Topic: Where else can the price go (in the long term) but up? (Read 2908 times)

Just about every single financial news story coming out since 2008 points to ever-increasing monetary debasement and capital controls.  Bitcoin is the single most natural recipient of future diversification demand from anyone wanting to store value outside the house of cards that's the current banking system.  Millionaires can diversify into Picassos, but Joe Sixpack will only have two options when the fear hits in earnest: precious metals and Bitcoin.  Today from ZeroHedge:

"A key proposal would give money market fund managers the option to suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/government-your-legal-right-redeem-your-money-market-account-has-been-denied-sequel

As in the 70s with gold, the Bitcoin price is unlikely to stop rising until you see grandmothers standing in long lines at their bank, panicking to withdraw cash so they can turn around and make BitInstant deposits.

As far as I understood the Bitcoincard generates the private keys and they can never leave the device. So a paper wallet or brainwallet would not work.

Yes I get the point.

But excuse me, IF you were open to criticism you would try to improve your graphic to more accurately represent the situation. But you don't. Why should I be bothered with it? Alright I'll do it for 10BTC if you want me to contact me if you like.
Otherwise do your thing and don't be snippy if some responses aren't always positive.

You think people get bored on a currency that can easily reach $5000 in the coming years 10-20 years if only 0.1% of the blackmarket uses Bitcoin....Now thats excluding porn, gambling, gold, money transfer market, entertainment industry, games, micropayments, food, restaurants, export/import etc.

Though when I think about it I know one person that got bored last year.
But I´m quite sure he will be back soon or is.

Though I think many of those who get bored will just leave a few coins just in case.

Think about this, when you sell at $5 you sell to someone who will sell at $6 or $10 or $50 or some will keep it as a lottery ticket and only sell at $100 $500 etc. After a while there is noone left who will sell at $5.

Now price reach $6. And some people think great I will sell now. They sell to people who will want to sell at $7 or $10 or $25 or $64 or $500.
And if the price goes down, some people will just think. Hey I will wait until the price moves up. Other will see this as a great buying opportunity.

Sure some will panic, but they will go away after a while and than maybe regret their panic and become hardened as the price goes back up and new people/investors comes in.

Ofcourse some need to sell and some just use Bitcoin to transfer money.  But most of what is sold today is sold to someone who keeps until the price goes up. This is a upward spiral as less and less coins are produced.

And as the price rise, it will get more and more people and companies interested, creating a bigger and bigger upward spiral.

If there were 100,000 who each had 210 coins all coins would be bought...That how few coins there will be. A coin is like quite many goldbars.
Ofcourse 100,00 does not create a market, unless its the world richest 100,000...

My advice to those getting bored.
If you get bored, take a profit but keep atleast some, you dont want to find that you have to buy back in at 50% higher.

Also remember the tulip bubble? One tulip could buy a house. That was in one not that big country. Now Bitcoin is in the whole world...
But unlike tulips, and FIAT they can not be copied.
 

you can store the keys on paper in safe or safe deposit box, you can also make a brain wallet with a passphrase that only you know and not have private keys anywhere else until you have to restore them to access coins from your brainwallet

I know about this, but it's not quite what I meant. As far as I can see, there is no possibility to password protect the keys, nor is there a possibility to make a physical backup of the keys. So if the hardware breaks, your coins are lost. So it's not secure enough to store many coins over a longer term. Nevertheless Bitcoincard will be great for everyday use.

I think you are probably referring to the fact that the forex blob is transactional money rather than money-supply-style money. I didn't even include options and futures and other derivatives for just that reason. Still, the point is: LOTS of money may be trying to fit into a few itty bitty bitcoins. Make your own infographic if you want to represent that idea more accurately

Not only that he is ignoring relevant criticism of why the chart is deceptive to newcomers.

Relevant infographic is relevant!

There just happens to be a lot of different threads about this right now

You're getting pretty close to spamming.

http://bitcoincard.org/
forum threads about it:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoincardorg-78171
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-bitcoincard-vienna-austria-workshop-85832
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/blog-post-our-discovery-in-vienna-the-bitcoin-card-88645

Here's why bitcoin price increases are just getting started:


img6.imageshack.us/img6/7319/028trillions.png

The infographic is part of a larger presentation on the potential of bitcoin which I made.

