Topic: Why aren't I filthy rich yet? It's been like two months. (Read 11597 times)

Update: Second price target hit. Finally.

Why aren't I filthy rich yet? It's been like two years.

Taxes.

+1 being normal is being stupid, nearly by definition.

Look at how many people brag about how bad they are at whatever topic (Math typically) to try and fit in. Instead of bragging about being stupid - or in some people's cases (especially women) actually pretending to be stupid when in fact they're not - how about being like... oh shit! I need to use the restroom real quick, while frantically googling whatever they don't know - then coming back and learning/contributing to the topic?  (In your case kudos to asking questions)

HA! no. Stupid = Cool. Look at our reality TV. Look at our society. Look at every-damn-thing.

So, +1 wachtwoord....who wants to be "normal"? Fuck that.

I remember in class at any level (all the way through university) I was the one asking many (stupid) questions. Most people just like to keep quiet to avoid standing out I guess. Most people want to be normal. Being normal is the last thing I'd want to be.

I think that's part of the people for sure, Tirapon, but there are also quite a few on the opposite side of the spectrum as well. i.e., They assume they understand everything, and if you present something like bitcoin, and they have not heard of it yet, then they will automatically try to classify it as something they already have a good understanding of. In most cases, this would be "Ponzi scheme" or "fad" etc. as the idea of a new revolutionary idea that they haven't heard about is very unlikely in their mind. I have the hardest time dealing with these kinds of people. I will generally focus too much on one particular aspect of bitcoin that debunks their classification, only to have them reclassify it as something else on the spot. "Oh, well in that case it's _____." It's frustrating because these are smart people, with a lack of vision. Also, in some ways, their refusal to accept that you know more about this thing than they do, feels like an insult, but I know better than that. It's just a thought process, and it's a valid one most of the time. There's one person in particular who always comes back at me with "bitcoins aren't real", which I can't even understand. How are you determining what's real? Are dollars real? Are there authorities on realness? Does realness provide value? I'm not sure what you're saying!

Well, two years later, hopefully you are not NOW filthy rich, market cap now @ 4 billion.

Sorry it took so long!

Remember, most of the world's population still believe in fairies and monsters and things that go bump in the night.  Not a large stretch to imagine them having difficulty grokking bitcoin.  The good news is that you won't likely ever have to convince your friend or others like him.  If bitcoin gains the recognition we all hope it does, these people won't ever have to comprehend your arguments and will use it instead due to appeals to authority.

I think most people assume that things which they don't understand are much more complicated than they really are. That puts them off doing any research into new concepts such as cryptocurrency.

I have always taken an interest in things which I don't understand. It seems like the most natural thing in the world to just 'ask Google' when you don't know something - I mean, that's what it's for, right? My friends could never understand why I spent time looking up seemingly irrelevant things on the internet, and conversely, I could never understand why they wouldn't just look it up when they didn't know about something. 

This forum consists of those people who think for themselves, ask questions, and keep an open mind.

^^Thanks for that comment Bitburger. Even though I'm a contrarian (because other people are often wrong) it's nice to see someone state my exact world view every once in a while.

I think most people are just lazy and scared though instead of stupid. Most things they cannot (or will not) do aren't complicated at all and everyone that isn't retarded should be able to understand it. It's just disinterest (how odd that may seem).

You and everyone else here.  Dealing with that.  You need to understand - the vast majority of the population (90%) do nothing but live day to day.  They're happy with their 9-5 jobs, their cubicles, and they're content to just "exist".  They don't explore, inquire, or think outside the box at all.  It could be lack of intelligence or laziness.  I prefer to think its an intelligence thing.  But nobody cares because they don't care about most things.  The majority of humanity are sheep, lead by the herd.  Even mister Jesus Christ said this about us, accurately.  you're not a moron, and you're not crazy.   If you have an IQ worth noting, and you've evaluated the situation fully, then you're right, and they're wrong.  Its difficult biting my tongue, and it will be difficult not shoving it in their faces later.  That's the true challenge

Everyone on this forum will be filthy rich

Uh oh. The last time this thread was bumped (by me) was April 9.

