Topic: Why bitcoin has value in the market? Some food for thought! (Read 219 times)

generally right now those shouting "its worth $100k" are the ones that bought at $50k and they want 2x in the future. so speculate it as valued at that $100k now, because they are in a rush to get their profit.

however the actual value window right now is between $30k-$70k
everyone on the planet even home hobby miners could mine for less than $70k/coin right now so there is not much need/pressure to buy for more then this.

as things progress in mining costs and such, this window will rise, eventually $100k will fit inside the value window. but not right now.

so those speculating that bitcoin IS worth $100k are just speaking too soon, too greedily and too eagerly

Think about it hard for 5 minutes. If you really think it's real value is 100k, then why don't you buy it right now at 100k ? Why people are not selling at 100k since the beginning ? Because you think you are an early adopter forseeing a future value increase ? And then if it's the only reason to buy it, then what when it reach 100k, which should be the real value according to those expert ? Other people who bought it to you at 100K will be saying expert say it can reach 200k to make the same profits ? When does this end ?

Well, bitcoin has value simply because people (community, whale, retail, etc) value so.
And I believe the price is mostly driven by the whale, so the story behind it (the scarcity, use case, decentralization, technial chart, etc) is mostly only for the cosmetics

If Bitcoin's value was mainly based on its use as a medium of exchange, it would still cost $100, because Bitcoin is extremely unpopular payment method. Even if you take all the daily transactions and imagine that they are all payments and not transfers to/from exchanges, that would still be a tiny drop compared to centralized services.

Bitcoin's value is growing because it's an asset that shown tremendous growth in the past, and it keeps growing because new buyers keep coming. The fundamentals are ensuring that Bitcoin is worth something, but they don't really tell you even any good approximation of how much Bitcoin should cost. Bitcoin's value is a result of people believing that it has high value - hodlers not selling, and buyers buying even if the price is ten times higher than it was a few years ago.

Why do we have to start the same old discussion about how awesome and unique Bitcoin actually is?
All the things mentioned in OP's post are mentioned before.Repeating them again doesn't make sense.
I'm pretty sure that 90% of all Bitcoin buyers and investors don't really care about mining,blocks,hashrates,blockchain technology,utility,etc.They are buying BTC because they are expecting to sell it at a higher price in the future and make some profits.This is the main motivation behind buying and HODLing BTC.The scarcity of BTC has a really important role for the Bitcoin price.Without scarcity,the Bitcoin price would be close to the Ethereum price(around 3-4K USD).

Bitcoin is not defined by only one characteristic and I'd say there is no ranking of which is more important than other. There are a bunch of characteristics that define bitcoin and the combination of all of them is creating the value.

These characteristics include (but not limited to): decentralization, censorship resistance, capped supply, security, borderlessness, open source, fast and cheap transactions.

If we only take one characteristic, we end up with shitcoins that existed in the past and died. For example a shitcoin that though capped supply is the reason for bitcoin's success and ignored everything else.

Well, other fiat currencies are also digital and it can also be send internationally via remittance companies like MoneyGram and Western Union, but the difference is this. Bitcoin is decentralized ...so no central authority can stop your payments or money transfers from one address to another.....and it is much faster and cheaper. 

Yes, scarcity has an influence on it's value, but it is not the main reason why people are buying it. We say, "Be your own Bank with Bitcoin" ...and that gets value, when Banks and other centralized financial entities start misusing their power. (Example : Credit card companies stop payments to PornHub / Backpage / Wikileaks etc..)

If you never sell at a loss, then you might never sell. If you never sell, then that implies that its value is 0, because you will never get any benefit from it.

and thats the beauty of markets
i didnt say the buyer had to buy 0.000001 . if he didnt like that idea. we then enter barter. of 0.00001 or 0.0001 where i stop at 0.001

obviously the buy wants to buy because he deposited $40 because he wants to buy. so in barter if one shows compromise. the other eventually has to agree or he loses out. which if he really wanted some coin. usually he doesnt walk away without agreeing, especially at the 3rd/4th offer that is now 100x-1000x discounted from first offer.

imagine your selling a car. the book price is (as new) $60k, but your wiling to let it go at a break even of your cost at $40k
you never enter a barter at $40k. always start at something like $58k and say you are making an offer $2K discount. then you incrementally come down in $2k lumps. but never ever go below your break even of $40k.

the buyer thinking he can get a deal by his first ask of $30k(half price) but obviously that doesnt go well. so he goes up by $2k

$58k v $30k - no deal
$56k v $32k - no deal
$54k v $34k - no deal
$52k v $36k - no deal
$50k v $38k - no deal
$48k v $40k - no deal(secretly your temped)
$46k v $42k - no deal(secretly your temped)
$44k v $44k - deal

in this example you gained $4k as you were willing to sell at $40k as a bottom last resort
heck if the buyer 'tapped out' 2 barters ago where $40k was his final offer. you still win

..
in short if your acquiring bitcoin at $40k. and your first offer is to sell at $40k.. i have a few things to say
what was even the point in investing
why are you silly enough to have your first offer at break even
why are you putting your self into a losing hand position.

never sell at a loss
or more precisely. never invest in amounts you cannot live without medium-longterm. never sell at a loss

You might not, but you can't make that assumption for all sellers.

