Topic: Why bitcoin will go down below 6000 (explanation) (Read 719 times)

Nice bottom thread by @Smartcontracter



https://twitter.com/smartcontracter/status/1007532346201870337?s=21

You know that theories like that don't work, right? The proper way to act and benefit from a market that could go down further, is to dollar cost average as long as you need to buy the final bottom.

You can't possibly know where that bottom is. It could be anywhere between $2000-$5000 or we might have seen the final bottom already. If you sell now you'll lose out by having to buy back your coins at much higher levels.

I say much higher levels because you'll initially wait for the price to correct again, which it just as easily might not, and by the time you decide to buy back, you get less coins for the same amount of fiat back.

And 5 months after the OP has open this thread, it looks like we're getting closer to what he said earlier. There are a lot of predictions lately saying that we're closing to the bottom which is around $4k-$5k.

And if you're going to look at the current price, yes, it within that price range. Its a big scary though because we would have never thought of it plummeting to this price range, however, I'm thinking that it we bottom at this price, the only logical thing to happen next is to go up so I'm taking this opportunity to accumulate small portions of bitcoin and get to that 1 BTC we've all been looking for.

Actually the repetition of fluctuations of bitcoin price every year. But it's happening in alternative manner. Last year the price of bitcoin had increased the maximum price. Now the the price of bitcoin is moving in a negative fluctuations. Hope this is not a permanent one, if so many will lose their investment. The people who want to get the money out from cryptocurrency will get some loss.

Well , first part of this prognosis became reality - bitcoin broke boundary 6000 $. Respect for accurate theories. As for other points i would suggest to change them in other direction. Let us see btc rise

We don't know why the Bitcoin will falling down like this but we had the ability to grow of the Bitcoin in short period of time so the only thing we can do just hold on for long time and make some investment in cryptocurrency this will be the lead to growth value of cryptocurrencies.

I quite agree with you. At present, financial markets like us have been weakened by the ongoing economic wars in major countries. I think we should not invest anymore, sell them as soon as possible and wait for the bitcoin to return to $ 4000. That would be the best price to buy.

I think there are many reasons for the decline in Bitcoin prices. One of the things that I think is happening is that there is a community that manipulates prices, they simultaneously disrupt the market situation and when this happens they have made many investors panic to sell the Bitcoin they have. This is what will worsen the situation and of course, as we see now, which has a very significant price reduction !!! Bitcoin prices have dropped dramatically and we will never know how long this will happen.

And it really goes down to these levels which had a lot of panic to all the people inside of the crypto space. But I know that it will go back up again or maybe would start to make the next big rally.

still actual

The comparisons are good as a theory but it cannot determine the future trend as only demand creates the trend in crypto trading. Bitcoin has already went as low as $4800 this year and current holding at $6200. If the price goes below $6000 then it might go as low as $5200 in my opinion. Anyway, if it goes low the chances are that it will bounce back quickly and start for the bull run.

Exactly. The current price is more than $6000 and it is expected to rise again. There was a rise in the value of Bitcoin as July started and this rise was though to be the start of the recovery and the finally the boom but this did not happen.

Besides, the experts continue to speculate about the rise in the price in future as the expansion of the technology has paced up which in tern has boosted the inflow of funds to the crypto market and this is the reason why it will rise again.

Everything happen has a reason bitcoin is on the early progress and it have many roads to be taken just trust bitcoin and hodl it wait for the November and bitcoin will jump again to the moon.

The price of Bitcoin decreased because it was deliberately omitted by those who manage the market. And the market is managed by "whales", they buy at an affordable price, in order to raise the price and earn their billions in autumn or winter.

Thanks for sharing the useful explanation because I have never thoughts that there are so many reasons. I believe that the price will increase soon and it will become larger than it is now

We really can't predict exactly how things will happen the next day, we are talking about bull run and a week after this downfall occur again, but the best thing to do is keep on buying and holding though supply and demand really affects the value, there's still some great news to wait like the delayed of ETF the decision will happen this coming september so those who are selling at its cheap value will regret it after the price arise higher than the last pumped, chill down and keep holding.

