Topic: Why bitcoin will crash (Read 343 times)

They're speculators.  It's inevitable that they appear in such a free asset.
I agree with this point, so let's move on.
Why would you sell anything for fiat money knowing that it'll be worth half as much in twenty years?
This is a short term problem.  It may result in crashes, but decentralised exchanges are in the making and regulation for the centralised exchanges is getting tighter.  In fact, that's why Bitfinex no longer deals with US customers.

I think you're right that BTC's value will decrease, but your claims appear to suggest that it will be a permanent decrease, which is something that I disagree with.  They're primarily short-term problems (within the space of a year or two).

Bitcoin vs Fiat money

 It's compared to fiat because that's the only thing we can compare it to.  This will always be the case as long as there is fiat currency.  


Speculation

 No one buys Bitcoin hoping the price goes down.  This is actually a reason why Bitcoin goes up.  When more people buy it becomes more scarce, driving the price up.  People have been saying it's a bubble for years now and they have been wrong.  There have been dips. Some people will be scared, noobs as you say, but most of the money flowing into crypto currency isn't coming from noobs.  It's coming from Wall Street.  Some of this may be in the form of noobs cashing out their Wall  Street investments to get into crypto (this is what has Jamie Dimon pissing his pants).


Bitcoin is the most destructive force on the planet.

 This is an absurd statement.  Bitcoin hasn't wiped any countries off the map like hurricanes and earthquakes do.  The people of Puerto Rico, Haiti and others would disagree with you.  Does mining use electricity and produce heat?  Yes.  But ASICs are becoming more and more efficient and other altcoins are trying to solve this problem by eliminating mining altogether.  Where I live it gets extremely cold in the winter.  Guess what I will be using as a source of heat?  My mining rigs.  This means I will be using less heating oil.  No, not everyone can use waste heat.  As bitcoin mining progresses you will see more environmentally friendly solutions.  By it's very nature, older more inefficient hardware becomes useless.  You will also start to see more alt-energy solutions being deployed for bitcoin mining, like wind and solar.  Or maybe at some point in the future it will do what Ethereum is planning to do and get rid of mining altogether.

Unstable Value

 The value is unstable when compared to fiat.  When used to pay for things this creates a lack of confidence.  When used as an investment, the unstable value is generally forgiven because investments by nature go up and down.  The money people are throwing at Bitcoin today isn't for their day-to-day use.  It's so they can cash out in the future.  

Alt Coins

 Some altcoins are utter shit, some are just scam coins, others are actually trying to do something.  Ethereum is changing it's model so people won't be able to mine it any more.  This goes back to your destructive force comment.  Smart contracts are another incredibly useful innovation. RAIN/Condensate is another great project with real-world impact, measuring rainfall via IoT and actual hardware (small first step!).  There are some very smart people out there trying out new ideas.  Some will fail, some won't. The list of altcoins over $100,000,000 is at 60 right now.  That's a lot of money for just crap. Alt coins aren't going anywhere.  

The scam of trading platforms

 What?  How else are people going to trade their coins or buy new ones?  Do whales have influence?  Yes.  So what?  If you learn how to trade you can insulate yourself against whale influence.  If you get your investment advice from Twitter and Facebook then you're going to have a bad day.  This applies to more than just cryptocurrency.  

Bad Money

 Again, what?  What does this even mean?  Are you talking about drugs or illegal activity?  Money laundering?  Stupid people investing?  Banks have been waist deep in this shit since there have been banks.  It doesn't matter if you buy your drugs with green paper rectangles or bitcoins.

The actual value

 I would say that here is where your argument falls apart, but you really haven't made one.  You've just made a few observations that have been made before by other people.  You also did not check your math.  There are over 1000 Bitcoin ATM locations in the US alone.  There are thousands of businesses worldwide and online that accept bitcoin.  By your math, only 0.000007 people use bitcoin.  Even if we round up to one, that's a lot of infrastructure and investment to support a single humans bitcoin transactions.  Bitcoin has value and its use is increasing.  





 

People are in it to increase their purchasing power. The main reason why the BTC price is most commonly referred to in fiat value, is because it's the only meaningful frame of reference we have right now. What other frames of reference are there? Gold? Lamborghinis? Pizzas? One of the main purposes of fiat is to compare the value of assets of different classifications to one another. BTC is no different in this regard. It's about the purchasing power of BTC, not its fiat value. And as of now, its purchasing power can only be meaningfully expressed in fiat.



I'm not 100% sure we're in a classic bubble yet. Noobs will panic the most, for sure, but I think most bitcoins are still in the hands of the old guard, which should bolster the next correction a bit.



Banking is the most destructive force on the planet. Never in history there has been anything that just wasted such an amount of human resources. Just think of the millions of bankers that were not educated to become doctors or engineers, no, just wasted on finance.

In my opinion replacing the human resources that are currently stuck in banking with electricity would be a positive tradeoff.



Arguably Bitcoin will become more stable once it reaches a sufficient market cap. Retail prices also fluctuate to some extend, yet there's only few cases where people try to time the market, especially with products that satisfy immediate needs.



Agreed. Well, some alts arguably offer innovation, but in general I agree with you.



Agreed. Same goes for the rest of finance though, regardless of regulation. Bitcoin itself, however, is incredibly transparent.



Define bad money? Noobs or bankers?



