It's a bull vs bear standoff. Bulls are holding bitcoins and are waiting for the price to rise, and bears are waiting with fiat for the price to go down. That's why volume is so low, everyone is waiting for the other side to give up hope and cave in. I think bulls have the advantage here, it's easier and safer to hold bitcoins on the exchanges right now.
As always there is another view in any speculation.
Because it's not safe to keep fiat in exchanges as you said , probably the bears hold their fiat in their banks , so when the price skyrockets...nobody will have cash to buy so.. it won't skyrocket.
But in general I agree with you , people are waiting , and I want them to wait 4 another few months. A bit of stability in bitcoin price is all a merchant wants.