Topic: Why do we need a bull market blow off top ? (Read 312 times)

2017 had a bigger exit. because those that bought into the 2013's $1.2k ATH, then waited 3-4 years at sub $900 amounts. feeling like they were at a constant loss for 3-4 years. then it sprung upto 2017's $20k ATH, so they exited thinking it was their lucky day, never to re-occur again. they were happy to leave with an 16x (1600%) for 4 year wait.

the 2017 $20k ATH to 2020 $65k was only a 3.25x and so people were not as jumpy about exiting.
those that bought at 2017's ATH want atleast a 5x so $100k minimum
there is also a bunch that bought in at the 2018 $4k YL (year low) want to get out with a 20x(2000%) investment for 3-4 years. so wanting $80-$100k

so thats why the $100k is a popular rounded number alot of people are collectively chanting

Well, people would always choose the quicker profit than the slow one that is going to take them so many months for them to get there. If the price should go up quickly it would favor a lot of day traders/short term traders who are looking for profit on a daily. Imagine trading in a day and the market suddenly starts going up in a very huge way and you make good profit? You would be very happy. The only people who wouldn’t mind if the price should taken long before reaching that high are those people who are buying to HODL for a long term. If it takes six to eight months they wouldn’t care that much.

The reason people are looking for the price to blow up is just to make some profits but I do think it's near Christmas and many of them would be taking out money to celebrate the festivals therefore the up and down of the price chart is quite viable. Now let's talk about how we can still earn money through cryptocurrencies :
1. Trading
Day trading is still beneficial
2. Long term holding
These are the few things that we can still do and the scenario that you described is something that is definitely not possible since bitcoins at the end of the day cannot really run around in boundaries, the limited supply makes the final price extremely unpredictable and at the same time with the current circumstances, I do think that it's highly unlikely that something like this is gonna happen.

i have a hoard since 2012 meaning my gains from ~$6/coin are like 10,000x.
what you learn is hoarders that actually hold long term dont get excited about daily prices. they stop checking after a while as they have no intension to sell any time soon so they dont care about the immediate price.

im in profit no matter what happens to the price. so the excitement of daily/monthly prices is not there anymore.

its like pension pots. people dont check the balance of their pension holdings daily. weekly.

its the short term investors hoping and praying to get out soon that get emotional, always talking about how they want the price to double within a few weeks or months.

when you spot people shouting out how they want to see the price attain XXX by spring 2022 what they are actually saying is "i hope to exit and escape bitcoin in spring 2022 and to get back to fiat holding lots of profit"

they are not interested in hoarding or holding. they just want quick profits. they care more about getting FIAT to then be rich in FIAT.

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when i know the price has attained say $65k+ before. and the current price is $30k-$50k. im not thinking i hope it gets above $65k again. instead i KNOW eventually it will attain more then $65k again. so for now i just see the $30k-$50k as good investment discount time to buy more while its below a future value. so i can add more for my future retirement hoard knowing it will reap its rewards by the time i decide its time to retire(not any time soon)

I usually think those looking to exit either bought at the floor or close to it (having intended to do so) so those exiting would have been those buying March 2020. OR those who've been through a second cycle, meaning those who bought close to 2017 top.

I have to say though, haven't personally come into contact with anyone who exited this year, unlike in 2017 when I counted a handful. Any exit now or running up to $100k (if it happens) would probably be out of reluctance.

The advantage is on us, the holders and early buyers because we're already in profit and we don't mind selling. That's true about the market maintaining its control.
We won't see a forever increase if there's no correction. But if we see such, we should see the control with it and that's a positive outlook if you're optimistic with that behavior of the market.

This is completely true, things changed for Bitcoin only after 2017 when it entered the mainstream media and social networks. Until then, even those who were familiar with how things worked were quite reserved about how much Bitcoin was actually worth, not only in terms of value in fiat but also asset that could protect them from ever-present inflation.