0.0000000000001% of the people would be less than 1/10,000th of a person. I'm fairly confident to say that there are more people using BTC than 1/10,000th of a person. The question of a fair valuation is a tough one though, that's true. Which is why we are seeing the price fluctuations we see right now. It's all part of the price finding process.



Crypto-currencies can be used freely regardless of their valuation. Without tokens, a blockchain is just a decentralized database. There's better solutions for that.

1 - Bitcoin in the short-term will not be an alternative to fiat but an alternative to gold. But there will come a day in the future when price of commodities will be quantified in satoshis rather than dollars

2 - You answered yourself. There is only a finite volume and as Bitcoin is gradually adopted into the mainstream, the value can only go in one direction. The reason it's not just a bubble is due to the fact that blockchain is the future of which there can be no question.

3 - This is something I do agree with. Mining is energy inefficient.

4 - You think it's unstable only because you have contradicted yourself and measured its value in fiat

5 - There are a few Altcoins with a dedicated, solid team behind it. When blockchain goes fully mainstream, those who believed in these Altcoins will reap rich rewards.

6 - Smart people know a pump and dump when they see one. All trading entails a risk of being burned, not only in Crypto.

7 - Bad money is already in Bitcoin but Bitcoin did not CREATE bad money. Bad money exists in fiat too.

8 - Bitcoin is used by roughly 0.2-0.3 % of the world

BTC won't succeed as the regular cryptocurrency but rather as the digital gold.
There is a lot of improvements to come and forks - how it will play out for the future of BTC we will see.

Regarding BTC mining and a lot of energy that it takes - yea, I must admit that's not the way we all wanna see it + it's all centralized in the long run, that's why I think ASIC-resistant mining is better.
Have you heard of hydro-mining? It may change the game a bit as it is the new energy-efficient way and of course more ecological.

BTC price will cool down at some point I believe, there certainly is some kind of bubble and we may fall to sub $3-4k per BTC and stabilize there. And as the market cap grows it will be less and less volatile. What we see right now is heaven for traders (damn, wish I had a motivation to learn how to trade ).

Altcoins aren't crap but most of them certainly are in the long-run. Just look, there is over 1200 cryptocurrencies.

In the next year or two, we should see the rise of decentralized exchanges based on blockchain technology.

You say no one's using BTC? Cryptocurrency market has really boomed this year and there is a lot of newcomers. In the next 50+ years, we will only use technology like that and paper money will be obsolete I think, although I have no idea what kind of currency we will be using - will there be lots of currencies to use worldwide or only one (NWO n' shiet?) - I can't really tell you.

i think i have to agree with that, when bitcoin reach to more than 20k then i don't think that investor gonna invest in bitcoin and they will be afraid of loosing money because of bitcoin unstability.

In an other topic I ask what would be the best strategy to profit from the bitcoin crash. A bitcoin crash, but it's at a all time high stupid?! So let me explain why I believe there is a number of reasons what will cause this crash. Also feel free to counter.

Bitcoin vs Fiat money
One of the things people keep telling each other is that bitcoin is so much better than Fiat money. Yet a huge amount of people base the value of bitcoin only of the value compared to Fiat money. This forum is full of messages of people cheering when bitcoin has reached a new all time high, in Fiat money numbers. Also people dream of getting rich and millionaire, again in Fiat money. This brings me to the next point, speculation.

Speculation
I believe that 99% of people that are joining the bitcoin train now, hope that the Fiat money they invest now will be more worth more in the future. The look at the chart and see it go's up and up. There are just a fixed number of bitcoin, so they will be increase in worth right? No, the current value expressed in Fiat money is because it's a classic bubble. While people keep buying the price will rise, until they start to panic. Lot's of noobs are buying bitcoin right now and guess who are driven by emotion when it go's down? The noobs again, they will panic first.

Bitcoin is the most destructive force on the planet
Wait whut? Yes I am very sure about this one. Never in history there has be anything that just wasted such an amount of energy and hardware. Just think of the millions of graphic cards that were not used to play a video game or design a 3d building for an architect, no just burned for bitcoin. So much electric energy that is just vaporized in heat that was just waste. And the current network use a ton of energy for just one transaction. We are all about environment and climate, but yet we don't seem to realize this enormous waste.

Unstable value
As long as the value is not even near stable it's not a alternative to Fiat money. Why would you buy anything with it as you believe it could be worth double the money next month? Same for the opposite.

Alt coins
Are just crap and we know it. While we 'use' bitcoin at least for some stuff, the altcoins are just a way to make money in the shade of bitcoin. There is no value at all in altcoins, but since the noobs want something and can't affort bitcoin (because they can only think in whole bitcoins) the start buying altcoins. And more noobs does, so the price is going up, hooray!

The scam of Trading platforms
I've been following trades on for example Bitfinex, there are people who know how to influence the price for sure. Some big players (you call them whales) who laught at all the noobs while they are just pumping the price to a new high. It's far from transparent.

Bad money
They have discovered bitcoin. When bad money comes in, good money runs away. It's an old fact that will apply to bitcoin.

The actual value
Think about this. Does a single bitcoin is really worth a car? Who is really using it? But so is paper money right? No it's not, we are all using Fiat money. Bitcoin is used by 0.0000000000001% of the people. It's current worth in Fiat money numbers is only a reflection of the greed of humans.

But it's kinda sad because the blockchain is an amazing technology. So is the IP protocol btw, but no one has come up to put a price tag an that technology. Thank God, there would be no internet today.