. Just like gold, Bitcoin is an asset that has high stock to flow ratio. Gold can be considered scarce, but Bitcoin is way scarcer. As a matter of fact, it will stop producing new supply at some point.

Therefore, considering that Bitcoin is better than gold in more ways than one, it would be logical to expect that its market cap will one day catch up. But that might take decades.

It's one thing for Bitcoin to reach the marketcap of gold, or really any other milestone, and a different thing to actually hold it. In the past there was a huge difference between the ATH and an average price of a period before or after that. We could witness Bitcoin temporarily reaching marketcap of gold in the next 10 years, but seeing it holding that level is something that's not likely to happen soon.

It's easy to say that Bitcoin can easily double, tripple and quadruple in price because it did so in the past, but this growth rate will sooner or later end, nothing can go only up and up at a fast rate infinitely.

We don't know that it might be sooner for bitcoin to catch up with gold in capitalization since bitcoin is very much accessible than gold and that's my opinion about it but anyway, there's no point in comparing the two assets because the two is far different from each other. Gold can be used to display in public where people can see you have gold and I think bitcoin can also be displayed in public like using a material to make it shape the same as BTC logo or even your wallet address ( a wallet address that is not your main if you are concerned about your privacy although gold is much better in that aspect). Also, bitcoin already outshine the gold in market value if we talked about value but the OP is about conversion of btc to capital and not it's market value.

you think there are no altcoins with more then a trillion coins/tokens in circulation....

https://in.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/prices-highest-supply
arbdogeAI 174.4 quadrillion tokens

Why do you want to compare Bitcoin capitalization with gold capitalization exactly? Before you ask this question, you should keep in mind that bitcoin and gold aren't the same thing. Gold has been mined continuously, and there are no limits. But Bitcoin has a limit; some days it will be ended. Gold is from nature, and it won't end. So gold capitalization will increase day by day. Though Bitcoin capitalization has also been increasing, it depends on price movements only. So we can't forecast when Bitcoin could surpass gold capitalization. 

I was having a conversation with a good buddy about this just a day or two ago.  I've also been preaching about this topic for about a decade at this point...bitcoin and gold are far from the same thing, lumping the two together really just doesn't make sense.  Gold is used for a lot of "real world" things such as for electronics, automobiles and jewelry.  It's a precious metal, where bitcoin is an electronic payment system.  Comparing the two or expecting bitcoin to catch up with golds "capitalization" I think just shows how too many people still see bitcoin as a gold replacement, which it's just not.

You have made a good analysis here, I liked this information, this has made me realize how much gold has been made or discovered from 2010 to now, which means the gold supply is not limited by what most people used to say, I don't agree on this fact that's because the price volatility of BTC and Gold has huge difference, for example, this fact.
While if we at see BTC price, it is insane. It gives people more profit than gold, it's the best asset to store the value, even if it's highly volatile, but in the long run, it gives you more profit than holding your money in Gold. Well, we were talking about the market cap of Gold which is around $13+ trillion while of BTC as of today is around $1.09 Trillion. That solves one thing why Gold has a huge market cap while BTC doesn't (due to supply). And that's not limited to Gold.

Compared to bitcoin, gold is inferior as a hedge against inflation. Gold allows you to “freeze” money at the current stage, while bitcoin, due to its growth in value at each new cycle, allows you to increasingly outpace inflation, which, by the way, is also progressing.

Or at least firmly entrenched in the position of an alternative store of value.

There is undoubtedly uncertainty, but one cannot help but notice that bitcoin is gradually moving in that direction (to surpassing).


It will be almost impossible to combine in bitcoin both a payment method and a savings method at the same time. These are completely different functions.


- Yes.
- There is too little data that can change to give an accurate forecast.
- As soon as we wait for this, then we will know.

With institutional investors in the game, it should only be a matter of time before BTC surpasses Gold in market cap. It's not a question of "IF", but rather "WHEN". I believe it will take a couple of years before this happens. You can increase your odds of striking it rich if you buy and hold BTC today.

The "yellow metal" (Gold) has often been trusted for centuries, so it's hard to imagine it will lose traction in the future. It will co-exist with Bitcoin for generations. Even Gold is being "tokenized" on the Blockchain with the introduction of RWAs such as Paxos Gold and Tether Gold. Exciting times ahead for both assets (BTC and AU). Just my thoughts

Yes, I think that Bitcoin can surpass the gold market capitalization in future not only surpassing it but it has the potential to reach 2x the capitalization that gold has. It's not going to happen within 4 years but I'm sure in a decade or two from now we may see Bitcoin surpassing market capitalization of gold or even reaching it's 2x capitalization by then.

