Topic: Why bitcoin will hit 100000$/BTC in 2014. My conspiracy theory (Read 10183 times)

Individual companies are doing this on their own. Bitcoinity already does this, Mt Gox is thinking of doing this.  Another company that does this already is the Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT) via SecondMarket.  They quote the BIT's NAV at 1/10th the actually Bitcoin price, updated daily once per day.  So currently the NAV is ~$83/share.  Makes people feel like their getting more shares of Bitcoin.

The client already supports mBTC.  It is in the options.  MtGox does not own or operate bitcoinity.  Bitcoinity did that on their own.

mBtc is what you mean? Changing the value of 1 BTC as you told it is more than change of name, but more like a stock split and very hard to do.

Iol at the theory that the gov created bitcoin. I can only imagine the letter instructing the NSA to do it:

Hi NSA,

It's the Fed here, we'd like you to invent a new digital money that works better than any money that has come before it. Leading academic minds have been trying to do it for decades but I'm sure you guys can have it ready by next week. Once you've invented it, create an anonymous 'person' to be the creator, write some blog articles as this person, do some mailing list and forum interactions then one day announce the currency on an obscure cryptographic mailing list. Without any further NSA or gov intervention I'm sure it will just remain in relative obscurity for a couple of years before taking over the world. There'll be a round of drinks on us waiting for you when your done.

Oh and it's a secret, don't tell anyone.

Cheers,
The Fed.

Then so are all the calculations modern economists rely on, so we probably have bigger problems.  Besides, even in my wildest bull dreams I can't see a future where Bitcoin is the only currency.

So what if he was completely off then

The only way you can, he trusted the figures of the central banks.

Ah ok, wasn't sure what you meant. How exactly did he estimate the worlds money supply?

After deciding on 21,000,000 total coins, Satoshi estimated the worlds money supply and set the divisibility so that if bitcoin was the only money in the world, 1 satoshi (1/100,000,000th of a bitcoin, the smallest portion of a bitcoin currently) would be valued at roughly a penny.

If what's 1/100,000,000th? What does the worlds money supply have to do with this?

So what if it is 1/100,000,000th?  Guess what a penny is?  Roughly 1/2,100,000,000,000,000th of the worlds money supply.

That doesn't change the fact it's still a ridiculous fraction of a whole value.

If a toothbrush costs $1.00, I could give you 100 pennies, which are fractions of that whole, but wouldn't it be easier just to give you whole dollar?

Funny enough, when I talk to friends, we most often talk in satoshis for trading. e.g. is 50 satoshis, etc.

The entire aversion to decimal places is easily avoided.

Many altcoins are priced in satoshis.

Some altcoins you price in mBTC.

You buy cars and houses with BTC.

None of it is very difficult.

Oh, you mean 100 satoshis?  That seems like a reasonable way to price a tooth brush.  Don't like that, how about 1 microbtc?

1.) Money is made "out of thin air", there's a whole process involved in harvesting the raw materials, manufacturing them, putting them together, and transporting all of that to the Central Banks. This gives people jobs.
2.) Banks don't control anything, the free market does, banks simply try to curb certain mechanisms so things don't spiral out of control. You can't control how 6 Billion people are going to spend their capital. You can only "try" to maintain an even balance.
3.) And I agree. 21 million coin cap is ludicrously low. If just 21 million people used bitcoin, the value would be so low that you would be dealing in fractions of a whole coin. And people tend not to like purchasing things with more then 2 decimal places. Even if the value of 1btc reaches to $100,000USD, then if someone wanted to buy a toothbrush with btc, they would have to spend .000001 btc, no one wants to deal with such ridiculous fractions for everyday purchases

Anywhere between 100 and 100000 is not out of the question in 2014.  100 would be a 92% decline from ATH which would be a stretch and 100000 would be 100 times increase from current price which is possible given bitcoins history and the possibility of an extreme parabolic rise.  If either happen, I wouldn't expect the price to stay there for long.

Math, you don't understand it. Numbers are not beer. Bitcoin may not be infinitely divisible but it can be divided far enough to make no difference to anyone.

Obvious troll is obvious.

This is simply not true.

Get yourself a nice glass of beer. Notice how the beer is divisible.

