Topic: Why Bitcoin is NOT a bubble. (actual thoughts) (Read 670 times)
Doesn't matter if you call it a bubble or not. Changing the word won't change what will happen. Price goes up fast, gonna come crashing down. So ok, its not a bubble, still value crashed. GG
What a pity my stock is full of BTC, so that I don't have cash to buy those cheaply sold ones...
bitcoin is unregulated market. Highly volatile. Lots of things can go wrong. You can call it bubble or correction or anything you like. But it always be crashing because thats how people make money
Friends,
Even after the events of today, I'm hear to say that Bitcoin is fundamentally different from most speculative bubbles - and I do not believe we are in a bubble. Here's why:
1) I'm going to start by defining a new variable "Expanded Market Value" or EMV (open to better names), which is the total value of all BTC + fiat currency that is sitting on the exchanges.
2) There is significant fees/time/technical aspect moving money into and out of the EMV - as seen by the line of gox accounts trying to be verified.
3) Very few people/companies are moving out of EMV. Who is moving out of the EMV? I would say miners - to pay for electricity, new equipment. Companies - BFL probably, Avalon etc to pay for their raw materials. Pure speculators who are "fed" up with the system.
4) Bitcoin Price = (EMV * %invested) / Total Coins.
5) Why did we "crash" today? I argue %invested went way down - I bet EMV was about the same? How many of you took money OFF of the exchanges? The fees are high, unless one is "done" with BTC most who sold have bought back - or probably will buy back.
6) In "normal" bubbles, it's easy to sell a stock and invest i the next best thing. It's much harder here.
7) So what happened today? Simple, the hype of "we are in a bubble" got to everyone head. When 1 big seller sold - everyone panic sold. But, they saw the price an hour behind and were like it's only down ~20 pts I should just cash out. The big sellers, then saw cheap coins and bought back in. Why are we stuck at *only* 175 - we scared people. Bitcoin will take months to recover from this (I had thought it would be faster, but the magnitude in USD lost was too great).
I'm in it for the long haul.
TheJuice
Even after the events of today, I'm hear to say that Bitcoin is fundamentally different from most speculative bubbles - and I do not believe we are in a bubble. Here's why:
1) I'm going to start by defining a new variable "Expanded Market Value" or EMV (open to better names), which is the total value of all BTC + fiat currency that is sitting on the exchanges.
2) There is significant fees/time/technical aspect moving money into and out of the EMV - as seen by the line of gox accounts trying to be verified.
3) Very few people/companies are moving out of EMV. Who is moving out of the EMV? I would say miners - to pay for electricity, new equipment. Companies - BFL probably, Avalon etc to pay for their raw materials. Pure speculators who are "fed" up with the system.
4) Bitcoin Price = (EMV * %invested) / Total Coins.
5) Why did we "crash" today? I argue %invested went way down - I bet EMV was about the same? How many of you took money OFF of the exchanges? The fees are high, unless one is "done" with BTC most who sold have bought back - or probably will buy back.
6) In "normal" bubbles, it's easy to sell a stock and invest i the next best thing. It's much harder here.
7) So what happened today? Simple, the hype of "we are in a bubble" got to everyone head. When 1 big seller sold - everyone panic sold. But, they saw the price an hour behind and were like it's only down ~20 pts I should just cash out. The big sellers, then saw cheap coins and bought back in. Why are we stuck at *only* 175 - we scared people. Bitcoin will take months to recover from this (I had thought it would be faster, but the magnitude in USD lost was too great).
I'm in it for the long haul.
TheJuice
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