Nevertheless, I think this problem can be solved by using something like smartcards, which store the private keys and are able to sign transactions (with prior decryption through a passphrase). So the private keys never leave the smart card. Combine this with some kind of dedicated smart card interface-device, that displays the to-be-signed transaction and one should be reasonably safe. This concept is not new at all, but unfortunately not availiable for bitcoin, yet. Expect huge price jumps, if it is announced! 

That illustrates a weakness, not a strength.

Someone will host a similar page that sends the private key back to the server. Then they send out 100 million emails telling people to "click here to make their bitcoins safe with a paper wallet".

The biggest contribution of Bitcoin to society may not be the monetary improvement that it brings; it may be the improvements that it forces to be developed for computer security.

how hard is it to get a screen-capture of this page during printing it, if there's a rootkit already on your machine?

Coordinated international operation.

The federal reserve?

My estimation of probability over a ten year period;

65%    - some large govt makes makes it illegal (eg US, China, EU)
5%      - exploit in protocol (unlikely)
15%    - exploit in deployed code (likely)
75%    - a better (more features) coin appears that makes people switch
50%    - another GOX security breach
80%    - SR gets taken down by the fed
6%      - 51% attack
5%      - coordinated cyberwarfare by funded opponent (governments).
8%    - people finally discover how hard it is to hold on to their coins in face of determined hackers

This is not based on any data and is only my opinion.

how hard is it to print out this page https://www.bitaddress.org/ and send the coins their to the paper wallet?

this is the only real threat

LOL my father said at 6 point crazy:  "i will buy again, when it comes back down"  i told him "ya i really dont see that happening" he says "Ya ya people will get board and sell soon."

Right....

I think you forgot the most important one. People get bored, sell the btc, and go do other things.
Price of btc falls and this miniscule group of people keep proclaiming btc will go big this year.

Yes on halloween 2012 Bitcoins will be worth more than $8 

Certainty can be defined as either: perfect knowledge that has total security from error, or; the mental state of being without doubt.

I have to agree... if the dollar keeps losing value bitcoin will go up.

you dont think so?

actually one could argue that future fiat inflation is already calculated into today's price

IMO, no its not.

1 btc = 8$ of value
1btc != 8$ of value 4 years from now

the market wont look that far ahead.

Certainty?

This much is a mathematical certainty because of the inflation on fiat. The question is will it get back to $31 in 2011 value (the silver parity proposal is interesting in that regard)? I do think so and agree it will be within the next 4 years.

Where else can the price go (in the long term) but up?

Where can USD go but down?

Ftfy

I think that last years $31 is very unlikely to be bitcoins all time high. I would expect that it will be surpassed within the next few years.

I could get hit by a car tomorrow. These are the dangers we all face.

Its no reason to avoid bitcoin.

+1

Agree 100%. I started buying BTC steadily since April because I've been predicting an intensifying loss of confidence in the world's financial systems and currencies for some time now. It's become laughable - there is a new scam revealed pretty much every week, yet somehow everything goes on business as usual. I'm thinking it's going to really start unravelling by late September - the traditional month for banking crises.

I think there will be a flood into Bitcoin especially seeing as how the metals are so manipulated right now. It's also becoming more and more convenient for people worldwide to convert to Bitcoin by depositing cash locally.

Totally agree: btccharts.com

I'll tell you a secret: The price will always go left → right.

With the following list I can't see how prices can remain below $7/btc by December 31st of 2012:

1. Block reward having (i know i know repeating it a million times)

2. More efficient mining equipment to hit the market inevitable as technology gets better and miners seek to have the "edge" over others.

3. Price rising without any news media hype.

4. With elections in a few months and our financial system in turmoil I can see stocks tanking, USD exchange markets tanking, gold and silver price taking a hit via manipulation (possibly).

5. (i'm sure that I've forgotten something....but oh well you get the picture)


Note: Recent volatility we saw today between $7.40 and $9.50 is nothing just looking at previous price movements.

 

"keep stacking bitcoins"