This discussion gets to the heart of why I never understood the evil booga-booga about controlling more than 50% of the hashing power:
- There's nothing magical about 50% which would ensure a series of blocks found in a row when you want to perform your double-spend
- The double-spend would get noticed by all clients who have the full block chain (which right now is all of them)
Am I missing something, or is the "50%" risk overblown?
Yes. In all honesty the 50% stuff is overblown. Especially when you consider that no big mining pool would do anything to damage the value of bitcoins. Any manipulation would be easily viewable, it couldn't go undetected. If an outside group wanted to destroy the system they could muddle the waters and hurt things a lot with > 50%, but there is no real posibilty of "forging" new coins or "stealing" coins you own (at least not the ones with a significant number of confirmations). Even if they only have a few confirmations, they can only be returned to the person who owned them before you, they cannot be sent anywhere. Nothing to help people make a profit (unless they are shorting bitcoins.)
If a large pool started trying to "rebuild" the block chain backward, it would get noticed sooner or later, people would leave the pool, and some things would have to be sorted out. But your coins would be mostly safe. Any coins you received during or slightly before the attack may disappear. The attack could happen almost as easily with 51% as with 49%, it all depends on luck, and for it to really work you would need 60-70%, maybe more.
Worrying about the attack is just for the purist who want to ensure nothing can go wrong, even if minor. Securing our wallets is much more important.
If an outside attacker had more power than the entire network for long enough to rebuild everything, and continued attacking any attempts to reboot, then it could be the end of bitcoin. That is why we reward our miners, they secure our network from such an attack. And it is quite secure right now. It would take a _massive_ effort to overthrow the network. And it gets 30% harder each week.