Now... languish in the torment that you do not have an INFINITE supply of beer.

1)  "Government" is just a bunch of people with varying agendas.  Any conspiracy of people, some of whom have government jobs, is not an act of "government"  but an act of those people.   Some people with government jobs are pro-fiat.  Some people with government jobs are anti-fiat. This is an exit strategy, to deal with the mathematically inevitable eventual failure of fiat.  As such, it is (1) a clever conspiracy for self-interest and (2) excellent government policy, protecting against a threat to society.

2) Banks are like government, an interlocking collection of communities of interest.  The boards and officers of money-center banks would mostly be opposed to bitcoin, but that does not mean that forward thinking groups within government have their interests aligned with the boards of money-center banks.  In fact, the latter is quite incredibly unlikely.

3) Get this PLEASE.  Bitcoin is infinitely divisible.  The BTC money supply is INFINITE.  Stop the whole 21mln meme before it deludes everyone further.  Unit bias is a psychological fallacy, and purely an issue of user interface.

Yeah ok, i get it now, i have thought about this in some thread here also...

But there are few things that play against this conspiracy theory... Few of them:

1) When gov. has the ability to print money "out of air" then is gives it a huge advantage, why give it up (because you cant do it with bitcoin)... Why should gov. give it up with BTC?
2) Wouldnt mass adoption of BTC (at least in western world) quite destroy the hole idea of banks and their fractional reserve banking  mechanism...? There is a rumour that banks control a lot of whats going on, would they really be in favour of something that might kill them?
3) Smaller one: If BTC was designed really this way from the begging to allow a mass adoption, would it be more likely they would make a bigger cap than just 21 milinon coins...? Because paying for something with 0,0001 BTC on a daily basis just doesnt seem very handy or usefull.

What do you think about thes issues?

Well I guess they are preparing for eMunie and silently getting rid of the competing CCs... 

To play devils advocate, the government in china is pretty much controlled by the same rich businessmen. Is it not in their interest to have the chinese government pushing up the value of their investments.

Yes, you misunderstood.  What I am suggesting is that Treasury and the Fed realize the USD is doomed if the status quo continues.  So, they reached out to the crypto-minds over at the NSA to serruptitiously release XBT in 2009.  The objective being to blow up the status quo and REPLACE it with XBT. 

As the price of XBT rises and gains acceptance, the masses will voluntarily exchange their trillions of USD and other fiat for XBT.  The end game would be XBT as the global, anti-hegemonic, deflationary standard currency with the USD being the sole surviving fiat along with it;  AND minus the over-supply of USD which exists today.

[1] German mark inflation vs gold, exponential. S

Stock traders have to get their head around they have never made any money, ever on any trade. The just swap existing money supply.

BTC is completely different. This is direct currency competition, money itself.

Microsoft, Apple, Exxon, Toyota, BHP ,, never made a single dollar, nor did their stock. Existing money supply given to them.

The existing money supply is controlled by fractional reserve banking in tandem with the capital reserve ratios they ascribe to and interest rates, via  Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions (Banks)

Excluding cash, which is the minor part of the economy, this means everyone ultimately is paid because some one stood in-front of a bank and obtained a loan and ultimately the bank excuted a loan upstream so that you were paid.

The only way to pay of that loan of is  to execute another loan from a bank, and so you get a massive inverted pyramid of never ending loans needing to be executed to service existing loans. This causes endless devaluation of money, and profiteering of banks at your expense or work. It also insulates central government from bad decsion making which cost trillions, because they can just print more money, by self executing loans and propping up the banks with taxpayer labour appropriated by both using the common currency, printing more and tax of that

BTC has for the first time given a mean to catch all of this inefficient behavior, money printing, bad decisions, over taxation.

And we are not talking billions, bit multiple trillions.


[2] $100B is not much money in the scheme of things, and it only needs a little bit of that , to push the market cap to $100 B.

[3] agree, but see 4.

[4] agree

[1] OK, I'm a stock guy.  I'm giving the benefit of the doubt calling XBT a stock.  Ok, lets go currency.  What's the daily maximum value you've seen a currency go up?  Ok, maybe a commodity?  How much does gold move?  XBT acts more like a penny stock (yes, not anymore) than anything else currently on the market so refer to it as a "stock".

