Topic: Which are you more attracted to: -10 (favorite) or +10 (underdog)? (Read 226 times)

I agree.

It's about what are the odds or advantages but as long as you can calculate the risk and it's very achievable you go for it. You gamble not just you're gambling.

But you gamble because you want to win too. That's how it is going to be when you gamble because we're not just wagering for that sake of wagering but we want something out of it.

There are a lot of considerations to be done when we're attracted to these odds but as we bet, it's not just all about it.

This is why every match is different as each team has their own history to refer to and may show different performance in the actual game. In case of choosing which odds is best to choose, it depends on how familiar you are with the teams. Of course, it would be easy to pick the odds if you are well-informed of the stats of each team.

you have to play without taking into account the odds. today I managed to get a result with and odd of @46 (!) i place this bet not because "it was high valute" but because I thought that this result could actually be achieved.
Another approach is to play a bet if it seems too undervalued...I remember years ago there was a topic on this topic.

Totally depends but most of the time i would really be that interested on betting on favorites with having that 1.5x odds on which everything which is lower with those numbers then i would simply skip out.  

When it comes on choosing then it would really be that just depending on several factors on which it would really be just that depending into those things and on how you do assess it.
This is why each bettor would really be having that different considerations on choosing on which team or player they would really be betting into.
Honestly, odds would really be that tempting specially if its on underdog but you wont really be just carelessly be that getting hooked with those odds without having
other considerations. So it would really be just that depending into those factors on which bettors would really be tending to deal into.

If they don't lose often, then that means they are winning often, and that makes them a better choice in the game. It's just that there are times that they will get dumped by their opponents.

This is true and we do this before betting. Maybe some will stick on these principles no matter what and there might be some who will pick the opposing team if the odds change.

You just said that sports are about skills and not luck, so therefore a quick glance may not be enough to judge if who can possibly win but it needs a deep analyzation and research first. Teams doesn't know us, so it's impossible for them to participate with us and make us win at all times.

As I understand it, this question is not only about basketball? I prefer betting on the favorite because the favorite wins a significant part of the games with a margin (large score), so the handicap maximizes profit. I believe that you need to take increased risk in order to get increased profit, so when I bet on an outsider (this also happens) I never take a positive handicap.
By the way, here is my successful bet on a favorite with a negative handicap:

Yes, yes, I agree that odds are there to balance the outcomes, that's why I added that they can justify whatever bet. It's just that I compared +-10 points in basketball vs. +- 2 goals in football, but in the end we all are saying the same

It's probably just his own opinion,  actually it's hard to score 2 points in football than 10 points in basketball as there are teams who can easily score 10 points in just 2 minutes, but that 2 goals in football, I don't kow how many minutes it will take before a team scores, especially if both teams are good in playing defense. However, at the end of the day, we are still gambling, so we have our own opinion or analyis, and if that's what we believe, we should stick with it especially if we are profitable with it.

I understand your point that -10 or +10 handicap in basket ball is better than -2 or +2 handicap in football. I understood that now but handicap in football is not that bad because it is not what people will always go for. There are some matches that you will be very sure that the stronger team would win with many goals but having very low odd and use handicap to bet. I have used it before and win and lost. Let me ask you a question. When you compare the handicap in basket ball to football, did you consider their odds together? You need to use that also for the comparison and not just the chance to using it to win a bet or not. The chance can be higher but comes with lower odds.

-2 in football is a very bad deal IMO, because chances are that the favorite team doesn't score a goal in a bad day, so imagine if it has to score at least two and depend on what the other team does too. Maybe good odds justify it, but I think it is very difficult to guess.

On the contrary, in basket you can be sure that points will be within a range, so in the case mentioned by the OP it could make sense going for handicap.

Recently i've had more success with the underdogs in the NBA, and my experience with the favorites is bittersweet now that more than half of the teams in the league are very competitive compared to the previous seasons.