Of course, things changed even more when big investors started investing in Bitcoin, which encouraged their followers to do the same. And since they promote "buy dips, and hold strategy" people accept that and the price of Bitcoin is relatively stable despite the fact that there will always be people who are not happy with the current situation.

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Maybe I mispronounced, I wanted to say that people usually have some sort of exit point and that many would sell for $100k, while some others who invested later might wait for $120k. Greed can often be expensive in the end, so while people always complain that they could have profited more, someone who invested in the time around the last halving (around $7000) and sold for around $100k should not be unhappy that they earned x15 more than invested.


Do you think that there are not enough smart people who know how to judge when is the right time to sell? I would not agree with that, because I know that there are such people - so although I am not an expert, I can say that I sold part of the BTC at the last ATH close to $70k, just enough to afford a pleasant Christmas and New Year holidays. I consider it a smart move that I did not wait for December, but that the right time was November, which turned out to be correct.

Profits and sentiments.

People are taking profit when they feel that they needed too thus, the bull market stops and it is going to the other side. There is something that we call as psychological resistance where investors think that this price is the resistance therefore they will sell their holdings at that price. In this case, the psychological resistance is $70,000 but it seems that investors took profit too early and it only reach $69,000 as the ATH.

Sentiments is also one because we know that crypto markets are heavily driven by emotions, by sentiments of these investors. If we see a very bad news, this can also be a reason for the market to go down and an opposite scenario when we see a good news.

With regards to Bitcoin staying to a price range, I don't think that this is possible because not even stock market or any market has this kind of thing. Even other markets have bull and bear market and so is crypto market. No bear market seems impossible because there will be a time that investors will be in absolute fear therefore, they will sell their holdings.

IMO its still possible to get profit from BTC without even if it didnt hit 100k. On 20 Dec 2021, Bitcoin went down to 45k and now after 6 days its sitting at 50k. So there is still margin of earning profit if you keep an eye on bitcoin price. You need to be brave to invest when everyone running away from buying.

Of course, it would be good since everyone seems to benefit from it instead of a sudden pump which will gonna make some other investors fall on their knees and start to sell their BTC which they were planning to hold until next halving. Because as soon as they see the price, most likely they gonna temp to sell it as they watch everyone sell their BTC as well. Small movement of the price is preferable to seeing it pump and crashing afterward.

only one thing is for sure, wherein manipulators wants to see the price in the very dip level reason it always plunges.  Indeed they're the common reason why its always happened ever since before.. That why weak hands always going crazy as well.. Lol  well that's what it is mate so accept the fact. The cheaper the price the higher chance of good return.  

Well, basically because a lot of people are very optimistic and rushing to cash out there Btc holdings. While the others are only happy to see Bitcoin to be finally in a 6 digits figure.
The only thing that most of these types of people doesn't know is that, If Bitcoin will have another huge rise It could end up in a worst dump in the history of cryptocurrency.
Another thing that they don't know is that, Btc doesn't keep rising, corrections and bearish run is a sign of a healthy market, that a lot of people are actually using it or constantly trading the currency. The recover is more of a significant sign of a healthy market.
We all want profit, but let's just be patient with what we have invested.
 

Many people buy bitcoin to hold it, but do these people know to what price they will hold it? For example, a person who bought bitcoin at 3000 set himself the goal of selling it at a price of 20,000. His goal has been achieved, but now he is probably sorry that he did not sell it at 60k. But those who are now buy for 50k, at a price of 100k or 150k, received only x2-x3 from their investments, that is, they will not receive such a big profit. They need to wait for the bitcoin price to fall and only buying on the fall can you expect a good profit in the future.

How will people know that bitcoin has reached its peak ?  Some people think 100,000$ will be peak and exit. They will regret if they see bitcoin going up to 120,000$ or more. Many will not exit at 135,000$ thinking it will go to 150,000$.