And you can't assume that the buyers will pay whatever you ask. If nobody is willing to pay $40 for 0.000001 then you won't make your 1000x profit.

you think supply and demand is if someone had unlimited coins or another person had unlimited $.
you think supply and demand is if someone has 10coins he needs to sell all 10 coins. and a buyer has to buy all 10 coins
sorry but no

if i had 10 coin and say it was worth $40k(to me) each
and someone had only $40 and no one else was willing to give me $$ today

i do not have to sell my 10coin for $40 at a $399,960 combined loss.
i am not forced to sell my 10coin at just $40 combined, just because demand today is only $40

what i can do:
is only hand him 0.000001 of my coin(my value 4c) meaning if i sell my 0.000001 for $40, i am making 1000x profit.
or only hand him 0.00001 of my coin(my value 4c) meaning if i sell my 0.00001 for $40, i am making 100x profit.
or only hand him 0.0001 of my coin(my value 4c) meaning if i sell my 0.0001 for $40, i am making 10x profit.
or only hand him 0.001 of my coin(my value 4c) meaning if i sell my 0.001 for $40, i am breaking even.

what you will see is that by showing someone did have interest in buying small amount of coin for $40 i have now set the market price. and now others might come in to speculate too. meaning i can then sell more small allotments of satoshi and drive up demand by being unwilling to to sell whole stash.

thus. the market is not judged on the 'supply' of the 19mill circulation. not the 21mil scarcity rule. but purely on the market order whims of the 2 participants making and taking market orders, no matter what split of a coin or division of $ is used

heres a thing for you to look into.
do you know why MTGox prices went crazy in its last remaining weeks. because no one could deposit or withdraw coins. people stopped thinking the markets were linked to circulation and realised markets were only linked to the price the market orders were processing

That is the only way someone could continue to sell at a fixed price regardless of the demand. You wrote "sell at a 2x profit", but nothing would stop the miner from selling at 2000x profit except demand. So, the bitcoins could have a value of $2000 if there is enough demand.

Likewise, if there is no demand for the bitcoins at $1, but there is demand at a lower value, miners would have to sell them at a loss. People like to claim that "nobody would sell at a loss", but that is simply not true. Lots of people sell at a loss all the time.

I believe that you are saying that the price of a bitcoin is somehow determined by the cost of mining it, but I have shown that it is not.

In Bitcoin, we are assured of its scarcity as the possible number of coins is really fixed and though mining is ongoing there comes a time when it will stop - many, many years from now - and at the end the coin in circulation and being held by people and investors can be below 21 million as there are those that are already lost and beyond redemption. Aside from scarcity, it is secured and decentralized and that means there is no party that can control it in any manner and that is something the opposite with the fiat money we have right now. Despite being extremely volatile in price, many experts now believed that eventually Bitcoin can go high in value even going beyond $100K for that matter. Now, we also have a big share of pessimists who can be seeing nothing valuable with Bitcoin and so they got a big prediction of their own: the downfall of Bitcoin just like the collapse of the Tulip scam centuries ago.

when have i ever assumed bitcoin is unlimited number of coins.?? never.

a market price is set by the last order filled.(no matter how many coins are in that order)

that order does not need to be 19million coins and doesnt need a buyer with $798b to set the price.
the last market order setting the price of $42k a coin can do it with just $4.20 buying just 0.0001btc
previous market order before that price of $41.9k a coin could of been just $4.19 buying just 0.0001btc

the market price does not need to sell whole bitcoins or whole circulations for whole btc value in dolar

yes a coin with all the features, uses and utility and security. aswell as a high security cost... AND then being scarce adds more weight to the desire.
but that desire does not come from just being scarce alone.



