Topic: When will fiat money lasts? Can anyone predict it? (Read 835 times)

In the material "The Next Financial Crisis," Deutsche Bank analysts suggested that China's rather sudden integration into the world economy in the late 1970s. and a very favorable shift in the demographic situation since the 1980s. could contribute to the creation of a modern situation that has further exacerbated financial crises in recent decades.

The argument is based on the fact that the positive shock in the labor market from China and the demographic data of developed countries between 1980-2015. allowed to control inflation from the outside, as the surge in global supply of labor in the period of rapid globalization reduced wages.

As inflation is controlled from the outside, it has given governments and central banks the luxury of responding to every crisis and shock with increasing leverage, an increasingly lenient monetary policy and the ability to print more and more money. This shock of disinflation, perhaps, "saved" the currency of the currency after the rampant inflation of the 1970s. immediately after the collapse of the Bretton Woods Gold Standard from 1971

If this theory is correct, then any changes in the demographic supercycle can create problems for the monetary system. According to this scenario, inflation will grow from outside on the background of the fact that the working-age population no longer increases.

Central banks and governments that "sought help on the side" with a 35-year structural decline in inflation can not prevent this growth, since raising interest rates to the required levels could lead to a serious economic contraction, given the huge debt burden the economy has to face .

Therefore, they are forced to give priority to low interest rates and nominal growth compared to inflation control, which may mark the beginning of the end of the world phyat currency system that began with the abandonment of the Bretton Woods system back in 1971.

Fiat Currencies and Inflation

Almost throughout the financial history until the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, most currencies were provided by precious metals in the overwhelming majority of cases.

In the previous century or so, these systems periodically collapsed in many countries against the backdrop of wars, and especially during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nevertheless, countries, as a rule, returned to a certain likeness of the peg to precious metals after high inflation. Figure 1 depicts the global average inflation rate for 800 years, and then stands out after 1900, when inflation rose relative to the long-term period in history.


In Figure 2, this is reflected on an annual basis, and, as can be seen, 700 years before the 20th century, inflation and deflation were roughly on par with the gradual upward trend in inflation.


We live in times of extremely low inflation, whereas history suggests that now is the time of high inflation. Indeed, looking at the graph on the right in Figure 2 shows that since 1933 we have not had a single year of negative (median) global inflation. However, the 35-year disinflationary period began in 1980, which led to a drop in inflation from the maximum levels at the beginning of this decade to what could be the minimum in the middle of this decade.

Inflation since 1971 - loss of control and a positive disinflation shock.

In the first decade of the world's fiat currency systems, after 1971, one of the biggest increases in global inflation in history was noted. Although some of the blame for this was the shocks in the oil market, the fact that the shackles of the Bretton Woods system were lifted and the countries were able to borrow more freely and find ways to liberalize finance and credit undoubtedly contributed to higher inflation. Nominal income from gold was 32.2% per annum in the 1970s. compared with a long-term income of 1.97% per annum since 1800.

However, after 1980, a miracle happened, which many attributed to the Fed under the leadership of Volcker, who tamed the inflationary dragon. Obviously, their tougher policies helped, but was there a global structural history that provided phenomenal disinflation, a fair wind from now on and does it change direction now?

China and the demographic data of developed countries

An effective global labor force began to grow around 1980, thanks to natural global demography and China, which opened its economy to the outside world in the late 1970s. Figure 3 shows the situation of working-age citizens aged 15-64 in the more developed regions and in China, where the second column shows the situation with China before 1980 to reflect its practically closed economy up to this point and an effective surge in the global labor offers thereafter. The impact of this was first reflected in 1990, and this is reflected in the graph.


Obviously, this is a very simplified picture, and considering the world as a whole, it is worth taking into account more countries, not just China, since countries with lower salaries have evolved from relatively closed low-income countries

I think fiats will continue to exist parallal to the btcs or other digital currencies because it will neither outrun btcs nor even overta

I support that the fiats never run out because I don't have faith on these btcs and cant accept them as global currency

I don't know because I am a newbie too and want to know about it

let's be clear, even crypto won't replace fiat

As long as people don't want to go back to barter, we will always have fiat.

Sooner or later, people will realize that the governments are exploiting them with the help of the banks and corporations, and fiat money is one of their major tools to commit this exploitation. Once this becomes clear, people will start using currencies which can't be controlled by the government, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

I think fiats are going to last forever and without any sole prediction of its price course

In my own opinion I think fiat money will not lasts because it is more easy to use and anyone can use it.No one can predict what will happen to the Fiat money.

