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Topic: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in? (Read 348 times)

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At this point I am getting a little bit worried about what I am seeing on the charts, the upward movement obviously benefits me, but it is so abrupt and sudden that it seems unsustainable and at some point a fast decrease on the price may come.

Now this is not much of a problem if you had invested your money in bitcoin, but if you invested in some of those new altcoins, your losses can be huge as many of the coins which are pumping today may not be around a few months down the line.
This is why I believe we are still in the Disbelief stage, instead of Hope or Optimism. BTC just created a new ATH before the halving, surprising the whole market, but I don't see FOMO happening in the market, it seems that most are waiting for a correction so they can buy more BTC at lower prices. I think Hope will really only come after Halving, when the narrative about the scarcity caused by Halving will push investors to place high expectations on the market's impressive growth.

Right now, I expect an accumulation behavior for BTC, at the same time Altcoins will receive inflow and catch up with BTC in price performance.
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For that, we can say that,  bitcoin as a coin is in a bull position and heading to the next all-time market price that will be a reasonable milestone and we may see that before the next Bitcoin halving cycle.

I agree with you. Currently the price of Bitcoin is breaking its ATH and that will give people FOMO and will cause the market to panic, causing a massive surge in purchases. Currently Bitcoin and Altcoins are in a Bullish stage. Some coins will hit their ATH. I see this season's bullrun being dominated by new coins. It is important to be able to accumulate altcoins and sell them at the right moment. I never hold my altcoins for long. I will sell it and buy BTC for my fiat exit method.
At this point I am getting a little bit worried about what I am seeing on the charts, the upward movement obviously benefits me, but it is so abrupt and sudden that it seems unsustainable and at some point a fast decrease on the price may come.

Now this is not much of a problem if you had invested your money in bitcoin, but if you invested in some of those new altcoins, your losses can be huge as many of the coins which are pumping today may not be around a few months down the line.
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For that, we can say that,  bitcoin as a coin is in a bull position and heading to the next all-time market price that will be a reasonable milestone and we may see that before the next Bitcoin halving cycle.

I agree with you. Currently the price of Bitcoin is breaking its ATH and that will give people FOMO and will cause the market to panic, causing a massive surge in purchases. Currently Bitcoin and Altcoins are in a Bullish stage. Some coins will hit their ATH. I see this season's bullrun being dominated by new coins. It is important to be able to accumulate altcoins and sell them at the right moment. I never hold my altcoins for long. I will sell it and buy BTC for my fiat exit method.
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Safe and no loss in a downturn is certainly coveted in crypto investing but I believe that emotionally during bullish times will encourage impatience to wait for the previous profit hit, and vice versa during bearish conditions. But my statement was refuted on bitcoin and bitcoin was able to make a good image after the worst dump a few years ago. I feel some fud maybe X4 below the current price, it's too early until panic occurs including on altcoins. we see still this year, I agree on the holder its winner, they will harvest during the dca the year before and towards halving, maybe halving time people will harvest but some people keep bitcoin like forgetting it in their wallet, it's amazing psycology.

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why does it always mean a downtrend when they say The Correction Stage?  can't it mean that the market is correcting the real value of BTC which is $100K?

but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle.  Grin

How can you say that the actual value of Bitcoin is 100K, so don't you see the price of 1 BTC rising above 100k forever?

The price of BTC will break 100K mark for sure before the peak and it will reach upto 150K possibly or atleast 120 to 130K range for sure before the bear kick in.

We are in the FOMO stage, that everyone trying to find right coins for them which means the price will go higher before the downtrend begins.
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We are at the very end of the accumulation zone. There is still a chance that the market will flash crash to wipe out future traders but there won't be any long downward moments like we had a few months ago. If you are still holding on to your funds to take entry you should start doing that right now. The market can be extremely manipulative before the big move but one thing is certain for sure post halving and that is a massive rally towards an all time high.

absolutely yes we are at the end of accumulation zone because now the price is huge enough that everyone cannot buy it. Everyone will first examine the price and lower price is the most appropriate timing for buying but now as the price is 61k$ so I think still there is a little chance to accumulate bitcoin but once it goes more higher then your profit will not be as much as you are expecting.