This one is more explicit on how much you probably want:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJR1H5tf5wE

I don't see how that's relevant. I said I wanted to be filthy rich.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DJtHL3NV1o

Please take notice of the message dates.  It took me a couple pages.

what?! I've made more on this thing so far than my job pays me in the equivalent amount of time! I'm absolutely thrilled! I'm on board til its either in wal-mart, or at zero.

The trick is to sell some bitcoins. Sell 1k BTC on MtGox, you would at least upgrade your car and then some

Thirded.

Hah! That would *never* happen.

as someone who is 31, i agree.

LOL, well, at what price point are you a millionaire?

*bump*

Well, that's a little better, Bitcoin. Not good. But better. Now how about we quit playing games and get serious? I don't want to end up as one of those poor schmucks who still has to work when he's 35. 

woops, correcting my post. thanks.

Your calculation is a bit off there...
1 BTC = 1.01 bars of gold.

lol. there might be some truth to this.

This reminds me of a story (don't know if true) where sysadmins of some newly-aqcuired hellishly fast unix-machine had to add intentional delay to the prompt because people thought the commands they entered couldn't have possibly done their work sucessfully because they "didn't take enough time".

Back in the hype-days of 2011 a friend urged me to sell my coins (this was when we were just about passing $3, around easter or so). I said: "no, I'll hold them for a very long time and only sell if I really have to".  He said: "uhm, there must be some price at which even you will sell". I answered: "ok, true. I might sell some when the price hits one bar of gold".

I had in mind a 'bar of gold' as you'd see in a James Bond movie. A "Good Delivery" gold bar should be around 380 oz = 11.8 kg of gold.

Assuming 250,000 tons of gold exist aboveground and can be mined in the next 30 years that would amount to 250,000,000 kg / 12.5 kg/bar = 21,154,000 bars of gold.

Assuming gold and bitcoin turn out to be equal contenders, then:

21,000,000 BTC = 21,154,000 bars of gold

so

1 BTC = 0.99 bars of gold
1 BTC = 1.01 bars of gold

So it seems I'll never sell my stash of bitcoins.
So it seems I'll sell some of my bitcoins at some point.

EDIT: corrected thanks to SgtSpike

CRAP, than zipconf is turning our Bitgold in worthless foolsgold i guess.

Ideas can spread like wildfires, but not when they are still the first log.

I don't know if it is an accident, but Bitcoin really is like gold.
Aesthetically anyone who has used it must have that sense - it has a certain weight to it.
Having used if or nearly a year it does actually feel tangible - perhaps if it was totally easy and you didn't have to wait 1 hour for your 6 confirmations it would somehow feel trivial and worthless.
Waiting for those confirmations actually gives it weight and value. It adds something to its worth.

Some rebuttals:
1. Can he describe the current monetary system?  Or just how a money printing press physically works to make it really simple :-).  What about the anti-counterfeiting features?  Can he describe that in detail?  Then why insist on understanding all anti-counterfeiting details of BTC?  The details ARE too complicated right now but in the near future transfer will be as simple as touching cell phones.  That's what it means to be an early adopter.  If the details were easy BTC would be priced like gold/silver.

2. What stops people from doing the same to facebook, google search, nike shoes and a thousand other systems that are at this point pretty obvious?  The answer is that people DO, but unless their system solves a sub-problem better then the original it won't catch on.

3. An answer to "well, I just don't see it happening," could be to ask HOW unlikely they think it is (and bring up historic currency devaluation situations all over the world: Germany, Argentina, etc).  Use a bit of fear.  Ask them what's going to happen if their money is suddenly worth 1/10 its current value, if basically every import cost 10x as much.  How much peace of mind will be gained by putting 1% or less (just skip a few friday lunch-outs and put it in BTC instead) of their net worth in a commodity that will survive hyperinflation?  It could be gold, silver or BTC.  Gold/silver is pretty expensive now, and of course if you choose gold/silver you'd better have it on hand because a piece of paper secured by the very banking system that's in trouble won't be worth much.  And that jewelery cost you a lot more then its weight!  And you as an individual won't really be able to go on ebay and purchase stuff from China with it.  But if you lose the argument to gold/silver, be content, they'll come around to BTC eventually.  Even if they don't you'll at least have helped your local region if hyperinflation does hit your area.

