Topic: Why (and when) the next bubble start. (Read 4393 times)

The real fun starts after the next halving if the market doesnt suffer unrecoverable despair. Sit back and watch several mining companies got from million dollar operations to $1 bargain shops in the next 1-2 years

Maybe after christmas. I wish.

Right! It just have broken out of a wedge and 30min BB line! To the moon!!!  

The most important thing is that we are both right . Cheers!

You're lagging, it already started october 5th 

Bubble is starting... TODAY.

Good news is not really affecting price.
We have seen a lot of good news lately but no price increase.
News is not enough, people should act according the news.
For instance, when paypal announces bitcoin integration, people should really use the integration otherwise the news is worthless.

Bitcoin is still progressing. Give it time.

It should happen soon, more good news should appear for that to happen.

Everyone is waiting for next halving... hopefully it turns out to be bubble and not crash...

 Around the next halving we will most likely see another bubble. I think we will see one more smaller bubble between now and then though.

The answer is much more simple then the ones given.

The bubble will start when the short bears have found the bottom, the price stabilises and then starts to rise. As confidence grows the Bulls come out to play.

The real question is this:

How much money is sitting on exchanges waiting to buy. The more there is then the faster the stampede, the longer it will sustain and the higher it will rise

My opinion, for what its worth is.

The bottom was achieved at $287 although most would say it was circa $300.

The recent rise to $380 which has moved up to $415 and oscillated suggests resistance waiting for the next push.

I have 120 BTC set to sell at $420 and intend to buy back in sub $400 however if the price starts to ascend quickly, I have a warning programmed into my phone every $5 increment, then i will see how far its willing to jump...

My gut says that we could easily see an 80 to 100 point rise in a small time frame.

The question is not, "When will the next bubble start?"

The question is, "When will Bitcoin grow to include enough users to justify such a monetary price increase?"
 
The good news is that we may already be at that point. Bitcoin's infrastructure has increased dramatically since last year and we even protocols based on its own blockchain (check out Counterparty) are gaining traction with businesses. There are extremely bullish happenings in the fundamentals of this technology.

We picked up many new traders in the recent bear market which will stabilize large price increases for the time being. This is normal and should not be criticized but will inhibit the price from shooting straight up. They too, however, will pull their sell orders in the event of a large increase, which has happened recently if you read over at r/bitcoinmarkets where many "pro" traders hang out. Also, many of them come from traditional market backgrounds, don't always have a deep understanding of what Bitcoin is (but will happily short it for profit), and will take those profits earlier. This leaves the large run-up (which lasted less than a month last year) to speculators with more experience in this specific market, who have a deep understanding of the protocol and what the ecosystem is up to, and are well-connected to early adopters and often trade with proprietary algorithmic bots.

I speak about both groups as they are totally separate but there is probably some overlap. Still, these guys have an obvious edge over traditional traders who use margin and are used to scalping profits in the wake of larger markets like forex. There were a few of these guys here last year, taunting that they would "wipe the floor" with us, then pick up the pieces.

The psychological effect of a bubble is very powerful and driven by a strong natural desire to increase one's own wealth and position... aka greed. Last year, we entered the "foothills" of the exponential price run-up for a few months from July to October (roughly). Once that happens, we grind slowly upwards with pauses along the way as bullish sentiment cements in the minds of traders and coins begin to disappear from exchanges. Then it's a matter of time before a catalyst lights the fuse and the price explodes upwards against all logical expectations. My gut tells me something similar is beginning to play out. Sellers have decreased and lots of dumb money who shorted toward the bottom is either out of the game or forced to buy back less ammunition than they had before.

I don't think that you read the proposal, but basically there will be a major (XBT) and a minor unit (at 1:100 of the major unit and this is presumably satoshi)
We will get 21 trillion major units (which suggests dollar parity at some point in the future) and 2.1 quadrillion satoshis (same as estimated now by 2140)

My unit is 1 satoshi. Pretty cheap if you tell me.

Of course, bitcoin does not care, but people do.
If bitcoin is mostly a commodity (like gold), then ~$400 is fine
If bitcoin is mostly a currency as was suggested in prior posting, then $400 for a main currency unit is too much. There are no other currencies that are so expensive per unit.
It is purely psychological, but to deny that people are put off by this price is unrealistic.
The solution is in Bitcoin Foundation proposal. 1,000,000 XBT per each BTC.

Gold is also expensive at $1200 a troy ounce, people still buy it.
You can also buy smaller coins or go for an alt-coin (silver).

Gold doesn't care if it's expensive, neither does bitcoin.

Why wouldn't it?

you can divide BRK-A by using BRK-B instead  .
I think the point is the higher is the price of an item/commodity/even currency, the less interest is in buying and selling it (trading) for purely psychological reasons.
Most people don't want to buy fractions of most things, so this argument is largely mute.
A few people I know commented: bitcoin is too expensive.

1. BRK-A is not a currency or money
2. You cannot divide BRK-A

This is the last hope for perma bull.

Things might turn out quite unexpected for most of them.