If once more dip we have face before halving then that will be the best time and opportunity to accumulate bitcoin more as you can. We will surely see dip in price but that will not be a matter to be worried about but actually that time correction will take place and we have to take advantage of that beneficial timing.
sr. member
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We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.
Definitely right as the market started to pumps again and the thrill is about to begin especially once the halving is done.
Many are rushing into the market now, you can see good news all over the social media platform regarding big institutions investing with Bitcoin and even some government releasing their positive statements towards Bitcoin adoption so yeah, we are in the stage of Optimism and Belief and if the good news continues, we might see another peak.

Yeah we are definitely in the early bull phase. I don’t see the peak excitement & interest from newbies to suggest anything but that. We should start to see a more sustained surge upwards towards the end of the current year. I do not expect real parabolic momentum until 2025 though. Sit back & enjoy the show guys.
We are in the bull season and we all need to start working and looking for other good projects we can invest and make Money without stress. If we know how to invest in Bitcoin and look for good altcoins to put our money, we might be surprised to benefits from such a project without with time. Crypto market is still going close to the bull and all we have to do now is to keep buying because this time around, the price of Bitcoin is going to reach $100k and more.

Yeah I think this is the best time to get a good altcoin to push some money into so as to make more funds during this bull run, the price of bitcoin hits $64 today hopefully we may experience it getting up to $100k just like you said so i think it's an opportunity to invest in an altcoin project since they are rising even as the price of bitcoin keeps going up. Considering the volatile nature of bitcoin it is also important we monitor a good project before investing in to because a little drop in the price of bitcoin may cause a total crash of some altcoin projects.
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As I had mentioned earlier on this thread we will again see a small bull run due to multiple reasons in Bitcoin. As expected the bull run has started and in next couple days we will be seeing profit booking. That being said , I have a feeling that in this year of halving the price of Bitcoin won't go down but it might come near to its previous ATH. I was suprised to see how a few meme coins are pumping from yesterday. I hope those who got stuck into those coin are now able to book profit or square even and exit them.
It is precisely because of those people that those old meme coins will have problems regaining their former glory, as any small interest that it may come from new investors is accompanied by many of those people selling some of their coins, making impossible for a rally to form.

However I have little doubts new meme coins will become extremely popular again, as once enough newbies get interested in this market and believe they can make a fortune with no effort on their part, they will pick meme coins as their preferred asset.
sr. member
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As I had mentioned earlier on this thread we will again see a small bull run due to multiple reasons in Bitcoin. As expected the bull run has started and in next couple days we will be seeing profit booking. That being said , I have a feeling that in this year of halving the price of Bitcoin won't go down but it might come near to its previous ATH. I was suprised to see how a few meme coins are pumping from yesterday. I hope those who got stuck into those coin are now able to book profit or square even and exit them.
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Yeah we are definitely in the early bull phase. I don’t see the peak excitement & interest from newbies to suggest anything but that. We should start to see a more sustained surge upwards towards the end of the current year. I do not expect real parabolic momentum until 2025 though. Sit back & enjoy the show guys.
I also have this view: BTC price is increasing, today it reached 57K USD but many new people are still worried and not ready to buy BTC at such a high price. Some decided to wait for the correction, or even hold stable coins to buy Altcoins after BTC Halving.

I don't have data on the number of new users on CEXs, but crypto-related activity on social networks hasn't seen as impressive growth as what I've seen in 2021. I think the Halving will be seen as a milestone for many investors to enter the market, we will have the mini-Altseason, maybe the DeFi summer, then the growth of both BTC and Altcoins.
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We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.
Definitely right as the market started to pumps again and the thrill is about to begin especially once the halving is done.
Many are rushing into the market now, you can see good news all over the social media platform regarding big institutions investing with Bitcoin and even some government releasing their positive statements towards Bitcoin adoption so yeah, we are in the stage of Optimism and Belief and if the good news continues, we might see another peak.