What always makes people that I talk to spechless is the price chart from its beginnings to the end for MtGox USD. Especially when I describe the phenomenous Appreciation in price of 10000 times of its initial value to the all time high of June 2011. From there you can go on explaining that some people really believe it, use it and have become millionaires with it.

I've had a few friends read Erik Voorhees' introduction to Bitcoin (which btw, I think is phenomenal and you should read now if you haven't already).  http://evoorhees.blogspot.com/2012/04/bitcoin-libertarian-introduction.html

But like I said above, the responses I've gotten have been extremely skeptical.  What's really frustrating is that nobody seems to have much interest in actually challenging the argument that Bitcoin will be revolutionary.  Instead, I get the impression that they find something about the whole idea itself threatening (then again, that might be a response to the feverish look in my eyes as I explain it  ).  Most recently, when I pressed a friend for specific objections, here are the two he offered: (1) "it's too complicated; only geeks are going to be into it" and (2) "what's to stop someone else from copying the idea (or improving upon it) and coming out with 'Bytecoin'?"  I answered the first with the "internet before the invention of the web browser" analogy.  I further explained the positive feedback loop of network growth --> increased value --> increased incentive for user-friendly tools and innovations --> network growth, etc.  Re: the second objection, I explained network effects and Bitcoin's tremendous first-mover advantage. 

Of course, none of that convinced him.  Finally, his response was "well, I just don't see it happening." WTF?

Just as an aside I think the hot wallet problem can be solved by multi signature transactions: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BIP_0010

Excellent and helpful post!

We express the exchange rate in fiat currencies like USD and EURO as a proxy for purchasing power, which is indeed very important.

Bitcoin, to me, has always been about asserting control over means of exchange. I'm tired of people insulated from the 'real world' making monetary policy decisions to my detriment. I don't care if bitcoin is traded at 1 dollar or 100*. The fact that it exists is enough for me, in addition to its algorithmic controls and underlying protocol.

It is a financial revolution which allows the user complete freedom over how they allocate and spend money. A lot of people who deride bitcoin as a 'ponzi scheme' or other similar tropes miss this entirely. It is this fundamental misunderstanding that bolsters my confidence in bitcoin. Why? Because people are notorious for dumping on a idea that is too far of an 'outlier' from their lives.

This doesn't mean it is a bad idea, just that the framework in which it is born is too far removed from 'normal' comprehension. Revolutionary ideas usually take existing concepts and apply them in ways never considered before. This confluence of computational power, cryptography, peer-to-peer networks and currency simply has never existed before.

This is why I think bitcoin, as a system and as a concept, is highly disruptive and ultimately world-changing.

*(In fact, I make the case that relying on tertiary exchange into other currencies is merely a phase before total adoption, which would make conversions unnecessary.)

Show her this: http://vimeo.com/2244372 Then have the discussion.

No way the government is close to making this kind of call, specifically about Bitcoin. However, there are already reporting requirement, generally, about capital gains or sales. i.e. you make a cash sale, you better report it.

Again: lots of btc businesses were created last year, and reported profits. This year is the first year governments will be taxing them, and thereby legitimizing btc.

This makes sense. Inevitably, this year will see the legal status clarified, as these will be first tax filings after btc became valuable.

Hang in there man. Sometimes it takes as long as three months to become filthy rich from bitcoin. 

Don't forget all the hacks that are going on. It's impossible to make a bitcoin business 100% secure as long as hot wallets are needed. If you haven't been hacked yet, you were simple not yet a target - seems to hold some truth here.

Why isnt Bitcoin closer to that 13600 USD/BTC already?
Because that number based on market share of 1% is what bitcoin may be valued once it actually gains that share. Atm we are looking at something like 0,000000000000000000000000000000000001% of all monetary transactions on the planet being settled using bitcoin (I made that number up ). So in fact it is rather suprising that bitcoin is valued at such high prices, considering your equation.