[2] That still $100B in -new- money needed to get to 10k...

[3] BTC is a -possible- S curve uptake event.  So far.  But there is enough negative news that can effect the price more than the actual fundamentals.

[4] I've actually posted about that in another post.  There will a country that fully embraces XBT.  It won't be US, Russia, China, etc.  It will be a somewhat smaller country with a very inflated currency.  Money will flow into that country.  I think that is the best bet for XBT exponential price increase.

yes I am sure it was very easy holding as price went from $1 up to $1000, and it will be much more difficult to hold when price goes from $1000 to $1m 

[1] BTC is not a stock, when will you stock people understand this,

do you understand that no one made money selling stock/buying them? All you do is swap around existing fiat, that is gov controlled by basel III CCR, through FRB.

[2] In here (the BTC forum) it looks like everyone knows about BTC, out there, look around, I can go to any public area, shops, beach, park,  and everyone I see, 10 000's of people, none of them know about (in any actual detail) and less, 1/100,000 have btc.

[3] BTC is an S curve uptake event, that will likely go faster as it gets bigger until it reaches saturation, like email, microwaves etc. The saturation point is some where in the xx trillions. The only question that remains it what share of the pie will BTC, vs LTC, PPC, NXT, EMUNIE and

[4] Wealth will flow to whatever entity legalises/ uses BTC Since Singapore Denmark, Germany have legalised BTC capital will flow to them, the city of London, will also come online, which operates as a power unto itslef, with thousands of years of history. Where there money to be made the City will do it. Thats why it does +1.3 T forex a day.

BTC can fork to tech that it needs, has a competent dev, and network effect, but you never know.

wow this is a good idea at least i think... i have heard that the FED will haveto somehow "extract" the additional money (it printed) from the system... So your idea is that it has made bitcoin and when theres enough money in it, they will crash it somehow, thus "destroying" the money they wanted to destory. Did i get it right? (im not, thats why im asking). Thats quite a brilliant idea!

But i think its not true, because even when it sounds possible, dont forget that the money which "is" in bitcoin wont get destroyed, it will just get transfered from the last buyer of bitcoin to the last seller... Thats all. The money still exist, it just changed hands. The only waya how to really destroy is, when the last seller of bitcoin (thus the person receivng majority of the cash) would be the FED or GOV, this means that they would have to hold the appropriate ammount on BTC. Which would have to be huge...

Its an interesting idea, maybe i didnt fully understood it, how did you meant it please in detail?

Thats just stupid... :-(

1)Nobody cares about the name (satoshi), in addition, it was given to the smallest BTC fraction by the community
2) Be sure that the people in the charge ARE very inteligent
3) Dollar is probably already dead its justr a matter of a time, so why dont come beforehand with something different.

Lol, I will bet no, probably .5-1 BTC within the next week.  And I will I hope you win.   But honestly think I will win.  Too soon and too quick.

No, I'm one of the humble 1 btc betters. On the yes side. Bet no!

Nothing is impossible,  bitcoin will rise up but 100k in 2014 will be high prediction lets hope it will reach 10K so next will be turn of 40-50K

So is that you hedging your bets?  Yes 57 No 42 BTC?  Pretty sure same person with both bets...

Hi! Throw money at me! http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

But you must realise how very few people are in Bitcoin at the moment. It really is a small fraction, even of those of the right generation, demographic, geographic location etc.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - media coverage is highly fickle. We've had the impression that Bitcoin has been all around the world and back in 2013 - that really could not be further from the truth. It is an infant!

It will keep growing exponentially until nobody will sell BTC for $. At that point there is no point of exchanging any more and the exponentiality will stop.

Fairly simple actually, stocks don't grow exponentially after a certain point, it just isn't feasible.  XBT increased its market cap in one year by ~10B.  Which was a great feat.  But for XBT to increase 100x again, the market cap would have to increase from 10B to something with way too many zero's on it in one year.  

Can it get there eventually?  Who knows.  A LOT of factors have to fall into place for that to happen. 

Wall Street could push Bitcoin over $100k. Bitcoin went 100x in 2013, why not again in 2014?

