Author

Topic: Who Buys? (Read 1149 times)

legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1010
March 05, 2013, 10:01:16 AM
#15
The market cap has increased by that much, but 200m$ wasn't bought on the exchanges, just a touch over a million dollars

It would be nice if Mt. Gox were to release another one of their "Transparency" reports.   The last one (August 2012) reported roughly about $5 million in deposits (in some 30 day period) and from the publicly available trading volume numbers for July there was trading about $25 million traded at all of Mt. Gox over the same period.  

So if that ratio were to continue today (even assuming 100% of those deposits were new inflows to make purchases, like buy and hold, of bitcoins then there are inflows of 1/5th of the trading volume.    In February there was under $50 million USD worth of trades on all Mt. Gox markets combined and Mt. Gox represents  maybe 80% so, let's say there was $60 million USD of trading on all markets in February.  If that 1/5th metric holds (a big if, but it is all I got to work with), that would mean there was only $12 million of new buying needed to increase the exchange rate from $20.51 to $33.38, or by about $140 million increase.

So put another way, an inflow of just 5% of the previous value of all bitcoins resulted in a 60% increase in the exchange rate.

And thus a $200 increase in the exchange rate took only $16 million of new buying.

That's not to say these cash inflows are not significant but what isn't being appreciated is that this $200 million in increase in total dollar valuation/TDV ("market cap" is a misnomer) will vaporize when all these people who in aggregate believe they can tap into this $200 million of wealth and the majority of it simply never existed,

Which makes the old saying even more timely ... nobody ever went broke taking a little bit home.
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
March 05, 2013, 09:29:56 AM
#14
Are there any estimates about his personal wealth? How much of the 200M$ increase in market cap Bitcoin has experienced in the last weeks can actually come out of his pockets?

The market cap has increased by that much, but 200m$ wasn't bought on the exchanges, just a touch over a million dollars, this guy finds that kind of money stuck down the back of his couch.

Mt. Gox (USD/dwolla/SEPA)
30-day Volume (Currency) 45,090,613.51 USD
source: http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

$45M is not pocket money, also not for Mr. Kim

where is this potential different from what it was half a year ago?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1564043

and that makes you 6 times more comfy when spending USD on BTC?
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
March 05, 2013, 09:18:47 AM
#13
where is this potential different from what it was half a year ago?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1564043
hero member
Activity: 882
Merit: 1006
March 05, 2013, 09:13:25 AM
#12
Are there any estimates about his personal wealth? How much of the 200M$ increase in market cap Bitcoin has experienced in the last weeks can actually come out of his pockets?

The market cap has increased by that much, but 200m$ wasn't bought on the exchanges, just a touch over a million dollars, this guy finds that kind of money stuck down the back of his couch.
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
March 05, 2013, 09:11:34 AM
#11
Are there any estimates about his personal wealth? How much of the 200M$ increase in market cap Bitcoin has experienced in the last weeks can actually come out of his pockets?
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
March 05, 2013, 09:03:47 AM
#10
Ok, the folks in the stock market routinely invest in futures and buy/sell worthless mortgages and tons of other risky things. Also, they are trading in and holding fiat which is guaranteed to depreciate in value significantly.

Bitcoin is really not THAT big of a risk compared to what they are currently doing.

But I agree that if there is one person in the market buying a big chunk o' change, it is Kim.
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
March 05, 2013, 09:02:14 AM
#9

a (surely not complete) list of what this guy touched and what went to shit shortly afterwards:

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_box blueboxing
*he first offered warez on his mailboxes, kept the records and traded them off to the police
*the company Data Protect Consulting GmbH
*letsbuyit.com
*Young Intelligent Hackers Against Terrorism (Yihat)
*Trendax Inc.
*megaupload.com

this guy is no good, trust me
hero member
Activity: 882
Merit: 1006
March 05, 2013, 08:47:20 AM
#8
this guy had his money where the FBI could freeze it... and did

I know I know, but he's obviously taken a keen interest in Bitcoin recently, and I just can't help but wonder, maybe its a possibility it wasn't all frozen (how is he paying for mega, and what about the profit from mega), and maybe hes putting whats left into BTC to avoid it being frozen.

Over a million dollars was bought up recently, if it was the work of one person, then this is the most likely guy and definitely the kind of person who would tolerate the risk.
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
March 05, 2013, 08:43:32 AM
#7
this guy had his money where the FBI could freeze it... and did
also he tweets a lot if the day is long
hero member
Activity: 882
Merit: 1006
March 05, 2013, 08:41:50 AM
#6
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
March 05, 2013, 08:40:55 AM
#5
where is this potential different from what it was half a year ago?
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1080
March 05, 2013, 07:43:56 AM
#4
I think there are plenty of buyers.  The potential for Bitcoin price appreciation is ridiculously high.  It is a fairly risky play, but the potential is huge.  In my opinion it has more potential upside than any investment I have seen in my lifetime.

Indeed, after all it's not like a new form of money is created every year.  Rather once in a millennium.
member
Activity: 82
Merit: 10
March 05, 2013, 07:42:27 AM
#3
I think there are plenty of buyers.  The potential for Bitcoin price appreciation is ridiculously high.  It is a fairly risky play, but the potential is huge.  In my opinion it has more potential upside than any investment I have seen in my lifetime.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1080
March 05, 2013, 07:40:55 AM
#2
If I were to guess, I'd blame young men working in the financial sector.   They do it quietly and slowly, but they do have lots of money to spend (after all, the fact that they get lots of money easily is part of the reason why bitcoin exists in the first place).
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
March 05, 2013, 07:36:48 AM
#1
Who buys?

Old timers? Nay.
Users new to BTC? Unlikely that they increased at such a rate...
Silkroad users? Not much more than usually... Actually less btc because of higher value.
One guy with deep pockets? hm...
-> More than one entity with deep pockets and quite some balls I might add!

Whose left to sell?

Old timers? If they didn't sell already they don't really need the money and have the time and brains to wait!
People which bought in at 30? I don't think you take such a risk for a 25% gain.
Miners? If then only to buy ASICS I guess, which is limited in availability until now...
SR Vendors? Don't sell more than SR buyers buy BTC for, that's for sure.
-> Not many as the price clearly indicates


Any other explanations?
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