If that happens then surely it will be a very good thing for Bitcoin. Bitcoin will be accepted all over the world if that happens and no country would pose ban or any restrictions on Bitcoin and its trading. By then if cash exists then people will directly purchase Bitcoin with cash because it will be widely available in each city and town. All online and offline services will accept Bitcoin as a payment method and people will give it more priority over other payment methods.

uhh Bitcoin will be worth hundreds of thousands this decade and next decade, and almost certainly leave that range for the millions in the 2040s, not in a century or two.

In a hundred or two hundred years from now, assuming something doesn't happen to make bitcoin stop its growth and reverse course, Bitcoin will definitely be worth tens of millions of dollars. There is no doubt about that.


Some math for you:

100 years of let's say 3% inflation, with no actual real value growth for Bitcoin's value, from $50k would take Bitcoin to $960k. That's just inflation, 2024 $50k = $960k in 2124 with 3% annual inflation. With just 11x real price growth (which is likely in the next 15 years, not 100 years) Bitcoin would be worth $10.5 million. Definitely Bitcoin will be worth in the tens of millions of dollars in 2124, and the hundreds of millions of dollars in 2224. The thing is that the Dollar will be nearly worthless compared to today.

If anyone could do that there would be tons of quadrillion dollar companies and cryptocurrencies. Instead of anyone being able to do these things, nobody has ever done these things.

There's only 1 trillion dollar cryptocurrency, only 7 trillion dollar companies, the highest being 3 trillion, a mere 0.003 of a quadrillion that according to you anyone could do.

Market caps represent the total value of an asset's supply. It's important to know for what it is. It's why we know that Bitcoin is more valuable than a random altcoin. People who don't understand what a market cap is would think that BCH is worth more than SOL because the price is higher, or they are the type of people who think its better to buy some random altcoin than Bitcoin because the altcoin is priced at a fraction of a cent while Bitcoin "costs too much" in the tens of thousands of dollars, and they don't realize nobody cares about the tiny market cap altcoin while Bitcoin is a major trillion dollar asset.

No doubt that Bitcoin can reach the capital amount of gold on this timeline, and even Bitcoin has a chance to win over the gold in this capitalization race. I'm quite curious when it can reach this level most people may predict in this cycle which may sound unrealistic for the rest let's leave it to the time.

For Bitcoin now, I think it's losing its worth as a payment mode due to time to time network cost issues, on the same time people are also now considering Bitcoin as a Liquid gold which gives an indication that people just want Bitcoin to be an asset class not a pehyment mode.

The people will soon realized the difference between a centralized asset and a decentralized one, this is one of the advantage one that can get with Bitcoin adoption, you don't need permission or access from any central authority to be able to invest and hold bitcoin as you can have with gold, the reason that gold is being centralized alone will convince people not to make an investment in gold as the stand to understand the difference privacy, rate, interest and security measures required for gold and which is nothing to bother with bitcoin investment.

Bitcoin could potentially outshine gold in market value because of its limited supply and increasing popularity. When this might happen is anyone's guess, depending on things like regulations, technology improvements and overall economic vibes. Whether it's good for Bitcoin is a mixed bag because some see it as a cool validation while others worry about more rules and market ups and downs. It's a wild ride with no clear answers

Its not only "can Bitcoin surpass gold" [/i]but "should it?". Compared to gold, Bitcoin is like lightning to a lantern's steady illumination. Both contribute to the economy. Bitcoin, 7.1% of gold's market worth, faces a steep climb.

I doubt yet hope for the future. If Bitcoin caught up by 2040, it would require a massive market change and a global reevaluation of "worth".

Will Bitcoin benefit if that happens? A double-edged sword. Obtaining such a status would demonstrate Bitcoin's robustness and acceptance. It might change Bitcoin's status in the economy from currency to reserve asset. This transition may challenge its original function yet leave a digital legacy.

My bet would be around 2030, in a couple cycles, but we will see

And I don't know why we really need to surpassed gold by the way? It is for bragging rights? What significant it can bring to the market anyways? Both are different, only comparison is that both assets are scarce, but after that? I don't know. I don't think that it will be beneficial to surpassed big companies. For sure, we have broken already in the top 10 as we are in bullish momentum specially in the next 2 years.


https://coinmarketcap.com/largest-companies/

But after that when we go back to bear market, market capitalization will obviously go down. So for me, let the market go on it's own course, and no need to compare it to other assets of market value. It will be different as our market is very volatile.