lets use this example
imagine buyers on 2 separate days just handed their value over. no matter how much coin was available
day 1 $840              1btc- $42k ($42k/btc)
the buyer can only buy 0.02btc and it doesnt fill the order to move the price
day 2 $84              0.001btc- $42.00 ($42k/btc)
                            0.001btc- $42.10 ($42.1k/btc)
the buyer can only buy 0.00199btc but it does move the price to $42.1k/btc

the demand($) has not increased. infact it has gone down, yet the price has moved up

as you can see its never a supply demand of how many allotments of $42k are fighting against how many allotments of whole btc
a price can move up even if a buyer only has $84 instead of $840 or $42k

..
what you find is that although there are 19m coins in circulation. people with btc are not dumb enough to flood the market. if the amount of $ is low, they make low orders offering lower amounts of sats to keep equilibrium to the market level to avoid mega crashes.

this is why we dont see the 'megawalls' of 1000btc as we did in 2013. because although in 2013 there were only 12mil coins in circulation and now there are 19mill which normally means more coins to sell/offer.. those in the selling position meet the $ amount with fair sat amount to prevent crashes. even when there are more coins in circulation than the previous years.

..
there are more coins in 2021 then there were in 2013.. so scarcity has not yet played a large weight into price discovery. much like a painters paintings are not worth a scarce value while he is alive because he can paint more..
but once a painter dies.. and once bitcoin reaches nearer the 21mill cap.. then scarcity plays a bigger role.

but right now bitcoins value is based on its utility,features, uses and cost of security its utility/features/uses.. with a small % sway in regards to scarity

Your reasoning assumes that there is an unlimited number of bitcoins that can be mined, but that is not true.

If the demand for bitcoins is greater than the supply, then the price will rise until the demand equals the supply. If the supply is greater than the demand, then the price will drop until the demand equals the supply. It is independent of the cost of mining.

Furthermore, if the price is lower than the cost of mining, then miners that are not making a profit will stop mining. The falling difficulty will cause the cost of mining to drop until it is less than the price. So, the cost of mining is always less than the price in the long run.

Finally, the number of newly mined bitcoins are such as small fraction of the market, it is ridiculous to assert that miners could have any kind of control over the price, even assuming they were joined together in a cartel.

market price has nothing to do with the 19million coins in circulation
market price is based on the last price of a market order. even if that order is for 0.001 coin

the reason people are willing to pay $42 for 0.001 or $42k for 1btc(same value)
is because they cannot get it cheaper anywhere else, and with all costs, effort, time, they think its better value to buy rather then mine in their circumstance.

if the mining cost was $1 they would most certainly mine it instead, and then try to sell at a 2x profit. which would end up having bitcoin value of $1-$2 if everyone done the same

but because mining the cheapest region on the planet is $31k a coin right now and $66k a coin in most expensive region, the value window is within that range.

..
the reason people desire bitcoin vs say a rare breed of dogs poop, that they can estimate only about 7200 piles of poop to exist with particular dog. is because bitcoin has:
a use (medium of exchange for goods and services)
features (transact immutably without a bank/partner co-signed permission)
utility(no borders)
security(block hash binding to prevent edits, decentralised ledger to prevent central points)
high security(more hashrate and associated cost, compared to other networks)
and much more, which give reason to the desire to invest in mining it and buying it, to then use or profit from it. as no one wants to sell at a loss (another element that strengthens value)

scarcity is not the only factor, as a rare dog which can only physically poop 7200 times in its life is not reason enough to value it highly

same with art. people can paint. but only a limited amount of paintings.. that alone does not give art value, people need to have other reasons why one piece of art is special, desirable, needed in their life

The scarcity and bitcoins that enter circulation are scheduled and hard-coded. That does not depend on the difficulty of mining.

The difficulty of mining and processing power of the whole network will only affect the security and reliability of the network, not really affecting the number of coins existing at a given time. The amount of mining devoted is regulated by the market price of bitcoin, energy and processing units hardware. But that will never affect the number of coins at a given time because those are scheduled and known in advance with a great degree of certainty (though the exact moment blocks enter the blockchain is unknown, but cannot oscillate too much from an average estimative).

Also, one shall not relate the price of bitcoin in dollars to the whole wealth of the world. Instead, one shall use as a reference the sum of the market value of all currencies in circulation. Unless, of course, you think people will be selling their real estate, businesses, gold, silver, etc., to buy bitcoin. It is more reasonable to assume that people will be selling their savings in money, converting it to bitcoin, not really their whole wealth. But a fraction of it, yes, it is quite reasonable to think.

The reason bitcoin has a market value is because it has many of the qualities of sound money, namely and very importantly "scarcity" and usefulness as a medium of exchange online. But also, divisibility, durability, non-fungibility, etc.
Think of it as digital gold that can be sent over the internet all over the world in a matter of minutes.

- remotemass