Overall, there are a few factors that I have to check first before picking a side because the odds providers don't mind if they make mistakes in setting the spread, and it's easy for them to adjust the numbers as the season goes on.

To be honest, I'm not too dominant with basketball betting, especially since it's been too long since I've been up to date with any information regarding this sport. but because of the comparison you ask, there is no difference with football which I like more.

So let me respond in general terms, also with what I understand. for me, this option depends on the team that will compete and the choices we will make in betting. In football, pluses and mines are handicap options, and it depends on how we research and analyze them. personally, I always look for the ideal option when I want to place a bet. It doesn't matter which team is superior or which team is mediocre, it all depends on the situation, competition, performance and all aspects which are variables in my research. It's a little complicated, but I usually do this to minimize losses. Apart from that, the odds provided are always something I consider in any option. In this way, at least we know the direction the bookies will take. So, therefore, all the latest information is a must for me as a reference in assessing, researching and finally analyzing it. as a result, I can choose + or -. that too, with odds that match what I want.

In principle, neither basketball nor football is much different. and regarding betting choices, it all depends on when we research it even when it comes to betting on our favorite team. This is how we act neutrally when researching and analyzing. then, the final outcome is determined to select the betting option. More or less, that's my betting style.

That wasn't an underdog that they'd need to win for the bet to win. We are talking about point spread here. If that underdog is +10 and the favorite wins by only 9 points, the bet would still win. Because of the point spread, decision making is quite hard. Even if one team is a heavy favorite and you believe they will win, the question now is can they cover the spread?

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It's the handicap because you won't be getting odds like 1.90 when one team is a heavy favorite.

For the handicap to be +10 for the underdog, the favorite moneyline will likely be 1.20 to 1.25, so even if the favorite will easily win, would you be willing to risk your money for 25% profit of your bet?

It really doesn’t matter much because the bookies calculate the rates according to the teams’ chances of winning anyway. If you bet on the favorite your chances of winning will be higher but you’ll need to wager more to have a meaningful return. In the end the house will take its cut no matter who you choose to bet on.

If you want to become a good gambler focus on finding ev+ bets. If you overdo this your account might get closed though.

I think the statistics for the percentage of covering a high spread is different from other sports. What OP is discussing is basketball, specifically the NBA, where sometimes a -10 spread is even very low. There are teams that can win by blowouts, winning by 20+ or even 50 points, especially if the opposing team is really weak. This would just boil down to how confident we are because that point spread created was not taken from thin air; it was well analyzed by the bookmakers to attract equal actions.

I do play handicaps but not often, the thign about picking Handicap against the weak team is that, I've often seem stronger than not able to score much goals as expected against weak teams and that could be at your disadvantage, but in the Turkey leauges, they have two outstanding teams raring from last seasons performance, fernabache and gatasaraway I don't know if I got the spelling right, but they are normally my picks for a Handicap match.

With a high spread, it does seem like they will have a hard time covering, but in reality, it's easier for them. If only we had data to check on the last season of the NBA and on teams with a -10 spread in a game, we would see the winning percentage. But for typical bettors, this is an automatic bet on the underdog. Just like me when I was still new to sports betting, I always saw it as a gift, and I even bet on the moneyline with huge odds.

If I compare this in football terms which will be a handicap of -2 or +2 due to the low scoring nature of football matches. I will realistically rather go for the favorites with a handicap of -2 than to back the underdogs except when I really fancy the underdogs, but handicapping the favorites will make the odds very unattractive with how low it will be.

If I calculate I will have bet more on the underdogs the times I really fancy them with how attractive the odds are and maybe throw in a handicap of (+1) or place a live bet during the match if the underdogs are looking likely or have scored a goal already.

- Jay -

Not all the time the underdog loses the game but less chance of winning which makes a better choice for the favorite team. Usually, we take a look at their ratings and overall season performance and those teams we see that have higher ratings versus their opponents also have higher chances of winning. Just having a quick glance, we know already where we put our bets.  Sports is certainly not about luck but it is the skills and team participation, a way for them to win the game and their stats show who they are as a team and how they compete with others.