As long as institutions/governments exist there will be FIAT. But you're using the word 'FIAT'. There have been some interpretations suggesting that cryptocurrencies are a subset of FIAT category - Visit these links
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-cryptocurrencies-just-more-fiat-money_us_5a385087e4b0c12e6337b014
https://www.quora.com/Is-Bitcoin-a-fiat-currency-I-want-to-know-whether-there-is-anything-backing-Bitcoin-not-if-there-is-any-projection-of-its-future-movement-in-terms-of-USD-What-is-the-process-when-a-new-Bitcoin-is-mined-Austrian-economics-perspectives-appreciated/answer/Wellington-W.-Sculley?share=6afeff36&srid=zZb2

Difficult to predict because fiat currency is a means of exchange used by a country for the transactions of its citizens. Although currently there is a cryptocurrency that uses blockchain technology, will not replace the use of fiat currency. Because not all countries in the world can apply it, because it is collided with policies, rules and infrastructure of technology such as the availability of internet network covering all regions in a country

There are times when money is really worthless, even gold. That is, if the world is already very difficult to produce food. Prolonged famine. then the money will be abandoned and re-use the barter system as when money hasn't been found.
But I don't know when that happens, just describe some things that are likely to be the cause of the money will run out because it is worthless.

Fiat is still the only payment method in the developing countries where you can't use a card to pay for products. It will last as long as third world economies will - that is literally forever. There are still tribes and peoples that are 50 years past the average income countries, not to mention the golden million

Is there an article that dollar is going down right now? I think fiat will not going to lasts. It is important because it is already what we use to it for a long time. It is hard to replace fiat right now. Digital currency is different from fiat and they are different from each other, each of them has its own uses.

I don't think it will happen in this generation. It would be difficult if the fiat money will be gone. And if ever it would be replaced by cryptocurrency, it will be hard, for example, China banned cryptocurrency since they can't control it. Also the government won't approve it. Crypto and fiat will just co-exist.

Currencies go up and down all the time. Its the same with bitcoin and crypto. Even if the dollar goes down, that doesn't mean that fiat is in trouble of vanishing. These things are intermittent and volatile. And fiat will probably last until the entire current system crashes

A long time because it will always be manipulated.

When will fiat last? Today. In my opinion. Lol.

I agree with you. Money can not disappear in a short time, it will take more than a decade.

Currency prediction is one of the many difficult prediction, but I think we'll still need fiat for some other long time. though crypto will reign in the few years ahead, governments won't allow crypto to take over fiat.

I think that money won't disappear...even if the cryptocurrency is established, money will remain in constant use

Even the most famous fortune teller in the world cannot predict when fiat money will last. Fiat is so stable and it is more comfortable to use in our daily transaction.

Anything of value has its value bigger then it's direct usefulness (aka painted paper is called "money" and can buy something) as long as people believe in such a thing. So - we can't predict when their trust will shift worldwide. There are still places where stones and bones are used, you know? Jk.
So, i think that for now we're stuck with FIAT money for some time.
 

I guess we are in the last decade of fiat money. Creation of Dollars is spinning out of control into numbers that the mind cannot even grasp. All those illusionary money won't last forever.

I don't think fiat money will ever last, fiat money is the most common way of transaction, it can be use easily and all people know how to use it, it can be use offline, although crypto can also be used as a currency, some still prefer to convert it into fiat money for they feel more secured and to make sure that they'll get profit they wanted because we all know that crypto's price is not constant.

As long as there are still regulation applicable about the use of fiat currency as a legal means of payment in a country then fiat currency will survive

No one can predict now .

It won't last because we use fiat in everyday day life so it is impossible that fiat will last.

Predicting when the fiat will last is kind of hard. I'm not saying it's impossible I'm saying it's doable but it would be difficult. Not unless you have insider information, which i think would be illegal, not sure though but pretty sure trading laws still apply to bitcoin. But i could say by slthr start of 2019 you will see drastic changes if not it would be empty by then

I don´t think that fiat is going to disappear, at least in the near future. Fiat can have many problems but it´s really easy to use and people is acclimated to it, so it´s very hard that it it can disappear.

I think fiat will last for a long time. It is more convinient to use by anyone in a society poor or rich. But i don't know what will happen in the future if it will use by people or not.

This is the truth. Money is the power, and those who rule and control things have that power. And by money I mean the control of many times more money than a Bill Gates, or who ever else is reported as the riches man in the world.

Unknown people, Bill Gate can't ever have that power, he is known by the public.

This is a big scale question.No one can tell the exact date to stop fiat currency exchange.because if fiat lasts means Crypto should can do each and every transactions in the world.its really hard thing to happen.as my knowledge still 2% or  3% have knowledge about crypto.dat means crypto will have big crowd to reach.will see.
any way I also waiting to live without using fiat.

I bet it to be 15-20 years. That's enough to stand strong for crypto-currencies.

Remember, you predicted bitcoin price wont be more than 10000$?  now, you came with another prediction? how funny

As long as the society's government don't approve of digital money(cryptocurrencies), then fiat money will never go out. The government holds the decision of changing the current fiat to digital currency, but the perk of being decentralized of cryptocurrency makes it impossible for the government to approve of the idea of phasing out fiat money. Besides, no government can replace fiat money with digital money whenever they want to because it would take too much work to digitalize everything especially in the trading industry.