I don't think there is "no way" we can't go above 2k this year.  I think 10k and 100k is fairly obviously a near "no way" bet.  But didn't Mom teach you -never- use an absolute?

I think we can see 2k this year.  I reference the commodity and stock markets a lot.  XBT has $12MM "shares" outstanding, and way less in the float (what can be freely traded).  Maybe $7MM?  Lost, locked up, government owned, etc.  That is a really small amount of shares to be freely traded in a worldwide market.  It's one of the reason XBT prices reacts so much on positive or negative news.

As Kurzweil and others have pointed out, this is a "flaw" in our human predictive software. We have great difficulty understanding exponential growth, despite the fact that is all around us in nature all the time. We tend to think in terms of linear change, and this works out pretty well for most day- to day problem solving issues. We have only recently (evolutionary-wise) had to struggle with understanding, anticipating & managing exponential change. Up till recently nature has been handling this without our participation. This is a massive gap in our collective ability to respond wisely to much of the change affecting the planet and complex systems.

Albert Einstein is said to have called "the power of compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe." He was not just talking about money. He was talking about understanding exponential change.

Lighten up.  This is a CONSPIRACY thread.

That means any marginally plausible posts are to be expected.  Sheesh, some of you actually believe posters are truly pushing substantive ideas.  [We're not, btw]

-----------

Now, as I was saying:  The "satoshi" name was a brilliant misdirection which some appear to be falling for wholesale.  Same goes for the other misdirections.

Why would Treasury or the Fed do it?  Because there is no other way to pull all those trillions out of the system without blowing up the global economy.  The dollar (and all fiat) boat has been sinking since 1913 when a dollar was actually a dollar.  Today's dollar will buy what $.03 would have bought in 1913.  This is not new news; and there are plenty of smart people who have known for quite some time that propping up the global economy by printing (globally) $100-200 billion per month is unsustainable. 

Creating an entirely new government-neutral currency is a brilliant way out for any country wanting a way out of the fiat farce.  It's actually the USD that will benefit most (or is adversely affected the least) because as the current dominant reserve currency, when all the others go tits up, people will still be converting BTC to/from the USD.

I do not understand why people have such trouble with the exponential function.

C'mon guys, be realistic... No way we can go beyond 2000 this year...

I do not understand why people think logarithmic. From 100 to 1000 it's a ten-fold increase but just 900 usd growth. 900 usd growth from here would bring us at ... 1600. And gold parity will be a major battle.

Guys, think about it for a while.

To be able to control worlds reserve currency is one of the biggest weapons US has. Why on earth would they be giving that power willingly away? That is just not plausible. Americans would also never ever invent a currency that calls one of its units with a japanese name "Satoshi".

Remember that the people running US are not exactly technological geniuses. Many of the have serious problems even understanding what bitcoin is about. Can you imagine a secret meeting in which some government hacker suggests:

"Hey guys, I came up with this idea! Now this might sound complicated to some of you but it's really great.. Well we can't control our currency anymore if we do this, but please listen the whole story before you downvote! It's based on cryptography which you NSA guys hate, but don't be too fast to dismiss this complicated plan..."

After the long silence, there would probably be a single liner like "Tom, your fired."

The Department of Defense has DARPA.  The CIA has multiple Black Ops.  It is not impossible that those at the Fed, Treasury, or CIA had the foresight to have created their own DARPA equivalent plans and responses, then seeded those responses as a response to the ongoing crisis.  Low and behold one of them actually took root and now we are where we are with it.

Satoshi is thought to have mined almost 1 million BTC?  Really, now...what real life person or group of people would have the discipline to resist so much temptation?  Sure, it could be those early coins were tossed away on a HDD, but I give such a genius or geniuses more credit than that.  Well, people are watching those coins now.  Perhaps someday, all will be made known.

As per my previous post, Treasury has more to gain than any other person or entity.  Follow the money...

Also someone would have offed him by now if his identity was known. So, there is that.

I agree Satoshi was incredibly clever for not coming forward publicly, but for other reasons, he has essentially semi deified himself, entered in mythology and there can be little criticism of him, nor can he be decried, or make a mistake.

He would have faced all of these issues had he remained public.