You need to harm. I am hopeful that bitcoin price is not gong to break the 6000$ level . I hope that bitcoin price will recover its position very soon and  will hopeful recover our lost, for which we are holding our bitcoin for last one year.

I thought bitcoin will continue to increase but im wrong and here we are again now, bitcoin going back again on 6k $ and for sure many new investors got panic and maybe some of them sell their bitcoin .

For sure, this is just a theory, but this scenario still possible

I do as well because if we really want to look at the way things are presently, it is becoming glaring that history is actually somehow beginning to repeat itself. We still have a long way to go though, anything can change at any time, but for now, we sure are on the track of history.

Nevertheless, this does not change anything and we probably are going to be hitting it anyway based on lot of technicalities, so I guess we will have to wait and see how things would evolve.

I believe many investors didn't sell bitcoin around peak price because most of the investors were thinking that in 2018 they can see a new high and most of them are still holding. Currently, investors are worried that governments can put a restriction on crypto trading at any time so they are waiting for a regulation to this market. If that happens then again prices will start moving up. If not, we will see more lows than highs from the current level.

This is what I am waiting also too. I have same idea like in first message in here

At this point, I really would not be surprised and the only thing that may end up overriding this is for us to break out from the downtrend channel with a very huge volume from here which does not look like a possibility for now. With the way things are going, I feel we have a last leg to that spot which could possibly lead us to those levels anytime soon before any possible short term reversal which I am gladly looking forward to.

When last week of June was full of uncertainty, bitcoin showed its class. Yes, even prices dropped below $6000 levels. it did not hold up there. Immediate bounce back happened. Compared yesterday's prices, market is trading down today but I am not thinking it will move down further.

I think the reason behind why bitcoin will go down below six thousand it because of the sudden change of business environment and also
because of the changes of the law of the demand and by the way it is a normal.

Bitcoin drops below $ 6,000 because demand buys for Bitcoin by investors around the world drops. But I think the only reason Bitcoin prices are down is the market trend

There have been positive signals about the uptrend of the cryptocurrency market in the past few days but it is not clear yet so the next trend of the market has not been determined yet. Be prepared for any situation, divide your capital, and have a proper backup strategy is what you should do.

You can see that bitcoin prices have been falling continuously since the bitcoin hit $ 19800, so the bitcoin price is now at $ 6500 and is still falling. The market is in a downturn in the long term and we are preparing to face the global economic crisis, so the bitcoin price may continue to fall sharply and may fall to the $ 1000 mark. by the end of 2018.

You really think it's up to investors dude? I don't think so. That's why i don't think you can be sure of anything. We've already gone below 6k and it's likely it will happen again. I just prepare for whatever can happen, basically that's the best we all can do.

Exactly that is so informational new because some new buyers were losing Patience when the price was started to fall but finally they will get the news that price of bitcoin will not go lower hat 6000 dollar,. I think as more people has started to buy so that’s why price has stopped falling and now moving to rise, it is nature of bitcoin after touching bottom bitcoin bounce upward which is now going to happen till the end of 2018 so holds and wait I am sure soon price will be  high.

Or maybe this is due to the fact that now other crypto-currencies have also started to develop very actively?Why bitcoin is falling is falling all the others.Vicious circle...I also read that at the end of 2017, due to the growth of the exchange rate,many investors sold their bitcoins and these bitcoins got to the traders who are profitable to keep the rate falling.

Actually it is pumping up but cannot sustain eventually, because small player's  just playing the fluctuations, buy at low prices and dump in short period of time while the prices is little bit just earn little profits, when time comes that big whales will play that’s  the time that it will rocket.

Your words only make sense if you short the crap out of Bitcoin right now and provide screenshots or video content (better option) so we can see if you actually believe in your nonsense.