Cryptocurrency is not yet as popular so we can predict the extension of fiat money. People don't forget easy old habits and, perhaps they don't even know about all those germs that you contact one with the money...

I do not believe that the fiat monet will lasts. Even if the dollar goes down , fiat money will always be the choice of people instead of other kinds of money like digital money . Fiat money is more easy to spend than digital money. Let us say without internet connection digital money is nothing. But the fiat money with or without internet, in can be use anytime and anywhere.

Nobody cant predict when it will be gone but I think the phasing out will start within the next 10 years and within 25 years I think the world will be cashless. What a nice pure digital world it will be ahh can imagine it now!

What about when you don't have access to the internet? Would suck if you wanted to go to the store to buy bread and internet/electricity is down, sorry sir no food for you today ...
So i think fiat money will be around for a while.

Fiat money will surely not fade away so soon and no one can tell it.Eventhough cryptocurrency is being patronized by a lot of people now a days in the market,there are people or countries who will be left behind and not be willing to adapt the digital currency and still be using fiat in buying things or even in tradings.

I think it will happen in 100 years

I think our generation will still use fiat money and our kids too...
The cryptocurrency system is still young and has many gaps, and fiat currencu system is already well-developed and familiar

Its called evolution of money. Besides tons of resources are being used just to print paper money while cryptocurrency we only need electricity to run it.

Why does everyone want to be fiat replaced by cryptocurrency? I often see questions like this. I myself do not want the fiat missing and replaced by cryptocurrency. Not because I do not want to see technological progress, but I think the use of fiat money is the simplest use of payment.

If the value of money can be predicted, then its own value will gradually lose, making money is everyone's efforts, but whether it is to make money is to rely on individuals,

It goes down all the time, the same way it goes up as well. Its a fluctuation that 's normal for every market. I think fiat will still last a lifetime or two. We still need fiat and we can't rely specifically on unchecked currencies like crypto

Nonsense. Currently crypto does only one thing better which you’ve actually mentioned - speculating on speculation in the exchanges, that’s all. No one wants stable crypto, well maybe few crazy crypto anarchists around the world. Let’s say it out loud – cryptocurrency cannot be stable by its definition, at least decentralized one furthermore no one really WANTS it to be. That’s easy provable fact.
Open your eyes mate, the lack of electricity and enormously growing consumption are the main crypto killer issues.

Of course, no one can accurately predict because they could not predict the creation or prohibition of crypto currency. You just need to earn now with what it turns out and do not worry about what will happen next.

Not necessarily. Fiat (at least in the US) is just a piece of really fancy paper. It's not backed by gold or any commodity. It's literally an IOU agreement. Crypto does that function better. There are 4 major challenges with crypto:

• Crypto has to represent value...thanks to traders it is starting to get that
• Crypto has to be accessible...it's picking up speed, but need more projects like Mingo (shameless plug)
• There needs to be a retail end-point (this fits w/ the value part), but bottom line, people need to be able to buy THINGS with it.
• Crypto needs to become stable with relationship to the THINGS we want to buy

Right now traders are speculating on speculation in the exchanges. The value of crypto is primarily driven by speculation. It's just too volatile. At some point crypto will either have to become adopted by a country to replace fiat, or it'll have to become so stable that fiat doesn't make sense (especially for cross-border transactions).

I think this will be so far in the future. Digital currencies are so volatile that it changes it's price every single day. And who will be using that kind of money right? They will, for sure, use a digital currency in the future but I think it will be a day when digital currency is developed and ready to take it's path as a new currency.

money will not be exhausted, unless the markets do not use any more money for transactions

Just because there is a boom in the cryptocurrency market doesn't mean that fiat is going to go away at all, The only way that fiat is gone is when the economies of countries are no more and in the event when that happens, it's going to affect bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies as well.

Good thinking. Look at China once they lost control of crypto they shut it down.

Gold standard may come back at anytime, but it will bring a new currency.

They will coexist with digital currencies for decades...but essentially the will be replaced by digital currenccies

I think there is no one who could predict something like that it is so unpredictable,
We couldn't really know how long we could really use something .

I doubt fiat will ever go away any time soon. Even though crypto currencies are becoming more and more mainstream they still have a long way to go. As the user above me has said fiat has been around for a long time. I believe that it will stay around for a much longer time as many individuals still do not understand bitcoin. Until almost all of the population understands what Bitcoin is the switch from fiat would not be made to Bitcoin.

That will never happen, since the world moved on from the barter system of trading and moved onto the new method of paying money for goods, it's by my estimate been more than a thousand years, And i doubt the even in the current age of cryptocurrencies, that's going to change. Fiat money will last until the end time unless all the tree are eventually caught down in the whole world.

No one can predict the course of any currency, because all the world's money and even crypto-currencies are controlled by secret rulers. They control the course in the direction they need.

When will fiat money lasts? Can anyone predict it?
Dollar is going down now.