Topic: Which strategy is a longer term winner?Buy ASIC or buy Bitcoin now? (Read 1945 times)
ASIC is worth it but only for the LOOOONNNGGG haul, like 1-2 YEARS of 24/7 mining. I think if you want short term profits, its all about either playing poker with BTC on Seals With Clubs or just buy BTC and hope they go up to $50/per coin (they will this year, after it goes down a bit).
March 01, 2013, 10:00:59 AM
I am tired of the word crash being used to loosely, saying a bear trend is a crash or a bear day, or week is like saying a Honda Civic is a fast car.
I agree, although, I have seen a few fast Honda Civics. They are usually annoyingly loud though.
February 28, 2013, 10:59:45 PM
There's no point in mining or buying when there's no shortage of morons in Newbies and Currency Exchange to take Bitcoins from LOL
February 28, 2013, 05:02:34 PM
what correction? BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg
If you look at the period before the last crash, the climb was of a similar gradient. Actually, it wasn't much of a crash at all, more like a glide.
The point is, its happened to the Bitcoin exchange before, so it's not impossible, and I would guess it's more likely than not.
I am tired of the word crash being used to loosely, saying a bear trend is a crash or a bear day, or week is like saying a Honda Civic is a fast car.
February 28, 2013, 04:58:53 PM
Try this calculator, set the price at 15 usd since it hasnt been updated to incorporate the change to 25 coins per block. Based on the numerous assumptions that the network will hit upwards of 800TH by years end, set the difficulty to 1.04. Gives you a rough estimate.
http://striketeam.ath.cx/btccalc/btccalc.php
http://striketeam.ath.cx/btccalc/btccalc.php
February 28, 2013, 03:56:24 PM
what correction? BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg
If you look at the period before the last crash, the climb was of a similar gradient. Actually, it wasn't much of a crash at all, more like a glide.
The point is, its happened to the Bitcoin exchange before, so it's not impossible, and I would guess it's more likely than not.
February 28, 2013, 03:20:28 PM
BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg
This is all absolutely true. However, you can not deny that the price of bitcoin has gone up a little too far and too fast.
While we are on a different playing field only matters as much as the players.
Conventional economic theory is based on the players AND the playing field so sat least some of it may still apply.
Wait for the correction - Might have already started, the price just dropped from $34.50 down to $32.10 in the last hour.
February 28, 2013, 02:51:55 PM
wait for the correction.
what correction? BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg
what correction? BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg
February 28, 2013, 02:06:41 PM
Start with a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. there's a good one on BitcoinX.com
That doesn't take into account the two variables that no one can predict, Network Growth and Exchange Rate, so there's no use calculating anything with today's numbers.
Of course there are tons of variables that the calculator can not account for. But you have to do some type of calculations. Otherwise you're just making decisions on investments based on complete speculation and your (or somebody else's) gut feeling.
Do the math with the calculator. Do the math with the buy and hold strategy I agree, wait for the correction. Then make your decision.
My point is, DO THE HOMEWORK before making any investment.
February 28, 2013, 01:20:07 PM
Start with a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. there's a good one on BitcoinX.com
That doesn't take into account the two variables that no one can predict, Network Growth and Exchange Rate, so there's no use calculating anything with today's numbers.
I alwasy just ignore exchange rate when I'm using that calculator. I figure it'll be a wash.. if the rate changes, your mined coins will be worth exactly the same as your bought coins..
Ultimately, the only use for the tool is figureing out if your various guess values for Network Growth would result in a profit or a loss.
Sigg
February 28, 2013, 12:11:22 PM
Start with a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. there's a good one on BitcoinX.com
That doesn't take into account the two variables that no one can predict, Network Growth and Exchange Rate, so there's no use calculating anything with today's numbers.
I'd say in the long run it's more profitable to mine, but it's a little more involved and requires more time for upkeep.
If you don't have that sort of time on your hands, I'd say just buy and hold, but if I was gonna do that, I'd personally wait for the correction.
February 28, 2013, 11:53:46 AM
Start with a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. there's a good one on BitcoinX.com
February 28, 2013, 09:47:28 AM
I am tempted to buy one ASIC, but right now the momentum of BTC make me wonder probably it is easier and return is higher if you just pour your fiat tokens into BTC directly.
ASIC has the good property that you are essentally averaging your cost some way, but ultimately returns depend the whole mining communities behavior and the sucess of specific vendors, so there is a lot inherent volatility in a different way.
What is the correct way to synthesize the analytical framework to make this decision?
I know people will mine for fun, and I think it is fun too, but in that case I will just buy the smalllest unit and do it at home as a learning experience, the total investment is not material.
ASIC has the good property that you are essentally averaging your cost some way, but ultimately returns depend the whole mining communities behavior and the sucess of specific vendors, so there is a lot inherent volatility in a different way.
What is the correct way to synthesize the analytical framework to make this decision?
I know people will mine for fun, and I think it is fun too, but in that case I will just buy the smalllest unit and do it at home as a learning experience, the total investment is not material.
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