1. I don't see any valid reason why Bitcoin can't surpass Gold?

2. No one can know about that, but it will takes a lot time, at least a decade.

3. Nope, even though Bitcoin isn't yet become the best investment for Average Joe, but government already try to regulate Bitcoin and tightening the laws about Bitcoin. There was a proposal issued by FinCEN to declare any form of privacy methods are illegal, this will force people to lose their privacy.

Some people invest in Bitcoin because the value keep increasing and they can protect their privacy, this could make people to convert their Bitcoin to Monero.

I got data if the gold reserves but for 2021, I am trying to find the latest data has not found. At the end of 2021, it is estimated that 208,874 metric tons of gold already exist. Excluding the unprocessed (in the ground). It is estimated that the current Gold Market Capitalization is around $13,464 T. This capitalization will continue to change as gold mining in the world continues. ^[1]

Other data I got in USD

If you look at this graph, of course, the current capitalization of Bitcoin is very far from gold. But if you look at the increase in capitalization of Gold they rose from increased from about 8k trillion to about 14k trillion US dollars. Whereas Bitcoin was about 1 billion US dollars in 2013 to 1.15 trillion US dollars in November 2021 and the decline for now is around 865 billion.^[2]  There is a difference of about 10 times. If calculated in ATH speculation in 4 years calculated with the supply in circulation it is confusing. LOL. I don't think so in the near future, maybe I'll estimate when I retire from work. CMIIW

1] https://companiesmarketcap.com/gold/marketcap/
2] https://ingoldwetrust.report/chart-gold-bitcoin-marketcap/?lang=en

Yes, but that's like when people wonder if the price will get to $1M, it will get there, but it will take time. On the specific case of overtaking gold I estimate it will take about 3 cycles.


I find the question too simple to be honest. "Good" or "bad" are words that children use because they are not capable of using more complex expressions. If I have to choose between those two so simple, well obviously it will be good, especially for those of us who have Bitcoin, because the purchasing power will have increased a lot.

1. Knowing that Bitcoin is superior to gold in literally all ways besides the bling-bling factor of looking rich in public, of course. If anything, since bitcoin will be far more accessible to people and the fact that it's far easier to store, then I'd argue far higher than gold's marketcap.

2. 5 years:   30% chance
    10 years: 70% chance
    20 years: 90% chance

    ^in my opinion.

3. Of course it is lol.

I'm not pessimistic but it might not happen within anybody's lifetime here. Gold has already established its value for thousands of years. Even after gold has vacated its throne as a currency, central banks are still keeping hoards of gold in their vaults. Gold will always have value. Even outside the realm of money, economics, and finance, gold will remain to be valuable as technologies are using it. Outside technologies, gold is also sought after by jewelers.

But if it happens a hundred years or two from now, it must of course be good for Bitcoin. Bitcoin must already be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars by then.

Bitcoin has not been priced the way Gold is, so I do not always look at them as competitors the way people do. They also do not have the same importance if not for the people's money that makes them assets. Going forward, a tight race between them is possible, especially this time when Bitcoin is now advancing with the ETF arrangements. If it works it may attract more investors and that will surely increase the market capitalization. But Gold is not growing so much and not reducing so much too, this means that it is somewhat stable. It is slowly increasing and reducing in the market capitalization, and at times, it would have a higher cap that will still be significant. I have loved the sustaining part for so long, nevertheless, it is still holding it above $13T in most cases.

But for Bitcoin, I do not have so much to say about it other than it has a bullish and bearish season, it is highly volatile when it comes to market capitalization and so unstable. Unlike Gold, it can drop multiples of its price and liquidity within 2 years, and it can gain it back pretty fast too, even within just a year. Such an asset is highly unpredictable. Coupled with the age, one can only guess the market capitalization but it may not be able to be consistent about it unlike Gold has maintained it on the high side for long.

1B(1btc=$50k)x2=2B(1btc=$100k)
2Bx2=4B
4Bx2=8B
8Bx2=16B

4 halvings
2024 2028 2032 2036

..
now lets use the 4 ATH of
2025 2029 2033 2037
2.8b(1btc of $140k) in 2025
2.8bx2=5.6b in 2029
5.6bbx2=11.2b in 2033
11.2bx2=22.4b in 2037

https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

Total market cap of gold is more than 13 times higher than Bitcoin market cap. If Bitcoin can have x2 for each halving, it will need about 6 to 7 more halvings to catch gold market cap in 2024.

With this humble expectation (x2 for each halving), it will be achieve in a year of 2064.