Seriously, I think a number of facts apply for which bitcoin is not valued higher or lower then it is right now. My favorite 5 of which are the following:
- Anonymousness of the whole bitcoin thing to the public
- Lacking adoption
- High risk of terminal failure of bitcoin
- Low market cap
- Strong competition


P.S.:
Good point. The problem is that this quality of bitcoin has yet to prove itself.

And I use vi you emacs sissy. 

Giving away bitcoins is the way to do it - give someone some bitcoins and they will take the time to find out what it is they've just been given.
A large company could invest in bitcoins and then give some away as a QR code with whatever they are selling and the value of their initial investment would increase, simply becasue of the publicity they generated for bitcoin by giving them away.

Bitcoin - It's more than a thing, it's an idea about stuff.

Great post ^

I carry around a Casasius physical bitcoin and often get the opportunity to show it and use it as a prop to help describe what Bitcoin is.  I also carry a second Casascius bitcoin, opened revealing the private key (previously spent), which is useful to understand how bitcoin is just data that can be used with a mobile or online.

I also have in my wallet in my back pocket a few strips of paper ... each a paper bitcoin wallet from BitAddress:
 - http://www.bitaddress.org
I have funded these with 0.1 BTC and have given them out in the same spirit as the Bitcoin faucet.  I do keep a copy of the private key and let the recipient know to redeem the code in 30 days (e.g., using "redeem" QR scanner on Mt. Gox Mobile app for Android) otherwise I recycle the funds to a new paper wallet address.

Additionally, what helps bitcoin move forward to is actually use Bitcoin today like we expect it will be used in the future.  For instance:

Purchase wireless prepaid refills using Bitcoins (there are now or will be soon three sources for this):
 - http://www.bitmit.net/en/user/TangibleCrypto  (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Cricket, etc.) (to be branded as CellCoin.net )
 
 - http://www.btcbuy.info/CallingCards.cshtml

And coming soon:
 - http://www.bitcoinwireless.com  (from BitInstant)


Or pay for all NewEgg, Amazon, eBay, Barnes & Noble, etc. purchases using bitcoins:
 - https://www.spendbitcoins.com/convert
 - http://www.btcbuy.info/Default.cshtml


Offer to broker the trade of bitcoins for others (friends, family, neighbors, etc.).  If you already have a Dwolla and Mt. Gox account, for example, keep an amount of USDs at bay so that if someone wants bitcoins, you are prepared to help them (which, of course, expands the community and helps us all).  But make sure to impress upon them the need to get set up on their own for the next time.     Same thing goes for someone wanting to cash out -- you can leave an open offer to buy bitcoins.    There is a line though between doing this infrequently and not-for-profit versus someone acting as a money service business in which they might have restrictions (in many jurisdictions).

Learn the bitcoin economy, and what bitcoins can buy.  We all know about Alpaca socks.  But do you know about Bitcoin Deals, which has a catalog of more than a 100,000 products, from travel luggage to toilet tissue:
 - http://www.BitcoinDeals.com

Or did you know that in more than a half dozen cities bus/rail fare transit passes can be reloaded using bitcoins?
 - http://bitfare.org

The Trade page on the Bitcoin wiki continually sees new additions:
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

Are there any "assets" at a bitcoin stock market which are interesting to you perhaps?  They aren't all mining endeavors.  Feed Ze Birds and ZipConf, for instance, are two issues whose success brings further commerce to bitcoin:
 - http://www.GLBSE.com

And Bitcoin doesn't have to be all business.  Do you have a buddy insisting your team isn't going to win?  There's an app for that:
 - http://www.BTCSportsbet.com
Or is there interest in the election?  Right now there is a bet with skewed odds on the chances who will win the presidential election:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=122
Or any number of topics:
 - http://www.BetsOfBitco.in

What it boils down to is, those holding bitcoins shouldn't just sit on them.  A position can be maintained at a steady level by spending bitcoins on goods and services and then replenishing the position to accommodate for that spending.  These actions help bitcoin businesses make it through this crucial period where the market might naturally not yet be large enough for the business to be viable.  But with each additional bitcoin used in commerce, these businesses can start to justify their existence.  Because the revenue stream for these endeavors is in bitcoins, they then use the proceeds and profits for spending and that spurs further economic activity.  Your spending has a multiplier effect in the bitcoin economy.