From $6000 to $1000 plus leverage will net you a massive profit. You are crazy if you don't do it if you are so confident of yourself. Also don't forget to short altcoins because they will go down way harder, which means that you will net even more profit.

People quite often hate future markets and all other platforms because you can short Bitcoin right now, but this is the best way to shut up naysayers; either short or gtfu.

This is really very useful information for acquaintance, but it seems to me that bitcoin will not drop below 6 500 dollars. Now buyers are very strongly uphold this price level.

Don't believe in $1000) It's about 95% down

Yes, I think bitcoin prices will probably fall to $ 6000 and they may fall further and may reach $ 1000 by the end of 2018. The market is in a downtrend stage and it is difficult to recover as the world is facing the global economic crisis. As a result, bitcoin prices will fall dramatically in the near future, so you should not invest in bitcoin.

Well I have been here for long time seeing the ups and downs of bitcoin and all other altcoins trying to compete with bitcoin, I haven’t seen anyone. This is really strange that you are claiming there is an altcoin that is comparable to bitcoin. Although every altcoin have its own nature and behavior, but performance is the actual measure. And in this race, bitcoin leads at the first for so long time.

Based on chart trend , yes it will go down but remember bitcoin still bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that still able to amaze us because the value can change without being expect.
For example : right now bitcoin is green and weekend always red but it still maintain on $ 6000 so I think it will stay $ 6000 on this second semester !

That MtGox ghost just still ended up haunting us to cause such a stir up in the market. It seems until we are completely done with this MtGox issue before we can actually start seeing things playing out differently in a way. However, the drop was imminent anyway and it was more like the MtGox dump actually made it a whole lot faster or more like aggravated it. It sure looks to me though that history is somehow finding a way to repeat itself this time around.

The downward trend of the entire cryptocurrency market has not stopped so anything can happen during this time, the worst scenario I think Bitcoin may drop below $ 4k. But I still have confidence in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin will bounce back in the end of this year.

Because the whale they sold the BTC out to withdraw money. Therefore, the sale of BTC is too high, causing the supply to increase so the BTC price is going down gradually. But in the future, perhaps by the end of the year the whales will continue to pump in the market again.

As I think there are so many pennies out there, they compete strongly with the BTC, so they have taken away a large number of investors from the BTC. The BTC trading volume should be reduced, which pushed the BTC price down.

probably because investors are starting to think again to invest in bitcoin and trades every day starting to fall so maybe that is a bitcoin factor going down considerably. hopefully big investors give energy back.

I really do not see any problem so far in using history to judge. The only difference I am seeing so far in the 2013 - 2015 chart and 2017 - current chart is just the speed of drop which the pace is faster this year but if we are really to look at the graphical representation of things and the way things are going, it sure looks a lot similar.

Yeah, we cannot be so quick to judge yet as the market may want to be so fast at responding to certain things, or sometimes, I may even want to consider the whales trying to deceive to dump and stir up some panic, but in that case, time will tell how things end up.

in addition, found such sheet:



So we have a lot of space to go deeper

Sure it's interesting to compare graphs of bitcoin to graphs of gold, or other commodities but I don't think these comparisons are any more useful than just to say "hey look, they're similar".

As another post mentioned, the price has been in a downtrend. The price of several commodities have been too, so it's no surprise the graphs will look similar.

It is definitely worrying, but in the long term as long as you believe in crypto, short term price doesn't matter much. Just don't be gambling your retirement fun on crypto and treat it as a side interest.

No one can know about the dept of bitcoin, but still i am sure that bitcoin price is not going to drop below 6000$ but will hopefully start increasing very soon. Because investors know about the potential of bitcoin and therefore they will never let it go below 6000$. I think that investment in bitcoin in current price is a good decision, and will surely give you a good profit.