If you increase this price expectation from x2 to like x3 in average for future halvings, a target year will be sooner than 2064.

gold went from $1.1k range 13 years ago to $2.2k so in next 13 years might be $3.6k-$4.4k at best.. but bitcoin will in 13 years get 4 more halvings ('24, '28, '32, '36) so bitcoins deflation will outpace fiat..

also gold only went high due to fuel going from $3/gal to $6/gal. fuel to mine gold is coming back down to the $3/gal range so gold can correct down below $2k, so dont expect $4.4k/oz of gold to be a low min.. but a max if inflation continued to 2x over the next 13 years

gold only 2x in 13 year. bitcoin since 2011 has gone $0.30->$50,000(166,666x)

im not suggesting bitcoin is ever going to 166,666x ever again as each halving cycle has seen less and less increments. but bitcoin will healthily outpace inflation

even if each bitcoin cycles ATH only peaks at 2x of last
EG 2025 ATH=$140k
2029 ATH=$280k
2033 ATH=$560k
2037 ATH=$1.12m

the feel of $1.12m will feel like $560k of todays fiat purchasing power(if gold/inflation was to 2x again in next 13 years)

Nothing will change if Bitcoin exceeds gold in terms of market capacity. Some markets are worth more than gold. However, gold will exist, Bitcoin will exist, and the stock market will exist. Bitcoin and gold are two assets that are not related to each other, which means that it is good to invest in Bitcoin and gold to diversify your investment portfolio and Bitcoin will not be a competitor to gold, or if Bitcoin surpasses gold, everyone will abandon gold and invest in Bitcoin.

The assumption that Bitcoin will overtake gold at a price of ~$650k is not correct. With current inflation, the year 2037 will be completely different from 2024, and the value of ~$650k will be completely different from its value in 2037.

not sure why anyone cares about market caps

market caps are not a measure of any real money stored as reserve to then pay out every holder at that $amount
market cap is just a measure of a small/decimal amount of an asset multiplied by asset total count
its never been about money held to reciprocate/fulfil all sells at that price.

there is not $13T of money held to fulfillguarantee all gold
there is not $900b of money held to fulfil/guarantee all btc
there is not $3T of money held to fulfil/guarantee all microsoft shares

market caps are just a unit price * total units
where the price and thus cap can change based on buying or selling just one unit.

anyone can right now create an altcoin with a 1trillion token pre-mine..
sell 0.001 token for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

anyone can right now create company with a 1trillion shares. (metaphorically, though securities commission will have rules)
sell 0.001 shares for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

in the first place, why are we chasing the market performance of gold? why not be grateful that this btc or crypto market 8s already gaining mainstream audience? do remember gold has been with humanity since the beginning of time.
so there's no rush in chasing after the gold market. be grateful that crypto market is getting the adoption of the public and more and more stakeholders are joining in this market. i guess a lot of people already changed their stance towards this market from being labeled as used by fraudsters to being used as legal tender by several governments. you can already see the difference how it evolves thru time.

it is very difficult to speculate this issue because it is very sensitive in my opinion there will be many views between gold and btc owners,
In my opinion, one day Bitcoin will definitely exceed market capacity, because as we know, the value of Bitcoin is getting better every day than gold, but for now we don't need to think about that, now the main thing is how to collect as much BTC as possible and save it, for now. - next session in bitcoin

Gold is currently at about $13.5 trillion. Bitcoin is just under a trillion. Yes it'll happen, but it'll take awhile.

Bitcoin supply is currently 19.6+ million. Since it will take a while to catch Gold, let's just use a future supply of 20.8 million for this calculation. So let's say it there will roughly be 20.8 million bitcoin when it catches Gold. It'll hit 20.8 million in 2035 but I'm just using that supply as a rough estimate.

Gold current value $13.5 trillion divided by 20.8 million bitcoin = ~$650k

Based on that number I would guess the 2036/37 bull run (assuming the four year market cycle hasn't largely faded away by then) would see Bitcoin passing $650k and $13.5 trillion.

But of course, Gold's market cap will likely grow during the next dozen years.

About 1.5% of the total Gold supply is mined on average on an annual basis so per decade there is about 16% growth in Gold supply. And additionally on top of that the price of Gold is likely to continue to go up over the long term by at least a few percent annually on average. So if we think Bitcoin will hit $650k by the end of 2036 (remember halvings are slightly less than four years so if 4 year boom/bust market cycle still exists at that point the halving is gonna be in 2035 and bull run would likely be in 2036, not 2037), well even if Gold's price doesn't move it's supply will increase by about 21% in the next 13 years, putting it at about $16.3 trillion. Now let's add in 13 years of growth let's just assume 4% annual price appreciation and that puts Gold at a market cap of about $27 trillion! Double what it is today!