The problem with blow off top is that no one will be able to catch the top. Some will exit early and others will be stuck at high.

Very well said. Now Bitcoin is a tough bone to crack and I firmly believe that in coming months and years we will not see the kind of volatility we had experienced back in 2017 and 2018. The reasons are simple but logical, The marketcap is 4X compared to 2018 and huge institutional support and tangible progress towards mass adoption.

The fact is that as in the two previous cycles there was a blow off top, the predictive models expected the same for this date already. What happens is that the regularities serve more to understand the past than to predict the future and not because there was a blow off top in the previous two cycles there has to be this one.


It can be like that or not. We are entering uncharted territory and we don't know if the price is going to do that or go 4 years without going above $70K, although I think those of us who are in this see that in the long term the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise, both because of its intrinsic properties and the devaluation of fiat currencies.

Some people are more greedy than others.Some people want fast and big profits now.
Other people want slow,steady and predictable profits,which are happening in a long time frame.
Nobody is saying that "we need" the Bitcoin price to hit a big ATH.If it happens,that would be great,but it won't be the end of the world,if Bitcoin never hits a price above 100K USD.
There's no sense of urgency for Bitcoin to hit a certain price level.
There's no drama,if the Bitcoin price drops severely back to 30K USD,because there will always be the possibility for the Bitcoin price to recover and hit a new ATH.

A correction would give more strength to the market in the long run to survive and grow. Seeing bitcoin pump with a huge percentage in just a short period of time is not healthy for me without a correction it may look like a bubble where it will pump and will die afterward. Some anti bitcoin call the success of bitcoin a bubble, but they were proven wrong many times because everytime bitcoin collapse, it's ready to recover and even break its ATH.

Price pump so high because it's overvalued, and the main reason is the hype during the bull run, so once an asset is overvalued it's normally corrected so the market will be stable.

Let's get one thing clear. The "top" in the sense of a bubble's top similar to 2017 is not any arbitrary price that is higher than the current price. You can't just multiply the current price by 2 and call that similar to 2017 either. Otherwise $6k was also double of $3k or $12k was double of $6k and so on and none of them were like 2017 and didn't cause a "bear market".

The "top" that can be called a bubble that would lead to a long bear market and a similar 80% to 85% crash can only happen if the price has gone up SIGNIFICANTLY in a SHORT TIME.
That means a similar size as 2015 to 2017 rise ($150 to $20,000) in the same time frame. That means reaching above $400k and anything below that is small rises leading to that bubble peak. And none of those price levels can repeat the bear market of 2018.

How about people who bought at $10k-$20k and still holding until now?

I am sure they have a big smile seeing the price now is back to $50k

But I am pretty sure that people who have bitcoin, no matter how much the price they get, will want to see bitcoin will be at more than $100k so they will hold for more. I can not imagine what holders from a long time ago feel when they see the price now hahaha because they do not need to sell many bitcoins and only need to sell for 1 bitcoin to get their initial money plus they will get a huge profit.

people that bought at say $50k-$65k want 2 things.

1. to get the price up (more bull) to $100k-$130k so they can profit and exit
2. to get the price down (a bear) to $25k-$32k so they can buy more at 50% discount than initial purchase

Because people aren't contented in what 2021 brings them from the start of the year, or there are so many greedy people here that keeps on asking when the truth is they are not contributing at all.
that is a pure proof of how manipulated the market and not healthy anymore.
That is the sign of a Healthy marketing , when the price is moving up slowly but not having a Huge correction at time.

actually bull market and bullrun has its own advantages and we really need both. the bitcoin market has a very good balance in my opinion, when the market has hit a strong hit it needs a strong catch to keep the market under control.

IMO, Bitcoin fluctuation is simply the norm and it will always remain like this.  

There are two kinds of investors who had opposite reactions during this fluctuation, the holders that potentially sell when there's a bull market and the new investors that hoping that Bitcoin has a correction to begin to invest in Bitcoin and the cycle will repeat when new investors become a holder and wanted to make a profit and the holder become to reinvested and waiting for the opportunity that Bitcoin price will at in the correction stage.