Why does everyone assume this will happen??

Not for another 4-5 years AT LEAST

no,another 45 day-comment -period will come after the second draft tomorrow ("official" release date)

I vote for something else. Bubble will start when each BTC will convert/change to 1,000,000 XBT (as implied by Bitcoin Foundation proposal), everyone will feel like a millionaire, transactions will greatly increase and it (tremendous rally) will start. When:Q1-Q2 of 2015. Destination: 1XBT=$1 in 10-15 years
We will never reach BTC=1mil via mass market if unit stays the same (psychological). How many people trade BRK-A?

in September.

I Think we won't see next halving in near future
my guess : next halving, mid 2016 

Never knew maturity meant renouncing revolutionary ambitions

Whenever crypto decides to abandon its 'revolutionary' attitude and gain greater maturity.

Regulations are inevitable.

The ETF cannot be built into the price, no one knows when or if it will happen.

Bitcoiners have had the experience of the price jumping after the previous halving. Best believe with the additional attention we have now there will be some front runners

The theory was that since difficulty adjusts every 2 weeks, the halving would cause most miners to turn off their rigs...if that happened at the beginning of the 2 weeks then difficulty would be so difficult for the few remaining miners that they would never be able to mine the amount of coins necessary for the difficulty to ever adjust again.

Of course, nothing close to this happened, difficulty went up and the price jumped. But Bitcoiners are so short sighted that the price only tends to go up after something has happened, not in anticipation of it. The ETF is not built into the price, the halving will not be built into the price.

The infrastructure will be much more mature this time around.

That didn't happen at the last halving...there was a lot of FUD from the miners about how Bitcoin would die because mining would stop and everything would crash.

You should have been there in 2010.
Otherwise, stop complaining and enjoy the ride with any amount you have, just like everybody else.

Sure. How does one magic five digit coins into existence or enough fiat to buy same?

Realizing your wealth plan:

1. Stop being a pleb
2.
3. Profit!

Which helps us plebs how?

These events are *not* random.
They are carefully planned and all insiders made sure that they are loaded to the max before it goes public.

Assuming I'm right that someone with far too much money is pushing the price down to buy cheap off the market, we could stay down here until the next halving at least. Why would he stop?

Other than that, the next halving obviously. Price will either have to double or a lot of miners will lose a lot of money and the network will slow down until the next adjustment. Don't think whoever is playing with the price wants to hurt the network like that, but who knows.

Random events like the winkle etf could do it, or someone deciding to keep a few billions in btc. But those are unknowns.

So I guess the next halving is my bet based on known factors.

I've voted anytime, just because i really don't know. But i don't think is random...

Next halving, but it's August not March 2016.

My thinking is price should rise significantly before the halving, in expectation of the reduced supply

It already started october 5th. We are now heading for the top which will be before november 20th according to my prediction which I advertise for months already.
<-- look left.

I came to my prediction by interpolating 2 different types of bitcoin charts.
Although it seems wrong, I still stick to my prediction untill november 20th

When the ETF happens the price will rise significantly.

It is random

But we can have the final capitulation in 2016, because of the halving

Does anyone think that it's the bubbles now?

I also think it's gonna happen at the end of the winter. But a little bit earlier than March-April. I'd say February-March 2015.

Somewhere in 2016.
Because the BTC mined at that time is halved, which means supply to market is suddenly cut by 50%. This will bump the price significantly.

Next halving!!, half the dumping triple the price...

Well first period of comments ends this week.

Should be followed by a second draft which I expect will require an additional 90 days of public feedback.

Depending on how long it takes for second and final draft to be approved, my conservative guesstimate would be we are looking at March-April 2015.

I'm crossing fingers for a quicker resolution though  

Thanks. What time should it happen?

Voted anytime.

Issuance of the NYDFS BitLicenses could've been an option

Here are the options:

1. The seeming regularity of bubbles is just coincidence. Next bubble can happen any time.
2. There is 22 months period. Jan13 + 22mo = Beginning of November.
3. Last rally started 3.5 months after bottom. September + 3.5mo = Mid January 2015.
4. Bubble is 3 months late. Ergo (by Taleb's rule of thumb) we should wait 3 more months, till end of January 2015.
5. Rally happens each 8 months. Oct13 + 16mo = beginning of February 2015.
6. Taleb2. Downtrend goes for 11 months. Ergo, wait another 11 months, till September 2015.
7. Things move 3 times slower than in 2013, so Oct13+3*8 = October 2015.
8. Super-wedge apex. The top line going through 1163 and bottom line going through 275 will cross by November 2015.
9. Taleb3. We are waitning for ETF for 15 months. Ergo, by Taleb's rule, another 15 months, till January 2016.
10. After the next halving. March 2016.
11. After casino & pron sites all swithch to bitcoins. End of 2016.
12. Bubbles happened at ealry stage only: high incertanity -> wild guesses -> wild swings. Now it's realistic and professional, so no more bubbles.
13. Something else. (What and when?)

EDIT:
14. BitLicense. March-Apri 2015.