And a much wider bitcoin economy is what is needed to justify over the long term the exchange rate at a level anywhere near where it has risen to ($55 million "market cap", currently).

Something I like to remember is that bitcoin makes a much better savings money than any government money ever and a better spending money than gold. That is a killer combination. It seems possible that in the very long run it will hold more value than all government money and all gold combined. Then after that there is the fact that the world's wealth tends to grow anyway so there will be more wealth to store. Then on top of that bitcoin will likely increase the rate of the growth of wealth in the world because it allows easier trade and more incentive to accumulate wealth to save.

It's a me Mario money



I think it will do well for some time My wife sees it as free money....Can't complain about free money

I'm also super-bullish on Bitcoin.

But you have to realize that the masses don't really care about Bitcoin as long as there are established systems that work practically just as well, such as Paypal.

Currently, it's only the nerds and the bankers that are interested in Bitcoin.

What is needed IMHO for a breakthrough is some niche market that really profits a lot from using Bitcoin, such as money remittances.

And it's worth spreading for.

Sorry, had to do it. 

Bitcoin - It's more than a thing, it's an idea.

Yes, the slow and steady undercurrents are what will propel Bitcoin in relative obscurity, not the dazzling spike highs and emotionally-engaging news stories. Pandora's box has been opened - Bitcoin is an idea more than a thing, and now that the a good portion of the world knows about it, it cannot be stopped.

Seems so simple, but I hadn't thought of looking at things from the perspective of market cap; and you're right, it is pretty remarkable.

I really want Bitcoin to succeed, but I'd say even 1% of the world is very optimistic.

What % of the world's transactions are Paypal or Western Union?  We need to get to those lower numbers first.

The recent stable price was actually a period of quite substantial growth.
Bitcoin is currently in a super inflation phase and the price kept up with this inflation. It's very clear to see this growth on a market capitalization chart.

http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

The value overall of bitcoin increased substantially in the last 4 months - a $5 bitcoin 1 week ago is a healthier sign than a $5 bitcoin 3 months ago.
Bitcoin (the network) is worth more now than at the $7+ January high.

OP, if this post is good for nothing else, it did make me smile a smile of genuine happiness

My lessons from year 2011:

1. Bitcoin will not lose all of its value unless the underlying network somehow fails.
2. Those who bought in / started mining during the single digits won't be filthy rich any soon.

I think, if the infrastructure doesn't fail, BTC is going to top $100 no matter what, but this may take several years. It just might top $10 000 but this won't happen until the infrastructure has really matured, and will definitely take more than ten years. The network is kinda struggling already.

This. Good points.

I've had numerous opportunities to discuss Bitcoin with high net worth individuals, and the overwhelming majority are not even aware of its existence, let alone participating. Though they have universally seen the potential and hope the best for Bitcoin after it being explained, the main view is indeed that the system is too young and unstable to be upset with large capital flows.

A primary use for Bitcoin among the wealthy is not as a standalone form of currency, but as a means to safely transfer wealth without having to incur the risk of physically moving it. For instance: sell physical gold to buy bitcoins; relocate; sell bitcoins to re-buy physical gold. In most situations, this is far less expensive than physically transporting it, and it can be done in stages with a few million of EUR or USD at a time.

The one factor that will change this is awareness - spread the knowledge of Bitcoin.

My personal opinion is the destruction of other currencies (including the US Dollar) by short-sighted monetary policy will hasten the adoption of bitcoin, if only to move massive amounts in short periods of time. The later stages of using bitcoin will cause the true renaissance of this currency.

And like any other endeavor involving predicting the future, I can be utterly wrong - or more right than I know.

As a corollary, rising valuation by pricing bitcoins in dollars may only be evidence of the dollar's continued debasement via issuance of debt. However, I believe the 'intrinsic value' of bitcoin to be much higher than being priced with fiat.