Good thing that Bitcoin has gained more investors and the law of demand and supply will determine this stuff.  It will not surely have a price dip the same as before like in 2017.

And do you know what was the reason why it moves up and down? We all know it's because of the volatility of the market but do you know why? It's because of the traders and not every traders are the same, some are easily to panic when there's a FUD and some will just hodl until it's the right time to sell. "Buy low, and sell high" that's what driving the others to trade and we can't expect everyone will do the same. It's better if there's a blow off top so that the market could sustain longer and steady run unlike in 2017, you will see that there's no blow off top during that time, the market didn't just hit its peak but it's continuously moving upward and I think most people that time aren't aware of the price correction that's why the market just went down continuously until it hits a bottom just because a FUD from China and a hacking of the exchanges.

I think a primary reason for the blow off tops in 2011, 2013 and 2017 was that Bitcoin was still not so well-known to the average investor. So they weren't informed about the real advantages, but also the challenges (like scalability) that are characterizing this asset.

If you don't really know what Bitcoin is about, and then you see the price increase so sharply like in the last months of 2017, then you maybe will think that there is "a revolution going on that you don't understand" and you will invest blinded by FOMO. This was fueled additionaly by the altcoin and ICO craze in that year.

In 2021 this has changed. Almost all major media networks in the world regularly report on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Most people (with a certain level of education) know about cryptos. And BTC/USD prices are reported e.g. in the finance/economy/business TV channels.

So while I think there will be still volatility, this "revolution I don't understand"-thing that may have fueled the last rallys is losing importance. So most investors are better informed, they know more about Bitcoin's characteristics, advantages and challenges (and this is imo also the reason why Ethereum hasn't "taken over" the crypto market - most people now know that it is significantly more centralized than BTC and has another disadvantages). All these things in my opinion make a "final FOMO-driven blow off top" much more unlikely now.

The good thing is: this means that also the extremely deep crashes of 2013 and 2017 are more unlikely now. Bitcoin is maturing, and more and more people now know that it's a revolution. But they understand why, and why it's perhaps still not ready for adoption by billions of persons (but indeed for adoption by hundreds of millions).

I have to disagree with you. Do you have any solid proof that everyone is looking for that big push? Whales are playing with the market. Not all, even whales, are bound to buy back at a high price to consider.


I don't see that scenario will happen. As I said, there's always an attempt to crash the momentum of the bull trend.

For some traders, they don't want that the trend will always go up. Instead, they like a price swing. It's more profitable than a serious holding for long according to their investment point of view.

It is because of the volatility. As much as we want bitcoin to stay at that prices because there's security to us that it's better to be on those prices, we just can't let it stay it there because it moves up and down, slowly and sometimes rapidly within a few hours. It's good for everyone that we have the price stable for bitcoin to conclude how much we've got in our portfolio and stays there. But as always, bitcoin has been volatile and whether we want it or not to stay at the high prices, time will come that it will have its correction.

People expect a repeat of the past, the "want" it because it's something that would be easy to profit from.


Yeah, you can dream about Bitcoin going up without ever going down, but the reality is, it's a volatile market that is prone to having bullish and bearish periods. And you can make money by selling high, buying back low and then selling high again.

And why you would wait for a long time when you can profit huge when the price goes to $130k?

Investors knows how to mitigate the risk and hedge everything when the price is going down. And I would say it's inevitable, if the price goes up because of a massive bull run, sooner or later the bubble will burst. And so far we haven't seen the price going steady for months or years, it's either we have a bull run, a massive spike or a complete opposite in bear market.