Yeah we are definitely in the early bull phase. I don’t see the peak excitement & interest from newbies to suggest anything but that. We should start to see a more sustained surge upwards towards the end of the current year. I do not expect real parabolic momentum until 2025 though. Sit back & enjoy the show guys.
We are in the bull season and we all need to start working and looking for other good projects we can invest and make Money without stress. If we know how to invest in Bitcoin and look for good altcoins to put our money, we might be surprised to benefits from such a project without with time. Crypto market is still going close to the bull and all we have to do now is to keep buying because this time around, the price of Bitcoin is going to reach $100k and more.
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We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.
Definitely right as the market started to pumps again and the thrill is about to begin especially once the halving is done.
Many are rushing into the market now, you can see good news all over the social media platform regarding big institutions investing with Bitcoin and even some government releasing their positive statements towards Bitcoin adoption so yeah, we are in the stage of Optimism and Belief and if the good news continues, we might see another peak.

Yeah we are definitely in the early bull phase. I don’t see the peak excitement & interest from newbies to suggest anything but that. We should start to see a more sustained surge upwards towards the end of the current year. I do not expect real parabolic momentum until 2025 though. Sit back & enjoy the show guys.
Shouldn't we call that the Accumulation phase as per the descriptions provided in OP? Based on the current market situation, the prices are somehow stable but are slowly rising and there is low investor participation at the moment. The early bull phase should look different because during that phase, there should be more investors buying and the prices should be going up more quickly than they are right now.
We should call it the early bull phase when we see more investors getting in action, buying and storing major cryptocurrencies and getting ready for the continuous upward surges that we might see hitting the market in early 2025.
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I think people are more hopeful for a new bitcoin price, and a lot of new investors are investing more boldly this period because of the ETf approval that helps more persons that doesn't want to go into the stress of learning about how bitcoin works to invest, and I believe that many watchers have finally made the decision to buy bitcoin, but let's see how it goes anyway.

And I think the emotions are the same this year cause I've seen some persons who are hopeful about the bull run affecting the price of some meme coins and some new project, although I Don't really like buying altcoins, many are very enthusiastic about this bull run and are looking for a coin to buy that would give thme those 100x profits.
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We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.
Definitely right as the market started to pumps again and the thrill is about to begin especially once the halving is done.
Many are rushing into the market now, you can see good news all over the social media platform regarding big institutions investing with Bitcoin and even some government releasing their positive statements towards Bitcoin adoption so yeah, we are in the stage of Optimism and Belief and if the good news continues, we might see another peak.

Yeah we are definitely in the early bull phase. I don’t see the peak excitement & interest from newbies to suggest anything but that. We should start to see a more sustained surge upwards towards the end of the current year. I do not expect real parabolic momentum until 2025 though. Sit back & enjoy the show guys.
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There was a short bull run when Bitcoin suddenly went to $52k and after that, it was trading sideways. Yesterday Bitcoin went down to $50k and the bearish market has started with it. I read a few articles and they said that Bitcoin will go further down due to profit booking. In general, before the halving Bitcoin goes through a major correction which everyone expected to happen this year. Because of Bitcoin's dominance altcoins are in red and as long as it stays in red altcoins will shed their new gain in the small bull run.
The bearish market doesn't affect me, rather I've transformed it to be the season for investment on my end, not minding what people or the trends informs us but keep consistent listening ears to my strategies in the system, though it's not easy but it takes only discipline and hardwork. Altcoins becomes very promising whenever there's presence of the bull season, because we become confident of the altcoins season to come next. Bitcoin will fluctuate in price, we know how the system operates because we've been in the space and have grabbed golden entries on this project.
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It's not a bearish market if the price just sideways after breaking the strong resistance and convert it to support which is the 50K level. It's more on accumulating phase rather than bear market since the bulls can easily take over once price reach near 50K(newly converted strong support). I think we are still on markup phase since many are keep buying whenever the price show bearish movement on short period of time.