Yes, betting against the public should be done rationally and backed up with evidence. Just like you, I wouldn't bet on the underdog because most people are betting on favorites to win and I just want to go against them even when the data I have about the teams says otherwise. An underdog shouldn't just be any "low" performing team but should be one that has potentials , I call it the sparks of greatness.

Is that not handicap that you meant? I do not like going for handicap. Some people like it especially to go for the weak team with minus that the strong team will still win them. I do not know much about basketball but I have gone for -2 in football before. But I do not like handicaps. I prefer to just go for the tram that would win but it can be a small odd for the strong team unlike handicap.

Just as what they say, it really depends but as a gambler I'd like to pick the +10 for the underdog if it seems possible that the team have that good performance for the most recent of its games. On NBA, I'd choose +10 if it's with the NBA finals with Dallas and Celtics. That +10 is actually a great advantage as a bettor to have if you're going to go with them. But they just really ended up badly on the game 1.

Well, all of us have different factors and situation on what we're going to choose.

Mate, you are straightforward with the Detroit but it's true, there are some exceptions depending on which team with the +10 so, as said by most, it varies and dependent to the teams.

Defense and Offense stats of the team involved. If the underdog team on the match has a defense capability to stop the favorite team then +10 is a better option.

It’s always depends on the underdog team whether you will choose +10 or -10. A thrash team like Piston on the last season surely can’t cover +10 against team on higher rank while team like Spurs even though at the bottom of rankings can still cover this +10 since they have Wemby to compensate with their lack of offense.

I usually pick +10 if both has close stats or the underdog team has a previous record of beating a stronger teams on that same season.

Obviously, you'd have more losses on underdogs because that team is the underdog, that meant that they're not the favorite to win at that time, that's why bookies are putting in more money on them than that of the one team that's favored to win the match, that's how it works. For me though, I don't really depend too much on the players or the teams that are playing, in my opinion, I'm already gambling, might as well take the risk right? So in times like this, I always tend to bet on the underdog because who knows what might happen and the underdog wins, I wouldn't miss out on potential big pays, it will only take one underdog win for me to offset all of the losses that I've got but if we're talking about consensus, I'd say that more people would probably choose to play it safe and pick the favorite.

I think it also depends on the teams that are playing. If I see that -10 is achievable more than 50% of the time, then that should be the right bet. We don't have to dig into the statistics of both teams if we are already familiar with them, since it's just one league and it's easier to familiarize.

However, from a general perspective, I think +10 is very attractive. Personally, as far as I remember, I have more losses when taking high handicaps on the underdog than high spreads on the favorites, so I'd choose -10.

Depends on which teams are going to play.

Let's say the Boston Celtics will play against the Portland Trail Blazers, I would pick the -10 no matter where they will play. Yes, even if it's the Trail Blazers home.
I will take the +10 if let's say Boston Celtics will play against New York Knicks even without Randle because they showed how great of a team they are this year, especially the Nova trio. The game might end in a close fight so the +10 for the Knicks will probably help out.

So everything will depend on which team will face another and then looking at the injury reports also especially if an offensive player is the one who will not play. Also, check the +/- of each player because it can affect the results of the game.
Usually, I pass up the -11 to -15 or I will just try to parlay the low odd Moneyline to something else so it would increase the odds. This is why I love the same game parlay feature. Very helpful when there's only one game available especially now in the Finals.

I just want to know which one you'll pick if you have to judge quickly. This is a point spread in any game, like a basketball game to be specific. You see the betting line, and therefore you have to choose between the two. Please tell me what the basis of your pick is. Those who are active in sports betting have surely seen a lot of betting lines like this, so your first reaction seeing it, which side are you attracted to?

You can see some of the statistics here/

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/trends/ats_trends/?sc=is_fav