Topic: When would the BTC bubble burst? (Read 557 times)

To be honest, I always thought we had more time to accumulate. The old days of geek trading are quickly coming to an end. Even JP Morgan released a report where their analysts say that BTC could become a traditional commodity similar to gold. It's unbelievable how far we've come in a year. It seems like $10,000 bitcoins were a trigger for a lot of holdouts to start taking it seriously.

I'm looking forward to the next bear market (read: accumulation phase) but I doubt we'll get the sharp decline (80-95%) of previous cycles. A 40-60% drop in BTC is a gift from the gods at this point. Plan accordingly...

What does the MT Gox crash have to do with anything? It happened months after the blow-off top already occurred. You obviously didn't read what I said, because I was speaking to magnitude of the vertical rise, not the subsequent crash.

Also, a long-term bear market doesn't necessarily mean a 90% drop. It could also be a sideways consolidation where the lowest leg doesn't go beyond 50%. And if you think MT Gox was the reason for the 2-year bear market, you don't understand markets at all. I suggest studying Wyckoff, as well as basic premises of supply and demand.

This is the third parabolic rally in Bitcoin I've experienced. I've also traded several others in the stock market, like Nvidia. So I'm not basing my thinking on one example, but rather on several data points and a larger understanding of momentum trading. And FYI we saw similar monthly ranges during the 2011, April 2013 and November 2013 rallies. It sounds like you are the one who thinks "this time is different." Maybe you are right, but what basis do you have to argue it? I'd appreciate it if you'd "analyze things better." No offense, Mr. "Registered May 21, 2017."


Show us the numbers.

And when you say there was much less money in the game, you need to account for the fact the institutional investors are piling into the market. With a circulating supply as low as BTC, the difference between $10,000 and $20,000 (as we have just seen) is virtually nothing. It's a matter of days. More than that, companies like Square need to buy significant BTC to fund their operation, which they can now hedge on regulated futures markets. I expect similar moves from other digital wallet providers like ApplePay.


Who said anything about MT Gox? What are you talking about? And Mt Gox didn't cause the bear market. If you think an exchange going down (and removing hundreds of thousands of BTC from liquid supply) can cause a 2-year bear market, I've got a bridge to sell you.

The thing is that you don't know whether this correction will be the last correction.

If it is indeed the last and final correction then easily, we could see 30-50% drops in price down to around a $8k level before any recovery. Then we'll be on our way to face a pretty brutal bearish market for a year or two.

But if it's just a bear trap and a set up for more rallying then i'd say correction will only be around 10-20%.

Either way, buy the dip if you can.

Yes there is no bubble. Only because of speculator trading. Lol. 200% after 2 months. High profit for any investing project. I still wait failling of bitcoin price at this month to reinvest.

I may one of those person who keep on selling my bitcoin if I want to and that is regrettable at this moment when it reach 16000$.. Your not creating FUD but the wording of yours even the tittle itself shows the other way.. When does we learn that bitcoin is not a bubble and for many instances I’ve been arguing with it because they just want to have a piece of bitcoin on dip.. I need to try saving now for this increases will continue @2018..

You sold? My condolences.

When will people learn? Don't sell unless it's a total emergency.

Save up your fiat currency so that when there's a dip, you can buy more Bitcoin.

Don't waste your profits by squandering them on buying fiat. Take your profits in Bitcoin.
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Bubble? There's no bubble.

Don't believe everything you hear or read, especially in the MSM. Be especially skeptical of anything from bankers, investment "professionals" or others with a vested interest in Bitcoin failing.

Think for yourself.

It might one day, but it won't until the market reaches maturity, so when most people who want Bitcoin in the world have it, and continued increases only happen because of population growth, that's when growth will slowdown to stock market type levels. $20k isn't a spec compared to that price. This will only happen when the price gets to at least several hundred thousand dollars. Why would growth suddenly stop at $20k? We almost hit that yesterday on a 20+% daily increase. User adoption of Bitcoin I would guess is around 30 million or so right now. You need to wait until its in the billions of users to see +/- 1% a day. I would say likely it will be over $500k for that to happen.

So you're basing your expectations on an example of when bitcoin was a much much smaller market and therefore had much more volatility than today, but you're also basing it on a one time event (MtGox crash) predicting it to follow the same thing...

Some people really need to learn to analyze things better, no offense.

The bull runs back in the day were much larger percentage-wise than today because there was much less money in the game. And the periods in between them were much longer (on the order of months) because Bitcoin was not widely known so there wasn't much money sitting around thinking about getting into Bitcoin. And you can't base a current prediction based on MtGox crashing almost 4 years ago and creating a 3 year down market...how does that make any sense at all?? That was a specific event that caused that ridiculously long down market.



There is no long term bubble here. Look at the past, same thing has been happening this year multiple times, just on a quicker scale. Bull runs and crashes have been coming every few months and now every few weeks rather than roughly once a year like during 2010 - 2013. The pattern is the same, which is to say there's no bubble burst coming. The current bubble ($19k) just burst and crashed all the way down to <$14k yesterday. It might crash more as I was expecting it to crash to $12k, or we might be in a consolidation period now.

THERE IS NO BUBBLE

I think the correction already done after the burst or massive increase from the past few weeks ago the price increase right now is normally increasing both more sell and buying right now are massive compare before..  In my own analysis i feel the price will drop a bit more than 10% or less i just relaying what the movement of the price from the past years ago because every november and december i saw large or burst price increases but before christmas it can drop just a bit but it can be increase more since bitcoin movement right now is different due to its volatility we do not know what actually would be the price soon..  but i still expecting to see the price increase until $16,500-$17,000

The launch of futures markets is definitely a big unknown. One fund manager I follow posted earlier today that he only has clients interested in shorting the market. Maybe institutional shorts are just the fuel we need to take this parabola to the next level of insanity!