There's no clear sign either of taking profit since the price still never experience bearish movement even for a week or a consecutive weeks. We are still good on reaching the ATH.

I completely agree with your perspective that it is not bearish market, it could be characterized as initial stage of bullish market.  Bitcoin's price has not only exceeded 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA) as well as surpassed 21 Weekly Moving Average (WMA) which is generally considered bullish signal. I think it is not right time to book profit as halving of Bitcoin is approaching and FED has paused interest rate hike, these developments can potentially drive the price upwards in the weeks ahead.
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There was a short bull run when Bitcoin suddenly went to $52k and after that, it was trading sideways. Yesterday Bitcoin went down to $50k and the bearish market has started with it. I read a few articles and they said that Bitcoin will go further down due to profit booking. In general, before the halving Bitcoin goes through a major correction which everyone expected to happen this year. Because of Bitcoin's dominance altcoins are in red and as long as it stays in red altcoins will shed their new gain in the small bull run.

It's not a bearish market if the price just sideways after breaking the strong resistance and convert it to support which is the 50K level. It's more on accumulating phase rather than bear market since the bulls can easily take over once price reach near 50K(newly converted strong support). I think we are still on markup phase since many are keep buying whenever the price show bearish movement on short period of time.

There's no clear sign either of taking profit since the price still never experience bearish movement even for a week or a consecutive weeks. We are still good on reaching the ATH.
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However, that is just my subjective opinion, I would like to get your opinion:
  • In your opinion, which stage best describes the current crypto market sentiment? What reasoning underlies your perspective?
  • Do you believe market makers leverage sentiment charts to manipulate the crypto market? Why or why not?

References:
[1] Mastering the Market Cycle – Mindset and Strategies
Well to my little ideals, the stage in the Crypto markets that describe the most sentiments evolves around Investors who has stacked as much value of Crypto coins in the markets on the strategies of growing at their assets while bargaining on profits in a partial system with the logical strategeous dip holding while exercising on the Coins markets price increasements in values to either sells or keep hodling.
Meanwhile other crpto investors and the potential investors are craving with an estimate price of the Coin should depreciate on a lower value so they could buy, accumulates as much they can while getting to the height of expecting increase in the market so as to sell out too. There is a case of vice versa here but the most sentiments lies at the investors who had accumulated and hodling and gazing at the markets increase for sells of making nice profits.
sr. member
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There was a short bull run when Bitcoin suddenly went to $52k and after that, it was trading sideways. Yesterday Bitcoin went down to $50k and the bearish market has started with it. I read a few articles and they said that Bitcoin will go further down due to profit booking. In general, before the halving Bitcoin goes through a major correction which everyone expected to happen this year. Because of Bitcoin's dominance altcoins are in red and as long as it stays in red altcoins will shed their new gain in the small bull run.
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I like the idea of this asking where we are now. I have read this a couple of times and managed to not do much with approaching the target because I'm always on the market trading with my bot and I have certain strategies if the market is going down or up.

Right now I believe it's still in the markup stage, based on the list that you provided, because it's still rising in a standard way. I believe it's still going to go up with the institutions and possible retail traders making BTC a part of their portfolio (using ETFs)