But the fact that it went down below in the past like this doesn't exactly means that It will again go down like that.
The thing with a decentralized body is that it cannot be predicted that what's goonna Happen, therefore I don't think I would take the old graph as a means of getting to know what could happen.
I personally think that Bitcoins have seen a lot of downs this year and I think that quota is Preety full, we need to see all that good news coming in and the price rising like never before.
Well this is also *I hope so * no one's out there can predict it untill and unless they own more than half the Bitcoins in the market.

P.S. if the graph came out to be same there could be some regulations from someone I guess , maybe all the big whales are coming in and seeing what they can do , or it could even be Satoshi nakamato manipulating the market by himself ,"

I don't want to generate FUD but it's better to be prepared for this scenario and treat this as a market cycle.
If it won't happen, it will be great

The parabolic movement has started from level $1000

I can't tell what is the bottom for BTC price, all I know is that this huge downtrend from 20K down to 6K (and possibly lower) will not be followed by a spike in price like we see with some altcoins, BTC tends to go up in a parabolic movement, looking at the chart right now, a parabolic trend has not touched its bottom yet.

Sorry did you say will? How are you determined that it will go down than that. Well i too think so too but i will not share negativity along side this forum sharing information are preferable but not bad opinions that can affect bitcoins reputation. Tracing the facts about bitcoin isn't a crime but we must swallow our prides to create good ideas about bitcoin because we are the one who will benefit to such method.

You can see that bitcoin prices are dropping sharply in recent days, the market is in the long-term bear market, after the bitcoin price reached $ 20000 has been continuously dropped and there was a time decrease. 70% of its value to the $ 6000 mark and the current price of bitcoin is at $ 6500. Market capitalization does not increase this suggests that bitcoin prices will likely continue to fall sharply in the coming days.

I chose 13-15 chart because it was market dump time, the same as now.
Actually, we can find similar charts in gold for example. https://imgur.com/a/k6AzZPc — looks also familiar, right?
And thanks for merit!

Your effort to make up this theory is really appreciated. History repeats itself, right? You compare chart 2013-2015 with 2017-2018 but believe me its't 100% because the market are NOT controlled by one single institution that hold Bitcoin the most. Wyckoff theory is not valid here. Learning how to make money out of Bitcoin, it appears to me that Bitcoin is too sensitive to any kind of sentiment either good or bad. So, your theory can be half or totally wrong, however it should be proved with further evidence mathematically.

2014 and 2018 has also 1 connection. MTGox case. In 2014 MTGox was hacked and in 2018 he is selling found bitcoins. In september court will decide whats with rest  bitcoins which are waiting on decision on mtgox wallets (https://www.cryptoground.com/mtgox-cold-wallet-monitor/) 137k bitcoins worth close to 1 mld $ at current price.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-speculation-mt-gox-bitcoin-wont-be-sold-until-september-2018-3?IR=T

He chose 2013-2015 chart to compare with 2017-2018 chart because he probably thinks that "history will repeat itself" and IMO, 2013-2015 chart is the perfect one to use in order to say that since it is the time span where the biggest rise and dump of price happened(the biggest one before the 2017 bullish run started).
It is an interesting theory but IMO price will not go as far as 4800$ since bitcoin have more real volume and support now.

i gave you merit because of the effort although i disagree with what you said

why did you choose 2013-2015 chart to compare with 2017-2018 chart? bitcoin was not created in 2013. it started back in 2009 and there are charts for nearly as far back in time. additionally we have had the same "market cycle" multiple times before 2013.

i agree with Tytanowy Janusz about Wyckoff .
also i would like to mention that this type of analysis, generally speaking TA has never worked for bitcoin as much as you like it to.

So far I agree with your explanation but it's too early to give up and panic. Bitcoin is normally has a volatile attitude to counter it just trust and advertise more bitcoin so that many investors are getting involve.

Not bad explanation. I agree with your explanation. A few days ago I opened the chart like you to see what's going on to the market. I saw and compared those chart with the current chart and found the behave like you. Now we need to wait few more times to see upmarket.

