Topic: Why does it keep falling ? (Read 9426 times)

May I get a @mod/@Admin to verify the email address on my account hasn't changed since this account was created?

Stop lying and flexing with bought accounts lol 

carbonc here... I'm @USCG_Vet on Telegram.  And I'm @USCGVet5555 on Twitter.

Ideally one way to collect the BTC is by capturing the bottom price every year and selling the top price every year but of course thats easier said then done.    If we go with the view every year ongoing is likely to see higher prices overall then we have to keep some idea of being more bullish after sell offs because almost always its outside news like China once again confirms they are a communist military dictatorship; luckily we still have the free will to understand this is their weakness and rigidity is not always strength they presume.
  Theres a 4 year cycle observable and many complications but I hope to keep improving my trading back and forth while still being net positive overall.

We need to thank the bumper of this thread, who reminded us about the story we have to tell our grandchildren. Too bad I missed out on when BTC was buying a gallon of milk, but I am glad when I got in, 1 coin could not even buy a return plane ticket for me to overseas but now it can buy me and all my family business class seats and 5-star hotels for a week.

Now,,, my problem is still trying to collect that one BTC, the ultimate dream!

let them get caught up with fake news and let them panic sell, because market conditions are being influenced by investors who want to buy bitcoin at very low prices. You should be able to refrain from this game, because when investors start adopting all prices will be pumped back very quickly and start taking the opportunity to sell your pending assets.

Different news works behind the reduction of Bitcoin price where panic cells are the main reason. It is only natural that the price of any asset will go down when there is more sale order than buy order. Other wise the reasons that is being observed at the moment there is a complication with the future trading option of Binance in Australia as well as new requirements wanted by south Korean crypto regulation from the ten Korean crypto currency exchanges.

At present thousands of fake news are being made all the time.  We are constantly being deceived by such false news. We should not listen to any rumors. Don’t take any decision without good research. And one of the most important thing is don't panic. Bitcoin prices have down fall due to panic sale.

We do always have a problem on breaking every 10k increments which is something not unsual but rather it is always something a wall which cant really be penetrated easily
unless if there is some strong hype or sentiments behind thats why its really hard to determine whether it could make some breakout or would really be rejected for how many times.
Falling or Rising, these are the only ways or paths on where market prices do go but there are lots of factors which need to be considered first before making any decision or step.

Its generally rising within a channel right now, we are below the 2 day average but above the weekly average which is where I generally weigh up prospects overall as positive or negative.



Overall even if it falls back to 48k over these next few days it has to considered as likely to continue positively.   Just going on the basis of higher lows and higher highs its not been negative since late July where we reversed very strongly.   If the wider market pulls back it could mean BTC also suffers negative sentiment and leverage unwinding but thats not on the horizon yet.

Finally, Bitcoin price has started to rise again. It has been having a problem on breaking the $48k and $49k resistance levels. We even saw $46k. It made me nervous about whether we would see another serious decrease. However, the price has started recovering and breaking these resistance levels. And it broke $50k resistance also in the last 24 hours. I believe that the rise will continue and we can see $55k in not much time.

Hopefully that's going to be the case, people seems to have taken profit at 50k and sold most of their coins so the prices have gone down again but it's a temporary thing, the prices will bounce back again which it does over and over again and there's still 4 months left so bitcoin still have a lot of time to go up and surprise us.

I think Bitcoin is on the rise again. The bitcoin price has touched the $50k mark at the moment. The price increase this time reached its highest level more than three months ago. This increase was predicted to continue to increase and continue to increase until the end of the year.

Every investment has risks, but maybe the level of risk of investing in Bitcoin is quite high. So we really have to do risk management properly,
so that the decisions we take do not make us suffer losses. If we want big profits, we must also be brave to face big risks. Now that Bitcoin is
in a bullish trend, its price is starting to rise slowly and is trying to get past the $50k price. We should not miss the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin,
if we look at Bitcoin's performance in 2021, which is very extraordinary. Like Bitcoin it will be very profitable for long-term investments,
so it would be better if holding Bitcoin at least until the end of this year.