If you look at the Bitcoin charts from an Elliott Wave point of view for clues then we could see a fair bit of upside relatively soon.

If the initial spike up to the low $30 region was a Wave 1 impulse wave (which the pattern fits), with the classic 90%+ crash back down from a parabolic rise in a corrective form being Wave 2 then Wave 3 up should be next. Third waves are usually the strongest in the Wave 1 advance, Wave 2 correction, Wave 3 advance, Wave 4 correction, Wave 5 advance pattern.

IF this were to pan out, then you'd expect Wave 3 to be much larger than the $30 ground covered by Wave 1 so I'd be expecting Wave 3 to push up towards the $100 mark.

The next indication that this may be happening would be for a break above the previous all time high. Some way off, I know but if things start snowballing, who knows.

From what I've noticed so far, Bitcoin seems to map Elliott Wave patterns pretty well, as one would expect, as it's pretty clean in terms of being driven by human emotion as opposed to the very manipulated old world capital markets.

Roger: Right now any significant amount of money invested would overwhelm the market and cause a boom-bust cycle. I think there are at least several wealthy individuals on the sidelines of the BTC market, buying a little bit now and then. Remember that when Buffett invested in IBM he did it without telling anyone and over the course of 6+ months. Because the real value of BTC is measured by the number of people willing to accept it, if you invest a lot too early you actually hamper your rate of return, because the higher you push the value the less likely you are to find buyers for that value. I'm guessing those adding money into the system are keenly aware of all of these factors and are trying to match their investment to the growth of the BTC market. Right now it's not even interesting to people with > $1 billion net worth, but I'd imagine several multi millionaires are watching, and that once it crosses something like 500 mil market cap and > 2 mil free float there will start to be some real money flowing in.

-bgc

One of the things keeping the smart money away is that most of the smart money isn't so much smart as cautious. And the smart money is owned by people, who do not at this point understand all the implications of Bitcoin. Give them time.

I like your 13,000/BTC calculation, though. Always said I would start spending bitcoin (as in spending them and not replacing them) when they reached around 8,000/BTC. But I think 13,000/BTC is more reasonable.

Another "Super Bull" checking in... I believe those radical numbers. It's just a matter of time for information to propagate and infrastructure to develop.

Someone at HSBC says 2-3 years for virtual currency to be "mainstream". I'm betting on more like 5.

Like somebody already said:

"Bitcoin is now like the Internet before the web browser."

Roger: +1 ... I posted your comment to a few social networks.

Piper67: yeah, you're echoing a lot of the thoughts I've had. I'm a pretty educated guy (or so I thought), but I didn't REALLY understand money, or banking, or the Federal Reserve until Bitcoin piqued my interest enough to do some reading (not that I'm an expert now or anything).  But while I understand that I'm in a tiny minority of people who "get it," I'm not sure that fully explains the market's (in my view) extremely depressed valuation of bitcoin.  Because part of getting economics is getting market efficiency. It's like the old joke about the economist who won't pick a twenty-dollar bill off the sidewalk. ("If it were a real bill, someone else would have already picked it up.") Well, I feel like I'm staring at what could be a million-dollar bill. And it seems hard to believe that it hasn't already been picked up. Not EVERYONE needs to understand Bitcoin for its value to shoot up. It seems like even a handful of serious financial players could drive the price way up very quickly given how tiny the current market cap is. Take the $13,600 / BTC estimate that was previously offered. In some ways, it really was a conservative estimate of bitcoin's potential. Assume that it only had a 1 percent chance of happening in the near future (and a 99% chance of failing completely). That alone would get us a market price closer to $100.  So where are the big (or even medium) players? Is there some other factor that I'm missing that's keeping the "smart money" away? What is perceived as the biggest obstacle to radical success on the kind of scale I'm envisioning? That the technology won't scale? That a crippling security vulnerability will be discovered in the basic protocol that can't be fixed? A successful government crackdown? The emergence of a hugely- superior cryptocurrency alternative? Some other threat?

If you know what a bitcoin is, can generate one, and know what to do with it, you're by definition richer than 80, probably 90% of all humanity.