Any one expecting the event of 2017 is just a scavenger looking to pound on what Bitcoin can offer, personally I don't check the price value of Bitcoin all the time because I am not a short term investors, I don't even consider myself an Investor I see myself as a Bitcoin enthusiast that would forever be in Bitcoin no matter it falling or rising price, that what we really need now for maximum adoption of Bitcoin and crypto-currency in general.

I'd honestly be okay if Bitcoin were to, say, stabilize forever around $50k. It's a great price, and then people could be more inclined to view it as a form of money rather an investment. But that, of course, wouldn't be good for traders or long-term investors. Regarding people who want the bear market, it's most likely because they feel that the price is too high to invest now, and they want to buy the dip. So for greedy people, it would not be good if Bitcoin never went into the bear market. As for the actual risk of Bitcoin getting there, I think we already saw it go down from more than $60k to $30k, so I think we're past the bear market now. Bitcoin can still move up and down, but given how things have been over the last couple of years, I don't think we'll see a long bear market (similar to that of 2018-2019) anymore. Bitcoin's too popular, and enough people buy the dip for that to repeat.

Participants in this market need high price volatility in order to sell high and buy low. This is the basic law of this market. The sharp drop in prices also allows one to get rid of the weak hands of doubters who immediately start selling their assets in cryptocurrency. Therefore, we always want to see a high price rise in our cryptocurrency and do not mind falling prices in the market after taking profit. Such a surge in prices allows us to make a decent profit.

Some want it, some others not. If you ask me, I don't want to have a bull market that will last for 3 months followed by a bear market that will last 3 years. Easy vibes with easy candles. Please don't inflate, cause when the bubble bursts, the ones who'll use it as a currency, honestly, will take the rap.

Yeah, I love seeing by balance have a 2x within few weeks, but that usually doesn't last long.

Pretty simple. We don't really "need" it; it's just that lots of people are expecting a blow-off top like what we had in December of 2017 so they can hopefully dump their bags at the peak and relax and wait out the expected 3-year bear market. Yea, like everything will happen the exact same way.

Whales are called whales since they invest money and trust in bitcoin when it's down and out. How many of us bought bitcoin  when it was 1$, 10$ or 100$? There were not many, most of us are busy making fun of bitcoin at that time. It's whales who were busy buying and mining bitcoin on there laptops at that time. These are my few satoshis about whales, now they are manipulating the market which is not liked by small fishes.

Bitcoin has been hijacked by whales who would like to profit off the swings, without the rapid movement of price in either direction it will not be a profitable investment for them.
What you hope for is hard to achieve until Bitcoin is widely spread such that the whales lose their grip on Bitcoin.

Technically that is a bull market. If it keeps going up it's bull, if it keeps going down it's bear.
What we don't want as people in it for the long term are rapid jumps in both directions. That just makes everyone twitchy.

There are a lot of people who react without thinking when the price spikes up or down quickly that is what we don't want.

-Dave

Maybe because there are people who just want to profit from Bitcoin? It is important for them that the price reaches a peak as soon as possible, which will mark the exit point and their conversion into fiat. After that, it is only important that Bitcoin repeats its show, which means as much correction as possible and a new beginning of the game "buy low, sell high".

And it is more than obvious that 2021 bears no resemblance to 2017, as the price is still $20 000 higher than at the end of last year and it is possible that the positive trend will continue in 2022. I guess there are a lot of those who wanted the bear market so badly that they are not happy about how this year ends. Bitcoin has once again proved to be a tough nut to crack, despite some so-called experts being convinced of it.

As you know everyone is looking the final blow of top for the bitcoin bull market like it happened in 2017. I have a serious question that why we need a big blow off top to conclude the bull market and enter a bear market.

Consider for a moment that Bitcoin prices moves to all time high of around 130,000$ and then in the next week we are at 90,000$ and then slowly we moved towards 30,000$. Why everyone wants this blow off top ?

Why can't bitcoin stay between 40K to 60K and slowly moves towards 100,000K taking 6 to 8 months and no bear market. Wouldn't it be good for everyone?