Topic: Why are the markets going up ,? but biz and unemployment is high ... (Read 165 times)

People have time but they never will, if they have thinking ability they might invest on apple stocks over buying apple latest gadjets after every update because there is only minor change in every update of their product but the price is 20% higher than the previous one so companies will never fall except few companies which have more debt.

Remember one major thing...

The world and the USA are so large and highly populated, and essentially interconnected through the Internet, that it will be difficult if not impossible to determine anything about the strength of markets.

If the whole Ponzi fiat system had crashed decades ago, we simply might not know it because the people are acting with fiat way differently than the Ponzi is.

In other words, the people of the world are keep fiat alive, simply by using it for their own purposes rather than as an investment. And the Big Bankers are finally realizing that it will take something like a fake Coronavirus pandemic to allow their own fiat Ponzi to fail... so they can introduce their next monstrous money madness.

You are right not all investors are workers, majority of investors in the market are really investing in the market in the past and still investing they are businessman or those who has savings for investing at the right time and this is the right time for them to invest, halving is coming and market stabilizing.

The stock market isn't the economy, and we all knew that priority to this. Economic data and everything regarding it (unemployment numbers, gdp, etc) is a lagging indicator of what is going on, it's pretty much telling you what has happened for the prior quarter but makes no attempt to forecast for the future (typically)

On the otherhand, the stock market tries to project where the biggest companies in the US (or the US market as a whole, as the market does include small, mid, and large firms) is going to be in the future.

Pretty good video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0

i don't think this is the bottom ,people now have time to rethink their life values / what's important in life

Let's look a bit at a few companies :

Apple --> gadgets ok but to expensive , developers have to pay 99 usd / year fee ,expect stock to drop in my opinion
Microsoft --> ok for games  ,photoshop ,illustrator and after effects ,l moved to linux ,if i want o play games i just use playonlinux ,for graphic design i use gimp ,it's free/open source ,now linux distros easy to use
JPMorgan Chase --> it's just a  bank  for USA market
Johnson & Johnson --> i never used their products ,not even once in my life
Exxon Mobil , Chevron  --> Oil Industry is dying
Visa --> Ok
Walmart --> we don't use it in Europe ,but ok company
Pfizer --> we don't use their products in Europe
UnitedHealth --> very few people buy private health insurance in Europe
Home Depot --> Similar company to Leroy Merlin in Europe , should be ok as people always build etc
Cisco Systems  --> I never used this compaany
Verizon --> People need to communicate , so ok company
Intel --> I only buy intel ,as they are the best when it comes to processors
Boeing --> People mostly use low cost  companies , in Europe they use airbus etc
Procter & Gamble --> good company , we all use it
Coca-Cola --> it will die as people want to drink natural juice ,and coca cola has become an expensive product
Merck & Co --> we use their products in Europe
Walt Disney --> i watched the cartoons when i was kid  , but i never bought a disney product ,maybe my family did but i don't remember
Nike --> Overrated , to expensive , there are better products cheaper
IBM --> i never used their products , but if they have success in quantum computing this company will live
McDonalds --> i moved to home cooked food ,it's healthier
3M --> it will survive
General Electric --> USA utility company
American Express --> it will die . in europe we don't use it
Caterpillar --> good products but expensive  
Goldman Sachs --> usa investment bank . we don't use it in Europe
Travelers Companies --> How ?




 
 



    

Because not everyone is living their life from their pay check, salaried class people are huge but people who own more assets are investors and nothing more.So they are waiting for the perfect opportunity so now started to invest when the price hits bottom which bring the prices to be increased.

It's because of banks stimulus packages such as quantitative easing and rate cuts. The fed had made a move to print unlimited money to save the US economy and buy those newly printed money with corporate debts, assets and soon stocks.
This is exactly what happened on the previous recession where the stock market is doing good but unemployment rate is staggering high.

The initial shock to the markets was when the lockdowns started. CV-19 had seemed to westerners to be a 'Chinese problem', something that would be limited to other countries as SARS and MERS were. As soon as it took hold in Europe, people started to panic. The markets plummeted. It wasn't the lockdowns that caused this precipitous drop, it was the fact that the lockdowns hadn't been expected and hadn't been factored in. As ever with a sudden big price movement, it didn't simply slow gently to a new minimum, instead it continued to drop sharply until enough people realised that it had fallen too far, and then a recovery started.
Crypto prices have been rising steadily for a month or so. Lockdowns and economic damage are now factored in. As the situation improves and countries around the globe start tentatively to re-open for business, money starts to flow back into stocks and indeed crypto.

I don't think people are buying crypto because they are looking around for investment opportunities, rather it is the money that fled that is starting to come back in. Same for stocks. It makes sense because prices are based on expectation of the future. CV-19 hit the world unexpectedly hard. Now it is a known, its effects are known, and so now price movements better match expectation, are more predictable, and so stocks and crypto become more enticing again.

The stock market isn't an exact representation of how the economy is doing. As you mentioned, it can be a speculation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-gdp-pimco/us-gdp-will-contract-30-in-second-quarter-5-in-2020-pimco-idUSKCN21Q2VL

The U.S. is set to reduce its GDP by 30% for Q2. The only numbers comparable are those in the Great Depression. The stock market isn't necessarily doing great but the gains we see is probably based upon the fact that most states are looking towards reopening.

Have you noticed that cryptos  and stocks  are going up?
Biz and unemployment is high...makes no sense ,why are the markets  going up ?
The only thing that is going down is oil...
Do investors know something we don' know ? are they speculating ?
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My hunch is that beside govs intervention ,is that people stay home now ,and some have cash on hand ,now they don't know what to do with it and they are trying to invest it in something or protect it from future inflation...else makes no sense why markets are up...