For the market makers, if they have large money, they can influence the market, but at this rate, I think they are just producing volume.
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We are at the very end of the accumulation zone. There is still a chance that the market will flash crash to wipe out future traders but there won't be any long downward moments like we had a few months ago. If you are still holding on to your funds to take entry you should start doing that right now. The market can be extremely manipulative before the big move but one thing is certain for sure post halving and that is a massive rally towards an all time high.
really hoping it will happen, i've been accumulating all my salary this months around to buy some coins that I think will be promising in the future, wonder what gonna be the trigger for when the actual pump gonna actually come, in the previous bullrun it was tesla and various company following its path, maybe its because a sudden pump this time around followed by approval of ethereum's ETF which means altcoin season for most of us.
regardless accumulating is the best way, DCA ing for those that are late doesn't hurt either, remember that all time high for bitcoin is $100k. we are still only half way to go until we reached the all time high.
most of the newer coins that are listed in the exchange despite unperformant or already performant enough might be hitting its all time high this bullrun.
be prepared for something big and definitely try to accumulate.
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We are at the very end of the accumulation zone. There is still a chance that the market will flash crash to wipe out future traders but there won't be any long downward moments like we had a few months ago. If you are still holding on to your funds to take entry you should start doing that right now. The market can be extremely manipulative before the big move but one thing is certain for sure post halving and that is a massive rally towards an all time high.

You have correctly pointed out that market is side ways and in accumulation phase. Many prominent analysts also share the same view that the market might go through a short lived correction phase before embarking on a significant bullish trend. Personally, I don't bother much about short term market fluctuations and continue holding on my long term position in Bitcoin and Ethereum with firm belief that long term outlook of the market is very positive and Bitcoin might reach its new all time high (ATH) within next few months.
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We are at the very end of the accumulation zone. There is still a chance that the market will flash crash to wipe out future traders but there won't be any long downward moments like we had a few months ago. If you are still holding on to your funds to take entry you should start doing that right now. The market can be extremely manipulative before the big move but one thing is certain for sure post halving and that is a massive rally towards an all time high.
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We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief
I personally think we are still in optimism, after all we are just like starting, new projects starting building the next big things, the rally aren't that significant if you see from the time frame as well as comparing to the all time high. I think we still have long way to go until we reached the peak, but thats just my 2 cents, i could be wrong in this regard, after all the only coin that have meaningful increase projected from all time high is just solana that is with its 10x increase from its initial capital.
but I guess all of this is just speculation, we will see whether bitcoin gonna have rally that could at least bring it up near to the all time high then we will know whats going on, these pumps are so obscure anyway.
even we are still have no idea about whether bitcoin could even surpass all time high.
legendary
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The chart and the classification won't be an exact match for crypto as crypto is still in the phase of adaption. It hasn't reached to all potential investors yet.
The chart actually describes large index or stock markets that goes through bulls and bears. The bulls and bears on crypto are still not the same though moving towards it.
If we are to compare todays traders and investors mentality with bitcoin at 51K, the phase is accumulation. Everyone is convinced that bitcoin is going to break it's previous ATH and that's still around x2 of current price.
So, we are at Optimism where people buy and expect for a rise, Hope could have been when the price was around 30K, up from low 18K.
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why does it always mean a downtrend when they say The Correction Stage?  can't it mean that the market is correcting the real value of BTC which is $100K?

but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle.  Grin
I think the halving is necessary to maintain the cyclical nature of the market, helping the operation and growth process take place in a more sustainable way. I think we are still just in the recovery phase, the uptrend will come after the halving and possibly after BTC creates a new ATH this year.

Many people have also talked about the 100K USD super cycle in 2021, but in the end we still see the cycle repeating.

We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.
Thank you very much for the image, I have attached the image link but temporarily cannot display the photo in the topic content.

You have a more optimistic view of the market than me, it is very possible that we have truly passed Optimism and are ready to wait for strong market growth.

For me, we are in the middle of these.
What I am only positive about is we are already done in the accumulation period, we are now going in markup where we will start to attract more investors, retails, and institutional investors because once we experience this, for sure we will experience more high rally upward.
Yes, when BTC surpassed 25K USD, we exited the accumulation zone to enter recovery and are ready for growth. Halving is coming very close, I think we will have 6-8 months of re-accumulation after halving for BTC to break 69K USD and conquer new higher price ranges.
legendary
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(......)
  • Accumulation: Prices slowly rise with low investor participation.
  • Markup: Rallying prices attract more investors, accelerating the upward trend.
(......)
For me, we are in the middle of these.
What I am only positive about is we are already done in the accumulation period, we are now going in markup where we will start to attract more investors, retails, and institutional investors because once we experience this, for sure we will experience more high rally upward.
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but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle.  Grin

I think this is just a mini bull. If we followed the sequence of the last bull run seasons. We knew that the real bull run started after the halving. So if we are at this level without that then we could expect a higher price for bitcoin after halving and in the real mega bull season. But if that means theres a change on the historical pattern made then theres a new narrative that will trigger a bull effect and Im will be thrill to know if this is not start with bitcoin itself.