Lets not be too impatient because we cant really just see a rally on a continous basis considering that there would really be lots of take profit levels specially on 50k which is its understandable that there would be some

pullbacks that would happen along the way but at least we've seen that it do able to sustain its position despite on having that kind of rejection on that recent resistance but presuming that this is the next line to be broken
then it wouldnt really take too much time.

Of course we do really need that volume on breaking those lines but we dont know on when the demand would kick or sets in.

Or volume, if we see greater volume in the next coming days then we might see another upside around $52k. But currently, we have that kind of momentum to go and even try $49k again.

Yes, we have regained the 2 day average, and if we have enough volume to push then those resistance will be broken along the line this week. So I'm hoping to see more upside than pressure.

Well I think bitcoin is now rising and it has a possibility that it will continue to rise before year end so it is the best time to hold if you buy btc at 29k$ then you have now earnings but if you want it big then just hold till the price become double to make double earnings, although it is a risky idea but sometimes we also need to do risky decision to earn big profit.

This is not just a luck I guess, we all took the risk on investing in cryptocurrency, we believe on this technology and imagine those who invested a decade ago and still holding their Bitcoin, that’s pure dedication and a risk taker that’s why they deserve the money they have right now. The price starts to recover again, we are in a good shape that anytime can break the resistance so watch out as we continue the up trend this quarter and hopefully until the end of the year.

Momentum is quite a large part of a move, I need to weigh this better myself but imagine if stumbling down a hill its harder to get a foothold again while already moving with speed.   Similar I think we have momentum when rising that should be referenced as to the continuation in price rises.   All today we've been trading above the 12hr average and also regained the 2 day average, while we keep hold all of these we should assume price remains with pressure upwards despite possible resistance to overcome.

Indeed.

Almost there 

Imagine in the next few years , this question from 10 years ago will be happening ?

damn how lucky those who bought back from that same year as they have not only story to tell but also experience to share with their Grandchildren .

How True.   

I had to do a double check as i thought he was talking about ltc... lolz

You are freaking me out necro ing such an old thread ..I suppose the "stop falling" theme is appropriate :/ 

I wonder where evolve went to.

A lottery ticket is a poor analogy. We can accurately guess the odds - perhaps they are even published - and we know that the odds are against us. But unless collecting bitcoin for their utility, a rational holder must believe the (chance of loss times)(amount lost) < (chance of gains)(amount gained). A lotto investor throws rational risk tolerance to the wind but a bitcoin junkie is an existentialist who believes he knows better than the market. Because the odds are not published, we can not say whether he is right until after he sells.

I think you missed the real reason why they are falling.

The reason is!!!!



Satoshi Namamoto (AMD/ATI Marketing CEO) have announced a successful end to his marketing project with all the 5XXX and 6xxx cards sold out and new 7XXX ones that are different in design. and they are closing the bitcoin project!

You can't know whether the lottery ticket you're thinking of buying is going to be the winning one, in much the same way as you have no idea how much your bitcoins will be worth in a few months' time. Choosing to buy a lottery ticket is actually more analagous to leaving bitcoins from mining unconverted than to converting them to USD.

You'll be dead in a hundred years' time. More importantly, no-one just stuffs dollars under their mattress and just leaves them there for a century, and while the dollar may be losing value it's at a slow and consistent rate. If the dollar was losing its value at the rate bitcoins have been lately there'd be mass panic.

I don't disagree with your point; but it's not as bleak as you say.

A friend of mine was trying to organize an event in Las Vegas from the UK.  He (I personally think unwisely) used paypal for transferring money internationally.  Paypal suddenly decided to semi freeze the account, with the organisation money already transferred in.  There was no way to get it out (i.e. to return to the initial state) and no way to pay for the things they wanted to pay for.  Note: there was no scam going on, this was someone trying to pay for things with his own money.  Paypal wrecked a planned Las Vegas event because they happen to be the man in the middle.