Very nice, but i alwais try to find and explain to myself why would whale do that, where is his incom etc.
1) Market cycle graph just show how it sould teoriticaly looks like. How it is written in books. Makret likes to be unpredictible. Whales likes to hide their moves. But in most cases when there is no nonmarket risks (regulations, gouverments) or positive news this should like like that. So point for you

2) Wyckoff charts shows whale acumulation process. Simply shows the easies way to accumulate assets for whales. Those deep that you pointed is for causing panic. To buy last coins/shares on big volume. I think that whale already tried to dump below 6000 (during run to 6100) when he was stapped by big volumen (5k+ bitcoins in 5 min only on bitfinex). When i was reading about Wyckoff i also readed that those "spring" is not nessesary and sometimes happends as fake showing that this was distribution not acumulation process to caus bigger volume and panic.

this huge green candle.

That gave this whale (and every other) a signal that he is not the biggest whale here. And those 6000 will be protected. Thats why i think that others wont try to dump lower than 6k as long as we are in accumulation process (it could also be distribution:) ).
Thats why i think that if (according to Wyckoff we are in acumulation) than final try to destroy support to buy more cheep coins was already done and failed. Than we should go up from here. If we are in distribution process - and i doubt about it - than 5000 could be not enought for whale to strat buy again (only 20% profit)

retest to make panic? not sure. panic will be when the price will go below 6

I personally think it holds.. but will go back to retest to make everyone panic.. it can certainly fall through I just personally don't think so.. Its easy to see that the price is being manipulated when you see huge read candle spikes on 1 min candles that are 50x the volume of any other on bitfinex.   Since I firmly believe the price is being manipulated.. I think it makes the most sense to not spiral us into a bear market that could last upwards of a year to squeeze just a bit more gains out of it.. If we break I think  5500 could happen in a flash crash but will quickly wick up.  Either way if we need to get lower, lets get on with it.. if it would just flash crash, it would quit hurting the alt market so much as this long drawn out death.

I think if 6k falls that the resistance at around 4,5-5k will have a difficult time in holding. 6k has become a significant support with it being tested multiple times and it will cause a lot of panic if that support level does break. Also drawing comparisons with 2014 is only good to an extent, this is an entirely different market situation we are in now compared to then.

You can see that the market is down in the long term, bitcoin price after the gas milestone reached $ 19800, then at the current time is constantly falling and stopping at the $ 6500 level. With bitcoin prices still not going through their counterfeit cycle, I believe the market will continue to fall and bitcoin prices will fall further in the coming days.

Hello everybody!

People are trying to guess where is the final point of the current market dump

I have a theory why bitcoin will go down to 5000-4800 levels, I'll try to explain my theory. It based on some observations of past markets

1)
First of all, let's compare Market Cycle graph, Chart BTCUSD 2013-2015, and the current chart. I made an image, https://imgur.com/a/dKBcQ1H
As you can see, a lot of similar points and in general they are VERY SIMILAR
So, Capitulation phase is higher then Anger, Anger is higher then Depression
That's why I can easily imagine, that the price will go below 6000

UPD: 1a) also found GOLD chart — https://imgur.com/a/k6AzZPc — looks also familiar, right?

2)
Recently I found very interesting graphics, based on comparison of the current price chart and Wyckoff charts https://imgur.com/a/opLle8O
This is the second reason why the price can go below 6k

3)
So, where it will stop exactly?
I think, we should keep in mind an area 5000-4800, because this is strong support level and also global 0,236 fib level, what makes it even more powerful
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ml9uJDfU/
I think this could be the final destination

UPD: 4) https://i.imgur.com/kUyjTO1.png. 80% downtrend is about 4k even..


Of course, this is nothing more than theory. But I hope that was at least interesting.

If you found his post interesting,  I will be really appreciated for +merit.   Have good profits!