Topic: Why I think XBT price may go up a lot during Aug 1 for at least a few hours (Read 366 times)
July 15, 2017, 08:35:18 PM
I think you got me wrong. I'm not talking about BEFORE Aug 1. I'm talking about during Aug 1 (or, to be more precise, about the moment right after BIP148).
July 15, 2017, 08:27:48 PM
I think most are expecting the opposite to happen. People will be trying to sell bitcoins more than buying (in order to hold fiat for Aug 1st) but who really knows in the end. You can have as many theories as you want but a lot of the time bitcoin will perform the exact opposite of your normal stock split or whatnot.
July 15, 2017, 07:38:46 PM
I'm not a big fan of speculation, and even more against speculation without analyzing any data (like most users here seem to love to do). But that's exactly what this is about. I have made absolutely no analysis, and could be completely wrong.
People are being advised to avoid trading during Aug 1 and for a while after that. IF people who hold average (or higher) amounts of bitcoin follow this advice (and I believe most will do), those trying to buy bitcoin (and many may be unaware of BIP148) will be faced with low supplies during this period. I don't know how high will be the demand (and that's as important as knowing how low the supply will be), so I could be totally wrong here. But if the demand is high enough, we may see yet another bubble.
It shouldn't last very long, and I wouldn't trust this moment as a chance to make a huge profit because as soon as the price starts rising it's likely lots of people will try to sell, thus quickly lowering the price again. It's way too risky, and may actually cause the price of bitcoin to drop even further before it finally starts rising and stabilizing again, thus returning to its intrinsic value.
This may (or may not) be an unstable period for bitcoin. Again, I have no idea what I'm saying, so you would have to be really dumb to blindly take my word here.
People are being advised to avoid trading during Aug 1 and for a while after that. IF people who hold average (or higher) amounts of bitcoin follow this advice (and I believe most will do), those trying to buy bitcoin (and many may be unaware of BIP148) will be faced with low supplies during this period. I don't know how high will be the demand (and that's as important as knowing how low the supply will be), so I could be totally wrong here. But if the demand is high enough, we may see yet another bubble.
It shouldn't last very long, and I wouldn't trust this moment as a chance to make a huge profit because as soon as the price starts rising it's likely lots of people will try to sell, thus quickly lowering the price again. It's way too risky, and may actually cause the price of bitcoin to drop even further before it finally starts rising and stabilizing again, thus returning to its intrinsic value.
This may (or may not) be an unstable period for bitcoin. Again, I have no idea what I'm saying, so you would have to be really dumb to blindly take my word here.
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