While being told that story I couldn't help thinking that Bitcoin has already won; PayPal are hated, and they keep doing things that make them more hated.  Even if Bitcoin had nothing for sale other than national currencies it would be incredibly useful.

So.. in answer to your questions (1) I can transfer value anywhere in the world, close to instantaneously and reliably.  Regardless of the current exchange rate -- there just has to be enough volume.  (2) Easier than with a credit card?  Well, it's easier to perform these transfers without having 2.5% gouged from you.

(3) I admit, it's not quite everday, general-public types of use, but those will come in time.

I, and another friend are already using bitcoins to settle those minor between-friends debts that friends often have.  "Lend me 20 quid would you, I haven't been to a cash machine yet."  "No need to lend, here's a couple of BTC (tip, tap, tip tap on smartphone) and we're even."  "You get the cinema tickets", etc, etc.  If I can just persuade my friend the landlord at the local pub to take bitcoins that will be 99% of my weekly cash needs replaced with bitcoin.

I actually think that the bitcoin community obsesses a bit much about there not yet being lots of vendors that we can point at.  Bitcoin is already better than cash/card for a great many purposes that don't have anything to do with buying products.

As I write this, bitcoin's value is struggling to stay above US$13.  If you're wondering why bitcoin's value is slowly but surely deflating you only need to ask these questions:

1. What can I do with bitcoins?  What can I buy?
2. What can I buy that's easier with bitcoins than using a credit card?
3. How does the general public view bitcoins?  Do they see it as a get-rich-quick scheme?

The answer to all three questions does not bode well for bitcoin's short term value.

If I work at paid employment for dollars (mining), and save some of my net income to spend later (not selling), therefore I am speculating dollars following the above logic.  Better go and tell the savings industry they are rampant speculators  

Well, hells bells. Imagine how much they are missing out on by non buying the lottery ticket with the winning number. Opportunity cost is what you lose by not doing the next best thing. What makes you think you know what the next best thing is?

If you don't want to add to a losing position, then why the hell would you want dollars?  They've lost 96% value in the last hundred years.

Right. If you're mining, but not selling, you're speculating.

I think you might be suffering from a misconception. The amount miners are risking by holding onto their bitcoins isn't their electricity costs, it's how much they could make if they sold immediately because that's the amount they potentially lose out on. (This is a fairly common fallacy; from an economic perspective it's irrational and no-one should act this way, but people don't act the way economists think they should.)

We accept your apology.

The same way we're afraid of you?  Loser. 

Wow. Another stalwart among the Bitcoin die hards. You guys are a smart bunch. If I was the Fed, I'd be very afraid.

Oh? I like how you summarized it - since it was so elegant. I thought 'elegant' ideas would be easily expressed?

Oops, I see, you're just treading in someone's footsteps, like an annoying toy dog. Here rover, fetch!

So are you saying that trolls are folks who are able to shut your argument down completely and elegantly? That "troll" left a boot mark on your forehead when he stomped you.

it's not a losing position unless your electricity costs now more than you can get for your coins now.  There's a reason why we account for capital costs and expenses separately.

I (and many others) define speculation as exchanging an accepted currency for some commodity at some price hoping for a larger amount of the original (or equivalent) currency in the future.  The key point here being: miners are increasing their speculative position when they hoard.  Adding to a losing position.

You're speculating either way. If you sell immediately, you're speculating that the price won't go up.  If you bought gear specifically for mining, you're speculating with your capital also. Even if you're mining with equipment you already owned, you're speculating with your time and your electricity.

You're speculating if you buy, hold or sell dollars.  Nothing is without risk. You have to judge the risk/reward ratio, your risk tolerance, and your time window.  It's all relative.

i've emphasized your problem right there...

aside from the fact that nothing is ever safe to invest in, you're just looking at things in a far too short-sighted fashion.  if you're not in Bitcoin for the long term, you're going to lose your shirt.  and if you're not participating in the economy (i.e., buying stuff from merchants), that's what you've earned.

now... go to http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/ .  set it to log scale, one year.  look at the first couple weeks of june, this year.  look at what happened before, and at what has happened since.  got it?

now... take a look at the first couple weeks of november 2010.  and at the befores and afters.  see any similarities?

it's a long term play, Houdini.  if you got no patience, get out.