Ask the average person on the street if they think gold is valuable (could be almost any country).  I bet you get a pretty much 100% strike rate.  Now ask them if bitcoins are also valuable?  If you get more than 1 in 100 people actually knowing what a bitcoin is and why someone should want one, I'll give you a cookie.

Just because something is rare and/or of limited quantity doesn't mean it should skyrocket in value.  But you already know that.

and after all the debate... we are still poor 

Well, me and a lot of people are betting some serious money that you are correct.

It takes a certain understanding of cryptography, computer science & economics to realize the full potential of Bitcoin ... most people are not there yet. In fact, most people will never be there, but enough "Powers That Be" and decision makers will be converted sooner or later. Give it some time.

I've been with Bitcoin for about 15 months now, and I haven't seen anything to change that initial "Wow, it's awesome" sensation I got when I first learned about it. It's just getting better and better.

Profound.  Seriously.

The problem is that Bitcoin, as a concept, requires a greater than average understanding of:

- Economics
- Networks
- Coding
- Cryptography
- Social science
- Market forces
- ... and I'm probably missing a few.

That is the reason most people don't get it. Most people have a somewhat basic understanding of one, two or maybe three of these, but not all.

Think about what needed to be understood for the concept of email to take hold. Not now, with the ability to open a gmail account and send an email within seconds, but back when NO ONE had a computer sitting on their desk. There was computing (how to get a computer to work, how to give it DOS commands, how to set up a modem through the phone line, how to get an email across those lines, etc)... people used to prefer to pick up the phone, or send a letter through the mail. And now they don't. It isn't that their understanding of these items has magically grown, it's just that those who did understand them well made them user friendly to the point that the average Joe doesn't need to figure it out, much like he doesn't need to understand electrons in order to throw a light switch.

That's happening with Bitcoin too. Take a look at Bitinstant, Bit-Pay and a host of others... it's coming, my friend. "Real's gonna change" :-)

Ha, yeah I was serious (mostly). The problem is I go back and forth. Bitcoin really DOES seem like it has the potential to be revolutionary and MASSIVELY successful. And I sometimes think I'm a genius for understanding its implications earlier than most.  But then I remember that I'm not that smart. And I haven't exactly won over the friends and family I've tried to convert. ("Dude, you've got to drop the bitcoin sh*t. Seriously, I don't care.") And then I wonder if I'm not just a moron who spent several grand on "Mario money" (my wife's preferred term) that will soon be worthless.   I guess we'll find out. 

I'm a super bull, but give it a few months/years. Information takes time to spread.
I don't recommend investing money that you need for the next 2 years. Ideally 5 years.

I do think we'll see a huge rise soon, but I'm not betting anything on it ... just buy and hold, don't fudge.

Ok, so we've heard from a bear. Are there any bulls who want to share their predictions?

Heh, reading just the title, I was sure this was a humorous posting making fun of the speculation forum.

It seems op was serious

I agree with you here. A lot of the gold bugs see conspiracies of manipulation and price suppression on the paper gold market. So they advocate taking possession of the physical gold to put pressure on the paper market. But with bitcoin its simple and cheap to take possession of the actual coins - just withdraw the bitcoins.

Also, the global economy is in a deflationary contraction phase of the cycle. Real estate falling, commodities, gold and silver prices dropping, stocks probably topped and trending down, etc. But bitcoin still holding up. If/when the shit hits the fan, or global credit starts expanding again, and inflation returns to global paper fiat, I could see bitcoin rising much faster (faster than gold even) in such an environment.

Of course, that depends on there being a strong bitcoin economy, a reliable network of trustworthy exchanges and financial services. Some thriving commercial services could only help (silk road is rumoured to have a revenue of some 400k+ btc stored at an address suspected to be for their coin-tumbler).

As long as we have such an ecology, the price/value will continue to flourish. Its been two months for you, but only six months since the price reversal from $2 after the bubble. You don't see the full consequences of a disruptive revolution overnight (Falkvinge predicts 10 years or 2019 for bitcoin, based on other disruptive technologies in his interview in the magazine). Give it two years, or more..

i could see this happening

Just make a site called Bitconica, and go from there...