Should this thread be on bitcoin discussion instead?
If the current trend continues then we may migrate from the so called muni bull run into full blown bull market and this is the best time to speculate market prices and using Bitcoin as a base case in the discussion even though,  other coins are also following closely with they wide rang of market coverage.

I have seen some coins doing 5x price already and that is a good sign of what we should expect in the fituryand how we best react to them in the long run.
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but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle.  Grin

I think this is just a mini bull. If we followed the sequence of the last bull run seasons. We knew that the real bull run started after the halving. So if we are at this level without that then we could expect a higher price for bitcoin after halving and in the real mega bull season. But if that means theres a change on the historical pattern made then theres a new narrative that will trigger a bull effect and Im will be thrill to know if this is not start with bitcoin itself.

Should this thread be on bitcoin discussion instead?
sr. member
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We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.
Definitely right as the market started to pumps again and the thrill is about to begin especially once the halving is done.
Many are rushing into the market now, you can see good news all over the social media platform regarding big institutions investing with Bitcoin and even some government releasing their positive statements towards Bitcoin adoption so yeah, we are in the stage of Optimism and Belief and if the good news continues, we might see another peak.
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We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.






legendary
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why does it always mean a downtrend when they say The Correction Stage?  can't it mean that the market is correcting the real value of BTC which is $100K?

but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle.  Grin
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Before now I see altcoins and Bitcoin being at a recovery stage,  but when the price of Bitcoin reached 50k+ and other coins like ethereuem followed suit it became a baseline for the bull market,  so for that,  bitcoin and other coins are already at the bull position even though we have not achieved the previous all-time high level at this stage.

For that, we can say that,  bitcoin as a coin is in a bull position and heading to the next all-time market price that will be a reasonable milestone and we may see that before the next Bitcoin halving cycle.
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Many familiar with the "market sentiment chart" (describing the psychological stages of a market cycle) recognize its influence on price action. We have Disbelief, Hope, Optimism, Belief, Thrill, Euphoria, Complacency, Anxiety, Denial, Panic, Capitulation, Anger and back to Disbelief, but in short, the traditional market cycle typically outlines four phases:

  • Accumulation: Prices slowly rise with low investor participation.
  • Markup: Rallying prices attract more investors, accelerating the upward trend.
  • Distribution: As the market peaks, profit-taking begins, slowing the rise.
  • Markdown: Selling intensifies, leading to sharp price declines[1].


While human behaviors may evolve slowly over millennia, I believe that their emotions driving investment decisions remain relatively constant. These choices fuel buying/selling patterns, shaping market fluctuations, then market fluctuations affect investor psychology, creating a feedback loop. Combined with capital flows and asset price movements, this loop generates the cyclical nature of financial markets.

Despite Bitcoin reaching 52.5k USD and the crypto market exceeding 2T USD, my subjective view positions it within the "Disbelief" stage, rather than "Hope". Diverse opinions exist, some anticipate an uptrend, while others await a drop to 20k USD for bargain buying. Perhaps a robust upward spike is needed for widespread optimism and hope to prevail.

However, that is just my subjective opinion, I would like to get your opinion:
  • In your opinion, which stage best describes the current crypto market sentiment? What reasoning underlies your perspective?
  • Do you believe market makers leverage sentiment charts to manipulate the crypto market? Why or why not?

References:
[1] Mastering the Market Cycle – Mindset and Strategies
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