Right. If you're mining and not selling, you're speculating.

It is a little amusing how one of the adages of successful trading is "Never add to a losing position."  In effect that's what miners do when hoarding instead of selling as prices decline.

Back to the OP: $30/btc caused lots and lots and lots of people to buy mining gear.  5 series ATI cards pretty much sold out world over and we're looking at over a tripling of difficulty over a month -- 2/3 of the current mining capacity is less than a month old.

Now the people with a 20% credit card loans for the hardware (judging from mining forum posts many of the new rigs were built very inefficiently) and power bills to pay are sweating blood and selling everything they mine at 15% of their original profit calculations.  I am wagering a much higher portion of mined bitcoins is being sold rather than hoarded today vs a month ago.

Plus people with a large amount of bitcoins would be foolish not to sell a portion at these levels and diversify and/or reinvest.

Oh, and finally: everyone is still very bullish while prices decline.  Many people expect a $100 price by end of year.  We're nowhere near a capitulation/bottom/stability.

Trust me when I say - I don't.

Got to keep your troll quota up, eh?

If the only purpose of hats is to sell them for real money, then people would have lots of hats until they decided to sell them for money.  At which point the bagholders (hatholders in your example) would subsidize the profits of everyone who got out before them.  When the discussion is literally that you should invest more money into something so the value of it doesn't go down naturally, you're the sucker.

But hey, don't mind me.  Go invest more dollars so your bitcoins don't lose dollar value.  That always works in the real world.

What if everyone ran to the haberdashery, what would happen to hat prices?!

The problem with being a successful troll is you have to work at it. Really, you can come up with something better than that, you pedantic jackanape.

Yes! Finally it's Jalum time again

I could liquidate my entire holdings today and still book a considerable profit. Why would I have any grief?  I'm crying all the way to the bank.

Why are you even here if you think it's all going down? If you don't like the party, you can leave. You think you're ruining it, but you're actually just providing the entertainment. Thanks for that.

Oooo are we at the bargaining stage of grief now?  So now the discussion is how if all the bitcoiners just spent a little money to prop up their "investments", everything would work out?  Seriously?

Many are investing 10X that amount and new accounts are being registered all the time. I don't thinkit's unreasonable to assume that there's at least 40,000 people either mining and not selling, selling goods/services on line and saving the proceeds or buying on other exchanges.  That means ~1/day required.

We could easily maintain that even with little growth until the bitcoin/block reward is reduced, but it's highly unlikely to be necessary.

You mention a bitcoin bubble? You get a bitcoin bubble comic!

Yeah - 300 coins per hour - 7000 per day - that is about $100 000 in current prices.  On one hand this is only about $2 daily for every mtgox user - I think most of us can afford that, but I am skeptical about the will to regularly put these $50 each month.

This is really a decimal point issue.  Right now mining produces 300 coins per hour.  In order to keep the price stable new people need to buy that many per hour.  Basically unless we increase the number of people inflation will eat our money.   We can't get new people because $17 seems like too much.  It is a psychological thing.  If the decimal point were moved two places we could tap whole new markets.  People with fancy phones would drop $10 to try it out.  "Oh I can get 60 bitcoins for $10, I'll try that".  "Oh I can get half of a bitcoin for $10, that doesn't sound fun"".

Congratulations. Meanwhile I just keep buying.

Miners are not dropping out - growth is still above 1% per day (in any other market, that is HUGE).  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/  Growth has slowed - that is all you can say at the moment.

What "should" be happening, if the various "nations" I have been developing "national currencies" for have any useful insight in the ways they plan to try to get their "national currencies" up and running, is...