Oh, dont forget to leave doors open so you can be "hacked"


After, denounce bitcoin, and move on to greener pastures..

If its good enough for Bruce Wagner...   

i left it on the coffee table for you, under your ellet.

The core group of bitcoin has decided to go for the long con. That's why.
Bitcoin will survive it though.
It's the birth, death and rebirth of an online community, happens every time.

I haven't received my bitcoin magazine yet.
Nuff Said.

A lot of people do. It is the kernel in their Android devices and therefore the dominant smart-phone operating system in sales. If you mean GNU/Linux as a desktop operating system then the figure is 1%. Now Bitcoin has a very long way to go in order to match GNU/Linux as a desktop operating system in market share.

1% of all gold 85 Billion USD
1% of world M1 money supply (cash / chequing accounts) 200 Billion USD http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1231778551.php

The combined valuation speculation / protection of value (gold) and medium of exchange (M1) for a 1% market share is 285 Billion USD or based on 21 million Bitcoin maximum 13,600 USD per BTC. So my insane pie in the sky valuation for Bitcoin is based on a market share equivalent to that of GNU/Linux on the desktop.

Yeah, that's kinda what I figured, but like I said, I wanted to be conservative.  I'm not one for making outlandish claims.  And if I'd suggested that each bitcoin should be worth $3.5 million instead of $950,000, some people might have dismissed my post as crazy.

what % of trade is done using gold anyway?

I'd say that, at actual price of US$ 1600, 95% of the price is monetary usefulness. Remembering that copper has a better conductivity than gold.

Yeah, what the hell is going on? I bought some coins 2 years ago and those ones are only up 10000%. I was fully expecting 100000% by now.

neah... people are lazy

Sadly, because the money lies in continually attempting to overestimate the stupidity of the general public, whereas Bitcoin underestimates it.

Why is Linux not used by everyone?

after all it is the superior product, and its FREE!

because my friend... because people are stupid. 

you must be good at math.
you lost me after trillions 

hear this theory of mine

rich people get richer. and you will find out why we aren't "filthy rich yet" 

fucking priceless

According to wikipedia, roughly 5.3 billion troy ounces of gold have been mined in all of human history.  Gold is currently trading at around $1600 a troy ounce which means that the total market value of all of the world's mined gold is approximately $8.5 trillion.  The demand for gold (and hence its price) is not driven entirely by its monetary usefulness because it has other uses such as jewelry and electronics.  But a non-trivial fraction of its price comes from its usefulness as money.  How big is that fraction? Let's be conservative and say it's only 25%.  That means that gold's total "money value" is around $2 trillion. Let's pretend as a simplifying assumption that all 21 million bitcoins have been mined.  The total value of those coins based on a current price of $6.40 is $134 million.  134 million is smaller than 2 trillion.  Bitcoin is supposedly a "better" money than gold when you evaluate it according to all the characteristics that make for good money, e.g., it's divisible, fungible, durable, portable, identifiable, and scarce.  And yet, (using all of the previous assumptions) if bitcoins were valued ONLY 1/1000th as much as "monetary" gold, they'd be worth a total of $2 billion, i.e. roughly $95 / BTC. If they were valued AS MUCH as monetary gold, they'd be worth $95,000 a piece. Of course, since bitcoins are at least 10 times BETTER than gold, they should really be worth no less than $950,000 each. And yet, I can't help but notice that I still live with my parents and drive an '89 Geo Metro. That raises a few questions:

1) Why aren't I filthy rich yet?
2) Any other dreamers willing to post their pie-in-the-sky, insanely bullish predictions for what a bitcoin could be worth in terms of purchasing power if it proves to be as revolutionary as we hope it will be?

AND

3) It seems like a lot of people are very focused on bitcoin's adoption by merchants, i.e. the "medium of exchange" aspect of currency, as the key to its success. But couldn't bitcoin still be insanely successful (in terms of its value) if it took off ONLY as a store of value? (And isn't that mostly how gold is used?)