That means while Bitcoin might pass $13.5 trillion market cap in 2036, it'll still only be half of Gold's market cap. Must better than the <1/13th it is today, but still far off. So it could very well. $27 trillion market cap for the entire 21 million bitcoin would be $1.285 million price for Bitcoin. I would expect Bitcoin to hit that in the 2040s, perhaps in the first half of that decade, but of course Gold should be a bit higher than that by then. So I think it's likely we should expect Bitcoin to not actually pass Gold and become the most valuable single asset on the planet until the late 2040's. I'll go ahead and say by 2050 Bitcoin will have surpassed Gold, and when it'll probably take a price of around $2 million for bitcoin to do it.

Of course if Gold price increases faster than 4%/year, or if it increases more slowly, like say because Bitcoin is eating Gold's use case as the world's primary store of value, then the ultimate flippening could happen well before or well after 2050. For example, in 2049, after 25 years of growth (given 1.5% annual Gold supply increases), if Gold's price increased by 3% annually it will have reached about $41T, but 4% would be $52T, 5% would be $66T. The difference between those on Bitcoin's price would be $1.95 million, $2.476 million, and $3.14 million. And obviously those three prices like represent a decent span of years for Bitcoin. Compounding growth over many years is pretty crazy! So Gold's growth from here on out will have a big effect on how many years it takes Bitcoin to catch it.


Honestly I assumed it would happen in the 2030s, but after writing this up I realize I never accounted for Gold's own growth before, so the Gold flippening won't happen for much longer than I had previous assumed.


One thing that could accelerate Bitcoin's growth and allow it to pass Gold significantly sooner is if at some point in the next 20 years major nations start treating Bitcoin like Gold and hold it as part of their national reserves. Especially if they sell some Gold to replace it with Bitcoin, thus also putting sell pressure on Gold. Nations could easily buy up hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin even when prices are well into the six digits if they decide to future proof their reserves by going with a Gold + Digital Gold mix instead of just Gold.

But 2050 sounds about right to me, without having to try to guess about potential events that totally change the long term trajectory of Bitcoin or Gold's price.

Yes of course it has a chance, once people realise that it's easier to store and easier to transact with it, compared with gold.
But, of course, central banks own a lot of gold, so they have a huge impact on the market. Give it some time and eventually, my opinion is that Bitcoin will surpass gold's capitalization.
I don't think it is so important though. What's more important is to realise that Bitcoin is freedom, in a sense that it allows us to ditch the central banking system that rules the markets. It allows us to transact P2P without needing any authority to act as an intermediary. Bitcoin is a tool, just like cash is a tool. There is no need to speculate. As long as I can buy the same product using the same amount of bitcoin, paying P2P, I am good!
Bitcoin, used as Bitcoin, is better than Bitcoin that can be exchanged for higher amounts of FIAT. That's my opinion of course.

Bitcoin's meteoric rise has sparked comparisons to gold, particularly as a hedge against inflation^[1]. Some even envision it supplanting the precious metal as the ultimate store of value^[2]. However, the path to surpassing gold's market cap of $13.47 trillion remains shrouded in uncertainty^[3-4].


Currently, Bitcoin stands at just 7.1% of that value, requiring a 14-fold increase to bridge the gap and reach $678,000 per unit. While optimists like PlanB predicted a $500,000 price point^[5], even that falls short of dethroning gold.

Historical trends paint a complex picture. While Bitcoin's price momentum seems to be waning compared to traditional indices like the DJIA, it's unclear if this deceleration will persist. Assuming current growth rates, 2028 is the earliest possible date for Bitcoin to reach gold's valuation. However, factoring in potential gold price inflation due to uncontrollable economic factors, the timeline could stretch to 2035-2040.


But surpassing gold might not be the ultimate victory. An exorbitant price could hinder Bitcoin's utility as a payment method, relegating it to government reserves. Perhaps a more achievable and beneficial goal lies in surpassing larger corporations like Microsoft ($3.026 trillion), placing Bitcoin's value at a more accessible $154,000 per unit.

I want to know your opinion:

• Do you think Bitcoin has any chance of catching up and then surpassing Gold in capitalization?
• If so, when in the future might that event take place?
• If this happens, will it be a good thing for Bitcoin?

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References:
[1] GrayScale: October 2023: Rising demand for Bitcoin as Digital Gold
[2] ‘The Bitcoin Standard’: A review
[3] Gold vs. Bitcoin: Which Is Better?
[4] Top Assets by Market Cap
[5] Bitcoin Will be Scarcer Than Gold After Halving, $500K BTC Price Predicted