1) Make sure to have a truly significant portion of the total number of coins so far made at some point in time.

2) Try to obtain a truly significant portion of the other currencies that people use to buy your type of coins.

3) Once you have truly significant "reserves" of "other currencies", start trying to "support" your type of coins by buying back, at less than you sold them for, any that anyone wants to sell.

This assumes the "nation" creating the currency actually plans to stick around and actually support its currency, instead of being just a fly by night nth-world micronation established mostly for the purpose of trying to 'con' other nations into accepting its ponz^H^H^H^Hcurrency long enough to raise a pile of loot to fade into the sunset with.

-MarkM-

my guess is that this weeks flat trading scared a few speculators into selling, dropping the price into the low 16's yesterday...thats causing a ripple effect and now there is a panic sale that will prob drive it down to mid or low 15's

i actually wish i had more usd in dwolla or on the exchange to buy more today...i spent my reserve cash on the low prices yesterday......my guess is the price will settle at 14-15 and go back up to 16-17 in the next few days. 

in any case, im keeping my money in....i could be wrong, but if i am, i haven't lost too much (never gamble what you cant afford to lose  )

At the current price and difficulty level, mining no longer really pays. Many complaints on the mining forums. Those with sunk costs in hardware may still be making some money, but it no longer pays to buy new hardware for mining. Most of the "miners" don't count the cost of floor space and staffing, but now, even as a marginal cost business, it's not that attractive. Miners are dropping out. In this situation, the difficulty should creep back down, but that happens slowly. Right now, Bitcoins seem to be priced near the cost of producing them.  That's the closest thing to a fundamental this market has.

The buy-side market depth on Mt. Gox is shrinking. They had around 40,000BTC of buy orders a few days ago, but now there are only 20,000.  This may simply reflect people pulling cash out of Mt. Gox. Probably a wise move.  Now that things have quieted down, the price is creeping back down into the $15 range on very thin trading.

Of course, there's no rational market for pricing Bitcoins. It's a pure speculation.

Hey, lardycake, don't pretend you ever had any bitcoin! I've been watching you and other trolls here. You better shut up.

Sorry I'm old. The only thing that image proves to me is that you know how to use the Resize tool.

Well, I should say thanks then... I bought a couple of those.

Great Post .. from mining economy to transaction economy ....

I just asked the same question several days ago here

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=24854.0

the question is .. will it survive ?

As for mining economy:

* Huge mining bounty.
* Huge mining community.
* Huge overall network security.
* Tiny neglect-able transaction fees.

BUT, for transaction economy:
* Will the transaction fees stay low enough to continue using this commodity as a sub-dollar Hawala medium ?

If yes then huge miners will cash-out leaving the system vulnerable to attacks can be made by them or any hacker network that can offer to utilize couple mining pools that we have right now.

If NO then the system will be less-business attractive with: no advantage in lower transaction fees, questionable anonymity, less security backed up by smaller mining community, delayed transactions, volatile sub-hour pricing .. etc.


* Will the mining community continue to be this large providing this amazing network safety ?


I am a BTC man ... and these questions to know more or to pin point near less-than-a-year issues.

also the price fell like a dollar

a few weeks ago it would go up and down a dollar every hour or so

Seems a whole lot of people are unwilling to wait until the program progresses beyond beta.  Which is fine if you're in to make a quick buck.

This is not to say the price won't plummet or anything, but lets see what happens once there are apps/vendors in place that make using BTC easy and simple. Even if BTC stagnates I think it'll be here for awhile.  

Regardless of speculation, I've invested nothing but my gaming time and have grown from 100 Mh/s to 1500 Mh/s with no out of pocket money.
I have some very decent capital that has resale value.  Even if the market crashes to nothing, the equipment will retain some of its value.

I'm a firm believer that value is only between two people at a particular moment in time.  
I haven't held any coins for longer than a couple of weeks.  I've made a steady income (even during the crash) from mining and will continue to do so as long as others are willing to buy at the moment I'm willing to sell.