It interesting for that Satoshi had enough foresight to actually understand the implications of what he had just done so many years out.

yes that may get him a presidential pardon.

Hey Prez, want me to pay of your xT debt give me a pardon and I'll do it

Yes, I will take that bet.  For me, it's a win-win situation!  If it doesn't make it I get a 60% return currently.  If it does go above 10k by Nov 29th, I get a 1000%+ return.  How do I lose, right??

The opposite is true.  China's funny paper (yuan) to the U.S., while real money (btc) go to China.  Same with gold.  We tried to send them USD, but they learned from that trick, and now they are sending us yuan.

I've come to the same conclusion, and really if we're talking about a small group of individuals working sans permission from their superiors, it really doesn't matter whether they're with the government or not.

Satoshi, whether a group or individual, was incredibly clever for not coming forward publicly to claim Bitcoin.  This focuses people's attention to the technology, not the man behind the technology.  How many times have we seen the messenger denigrated as a way to distract from the message?

I see your point that bitcoin could be a potential solution to the US government debt and entitlement funding problem, but the facts don't support a large organization like the "Fed" having created it.  If this were the case, it would surely have leaked to enough "friends of friends" that network difficultly would have shot up much faster (after Satoshi published the genesis block on the 3rd of January 2009), and the long bear market after the 2011 growth spurt would not have dipped to $2.


The conspiracy theory falls apart completely if we imagine that Jennifer from FINTRAC, that dude with the gelled-hair from the FBI, and that nice-wise-grand-dad-like senator were all "in on it."  I doubt those people had ever met prior to the senate hearings on virtual currencies.  I think the "love fest" was actually just a "balanced discussion" and shows that a lot of people in the US government are thoughtful and open-minded. 


The conclusion that I've come to is that if bitcoin was created by a government organization, it was done by a very small group of individuals working without the knowledge or permission of their superiors. 

Who here thinks this is sustainable?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGMBASE?cid=124

This will be an engineered collapse.  Yes, engineered.

The question is - how will Bitcoin weather the storm?

2k is nothing at all. I have good money riding on 10k next year, but maybe you would like to enrich me a little further? http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

I think an average of between $10 and $20 up per day until the end of 2014. But you can be sure that won't be quick enough for some people. 

I think the "easy" money is gone for Bitcoin.  I like the settling we're having in the 650-850 range.  Building up a good support, and of course resistance.  If bitcoin had a vix it would be off the wall, so a little price stability isn't bad at all.  If we see $2,000 next year I'd be happy.  Slow and steady wins the race...

Speculation masquerading as fantasy, and fantasy masquerading as speculation! Lovely.

Chinese tend to take a long-term view whileas Westerners tend to take a short-term view. Chinese obviously know the advantages and disadvatages of bitcoin/cryptocurrency. They have a plan that stretches 10, 20, 30 years. Americans and Europeans will be at the losing end of stick in a few decades. I put my money on China winning. The trend does not lie.

No, I am not Chinese.

Fiat is unsustainable and it's becoming obvious even to the average politician. Why wouldn't they transition from something that is doomed to end in poverty and war as it always has, to something if not better then at least different enough to carry them along for another few decades?

I don't personally have any theories about who invented it, the only thing I feel confident about is that it was not any one single person who did it all. It's too complex and the timing and functionality is too perfect. Which means to me that it could be some sort of banking or government project (any of them, not necessarily the US gov). Then again it could just as easily be a group of nerds with a vision, possibly even japanese ones.

Except... this isn't just any currency with a phantom creator. It completely changes the idea of what currency can be, and manifest in that change is the destruction of the Federal Reserve and each and every one of it's employee's roles. It's not plausible that they would be so motivated to pay off the US public debt that they would happily destroy themselves and all the power and spoils that they enjoy.

Obvious troll is obvious.

Nice thread, but I think the OP and others are looking at the situation from the wrong end of the microscope.

My conspiracy theory is that perhaps the Fed is behind crypto-currencies.  Think about it.  They've expanded the balance sheet by well over $14 Trillion since the housing collapse and have run out of tools to use.  They have been relying on *poof* money creation to keep the system afloat.  That is unsustainable and there is no "out" to rein in all that liquidity.

