Topic: Which on-chain anayltics have you found to be most useful when predicting price? (Read 96 times)

Most of these anayltics do not aim to predict the price or determine its value, but rather to give a mathematical analytical view of the level of risk that will be taken on it, in short, you can use it to manage risks or analyze the price in the medium and long term, not the prediction used to determine the peaks and troughs.

Some of glassnode analyzes are good for knowing how long the wave will continue, but it fails to predict accurately.

you cannot predict the price.

you can however weight the risks

for instance knowing the cheap:expensive mining cost of $21k:$72k. you can see that if the price ever tanked down to $21k where no one is profiting via mining. then everyone will prefer to buy coins cheap instead of waste it on electric
so you can work out some bottomline value lines no one would want to go below.
where the buy pressure is super high to prevent it going that low
you can also work out the most expensive mining cost. where by if the price ever went above this. no one would want to buy because they can get coins cheaper via mining/pool OTC

so you can form a window of value of $21k-$72k(at current mining costs)
and if the price is near the tip of this then the buy support is lacking.

you can then add on more metrics.. like the UTXO movements of the last 12 months (active traders) and look at where the majority have moved coins above certain price. where they too would not want to sell at a loss

for instance 50% of last 18month of coins moved when prices were above $37k (75% of 12 month coin movements)
so there is strong support not to sell below $37k

so you can narrow down the window to ~$37k-$72k as the speculation zone of support and resistance

you cant predict the exact price at any time. but you can evaluate if the price is at a low good value or at a high overpriced bubble.. and then weigh out the risk of oppertunity

i actually using the same way in order to predict the next direction of the growth rate.. Although I'm not 100% sure, but somehow this technique is a little bit useful wherein despite of some false break out that always happened in the market, still can get the right timing using those candle sticks.

Of course we can't take everything into account but it's more of a game of probability anyway, and in that if we are predicting the price we need to be ready to change our shot/mid term plans in an instant.

Because news don't even have be real to create negative sentiment that is causing bots to sell automatically and crashing the market. And this could mess up any TA and instantly turn any charts bearish, and bearish TA just could be self-fulfilling prophecy. Long time frame fundamentals don't really count in mid term / short term trading.

This is the most simplest kind of analysis even for learners and hodlers. I don't know much about trading but I try to watch the candles on a long time to predict how long I want to hodl or if I want a longer time hodling. And as you said, there are no perfect way to hodl, the market goes up and comes down at some time, like bitcoin is bouncing to to $54k from $64 last week.

I'm not really familiar with analysis software, if I want to analyze a coin I better use candle patterns.
And I combine it with the MACD indicator, and I am always satisfied with the results. But you must understand that none of the analysis models are 100% accurate.

Are these tools truly useful? Andreas Antonopoulos believes that it's impossible to make reasonable price predictions using any approaches and data, for instance, and goes as far as to compare it with Astrology. I think that he's largely right because there are indeed many variables that can affect the price, and it's impossible to take everything into account in advance to predict the price.
I believe it's useful to look at the price chart to analyze the past and perhaps to spot certain general tendencies, but these observations are very limited for accurate price predictions. It's also useful to keep track of the news because negative statements by some authorities tend to trigger some panic selling and a temporary decrease in price, but this also doesn't really matter if someone is investing in Bitcoin long-term.

IntoTheBlock offers a wide range of analytical tools, including on-chain analysis for a variety of crypto-assets, as well as order book data and sentiment analysis.


Source : https://app.intotheblock.com/

I am using combination of different indicators like Bitcoin NUPL or Net Unrealized Profit/Loss NUPL, BTC Stock-to-Flow, MVRV Z-Score and few others, but nothing can exactly predict Bitcoin market top or bottom.
You need to take in account overall economic situation in the world especially in time of pandemic, money printing, potential war rumors, etc and predict most likely scenario that will happen in near future..
There is no risk in holding coins but you need to be ready to suffer the pain and learn not to check your blockfolio every minute, because I think that long term we are going to $100k but road upwards will be bumpy.

There is an alternative on-chain analysis platform besides glassnode, I already tried Crypto Quant (https://cryptoquant.com/).
They have a lot of features especially you paid some subscriptions, but there is also some part that is for free, but only limited.
These days, I just open my notification for their Telegram channel/bot if there is some notice from them, for free.

On this, there are a lot of parameters we can use, just like the inflow or outflow of Bitcoin to some exchanges, another thing is Bitcoin balances on different exchange wallets.

Which on-chain analytics you use (glassnode for example), which specific parameters you have found to be most useful and most "predictive" when it comes to bull /  bear cycles and price tops or bottoms?