A fool and his money are easily departed.  I look back and say "what money"...  

You're selling yours for $17 each.
You're telling people they're not worth $17 each.

Nice marketing

get real.  This pipe dreaam is why BTC is going down,  idiot speculators are holding the coins......who will be greater fool?  heres a hint it begins with an N.
youre holding the bag.

Hopefully, we are a part of history in the making...

Tell your grand kids about "When I was young, a single bitcoin could only buy you a couple of gallons of milk.  Now a single bitcoin can buy you a small country."

If I were the holder of many a bitcoin and I wanted to turn a significant portion into USD, I would not sell everything in one big splash, as this would significantly lower the prices. Instead I would use Dark Pools, where my order doesn't show up, and I would only sell a little at a time. This makes room for other ppl to buy while I am selling, leaving the price at status quo. If several entities are doing this move at the same time we see a slow decline in value.

I could imagine that this is what is happening right now. This is a fair thing and a natural phenomenon in an open market, especially after what we have experienced over the last few weeks. Over time this will evaporate, and we can continue 'normal' business.

My personal hope is that BTC stabilizes at some level and has a slow growth over time. Be it 5$, 10$ or 20$ a coin, I don't care. What is important is stability so we can get merchants and 'normal' people into bitcoin.

My own investment in BTC is about 200$ at 20$ a coin, and some mining. I am here in the hope of being part of the revolution of online payment.

I don't know why it's falling, but I'm glad it's falling. Bitcoin needs to be in the hands of people who think long term. The get rich quick crowd will not be missed.

The value of them is not constant when created and used in uneven ways.   So I guess then, same amount of miners, but 'slow down' ?

If you don't stop with that shit, the only thing you will BUY is new teeth!

Why should that matter? Rate of new coins is constant whether 1 miner or 1 million.

One hypothesis - all the buy orders since Monday (on MtGox - after all it is still setting the price) were mostly from guys that had the money there from previous sells, they wanted to buy cheaply after the crush, but there were so many of them that the price quickly got back to basically the same level as it was before the crash, and so they did not want to buy any more.  There were in particular a few very big buy orders that disappeared quickly when the price dropped in any vicinity of them - showing that they were just a bluff and most probably the buyers were at the same time selling at a higher price.  Currently it is clear that no many more bank transfers arrived this week to MtGox and as always on weekend there will not be any of them so the price most probably will be falling on the weekend, so it's better to sell today then tomorrow.  Then the question is if on Monday it will be any better - but the articles you can find on the Internet lately are not too positive towards bitcoin so the situation looks pretty gloom this weekend.

My quick guess, people have seen BTC in the news.  Think they are cashing in.  Short term people are slowly and slowly exiting, bad Bitcoin news stories all the time coupled with the fact that there simply does seem to be too many people mining.  Long term people who are actually invested in stuff will stay, maybe even cashed out a little bit knowing they are going to buy back cheaper because of how the people are exiting.

Also more people using more markets, those trading fees add up!  It has actually fucked the market up lol

Because my funds are already in AlertPay... not coming from a credit card.

It would be a very quick and simple 'send' if someone wanted to trade me for AP funds... about 900 USD available.

Well I am selling 55 BTC, but pray tell enlighten me, why would you pay that much when you buy cheaper on TH or MTG ?

No problem, will you take Paypal or AlertPay?

If AlertPay, I could buy as many as 40 btc right now... unless you weren't serious.

Sure if you'll give me 17.5$ !

TO ME TO ME TO ME

SELL SELL SELL

Weekend?

For the last two weeks every larger fall in value has been followed by an equivalent rise in value after it, only a bit slower (taking hours instead of minutes). I figured it was boomerang-like with a reasonable chance, and therefore safe to invest in.
Now the bitcoin has fallen from ~17 to about ~16.5 and it looks like it's slowly falling further instead of rising ? What do you figure is going on and why, and when will it be back to 17+ ? And should those who have BTC sell out in expectance of an even greater fall or wait for it to rise ?