Unless one simply created another currency and converted a huge chunk of to that new currency.  Well, lookie thar!  A new currency with a mysterious origin just *poofs* onto the scene right after a new administration takes over and sees that things are a complete and utter non-fixable mess.  So, they maintain the status quo until the new currency gets some good footing, but without outright endorsing it lest it draw attention.  "A love fest" was how the congressional hearings were described, wasn't it?  Not to mention the strategic value a totally new currency might have in curtailing the growing influence of China - our biggest banker.

I could go on for pages, but I'll stop well short.  Just think about it:  The Fed and Treasury actually behind BTC.  Oh, the possibilities boggle the mind!

Also worth considering:  BTC can be denominated down to 8 decimal places.  Isn't a Satoshi = 100 millionth?  So if one were to take our national debt and do the math, then it does seem plausible that a BTC should be at least $100,000 USD.  That would be a more supportable arguement for such an obscene(?) valuation.

Yes, the mind gets boggled with the possibilities...

the U.S. already has hundreds of thousands of bitcoins as a reserve currency (seized from DPR by the FBI)

i think we'll eventually see other nations hop on the bandwagon as well, but 100,000 in a year? that's pretty unlikely.

i wonder how much the confiscated Ross Ulbricht coins will be worth a few years down the road.  I can see the headlines already: "jailed man single handedly paid off USA's debt to china"

Tenfold increase every year. 100k by 2016.

That's not absurd, unsustainable or any of the other nonsense. That's fully to be expected given the current very low level of adoption and the ever growing awareness and demand.

Anyone wanna play a round of golf on the moon?

China is understood !!!

U.S give most BTC to China and takes most real money of the Chinese people. Give nothing for real money !!!
It is tactical general impoverishment of China.

Check this, 99% transaction U.S and China !!! Chinese real money (yuan) go to U.S wallets.
http://fiatleak.com/

I agree with this, but does anyone see 50k/bitcoin in the next couple years?
         
                                               
Or is it just a few who believe it will go this high and... is there any experienced traders on here who are long bitcoin but
think anything between 10k and 50k is ridiculous?

I'm thinking you probably chose the wrong username...

Stop posting nonsense, your topic should be removed, not even realistic. Should be under category of "fantasy", not "speculation".

OP, you long pressed your "0" too much and have 2 0s more.

Exactly. Gentleman, I think BTC is the de-facto new world currency. 

Strategically, it makes sense for the Chinese to quietly push for a stateless decentralised currency of any type. They can avoid getting any scapegoating when the US dollar nightmare unwinds.

I like your theory!

But realistically, it's just wealthy Chinese investing. I invested some for some Chinese businessmen back in the 50s after the April crash. Then Baidu announced accepting BTC, getting the ball rolling -plus free trading at BTCChina, people put money in to trade, pushing up the price, causing a mania - Asians love this type of stuff.

If I have learned anything this year, it is that I am unable to overestimate what bitcoin can do.

You might have managed, though.

Maybe this is their exit strategy

China will never supply cryptocurrencies. It is centralized country.

I got in early enough for two orders of magnitude, and they've come far faster than I ever expected.  Another two seems -- possible, but I doubt they will be nearly as fast.

Over the next 30 years or so.  Most of China's USD holdings are in US treasury bonds not "cash".

There's a chance it'll hit $10k per BTC, albiet fairly small.

I doubt 100k, though.

Who knows, may be they are doing it right now.

maybe China will use their trillions of USD toilet paper reserves to buy bitcoins

Yes, consolidation around here would be good for a while.

It won't hit 100k in 2014.

Lower your expectations, you'll be less disappointed when things don't go your way.

Slow, steady rise is the best. I'd love if the price would settle around this level. 600-700.

That's amazing rise from previous ATH and good floor for future rise.

China suspect that US is silently support cryptocurrencies so when china GDP surpass US and EU GDP, their CNY cannot become "new USD". China reply by pushing cryptocurrencies ahead faster so they'll undermine current established financial systems controlled by US. US fear that China will lead the financial revolution and they'll fall behind so US jump ahead to be sure that they'll be the first riders of waves of the future. This causes an arm race and bitcoin hit 100000$/BTC soon. He he he...