Topic: Who is selling? Fractonal CEX (Read 176 times)

Yes. looks like a normal market correction but it's been boring in recent days. but it seems like it's real and I also happened to read one of these posts https://www.theblock.co/post/273768/ftx-sold-nearly-1-billion-of-grayscale-spot-bitcoin-etf-shares-report . This also has an impact on BTC price movements seeming to slow down.

But he said people are waiting for the price to rise high before they can sell. So that means BTC price is not yet high. It's just that there is no supply as he said. But is that even possible that BTC will ran out of supply? I mean there must still be a supply left, because there are still people who are hodling it.

And there are also traders who trade actively, so people can always buy a BTC. The one you describe there of selling a BTC at an even expensive price, sounds like an auction. Only big buyers are involved here. But for the retail investors, they can buy BTC at a specified price in the exchanges. It may still be expensive sometimes but they can choose to buy at smaller portions.

Rumor has it that grayscale investors are selling their assets because they are afraid of the Bitcoin ETF issue, so they prefer to play it safe and sell first and wait until the time is right to buy again, or they really want to get out of the market and look for another place to invest, who knows.

This means that the condition you describe is not that you cannot buy Bitcoin, it's just that the price is too expensive due to the lack of Bitcoin circulating in the market. Because when someone sells at a high price there will always be someone who buys at a very special price offer for Bitcoin through any market, so this kind of thing is actually not running out or not being able to buy. However, because there are very few people selling it and also the opening price is very expensive.

People are still waiting for that special price to occur before they can release their BTC to the market to make a cool money but people like us don't have huge amount of BTC to sell and we are running out of BTC because, we sold when the price hit $40k last year december to cash out Christmas and new year celebration money to sustain the family.

 Well, despite how long the bear run will live in the market, there are some hodlers who will not Shake with the present condition than to continue hodling their BTC till they are satisfied with the current price in the market before they can sell to make profits and such people are still hodling in this season.

GBTC, miners, leverage traders who got liquidated and had to take a loss?



I see that you don't understand how trading works. You always need 2 people toi participate, one with fiat money and another one with the asset (bitcoin). When a sell order executes on exchange it doesn't matter how much bitcoin is on the market. It can be 3 million, it can be 1 million. What matters is how much money in open buy orders is there. If 100 bitcoin is worth 4 million dollars and there's only 3 million on exchange in open orders, you drop 100BTC and the market tanks completely, but it won't be the value that tanks but spot price. There's a difference!

It is true that holding is really a way of understanding why there are less selling going on. I mean bull run is coming up, that has to be something that needs to be worked on, it is really a very big deal if you know what you are doing, it is really a big deal. I know that it is not going to be all that simple, but it should be pointed out on how to do that, it is really a big deal. I know that it is not going to be all that easy, but holding is the most important thing.

Yes, we all need money sometimes, but most major companies with billions do not need cash that much, so they are willing to hold it a long more time. I think they are the main reason why there are not that many sales going around, not in a bulk manner at the very least.

There are like millions and millions of bitcoin/crypto traders worldwide lmao idk how OP expect that there are no sellers. Like when you buy BTC, you're literally buying from a seller lol. Like there literally should be sellers for the market to work.

If people have run out of BTC and can't buy it, the price of BTC will rise very high because the demand is always there while the supply is no longer there, some people who keep it for a long time will probably sell their BTC at a high price.

Well, we can't be certain for who is selling, but that's how the market works right? Prices goes to $48k then someone is going to sell make profits easy as that, we don't need to question who is selling as obviously everyone wanted to make money and that is the end goal here.


And why would CEX do that? What would they deal with such kind of practice?


Lol, I think there is enough BTC for everyone  sell, or maybe there are average joe not willing to sell their BTC? I just think you make things complicated and over thinking, that just because ETF approved and people expecting the price to go up immediately and investors buying, not selling.

How are you so certain that people have run out of BTC to sell? Markets are very complex, not because we had a really bad last year it doesn't automatically mean that there will be no selling pressure. Not every single person who holds bitcoin are committed long-term holders.

After the etf was approved there was many parties that were selling. The largest was the GBTC holders because the premium was pretty much at par. People held for many years and wanted to finally get out.

There is also rumors that FTX is selling their bitcoins since the price is near highs. They also sold like $1B or so back in November if I recall. And they will keep selling until they liquidate everything.

Last there are those that bought when the blackrock announcement was made and they made a good profit and decide to take profits. Sure it’s possible that it might go to new ATHs but their position is in great profit and they want to cash out.

For this answer generally of "who is selling" then HODL waves on-chain data is quite useful here, at least for what type of holders are selling. When it comes to long-term sellers, then the 2-3y appear mainly responsible, as they begun moving coins again in December last year, dropping from 16% to 14% of holders (holding 400K less BTC). Notably most of them have been holding since 2022, but now these holders are almost exclusively 2021 buyers (+ two weeks of 2022), so they are taking very late profits or otherwise getting out of previously losing positions. Last year it was 1-2y holders, so it has been the 2021 buyers since 2022 basically.

As a reminder, over 70% of holders have been holding for more than 1 year. While this is good for the stability of Bitcoin, it does also mean there is a lot of supply that could become available in the near future, usually once the bull market begins. There has otherwise been an increase in Bitcoin being available on exchanges since late December last year, ie an extra 100K BTC, the highest amount since mid 2023, which is usually attributed to selling pressure, so there is that as well. In the current on-chain climate, only coins older than 3 years are really considered "locked up" right now.

Has nothing to do with CEX fractional BTC trading or whatever, what's occurring is all transparently documented on-chain as referenced.

I doubt that.

There was this point that no one actually wants to sell and maybe that's from the point after 2021 bull run. And that means that the sky is the limit on the next cycle.

CEXes are needed to sell every time there will be buyer. At some point as well, there goes the few of them that has to halt trading or specific buy orders for them to mitigate the influx of the traders on them.

Now with bigger players, this is why everyone needs to set their timing on when they're going to sell. Most of these fin companies are willing to take and buy all of the possible Bitcoins that they can have especially that there were BTC spot etfs approved already.

I mean all the CEX in the world do need to sell at times, but they usually gather it around for a OTC sale. You are Elon Musk, you are looking to buy 500 million dollars worth of bitcoin, what are you going to do, open an account at Coinbase and buy from the market? Of course not, you contact someone at Coinbase, they handle it for you. All those trading fee's we are paying? All those millions and even probably billions all exchanges combined? Where do you think places like Microstrategy and others are buying their bulk bitcoins from? So I do not think that CEX are selling the way you think they do, they are just not dropping the price. It was way overblown, and we are getting little correction, it happens all the time.

BTC allows us to see more or less how much BTC is being traded. That vast majority of BTC is not moveing and sits off the market. About 2-3 (30%) million BTC seem to be actively traded.

On top of that, whoever sold in the repeat cycles of 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, have been wiped out from the market, meaning each time you just get people more commitied to holding.

So what I don't understand is Who selling, becuase there is almost no one left in BTC that is selling any significant amounts.

Are CEX's selling and dealing in fractional BTC tradeing?

I am saying is people have run out of BTC to sell. So what then is being sold?