It's a huge question mark, but this guy has been really on point the past few weeks, and this is his take:


What I see when I look at alts today: Money is still flowing into altcoins when Bitcoin dips. New buyers are, by and large, not BTCUSD selling pressure. That tells me that the rally is far from over. When the crash is finally upon us, everyone will run for the exits. They won't be buying altcoins, LOL.

At this point in a parabolic rally, you have to throw analysis out the window. Only very basic trading principles and supply/demand analysis apply here. Price already left the log trend to the upside on the last run to $17k, which means we're probably already in the blow-off stage of the rally:


I'm using the late 2013 rally as a model. The November 2013 monthly candle had a range ~450%. For comparison, we are currently at ~83%. Therefore, I expect this to run much further than most people expect. The $50,000s would be a proper extension.

After that..... long term bear market could be back on the menu.

we need to wait to see what effect futures are gonna have before we have a clue what bitcoin will do in the next few months. that's the biggest unknown we're facing and it could have vast effects up or down or none.

and let's look at alts. it's maybe a stupid comparison but it's ultimately the same people buying pretty much.

ethereum went from less than ten bucks to several hundred. it's now been up there for months. i certainly was expecting it to dwindle back to peanuts. it didn't. same goes for all alts. they exploded while bitcoin did nothing for ages.

this is bitcoin's first really strong run since 2013. maybe it's going up there and lingering there like almost every alt has.

Kinda true, but Bitcoin is in a bubble. I don't get why people keep denying it.. It's very simple to understand if you just think about it... Almost everyone is in it, only to sell later on for more money. That's not gonna keep going forever. It's a bubble. It's gonna burst.

His intentions were not to start a FUD thread. It's likely that he didn't want to have a large discussion whether Bitcoin is a bubble, as the subject was on when it would burst.
Obviously, he simply tried to keep people from spamming "Bitcoin isnt bubble coz money and investor omg omg more money"


Incorrect. If everyone can predict the price, the price wouldn't move, so there won't be people getting rich from that.


Of course he shouldn't just believe any analysis he can find, but at least it's better than blindly buying Bitcoins, like the vast majority of the Bitcoin holders does/has done.

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Maybe it doesn't even burst... No one knows. It could just as well explode, leak its air (value) out slowly, making it shrink to $0 slowly, keep bouncing from low to high & from high to low, or it could become a "Collector's item".

The best possibility would be that Bitcoin gets some upgrades that make it a good currency for daily usage by everyone in the world. The current network is crap and can't support anything near that. We gotta upgrade it. The inefficiency of PoW is another story...

You already did by assuming that Bitcoin is a bubble. And you specifically wrote: "When would the BTC bubble burst?". Seriously?

No one can predict the price, otherwise, everyone would be rich, but at least now you know.

Don't believe every analysis you find, especially if it uses the words "BTC" and "burst".
People have been talking about the same "bubble nonsense" for months, they keep waiting for a possible burst but at the end nothing happens.
A correction in the price is already ongoing, over the last 24h the price went down by almost 10%, and that's not a "burst", it is nothing more than a healthy pullback in the price.

the correction absolutely will happen and we may be can see it for more or around 30%,
of course it will only happen after we're reaching our goal right which is to get listed on CME group's.
but i disagree with your comment about 'Burst' because if we're describing it using tha word,
does not that mean the price will be explode and it's very unlikely to recover back in the future ?
for me bitcoin still has lot of room to grow and potential await it in the future,
right now we're seeing this kind of movement due to list and some good news come from japanese a while ago.
plus later on in Q1 2018 we will see another listing that will happen,
it will burst if it become a 'Bubble',for now it's still far from it because many people lately started to know about it and trying to get into it.
at least for now i disagree with those word and my prediction about the downturn should be more than 30% because ideally Bitcoin should be around $5000++ for now and of course it will keep increasing from time to time.

Will reach bitcoin up to a million dollars and will be + -1% per day. Joke. It is unclear what will happen then. But, I think classical funds will settle the volatility of bitcoins and everything will be less stable

you don't need wait for btc crash like that fake chinese regulation, i think you can buy for now and hold it for a few next months.
just like you regret for a few months ago.

The hype already too high, too many people know about this one.

The cryptomarket is completely bananas these days. I expected a crash at any moment when BTC hit $5K, when it hit $6K, $7K ... Now? I see the effects of the monstrous rise of BTC in my own environment; everyone has suddenly heard about crypto and I get a lot of questions from a broad spectrum of people (mailman, the mayor of a village, my supervisor at work, etc) regarding investments in crypto. I'd say this is a sign the current bubble is about to pop bigtime.

that level of stability is not in view. It really has to get to a big price, which I don't think 20k is

I'm curious to see if someday BTC can go about normal without having multi thousand dollar swings within hours. Lets say it settles around 20K. Will it ever act like the DOW or any other big stock that only does +/- 1% a day?

check this post, how a 1000$ value was increased with in 10 minutes, such as the value of the coin these days. very volatile and giving headache so far.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.25969279

I though $6000 was high a few months ago, now its at $16000. I hope there is a nice crash soon so I can buy in once again.

Not attempting to start a FUD thread, I've seen alot of analysis lately that the rate at which BTC is growing, it's going to burst and there would be a massive price correction.
Personally, I doubt any price drop higher than 10%. My forecast was 15k by year end but that's gone and I've stopped forcasting of BTC price.

Now to my question, is a burst likely and what % price drop would be a BTC bubble burst?